Russia-Ukraine War as Teaser of World War III: Essay

With the start of the war, Russia-Ukraine military struggle has taken a genuine turn after Kyiv guaranteed that it has destroyed Moscow's biggest warship conveyed in the dark ocean with two Neptune missile assaults. The nation has additionally delivered the photos of the assault and from that point forward the Russian state media is tending to the Russia-Ukraine struggle as the start of the ‘World War III’.

Historical Events: Trigger of the Russia-Ukraine War

71% of the Ukraine population believe that their country is already at war with Russia. The roots of the war are hidden in history and hence before starting any kind of discussion over this topic. Ukraine and America have been opponent in many conflicts and Kiev happened to be more powerful than Moscow sometimes. Vladimir Putin has been obsessed with Ukraine, so starting with 9th century, there was a state called Kievan Rus where the Slavic people lived. The Kievan Rus was ruled by Grand Prince Volodymyr and it was called Vladimir in Ukrainian, these are also the names of the presidents of the two countries. A lot of things changed in the past centuries, Ukraine was under Russian rule. Russia was most powerful among the 15 republics and Ukraine was the second most.

Ukraine was the rival of the United States during the Cold War. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine became independent, and so as Russia. In exchange of guaranteed Ukraine’s security and promise to respect its sovereignty by Moscow, Ukraine gave its nuclear arsenal to Russia in 1994. They signed the Budapest Memorandum along with these countries. Now coming to 2013, when Victor Yanukovych was the president of Ukraine, he had reputation for heavy corruption and over all these things, he rejected a European Union deal, the deal which would have meant greater integration with the EU. After the deal of a $15 billion, to many Ukrainians it felt like being sold to Moscow. So, protests broke out. They were called ‘Euromaidan’ because these protests were about Europe handmaiden because this happened in Kiev’s, which is today known as Independent Square.

The Crimea Incident (2014)

After the incident of EU, the protestor wanted that the deal must be signed and Yanukovych must step down. In February 2014, there was a fall for Yanukovych government and also the president was driven out of Ukraine and he fled to Russia. Not every Ukrainian was pleased with this. The minority group of individuals within the Russian speaking east wanted Yanukovych to remain. With this incident in Ukraine, Russia was very angry as they lose their puppet. To retrieve matters, Moscow took over Crimea.

Now talking about Crimea, Crimea may be a peninsula, located within the sea. The Soviet leader-statesman transferred Crimea to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic from the Russian Soviet Socialist Republic. Khrushchev hoped that the transfer would strengthen brotherly ties between the Ukrainian and Russian people. Both Russia and Crimea were a part of the Union, that the transfer didn’t affect much.

With the independence of Ukraine in 1991, peninsula was given special autonomy and it absolutely was home to Russian military bases. Moscow also promised to respect the autonomy of Crimea. Majority of the Russian people wanted that Crimea shouldn't are allowed to affix Ukraine. In 2014, when Yanukovych was forced to depart power from Ukraine, Russian military began seizing government buildings in Crimea. For Putin this was Crimea’s liberation. For the remainder of the planet, this was Crimea’s annexation. Now the main target shifted to eastern Ukraine, where Russia started to seize the territory. Ukrainian forces didn’t launch any offensive activities initially but on July 17th 2014, when a flight carrying 298 people were shot down, Ukrainian forces decided to induce these rebels out and hence the separatists began losing ground, that the Russian army stepped in and hence they invaded eastern Ukraine and fought alongside the rebels. With this there started a series of talks between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the West, and this resulted within the Minsk accords. This was first signed in 2014, either side agreed on ceasefire and military withdrawal, Ukraine now agreed to carry elections within rebel-held areas.

Ukraine also remains at war. Its forces are fighting the rebels within the east. Rebel leaders are ruling the two regions, together they're referred to as the Donbass region. Russia has once more sent its troops, now they are standing right at the border.

Involvement of North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)

Talking about North Atlantic Treaty Organization, it’s a military alliance. Ukraine wanted to join NATO, but Putin wanted NATO to exclude Ukraine and every former Soviet state. But there’s a lot hidden in the history.

When Putin annexed Crimea, his approval ratings were very high, keeping the nationalistic sound helped the Russian president annexing parts of Ukraine and it also helped Putin restore Russia’s superpower image. Many Russians took Ukraine’s independence as a mistake, but they confuse this with the thing that Russia ruled Ukraine. This is true that Russia ruled Ukraine, but they remained barely independent and it was for a brief period before WWI. For rest of the history, Ukraine was under Russia. It’s also true that one in six Russian is an ethnic Russian and one in three speaks Russian as a native language. So, Putin is right, when he says “Historically”. Claims against Ukraine based on colonial history is wrong. It will be like Britain claiming India. Reifying of Ukraine was done by Russian leader Katharine the Great. Ethnic Russians were shipped to this part of the world. Schools were also told to teach Russian language. By 1800, the Ukrainian language was banned. Millions of people of eastern Ukraine were killed, in the 1940s, the ethnic tartars were relocated. They too were replaced with Russians. There lies a reason why eastern Ukraine has so many native Russian speakers, this is due to the design made in that way. Eastern Ukraine was always dear to Russia, it has coal iron, fertile land etc. It was once said that Russians and Ukrainians are one people. Maximum percentage of people reject this thought. Now talking about the current Ukrainian president. Talking about the current Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. In 2019, he came to power following a landslide victory. Zelensky frankly opposes Russian occupation of eastern Ukraine. Today Volodymyr represents the pulse of Ukraine. Vladimir Putin wants to be the man who revived Russian imperialism. He does not realize the world has moved on.

Background Analysis of Both the Countries

Talking about the background of the two countries, Russia and Ukraine are the two biggest nations in Eurasia. Neighbors were essential for the 15 Soviet republics that made up the USSR. The breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine turned into an autonomous nation and limited association with Russia. After Ukraine’s 2014 revolution of dignity, which saw months-long fights eventually bring down favorable to Moscow Ukrainian president Victor Yanukovych.

The continuous battling there has killed in excess of 14,000 individuals, as per Kyiv, and uprooted millions. Russia and Ukraine have had a problematic history that dates back to the 10th century. Russia and Ukraine have similar cultural origins. However, both countries have evolved distinct cultural and political identities over time. While Kyiv has rejected Moscow's attempts to impose its dominance over the country, Moscow has maintained that Ukraine has always been a part of Russia.

Despite the hatred between the two countries, Ukraine was a member of the Soviet Union for more than seven decades. Several times in the last two decades, Kyiv has accused Moscow of interfering in its domestic affairs. We go over the history of the two countries with difficult relations.

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Military Capabilities

The Russian Armed Forces are one of the world's biggest military powers, with around 1,000,000 deployment ready faculty, which is the world's fifth-biggest, and no less than 2 million hold staff. Russia positions in the main five countries which burn through a large portion of their GDP on their military. As per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia burned through $61.7 billion on its tactical which represented 11.4 percent of government spending. In correlation, Ukraine burned through $5.9 billion on its tactical which represented 8.8 percent of government spending. In a no holds barred examination of the tactical capacities of Ukraine and Russia, Russia dwarfs Ukraine in pretty much every viewpoint. As indicated by Global Fire Power, Russia is the second most remarkable nation militarily, while Ukraine is positioned 22 out of 140 countries.

Global Impact Due to This War

When Russia invaded Ukraine, no one anticipated how long the fight would go or how severe the repercussions would be in Europe and for the rest of the world. However, as the war enters its third month, the economic consequences of the conflict are becoming clearer, and the outlook is not encouraging.

Set against a backdrop of rising food and energy prices, as well as disrupted supply chains as a result of the coronavirus pandemic, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is exacerbating supply and demand tensions, harming consumer sentiment and threatening global economic growth.

Tense in the Market

Global financial markets are still focused on the war as it enters a second phase, with heavy violence erupting in the country's east, with analysts predicting that the 'battle for Donbas' will determine the war's conclusion. Investors are concerned about rising inflation and its impact on global GDP; the International Monetary Fund forecasts 7.7% inflation in the United States this year and 5.3 percent in the eurozone. Investors are selling bonds due to rising prices, pushing yields higher, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 2.94 percent on Tuesday, the highest level since late 2018.

Global Growth Hit

Whatever happens on the front lines in the coming days and weeks, the conflict's shock waves will continue to ripple around the world, with both the World Bank and the IMF downgrading their global growth predictions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global growth forecasts for 2022 and 2023, claiming that the economic fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine will “proliferate widely, adding to price pressures and compounding key policy concerns”. Meanwhile, the World Bank dropped its global growth prediction for 2022 by nearly a whole percentage point, from 4.1 percent to 3.2 percent, citing the strain on the global economy caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Increase in Food Prices

The war is now creating a looming threat to our global food supply, as it collides with other disturbances such as supply-chain strain, inflation, and the pandemic. The Ukraine–Russia region is regarded as one of just a few global 'breadbaskets' (or major food producers), and it plays an important role not only as a provider of main staples such as wheat, but also as a major fertilizer exporter. Six breadbaskets supply around 60 to 70 percent of global agricultural commodities when together. In a scenario where those markets are becoming increasingly tight and integrated, the Ukraine–Russia region accounts for around 30% of global wheat exports and 65% of global sunflower exports.

Current Status of the War

Russia continues to Mount offensive in Eastern Ukraine as the battle for the Donbass region intensifies Moscow. Shelved over 40 tons of the region. The water nation is now fighting to save its separators claim twin cities.

Ukraine claims that Moscow has threatened to shut the last main escape route for civilians trapped in the path of its invasion. The shelling has destroyed a train facility which was a hub for supplies and evacuations from Donetsk. Russia has poured thousands of troops into the region in an attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces holding out in the city of Cuervo Donetsk and its twin Luhansk. Now earlier this week, the Russian bag donors People’s Republic claimed that its forces took control of the town, replaced the Ukrainian flag with the Russian flag. Russian assault in the Eastern region comes after the Kremlin failed to seize the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and the country's second largest city of Kharkiv.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had already warned against Moscow's bid to destroy the industrial Donbass region. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed decrees simplifying the process of acquiring Russian citizenship and passport for residents of Ukraine’s Russian occupied the Kherson region. The decree marks a further step towards racist of the two regions. Putin’s move extends a scheme available to residents of еру Donetsk-Luhansk region, where Moscow has issued around 8000 passports since 2019. Russia claimed full control of the region in mid-March holds partisan region, region to the northeast as well. Russian media claims that President Putin also visited a Moscow military hospital to speak with soldiers wounded in the war. Putin was accompanied by a state minister. Well, Russia has very much continued its bombardment of the Donbass region, and it's still trying to encircle the city, Donetsk key industrial city in that area. The latest we've heard from the Ukrainian military is that around 40 towns in that region of Luhansk have been targeted by Russian artillery. It says that 47 civilian sites, including 38 homes and a school, have been targeted, and as a result, five civilians have been killed and around about twelve have been wounded. If this is true, it really does play into that description of Russia using a scorched Earth approach to take the east by using artillery and airfare to make this area as dangerous as possible. Many have been trapped underground in basements and in bomb shelters hiding since the war really broke out. And Russia has been making small gains in the Donbass. But all this has come at a price. We’ve already heard that Russia has potentially lost the same or a number in the same area as the number that the Soviet Union lost in that nine years war with Afghanistan. Now what we're hearing is that the UK's Ministry of Defense says that Russia's airborne forces are largely professional force, has taken heavy losses as well because of key strategic failures at the hostile airport in Kiev in March and also the stored progressing Izium in April. And all of this has really been brought about by poor management and tactics. We’ve heard from analysts and experts who have basically said that if Russia were to be effective moving forward in the east, they would need to resupply and redeploy after taking Mariupol. But commanders have very much wanted to show the Kremlin that they can take key military objectives, and that's why we've seen further advancement in the east at the moment. Now, what I'm trying to understand here is the implications of this. Well, a large part of Ukrainian culture is based in Russia, and of course, being a former Soviet Union state, Vladimir Putin is largely doing this, it seems, as a political move to try and take as many Ukrainians away from Ukraine and towards Russia. But really another political movement that we've seen here that is a massive part of this war and a massive part of what's going on right now is this war of attrition that's really being built around the Black Sea. Now, Russia has basically stopped food exports from getting out of the Black Sea and so much of the world the UN says that much of the world relies on grain and wheat from Ukraine to live. And if that grain doesn't get out, then plenty will. The office of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, has put an offer on the table, a compromise, almost saying that if you lift economic sanctions will allow this grain out. And so all of this, the passports and the holding of food, it's all part of a political but also a strategic move to maneuver Ukraine into some kind of compromise to come up with a deal to potentially end this war. Right. All right, Chris, thank you. So much for joining us with all the updates on this. Ban is now available in your country.

Could Russia-Ukraine War Have Been Avoided?

As Day 25 of Russia's full-fledged invasion of Ukraine approaches, the world community is increasingly displaying sympathy with the war-torn eastern European country. The richest countries should join the plan, according to Poland's Prime Minister, because they 'overslept' the moment it was needed to stop Vladimir Putin's onslaught against Kyiv. Today's Ukraine is gripped by terror, but it is also distinguished by the valor of the fighting soldiers and the nation's optimism for the restoration of an independent state after the conflict.

Conclusion

It can be said that the Russia-Ukraine war have been prevented if the responsible entities such as if NATO stopped its expansionist policies in eastern Europe to encircle Russia and focused more on the Indo-Pacific. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy could have shown more maturity by understanding that NATO has nothing to lose in such a war, whereas if Vladimir Putin took more of a diplomatic approach rather than going on a full-scale war and the Russia’s civilians had shown the guts of getting a proper democracy in the country rather than keeping seated Putin as virtually the president for life. In conclusion, each party is equally responsible and all this could have been if they took more of a matured stance. Finishing it with a quote.

“Peace is far more preferable to war, I believe that peace is the only path to true security and there is no question that the only path to peace is through negotiations” – Barack Obama.

References

1. 1. Book: ‘Russia Ukraine: The Origin of the Untold Story of Russia-Ukraine War’. Jerry Applebaum.
2. Web Article: ‘Everything You Need to Know About the 2014 Ukraine Crisis’. Sep 3, 2014, Vox.
3. ‘Gravitas Plus | Explained: The Russia-Ukraine Crisis’. Palki Sharma Upadhyay, 20 Feb 2022, Wion.
4. ‘Russia’s Next War Will Be Against Finland and Sweden’ | Putin’s Warning After Ukraine War’. Sir Prashant Dhawan, 26 Feb 2022, World Affairs.
5. ‘The Ukraine Conflict: All You Need to Know - KOFI TUTU’. KOFI TUTU, 5 June 2022, https://www.kofitutu.com/the-ukraine-conflict-all-you-need-to-know
6. ‘North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO)’. Investopedia, 31 May 2022, https://www.investopedia.com/north-atlantic-treaty-organization-nato-5295514
7. ‘The Russification - Usman Aman’s Lounge’. Usman Aman’s Lounge, 1 Mar. 2022, https://www.usmanaman.com/the-rus-conflict
8. D’Anieri, Paul. ‘Conclusion: Ukraine, Russia, and the West ‒ from Cold War to Cold War' (Chapter 8). Cambridge University Press: 01 November 2019.