To understand the nuclear crisis of North Korea, it is important that we categorize it into 3 parts: strategic interests, political factors and future hurdles.
Strategic Interests
Strategic interests observed by North Korea - we have both realistic and liberalist observers. In realistic terms the need for nuclear weapons is for its regime survival and security, besides to have a military influence at both regional and global levels. This means that the regime opposes denuclearization and wants the world to recognize it as a nuclear power. In liberalist terms, it is for economic development and survival. This means no war but peace. Liberalists observe that maybe eventual denuclearization will happen at the end and ultimately no future nukes.
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Strategic interest observed by the USA – in my interpretation of this issue, I can say USA has two options: isolationists and internationalists. Isolationists policy needs mainland security. This is for its own security and a deal between USA and North Korea is needed in this case. Maybe they can let go North Korea by allowing to have few nukes but a strict no to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). On the other hand, internationalist policy means the United States wants proliferation. This is because of the threats North Korea poses to the United States and its regional allies and also to have global and regional influence. This measure also brings in balance against China. USA will have to take action on North Korea for its nuclear ambitions and may ask for complete verifiable irreversible denuclearization.
Strategic interest observed by South Korea – in realistic approach, South Korea says no subjugation (partial invasion) to North Korea. Straight forwardly, Seoul wants complete verifiable irreversible denuclearization. Coming to progressive approach, South Korea wants peace with North Korea. However, there is a problem with USA. Being its ally, USA wants South Korea to act as per say of its rule book while dealing with North Korea. Many progressives are of the opinion that USA has itself involved deeply into Inter-Korea relations to such extent that it may no longer help South Korean interests. This means South Korea is looking to have greater independence in what to say of its internal matters. Maybe develop some nukes? Strategic interest of Russia and China – both maintain ‘No War/Status Quo’. They officially support denuclearization. However, North Korea with nukes may not be a bad idea for China and Russia as this helps them have balance on USA.
Political Factors
There is a huge pressure on the shoulders of the United States to home deliver goods. Donald Trump needs a progress card to show at home all the success he made. Be it November midterm election or 2020 re-election campaign, Trump will take a big slice of it should he manage to get North Korea to US favorable talks. There is also a historical legacy in it. Donald Trump became the first sitting US president to hold talks with North Korean leader. He crossed DMZ into North Korea and made history, met Kim Jong-un 3 times within a very short period gap. All these acts have brought historical legacy to Trump.
Political factors of Seoul are polls, 2022 march election, historical and nationalist legacy. Elections are soon to take place in South Korea and Mr. Moon Jae-in has to deliver his promise of showing warmer relationship with North Korea. Previous attempts by former South Korean presidents to normalize relations with NK went ineffective. However, Moon Jae-in did treasure little success in having good relationship with his neighbor through multiple meetings and high-level exchanges including friendly participation by NK in Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. Moon Jae-in bagged his historic legacy by this.
Future Hurdles and Conclusion
One of the most important questions – is North Korea really willing to give up its nuclear power? If so, why has the negotiation been prolonged? Any proper way to check NK’s real intention? which one should happen first, denuclearization or unification? Joint military exercises by US and South Korea remain a barrier for NK. This extended deterrence by US to be continuously challenged. Realists strongly want complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization. However, we don’t know if CVID is really realistic and we cannot guess what will happen if it is not feasible. Can SK and US accept a controlled NK with nukes?
Seoul spoke publicly about economic cooperation with NK, so is it okay if SK ask USA to stop sanctions against North Korea? South Korea wants denuclearization. However, the current government is led by the progressive. Therefore, social interactions and economic cooperation are as much emphasized as political steps towards denuclearization. South Korean ‘chaebol’ leaders visiting Pyongyang and normalization of Kaesong Industrial Complex is a strong reference to the above point. Yes, denuclearization is important but cooperation and trust building is first to the present government.
Where does it go from here? Well, we can get two answers from Kim Jong-un – Yes and No. If Yes, additional negotiation will take place and North Korea will take denuclearization actions. This will lead to reporting and verification of the whole denuclearization process and finally US-NK relations normalized. If No, does it mean acceptance of existing nukes? If Yes, then NK will remain a nuclear power and the nuclear issue is not fully solved. If No, denuclearization through dialogue gets off and US will need new options to handle this problem. This takes the whole process back to the beginning or worst-case scenario, war.
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