University:
Arizona State University
Course:
SCM 300 | Global Supply Operations
Academic year:

2021
Views:

319

Pages:

5
Author:

Carissa Thomas

Global Supply Chain Simulation Debrief Debrief Questions Design Forecasting How did you decide which options to choose? How did you arrive at your forecasts? Production How did you decide which supplier(s) to use? How did you determine the order quantities and timing? Was it worth the extra $1 million for 3 month instead of 4 month lead time for the far supplier? Was it worth the extra $1 million for extra capacity (40 vs. 35) for the close supplier? How often did you use $2M change orders? Why? Did you buy $2M market information? Why or why not? Design Room mano Model Dermane MA Model aomated Monthly inspect off Selected cutiora Cadimmed impact of Selected Options on Per Unit Prof Mofe 1240 Aya Samt and the highentowk mands s Forecasting Room Congratulations, the design options for the two mobile phone lines have been specified. You will now have to predict the tota demand for sach product line, Your Fereastral what they belave demand will se fer the mobile phone lines. However, the hoant of yesur company is interested in your personal estimates as well. The sumbers you will forecast after entoring the forecasting room will not affect your production schedule, but they will help you later as you determine where and how to source your products. Model : Monthly Estimated Dormand May-December le thousands per month Average: 59 Stardard Dev. 11 Amarel Nys Lorenze claire eth Consen Unit Data with Options as Chosen costs one on estimose from the lowest-cost копост полцесturer Model A Model Unit Price $240.00 $28040 Unit Cest $165.00 $185.00 Unit Profit 575.00 505.00 Markwm1/08.50 Monthly Holding Cesz 55.50 $5.40 hat the am of the year, il medels loft stack wi Enter Your Demand Estimates Thuy matty stroof 2 Model : Manthly Estimated Demand May-December Combined Results: Weighted Average of Standardized Profit and Votes Takeaways Accurate forecasts Gather more data, especially individual forecasts Capture the standard deviation of the individual forecasts. A small amount of pre-launch information or actual demand can really improve forecasts Responsive supply Structurally aim to shorten lead times and increase reactive capacity Consider which products to produce with speculative/reactive capacity Appropriate inventory* There are incentives to produce more or less than the forecast Critical Ratio based on the cost of being under/over (e.g. stockout/markdown cost) provides intuition for when to overproduce/underproduce, and by how much Critical Ratio can also be used to set appropriate service levels for periodic review inventory policies "WARNING: These principles come from the "rnewsvendur pruttem," which cannot be fully appiled to determine the "optimal inventory the simulation since key assumptions are not realized ag, ability cany inventory and issue shange orders throughout the year, capacity constraints, supplier lead times. The intuition from the newsvendor problem using the underage/overage costs to set inventory targets-can the broadly applied is sptimue inverstary and be very close in optimal" Email me if you would like to know mare about the full theory 5

Global Supply Chain Simulation

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