What Can Account for Fluctuations in the Terms or Trade (Tables)

Table 1 Terms of Trade Volatility and Trade Structure Country/Region Developing Commodity Exporters (60) Fuel Exporters (15) Manufactures Exporters (4) Total (79) Terms of trade volatility Export shares Commod. Fuels Manuf. Import shares Commod. Fuels Manuf. Net export shares Commod. Fuels Manuf. 12.05 31.84 7.11 18.85 0.67 0.08 0.10 0.32 0.06 0.86 0.01 0.38 0.28 0.06 0.89 0.29 0.17 0.18 0.24 0.19 0.16 0.03 0.11 0.10 0.66 0.78 0.65 0.71 0.49 -0.10 -0.14 0.14 -0.11 0.82 -0.10 0.28 -0.39 -0.72 0.23 -0.42 Developed Commodity Exporters (8) Fuel Exporters (1) Manufactures Exporters (12) Total (21) 8.61 7.53 9.23 8.89 0.43 0.27 0.14 0.19 0.11 0.28 0.03 0.05 0.46 0.45 0.82 0.75 0.16 0.15 0.26 0.24 0.12 0.10 0.21 0.19 0.72 0.75 0.54 0.58 0.27 0.11 -0.12 -0.04 0.00 0.18 -0.17 -0.13 -0.26 -0.29 0.29 0.18 World Commodity Exporters (68) Fuel Exporters (16) Manufactures Exporters (16) 10.39 31.01 9.13 0.55 0.09 0.14 0.08 0.84 0.03 0.36 0.07 0.83 0.17 0.18 0.26 0.14 0.04 0.20 0.69 0.78 0.54 0.38 -0.09 -0.12 -0.06 0.80 -0.17 -0.33 -0.71 0.29 Major Industrial Countries Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States 9.26 8.01 8.66 9.98 14.54 6.82 7.84 0.35 0.22 0.09 0.10 0.04 0.13 0.25 0.12 0.03 0.03 0.05 0.00 0.10 0.04 0.53 0.75 0.88 0.84 0.96 0.77 0.71 0.13 0.22 0.26 0.31 0.38 0.28 0.18 0.08 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.37 0.12 0.19 0.79 0.59 0.58 0.47 0.25 0.59 0.63 0.22 0.01 -0.17 -0.21 -0.35 -0.15 0.07 0.04 -0.16 -0.13 -0.17 -0.36 -0.02 -0.16 -0.26 0.15 0.30 0.38 0.71 0.18 0.08 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from World Bank (1991). Notes: 1. Entries refer to export-weighted average of the group, except in the case of major industrial countries where the reported statistics are for individual countries. 2. Volatility is measured by the standard deviation of the annual growth rate. Country/Region Developing Commodity Exporters (60) Fuel Exporters (15) Manufactures Exporters (4) Total (79) Terms of trade (px-pm) Table 2 Volatility of relative prices Goods prices Import prices Export prices (pcm-pmm) (pfm-pmm) (pcm-pfm) (pcx-pmx) (pfx-pmx) (pcx-pfx) Country prices (pcx-pcm) (pfx-pfm) (pmx-pmm) 12.05 31.84 7.11 18.85 15.07 17.49 8.89 15.14 36.23 35.82 35.67 35.98 37.71 37.20 37.04 37.32 11.15 10.86 10.41 10.89 29.47 30.15 30.49 29.87 30.29 29.39 30.29 29.93 10.53 9.16 5.63 8.95 8.52 9.33 8.28 8.86 9.48 12.94 8.52 10.79 Developed Commodity Exporters (8) Fuel Exporters (1) Manufactures Exporters (12) Total (21) 8.61 7.53 9.23 8.89 11.85 14.74 12.62 12.51 28.61 32.47 29.56 29.13 25.44 36.98 25.03 25.09 11.11 11.05 12.18 11.91 30.82 30.97 29.65 29.99 31.05 30.35 30.63 30.73 5.67 5.94 4.80 4.92 29.93 10.90 25.28 25.88 7.42 5.71 6.57 6.42 World Commodity Exporters (68) Fuel Exporters (16) Manufactures Exporters (16) 10.39 31.01 9.13 13.52 17.40 12.43 32.56 35.70 29.86 31.79 37.19 25.62 11.13 10.87 12.09 30.12 30.18 29.69 30.65 29.42 30.61 8.19 9.04 4.84 18.86 9.39 24.45 8.49 12.69 6.66 Major Industrial Countries Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States 9.26 8.01 8.66 9.98 14.54 6.82 7.84 12.82 11.70 11.52 11.33 13.50 11.54 14.85 29.04 28.78 31.11 33.99 33.93 36.53 17.09 27.94 21.85 24.34 27.66 28.18 36.58 16.11 10.24 11.77 12.40 11.69 14.65 11.41 11.01 30.31 31.40 31.87 31.03 24.67 29.58 29.45 31.63 30.64 30.79 30.63 30.32 30.08 31.19 5.06 4.28 2.55 4.65 6.81 2.35 5.57 36.39 28.45 28.54 27.39 27.61 7.46 25.03 6.00 6.03 5.66 6.44 11.33 5.11 5.04 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from World Bank (1991). Notes: 1. Entries refer to export-weighted average of the group, except in the case of major industrial countries where the reported statistics are for individual countries. 2. Volatility is measured by the standard deviation of the annual growth rate. Country/Region Developing Commodity Exporters (60) Fuel Exporters (15) Manufactures Exporters (4) Total (79) Goods price (1) Table 3 Terms of trade variance decomposition Export shares for country prices Country Goods price components x price (αc -αcm)(pcm-pmm) (αfx-αfm)(pfm-pmm) (2) (3) (4) Country price components x x m x m x x m αc (pc -pc ) αf (pf -pf ) αm (pm -pm ) (7) (5) (6) x 0.41 0.77 0.13 0.52 0.59 0.23 0.87 0.48 0.27 0.00 -0.05 0.09 0.14 0.77 0.19 0.42 0.42 0.01 -0.01 0.16 0.00 0.21 0.00 0.09 0.16 0.01 0.88 0.23 Developed Commodity Exporters (8) Fuel Exporters (1) Manufactures Exporters (12) Total (21) 0.27 0.78 0.45 0.42 0.73 0.22 0.55 0.58 0.21 0.03 0.02 0.05 0.06 0.75 0.43 0.37 0.14 -0.02 0.02 0.04 0.34 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.25 0.16 0.48 0.43 World Commodity Exporters (68) Fuel Exporters (16) Manufactures Exporters (16) 0.34 0.77 0.44 0.66 0.23 0.56 0.24 0.00 0.02 0.10 0.77 0.42 0.29 0.01 0.02 0.17 0.20 0.04 0.21 0.02 0.50 Major Industrial Countries Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States 0.14 0.50 0.47 0.52 0.43 0.26 0.53 0.86 0.50 0.53 0.48 0.57 0.74 0.47 0.18 0.00 0.05 0.08 -0.11 0.19 0.03 -0.05 0.50 0.42 0.45 0.55 0.07 0.50 0.14 -0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.43 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.00 -0.01 0.10 0.30 0.43 0.47 0.42 0.57 0.72 0.35 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from World Bank (1991). Note: Entries refer to export-weighted average of the group, except in the case of major industrial countries where the reported statistics are for individual countries. Country/Region Developing Commodity Exporters (60) Fuel Exporters (15) Manufactures Exporters (4) Total (79) Goods price (1) Table 4 Terms of trade variance decomposition Import shares for country prices Country Goods price components Country price components x m x x m x m x m x x m price (αc -αc )(pc -pm ) (αf -αf )(pf -pm ) αc (pcx-pcm) αfm(pfx-pfm) αm (pm -pm ) (2) (4) (7) (3) (5) (6) 0.61 0.88 0.41 0.66 0.39 0.12 0.59 0.34 0.39 0.01 0.09 0.15 0.22 0.87 0.32 0.51 0.12 0.01 -0.02 0.05 -0.04 0.01 -0.05 -0.02 0.32 0.10 0.66 0.31 Developed Commodity Exporters (8) Fuel Exporters (1) Manufactures Exporters (12) Total (21) 0.14 0.72 0.37 0.32 0.86 0.28 0.63 0.68 0.10 -0.02 0.09 0.09 0.04 0.74 0.28 0.24 0.04 -0.01 0.02 0.03 0.35 0.03 0.29 0.32 0.46 0.27 0.31 0.33 World Commodity Exporters (68) Fuel Exporters (16) Manufactures Exporters (16) 0.38 0.87 0.38 0.62 0.13 0.62 0.25 0.01 0.09 0.13 0.86 0.28 0.08 0.01 0.02 0.15 0.01 0.27 0.39 0.11 0.33 Major Industrial Countries Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States 0.22 0.19 0.36 0.56 0.71 0.40 0.16 0.78 0.81 0.64 0.44 0.29 0.60 0.84 0.15 0.00 0.12 0.15 0.12 0.30 -0.01 0.07 0.19 0.24 0.41 0.60 0.10 0.16 0.05 -0.01 0.02 0.05 -0.03 0.07 0.01 0.29 0.48 0.31 0.16 0.17 -0.02 0.52 0.44 0.34 0.31 0.23 0.15 0.55 0.31 Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from World Bank (1991). Note: Entries refer to export-weighted average of the group, except in the case of major industrial countries where the reported statistics are for individual countries. Figure 1 The importance of goods price effects across countries Commodity Exporters Commodity Exporters Histogram Table 3 Cumulative histogram 1.0 Table 4 Fraction of group with goods price < x% 1.0 Fraction of group in decile 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Table 3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 10 20 % tot variance due to goods price 60 Fuel Exporters Cumulative histogram 70 80 90 100 90 100 90 100 1.0 Table 3 Table 4 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Table 3 Table 4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 10 20 % tot variance due to goods price 30 Table 4 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 60 70 80 Cumulative histogram 1.0 Fraction of group with goods price < x% Table 3 50 Manufactures Exporters Histogram 0.9 40 % tot variance due to goods price Manufactures Exporters Fraction of group in decile 50 Histogram 0.8 1.0 40 Fuel Exporters 0.9 Fraction of group in decile 30 % tot variance due to goods price Fraction of group with goods price < x% 1.0 Table 4 0.9 Table 3 Table 4 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-100 % tot variance due to goods price 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 % tot variance due to goods price