Optimal Gradualism Tables

Table 1: Calibration for the decline in routine jobs over 1985–2007. Panel I. Islands and technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Data & moments, Cortes (2016) Estimated objects Occupation Employment share 1985 Wage decline 85–07 Incidence Size disrupted islands, νo(x) Share disrupted, so(x) S−curve parameters {πx , κx } Clerical jobs 10% -14.4% 86.1% 5.6% 56.3% {0.3, 1.0615} 18.5% -30.1% 71.1% 16.0% 86.6% {0.3, 1.7104} Sales jobs 5% -11.9% 18% 2.46% 49.1% {0.3, 11.325} Handling jobs 4% -40.8% 96.4% 3.98% 99.4% {0.3, 1.3335} Production jobs Panel II. Elasticities, reallocation rate, and households. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Elasticity of substitution Reallocation rate per year σ = 0.85 α0 = 2.7% From literature on polarization (see Goos et al., 2014) Calibrated to match average incidence of 71% Inverse elasticity of intertemporal substitution γ=2 Standard macro calibration. Discount rate and interest rate r = ρ = 5% Standard macro calibration. Initial assets 0 Low median liquid assets in US Survey of Consumer Finances Notes: The table summarizes the data used to calibrate the model to match the wage decline in routine jobs and the resulting parameters. The employment shares of routine occupations come from Acemoglu and Autor (2011); their wage decline from 1985–2007 from Cortes (2016); and the incidence of the wage decline also from Cortes (2016). The scale parameter of the S-curve hx in equation (12) is not reported because it has no clear interpretation. Section 3 describes the calibration approach and data in detail. Table 2: Calibration for the China Shock 1991–2007. Panel I. Islands and technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Data & moments, Autor et al. (2013), Autor et al. (2014) SIC code and industry 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 Food & Kindred Products Tobacco Products Textile Mill Products Apparel Lumber & Wood Products Furniture & Fixtures Paper & Allied Products Printing & Publishing Chemical & Allied Products Petroleum & Coal Products Rubber & Plastics Products Leather & Leather Products Stone, Clay, & Glass Products Primary Metal Industries Fabricated Metal Products Industrial Machinery Electronic Equipment Transportation Equipment Instruments & Related Miscellaneous Manufacturing Estimated objects Valueadded share 1991 Normalized import share 91–07 (pp) Import Penetration 91–07 (pp) Size disrupted islands, νi(x) Share disrupted, si(x) S−curve parameters {πx , κx } 1.77% 0.29% 0.32% 0.43% 0.36% 0.28% 0.76% 1.31% 1.95% 0.35% 0.63% 0.06% 0.43% 0.66% 1.03% 1.67% 1.36% 1.88% 1.04% 0.26% 0.87 0.02 2.8 35.97 6.74 39.69 2.75 1.07 1.94 0.54 10.53 108.38 8.06 9.29 8.69 24.32 36.04 2.44 4.46 70.49 0.48 0.02 1.99 21.76 4.05 27.88 1.83 1.03 1.58 0.13 7.95 58.44 6.53 4.95 6.37 19.33 25.96 1.32 4.26 43.05 0.01% 0.00% 0.01% 0.13% 0.02% 0.09% 0.02% 0.01% 0.03% 0.00% 0.06% 0.05% 0.03% 0.05% 0.07% 0.34% 0.41% 0.04% 0.04% 0.15% 0.74% 0.01% 2.38% 30.57% 5.72% 33.73% 2.34% 0.91% 1.65% 0.46% 8.95% 92.11% 6.85% 7.90% 7.38% 20.67% 30.63% 2.07% 3.79% 59.91% {0.5,3.9768} {0.5,14.217} {0.5,4.3931} {0.5,3.4398} {0.5,2.3346} {0.5,4.5851} {0.5,2.1375} {0.5,1.6949} {0.5,2.8831} {0.5,3.4844} {0.5,1.4856} {0.5,0.5088} {0.5,1.0715} {0.5,3.0595} {0.5,2.5377} {0.5,2.9514} {0.5,1.9978} {0.5,2.5975} {0.5,0.9968} {0.5,0.9271} Panel II. Elasticities, reallocation rate, and households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Elasticity of substitution σ=2 Reallocation rate per year α0 = 1.8% Inverse elasticity of intertemporal substitution γ=2 Standard macro calibration. r = ρ = 5% Standard macro calibration. Discount rate and interest rate Initial assets 0 From Broda and Weinstein (2006) Calibrated to match incidence regressions in Autor et al. (2014) Low median liquid assets in US Survey of Consumer Finances Notes: The table summarizes the data used to calibrate the model to match the China Shock and the resulting parameters. Industry value added shares come from the NBER-CES, and are adjusted using aggregate data from the BEA-BLS integrated industry accounts to recognize the fact that the NBER-CES does not remove intermediate services from value added. Normalized import shares and import penetration measures come from Autor et al. (2013) and Autor et al. (2014). The scale parameter of the S-curve hx in equation (12) is not reported because it has no clear interpretation. Section 4 describes the calibration approach and data in detail. Table 3: Calibration for Colombia’s trade liberalization. Panel I. Islands and technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Data & moments, Eslava et al. (2013), DNP SIC code and industry 311 312 313 314 321 322 323 324 331 332 341 342 352 354 355 356 361 362 369 381 382 383 384 385 390 Food products Food Beverages Tobacco Textiles Apparel Leather products Shoes Wood products Furniture Paper products Printing and publishing Chemical products Oil and coal derivatives Rubber Plastic products Clay products Glass Mineral products Metal products Machinery (exc. electric) Electronics Transportation equipment Instruments Miscellaneous products Valueadded share 1989 Effective tariff 1989 Percent decline in effective tariff 1.59% 1.59% 2.42% 0.43% 2.01% 0.58% 0.14% 0.23% 0.15% 0.10% 0.72% 0.59% 1.40% 0.11% 0.31% 0.55% 0.15% 0.25% 0.89% 0.65% 0.34% 0.73% 1.09% 0.17% 0.22% 48.86% 30.72% 41.53% 32.10% 44.61% 52.73% 32.13% 55.14% 38.15% 19.30% 28.10% 28.19% 25.37% 21.97% 29.41% 35.43% 41.27% 21.86% 19.32% 23.63% 15.25% 21.56% 40.92% 22.11% 24.84% 158.71% 91.34% 95.03% 80.42% 111.89% 116.54% 70.53% 126.10% 84.11% 64.67% 61.72% 73.49% 48.22% 43.35% 65.44% 93.49% 93.38% 45.24% 48.11% 59.76% 32.95% 45.87% 101.65% 36.90% 63.68% Estimated objects Change normalized import shares 89–02 Size disrupted islands, νi(x) Share disrupted, si(x) 27.6 pp 9.1 pp 0.4 pp 11.9 pp 28.9 pp 2.2 pp 14.9 pp 13.9 pp 12.9 pp 16.0 pp 10.2 pp 6.4 pp 48.6 pp 41.8 pp 58.0 pp 41.9 pp 6.8 pp 17.3 pp 1.8 pp 36.7 pp 14.7 pp 107.6 pp 73.7 pp 98.2 pp 62.4 pp 0.40% 0.18% 0.01% 0.06% 0.58% 0.01% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02% 0.03% 0.10% 0.05% 0.98% 0.07% 0.24% 0.27% 0.01% 0.07% 0.03% 0.35% 0.09% 0.84% 0.84% 0.20% 0.20% 22.19% 10.07% 0.37% 12.92% 24.92% 1.66% 16.11% 10.15% 12.44% 22.93% 12.03% 7.53% 60.58% 56.32% 66.29% 42.49% 6.16% 23.34% 2.63% 47.61% 23.48% 100.00% 67.67% 100.00% 78.62% Panel II. Elasticities, reallocation rate, and households . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Elasticity of substitution σ=2 Reallocation rate per year α0 = 3% Inverse elasticity of intertemporal substitution γ=2 Standard macro calibration. r = ρ = 5% Standard macro calibration. Discount rate and interest rate Initial assets 0 Imputed from China-Shock application and Broda and Weinstein (2006) Matches decline in industry premium in Goldberg and Pavcnik (2005) Imputed from China-Shock application Notes: The table summarizes the data used to calibrate the model to match Colombia’s trade liberalization and the resulting parameters. Industry value added shares come from the Departamento Nacional De Planeacion, DNP. Effective tariffs come from the Ministerio de Comercio, and are described in detail in Eslava et al. (2013). The change in import shares before and after the reform come from the Departamento Nacional De Planeacion, DNP. We compute the 1989 level of imports as an average over 1985–1989 and the post reform level as an average over 1998–2002. We exclude industries 351 “industrial chemicals”, 353 “oil refined products”, 371 “steel and iron” and 372 “primary metals” from the analysis because they was already liberalized prior to 1990 and experienced no increase in import penetration since then. Section 5 describes the calibration approach and data in detail.