Will Iraq Become a Democracy (Tables)

Table 1: Comparing Iraq to Similar Countries Value for All countries in peer group Variable Iraq (approximately the same value as Iraq) GDP per capita $2,500 Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Guyana, (PPP) Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Tonga, Ukraine, Uzbekistan Literacy 58% Comoros, Laos, Malawi, Nigeria, Oman, Rwanda Energy exporter 1 All net energy exporters (45 countries) Ethnic fractionalization Religious fractionalization Linguistic fractionalization Gini index 0.37 Percent Moslem 96% 0.48 0.37 44* Middle East 1 British colony 1 Years democratic 0 Population (M) 24 Island 0 Average democracy score for peer group 5.4 3.4 4.5 Croatia, Equatorial Guinea, Mongolia, Singapore, Turkmenistan, Zimbabwe Albania, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Haiti, Liberia, North Korea, Sri Lanka Aruba, Mongolia, Oman, Panama, Papua New Guinea, Singapore, Tonga Angola, Congo (Kinshasa), Grenada, Liberia, St. Vincent & Gren, Venezuela Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Libya, Pakistan, United Arab Emirates All countries in the Middle East (18 countries) All former British colonies (65 countries) 3.8 All countries with zero years democratic in twentieth century (54 countries) Malaysia, Nepal, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Uganda, Venezuela All non-island nations (144 countries) 2.7 Recent 1 All countries with international war in international war 1980s (39 countries) *Value imputed using multiple imputation (King et al. 2001, Honaker et al. 2001). 4.9 6.5 6.1 2.6 3.0 6.9 4.2 6.2 5.1 Table 2: OLS Estimates of Democracy Independent Variables Full Limited Literacy -0.010 (0.014) Inequality -0.004 (0.041) Population (ln) -0.257 (0.096)*** -0.233 (0.089)*** Ethnic fractionalization 1.532 (3.252) Ethnic fract., squared -3.142 (3.825) Linguistic fractionalization -3.430 (2.793) Linguistic fract., squared 5.417 (3.664) Religious fractionalization -5.519 (3.398) -5.486 (3.299)* Religious fract., squared 6.825 (3.887)* 6.557 (3.839)* Energy exporter -0.944 (0.452)** -1.030 (0.432)** GDP per capita (ln) Years democratic British colony Muslims Africa East Asia South Asia Latin America Middle East OECD Island War Constant 0.725 (0.347)** 0.548 (0.300)* 0.024 (0.009)** 0.026 (0.009)*** -0.125 (0.461) -0.037 (0.008)*** -0.038 (0.008)*** -1.163 (0.825) -0.891 (0.567) -3.013 (0.711)*** -2.922 (0.718)*** 2.033 (1.333) 2.231 (1.372) 1.257 (0.862) 1.080 (0.548)** -1.007 (0.869) -0.873 (0.773) 1.658 (0.804)** 1.689 (0.755)** 1.170 (0.617)* 1.158 (0.520)** -0.823 (0.515) -0.777 (0.512) 7.447 (3.691)** 7.302 (2.951)** Observations 186 186 2 Adjusted R 0.678 0.681 F 38.604 27.284 Prob > F 0.0000 0.0000 Dependent variable: Rescaled combined Freedom House Civil Liberties and Political Rights scores, averaged over 1996-2000. Missing data imputed using multiple imputation. Robust standard errors in parentheses. *significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%. Table 3: Unlikely Successes Country Predicted score Actual score Benin 4.5 9.8 Mali 3.3 8.6 South Africa 6.1 11.0 Lithuania 6.7 11.0 Malawi 5.0 8.8 Thailand 4.4 8.2 South Korea 6.3 10.0 Latvia 7.2 10.6 Slovenia 7.8 11.0 São Tomé and Príncipe 7.9 11.0 Note: Data based on full equation from Table 2. Residual -5.3 -5.3 -4.9 -4.3 -3.8 -3.8 -3.7 -3.4 -3.2 -3.1 Figure 1: Three Scenarios of Democracy in Iraq -2 0 2 Scenario kdensity Current 4 6 kdensity Realistic kdensity Optimistic Notes: All simulations conducted on full model from Table 1. All employ Iraq’s current values except as noted. Current = all current values for Iraq Expected value: 0.16 95% confidence interval: -1.23 to 1.58 Realistic = GDP/capita = $5,000 Expected value: 0.68 95% confidence interval: -0.65 to 2.06 Optimistic = GDP/capita = $10,000, Energy Exporter = 0, Years Democratic = 10 Expected value: 2.38 95% confidence interval: 0.81 to 3.93.