The Contingent Effects of Candidate Sex on Voter Choice Tables

Table 1. Types of Attributes Varied in Candidate Profiles Attributes Person information Sex Age Race / Ethnicity Family Experience in public office Salient personal characteristics Party information Party affiliation Values Male Female 36 years old 44 years old 52 years old 60 years old 68 years old 76 years old White Black Hispanic Asian American Single (never married) Single (divorced) Married (no child) Married (two children) 12 years 8 years 4 years No experience Provides strong leadership Really cares about people like you Honest Knowledgeable Compassionate Intelligent Democratic Party Republican Party Table 1 (continued). Types of Attributes Varied in Candidate Profiles Attributes Issue information Policy area of expertise Position on national security Position on immigrants Position on abortion Position on government deficit Values Foreign policy Public safety (crime) Economic policy Health care Education Environmental issues Wants to cut military budget and keep the U.S. out of war Wants to maintain strong defense and increase U.S. influence Favors giving citizenship or guest worker status to undocumented immigrants Opposes giving citizenship or guest worker status to undocumented immigrants Abortion is a private matter (pro-choice) Abortion is not a private matter (pro-life) No opinion (neutral) Wants to reduce the deficit through tax increase Wants to reduce the deficit through spending cuts Does not want to reduce the deficit now Poll information Favorability rating among the public 34% 43% 52% 61% 70% Note: This table shows the attributes and attribute values that are used to generate the candidate profiles for our conjoint experiment. Figure 1. Experimental Design (Congressional Election) Please carefully review the two potential candidates running for election to the U.S. House of Representatives, detailed below. Candidate 1 Candidate 2 Hispanic Asian American 52 60 70% 34% Favors giving citizenship or guest worker satus to undocumented immigrants Opposes giving citizenship or guest worker status to undocumented immigrants Republican Party Democratic Party Position on abortion Abortion is not a private matter (pro-life) Abortion is a private matter (pro-choice) Position on government deficit Wants to reduce the deficit through tax increase Wants to reduce the deficit through tax increase Salient personal characteristics Really cares about people like you Really cares about people like you Wants to cut military budget and keep the U.S. out of war Wants to maintain strong defense and increase U.S. influence Female Female Education Foreign policy Single (divorced) Married (no child) 12 years 4 years Race / Ethnicity Age Favorability rating among the public Position on immigrants Party affiliation Position on national security Gender Policy area of expertise Family Experience in public office If you had to choose between them, which of these candidates would you vote to be a member of the U.S. House of Representatives? Candidate 1 ○ Candidate 2 ○ Figure 2. Marginal Effect of Candidate Attributes on Voting Decision All Respondents (N = 1583) Sex: (Baseline = Male) Female Age: (Baseline = 36 years old) 44 years old 52 years old 68 years old 60 years old 76 years old Race/Ethnicity: (Baseline = White) Black Hispanic Asian American Family: (Baseline = Single (never married)) Single (divorced) Married (no child) Married (tw o children) Experience in public office: (Baseline = No experience) 4 years 8 years 12 years Salient personal characteristics: (Baseline = Provides strong leadership) Really cares about people like you Honest Know ledgeable Compassionate Intelligent Party affiliation: (Baseline = Democratic Party) Republican Party Policy area of expertise: (Baseline = Environmental issues) Foreign policy Public safety (crime) Economic policy Health care Education Position on national security: (Baseline = Cut military budget) Maintain strong defense Position on immigrants: (Baseline = Favors giving guest w orker status) Opposes giving guest w orker status Position on abortion: (Baseline = No opinion (neutral)) Pro-choice Pro-life Position on government deficit: (Baseline = Don't reduce deficit now ) Reduce deficit through tax increase Reduce deficit through spending cuts Favorability rating among the public: (Baseline = 34%) 43% 52% 61% 70% -.1 0 Change in Pr(Preferred Candidate) .1 Note: Plots show the estimated effects of the randomly assigned candidate attributes on the probability of being supported by voters. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Figure 3. Marginal Effect of Candidate Sex on Voting Decision by Office Type By Office Type Presidential election Congressional election -.1 0 Change in Pr(Preferred Candidate) .1 Note: Plots show the estimated effects of the randomly assigned candidate sex (female) on the probability of being supported by voters, conditional on the assumed level of office. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Figure 4. Marginal Effects of Candidate Sex on Voting Decision by Respondent Attributes Female Candidate Disadvantage By Respondent Attributes Sex Male Female Education No BA degree BA or above Age 18-29 years old 30-50 years old 51-65 years old 66 years old or older Social class Low er class Middle class Upper class Region South Nonsouth Race/Ethnicity White Black Hispanic Other Partisanship Democrats Republicans Independents -.1 -.05 0 Change in Pr(Preferred Candidate) .05 .1 Note: Plots show the estimated effects of the randomly assigned candidate sex (female) on the probability of being supported by voters, conditional on voter attributes. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Figure 5. Marginal Effects of Candidate Sex by Respondent Party Identification Female Candidate Disadvantage By Respondent Partisanship Same-party pairings Democrats Republicans Independents Different-party pairings Democrats Republicans Independents -.1 -.05 0 Change in Pr(Preferred Candidate) .05 .1 Note: Plots show the estimated effects of candidate sex on the probability of being preferred to vote in elections. They are separately estimated by the same-party pairings and different party pairings for the group of respondents who are Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, respectively. Bars represent 95% confidence intervals.