Intertemporal Substitution or Reference-Dependent Preferences Appendix

Appendix: Tables Table 1: Boat-Owner’s Characteristics Age 40.16 (9.43) Total family members 4.93 (1.57) Number of income earners 2.164 (1.32) Number of children 2.46 (1.57) Years of education 5.469 (2.23) Savings in Rupees 2,840 (4,385) Daily participation 0.72 (0.46) Daily value of catches 1,080 (902) Average daily costs in kerosene and laborers 770 (245) N 279 Savings, earnings, and costs are in 2007 Rupees Table 2: Determinants of Boat-Owner’s Earnings Price of frozen calamari from India (Euro per Kilogram) Real exchange rate Rupee-Euro Price of kerosene in Rupees per gallon Proportion of days of the month within a lunar cycle T Rainfall in millimeters Average wind speed in Km./hour Wind direction Northeast T Prices are in real terms calculated with base year 2007. Price of kerosene in Singapore port.. 3.03 (0.39) 56.43 (5.3) 61.23 (20.6) 0.24 (0.4) 2,796 1.2 (5.8) 13.7 (6) 0.13 (0.34) 2,557 Table 3: Reduced Form Participation Equation Probit y=Pr(participation) (1) (2) (3) Log (Last 7 days value of catches) 0.0755*** 0.0726*** 0.0746*** (0.0093) (0.0097) (0.0106) Log (Real exchange rate Rupee/Euro) 1.314 1.277 1.382 (0.894) (0.947) (1.088) Log (Kerosene price) 0.0955 0.130 0.0673 (0.168) (0.169) (0.188) Log (Price of calamari) 0.166 (0.150) First Quarter Moon 0.0143 0.0107 0.00375 (0.0183) (0.0190) (0.0201) New Moon -0.0211 -0.0212 -0.0176 (0.0237) (0.0241) (0.0264) Last Quarter Moon 0.0167 0.00930 0.00183 (0.0212) (0.0222) (0.0225) Wind direction Northeast -0.0850*** -0.0911*** (0.0311) (0.0314) Average wind speed (Km. per hour) -0.00152 -0.00194 (0.00144) (0.00157) Total rainfall in millimeters -0.00477*** -0.00442** (0.00160) (0.00172) First Friday of the month -0.466*** -0.410** -0.423** (0.155) (0.169) (0.178) Catholic holiday -0.659*** -0.563*** -0.546*** (0.107) (0.108) (0.114) Holiday*Num. income-earners -0.0973*** -0.103*** -0.107*** (0.0158) (0.0160) (0.0170) Monday 0.0270 0.0316* 0.0272 (0.0172) (0.0171) (0.0180) Tuesday -0.113*** -0.107*** -0.108*** (0.0249) (0.0266) (0.0285) Wednesday -0.156*** -0.146*** -0.142*** (0.0263) (0.0272) (0.0288) Thursday -0.175*** -0.167*** -0.167*** (0.0244) (0.0254) (0.0269) Friday -0.223*** -0.222*** -0.222*** (0.0210) (0.0221) (0.0237) Observations 288,587 261,118 240,493 Mean Participation 0.72 0.71 0.71 (0.44) (0.45) (0.54) Regressions include: Full set of month and year interactions, dummies for the number of consecutive days worked and boat-owner dummies. Errors are clustered at the year and village levels. All prices are in real terms with base year 2007. The income-earners variable includes all income-earners in the household. Table 4: Log Earnings Equation y=log(value of catches) (1) (2) Log (Last 7 days value of catches) 0.164*** 0.158*** (0.0197) (0.0198) Log (Real exchange rate Rupee/Euro) 0.728** 0.816** (0.357) (0.373) Log (Kerosene price) -0.0648 -0.0943 (0.0651) (0.0639) Log (Price of calamari) (3) 0.154*** (0.0206) 0.835** (0.421) -0.0795 (0.0700) 0.0388 (0.0589) First Quarter Moon 0.0155** 0.0115 0.0139 (0.00729) (0.00790) (0.00848) New Moon 0.00827 0.00820 0.00878 (0.00770) (0.00837) (0.00918) Last Quarter Moon 0.0197* 0.0218* 0.0250* (0.0115) (0.0123) (0.0132) Wind direction Northeast -0.0257* -0.0255* (0.0137) (0.0143) Average wind speed (Km. per hour) -0.00103* -0.00112* (0.000613) (0.000666) Total rainfall in millimeters -0.000196 -0.000245 (0.000471) (0.000510) Rho 0.06*** 0.05*** 0.05*** (0.016) (0.02) (0.02) Observations 209,884 187,184 172,428 F-Excluded Instruments 12.5 21.48 14.20 Regressions include: Full set of month and year interactions, dummies for the number of consecutive days worked and boat-owner dummies. Errors are clustered at the year and village levels. All prices are in real terms with base year 2007. Table 5: Structural Participation Equation Probit (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.462*** 1.459*** 0.464*** 1.388*** 0.489*** 1.260*** (0.0159) (0.240) (0.0169) (0.203) (0.0178) (0.212) Log (Last 7 days value of catches) -0.165*** -0.147*** -0.120*** (0.0395) (0.0323) (0.0330) Observations 288,587 288,587 261,118 261,118 240,493 240,493 Mean participation 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.72 0.71 0.71 (0.44) (0.44) (0.44) (0.44) (0.45) (0.45) Mean of ind. part. elasticities 0.19 0.59 0.19 0.57 0.2 0.51 (0.03) (0.1) (0.03) (0.1) (0.04) (0.09) Elasticity at mean chara. 0.2 0.62 0.21 0.61 0.22 0.56 (0.06) (0.1) (0.01) (0.1) (0.01) (0.1) Regressions include: Average wind speed, total rainfall, day of the week dummies, full set of month and year interactions, dummies for the number of consecutive days worked, being a holiday, being a holiday interacted with the number of income-earners in the household, and boat-owner dummies. Errors are corrected for the inclusion of a variable that it is itself estimated (Murphy-Topel, 1985) y=Pr(participation) Predicted log (earnings) Table 6: Liquidity Constraints y=Pr(participation) Savings (1) Predicted l(earnings) 1.399*** (0.204) Log (Last 7 days value of catches) -0.143*** (0.0325) Savings*Predicted l(earnings)*10-5 -0.4540 (0.513) Savings*Log (Last 7 days value of catches)*10-5 -0.2100 (0.131) Assets*Predicted log (earnings)*10-5 Assets*Log (Last 7 days value of catches)*10-5 Cut meal*Predicted log (earnings) Assets (2) 1.391*** (0.203) -0.145*** (0.0324) Cut Meal (3) 1.393*** (0.203) -0.144*** (0.0323) -0.072 (0.18) -0.01 (0.04) -0.0518 (0.0396) Cut meal*Log (Last 7 days value of catches) -0.0146 (0.0097) Observations 261,118 261,118 261,118 Mean participation 0.72 0.72 0.72 (0.44) (0.44) (0.44) Mean of ind. part. elasticities 0.57 0.57 0.57 (0.1) (0.1) (0.1) Elasticity at mean chara. 0.62 0.62 0.62 (0.09) (0.09) (0.09) Regressions include: Average wind speed, total rainfall, day of the week dummies, full set of month-year interactions, dummies for the number of consecutive days worked, being a holiday, being a holiday interacted with the number of income-earners in the household, and boat-owner dummies. Errors corrected for the inclusion of an itself estimated variable (Murphy-Topel, 1985). Table 7: Participation Equation and Elasticities: Alternative Speci…cations (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) Predicted log (earnings) 1.792*** 1.793*** 1.606*** 1.543*** 0.942*** 0.969*** 1.530*** 1.173*** (0.251) (0.251) (0.212) (0.208) (0.224) (0.225) (0.283) (0.300) Log (Last 7 days value of catches) -0.211*** -0.211*** -0.182*** -0.172*** -0.0766** -0.0810** -0.170*** -0.113** (0.0398) (0.0398) (0.0336) (0.0330) (0.0356) (0.0357) (0.0449) (0.0475) Mean of ind. part elasticities 0.73 0.73 0.66 0.63 0.4 0.4 0.63 0.48 (0.12) (0.12) (0.12) (0.11) (0.07) (0.07) (0.1) (0.08) Elasticity at mean chara. 0.79 0.79 0.71 0.68 0.42 0.43 0.68 0.52 (0.11) (0.11) (0.09) (0.09) (0.1) (0.1) (0.12) (0.13) Observations 261,118 261,118 261,118 261,118 261,118 261,118 261,118 261,118 Included in the log-earnings equation: p p p p p p Phase of the Moon dummies p p p p p p Wind direction northeast p p p p p p p Log (Real Exchange rate Rupee/Euro) p p p p p p Log (Kerosene price) Included in participation equation: p Phase of the Moon dummies p Wind direction northeast p Log (Kerosene price) F-Excluded instruments 15.41 16.24 15.12 15.73 21.12 20.75 5.7 12.72 Regressions include: Average wind speed, total rainfall, day of the week dummies, full set of month and year interactions, dummies for the number of consecutive days worked, being a holiday,being a holiday interacted with the number of income-earners in the household, and boat-owner dummies.Errors are corrected for the inclusion of a variable that it is itself estimated (Murphy-Topel, 1985). Table 8: Identi…cation: Summary of variables included in each of the regressions Earnings Equations Participation Equations p Log (Real exchange rate Rupee/Euro) p Log (Kerosene price) p Log (Price of calamari) p Phases of the Moon dummies p Wind direction Northeast p Holiday dummies p Holiday*Num. income-earners p p Log (Last 7 days value of catches) p p Average wind speed (Km. per hour) p p Total rainfall in milimiters p p Day of the week dummies p p Dummies for the number of days worked during the previous days p p Full set of month-year interactions p p Individual dummies