Final Exam: Answers to Recommended End of Chapter Questions

Final exam: Answers to recommended end of chapter questions Chapter 7 7-1. Historical returns are realized returns, or ex-post returns, such as those reported by Ibbotson Associates and Wilson and Jones in Chapter 6 (Table 6-6). Expected returns are ex ante returns--they are the most likely returns for the future, although they may not actually be realized because of risk. 7-2. The expected return for one security is determined from a probability distribution consisting of the likely outcomes, and their associated probabilities, for the security. The expected return for a portfolio is calculated as a weighted average of the individual securities’ expected returns. The weights used are the percentages of total investable funds invested in each security. 7-3. The Markowitz model is based on the calculations for the expected return and risk of a portfolio. Another name associated with expected return is simply “mean,” and another name associated with the risk of a portfolio is the “variance.” Hence, the model is sometimes referred to as the mean-variance approach. 7-4. The expected return for a portfolio of 500 securities is calculated exactly as the expected return for a portfolio of 2 securities--namely, as a weighted average of the individual security returns. With 500 securities, the weights for each of the securities would be very small. 7-5. Each security in a portfolio, in terms of dollar amounts invested, is a percentage of the total dollar amount invested in the portfolio. This percentage is a weight, and the general assumption is that these weights sum to 1.0, accounting for all of the portfolio funds. (.15)(.20) = .030 (.20)(.16) = .032 (.40)(.12) = .048 (.10)(.05) = .005 (.15)(-.05) = -.0075 .1075 or 10.75% = expected return 7-1. To calculate the standard deviation, use the formula n VARi = Σ [PRi-ERi]2Pi i=1 VARGF = [(.20-.1075)2.15] + [(.16-.1075)2.20] + [(.12-.1075)2.40] + [(.05-.1075)2.10] + [(-.05-.1075)2.15] = .00128 + .00055 + .00006 + .00033 + .00372 = .00594 Since σi = (VAR)1/2 the σ for GF = (.00594)1/2 = .0771 = 7.71% 7-2. (a) (.25)(15) + (.25)(12) + (.25)(30) + (.25)(22) = 19.75% (b) (.10)(15) + (.30)(12) + (.30)(30) + (.30)(22) = 20.70% (c) (.10)(15) + (.10)(12) + (.40)(30) + (.40)(22) = 23.50% 8-1. The vertical axis of the Efficient Frontier is expected return. The horizontal axis is risk, as measured by standard deviation. 8-2. There are many portfolios on the Markowitz efficient frontier, depending on how precise one wishes to be. For example, an efficient frontier could be calculated using 1 percentage point intervals for expected return, or one-tenth of a percent intervals. Regardless, there are many portfolios on the efficient frontier. The Markowitz efficient set consists of those portfolios dominating the feasible set of portfolios that could be attained. It is described by a curve, as opposed to a straight line. 8-3. Rational investors seek efficient portfolios because these portfolios promise maximum expected return for a specified level of risk, or minimum risk for a specified expected return. 8-4. Using the Markowitz analysis, an investor would choose the portfolio on the efficient frontier that is tangent to his/her highest indifference curve. This would be the optimal portfolio for him/her. 8-5. An indifference curve describes investor preferences for risk and return. Each indifference curve represents all combinations of portfolios that are equally desirable to a particular investor given the return and risk involved. Thus, an investor's risk aversion would be reflected in his or her indifference curve. The curves for all risk-averse investors will be upward-sloping, but the shapes of the curves can vary depending on risk preferences. 8-6. The efficient frontier shows possibilities, that is, the optimal portfolios that an investor could own. Indifference curves express preferences, or the tradeoff between expected return and risk. 8-7. In recent years, the correlations among stocks of different countries have risen. These correlations increased significantly starting in 1995. The immediate benefits of risk reduction by adding stocks with lower correlations has been reduced but not eliminated. 9-1. Lending possibilities change part of the Markowitz efficient frontier from an arc to a straight line. The straight line extends from RF, the risk-free rate of return, to M, the market portfolio. This new opportunity set, which dominates the old Markowitz efficient frontier, provides investors with various combinations of the risky asset portfolio M and the riskless asset. Borrowing possibilities complete the transformation of the Markowitz efficient frontier into a straight line extending from RF through M and beyond. Investors can use borrowed funds to lever their portfolio position beyond point M, increasing the expected return and risk beyond that available at point M. 9-2. Under the CAPM, all investors hold the market portfolio because it is the optimal risky portfolio. Because it produces the highest attainable return for any given risk level, all rational investors will seek to be on the straight line tangent to the efficient set at the steepest point, which is the market portfolio. 9-3. The basic difference between graphs of the SML and the CML is the label on the horizontal axis. For the CML, it is standard deviation while for the SML, beta. Also, the CML is applicable to portfolios while the SML applies to individual securities and to portfolios. 9-4. In theory, the market portfolio (portfolio M) is the portfolio of all risky assets, both financial and real, in their proper proportions. Such a portfolio would be completely diversified; however, it is a risky portfolio. In equilibrium, all risky assets must be in portfolio M because all investors are assumed to hold the same risky portfolio. If they do, in equilibrium this portfolio must be the market portfolio consisting of all risky assets. 9-5. The slope of the CML is ERM - RF ────── SDM where ERM is the expected return on the market M portfolio, RF is the rate of return on the risk-free asset, and SDM is the standard deviation of the returns on the market portfolio. The slope of the CML is the market price of risk for efficient portfolios; that is, it indicates the equilibrium price of risk in the market. It shows the additional return that the market demands for each percentage increase in a portfolio's risk. 9-6. The CML extends from RF, the risk-free asset, through M, the market portfolio of all risky securities (weighted by their respective market values). This portfolio is efficient, and the CML consists of combinations of this portfolio and the risk-free asset. All asset combinations on the CML are efficient portfolios consisting of M and the risk-free asset. 9-7. The contribution of each security to the standard deviation of the market portfolio depends on the size of its covariance with the market portfolio. Therefore, investors consider the relevant measure of risk for a security to be its covariance with the market portfolio. 9-8. Using some methodology (such as the dividend valuation model) to estimate the expected returns for securities, investors can compare these expected returns to the required returns obtained from the SML. Securities whose expected returns plot above the SML are undervalued because they offer more expected return than investors require; if they plot below the SML, they are overvalued because they do not offer enough expected return for their level of risk. 9-9. When a security is recognized by investors as undervalued, they will purchase it because it offers more return than required, given its risk. This demand will drive up the price of the security as more of it is purchased. The return will be driven down until it reaches the level indicated by the SML as appropriate for its degree of risk. 9-10. The difficulties involved in estimating a security's beta include deciding on the number of observations and the length of the periods to use in calculating the beta. The regression estimate of beta is only an estimate of the true beta, and subject to error. Also, the beta is not perfectly stationary over time. Problems 9-1. k = 5 + .9[11-5] = 10.4 9-2. k = 5 + .8[12-5] = 10.6 9-3. k = 5 + 1.5[7] 9-4. (a) From the SML: Stock 1 2 3 4 5 = 15.5 8 + .9(4) = 11.6% 8 + 1.3(4) = 13.2% 8 + .5(4) = 10.0% 8 + 1.1(4) = 12.4% 8 + 1.0(4) = 12.0% (b) Funds 1, 3, and 4 are undervalued because each has an expected return greater than its required return as given by the SML. (c) The slope of the SML, or (12-8) = 4. 9-5. E(Ri) = 7.0 + (13.0-7.0)βi = 7.0 + 6.0βi GF PepsiCo IBM NCNB EG&G EAL CFA 9-31. 7 + 6( .8) 7 + 6( .9) 7 + 6(1.0) 7 + 6(1.2) 7 + 6(1.2) 7 + 6(1.5) = 11.8% = 12.4% = 13.0% = 14.2% = 14.2% = 16.0% < < < > < > 12% 13% 14% 11% 21% 10% undervalued undervalued undervalued overvalued undervalued overvalued (a) With RT the return on the tangency portfolio and RF the risk-free rate, Expected risk premium per unit of risk = E (RT) - RF = 14 – 6 = 0.33 σ (RT) 24 (b) First, we find the weight w of the tangency portfolio in the investor’s portfolio using the expression σ(RP) = w σ (RT), So w = (20/24) = 0.8333 Then E (Rp) = wE(RT) + (1 – w) RF = 0.833333(14%) + 0.166667(6%) = 12.67% CFA 9-32. With RM the return on the market portfolio, we have E(RP) = wE (RM) + (1 – w)RF 17 = 13w + 5(1 – w) = 8w + 5 12 = 8w w = 1.5 Thus 1 – 1.5 = -0.5 of initial wealth goes into the risk-free asset. The negative sign indicates borrowing: -0.5($1 million) = -$500,000, so the investor borrows $500,000. CFA 9-33. With a risk-free asset, we can evaluate portfolios using the Sharpe ratio (the ratio of mean return in excess of the risk-free rate divided by standard deviation of return). The Sharpe ratios are Portfolio A: (12– 2)/15 = 0.67 Portfolio B: (10 –2)/8 = 1.00 Portfolio C: (10 –2)/9 = 0.89 With risk-free borrowing and lending possible, Martinez will choose Portfolio B because it has the highest Sharpe ratio. CFA 9-34. βadj = 0.33 + (0.67)(1.2) = 0.33 + 0.80 = 1.13 E(RP)= E (Ri) = RF + βi[E(RM) – RF] = 5% = 1.13 (8.5%) = 14.6% 10-1. The intrinsic value of an asset is its fair economic value as estimated by investors. This value is a function of underlying economic variables--specifically, expected returns and risk. Traditionally, intrinsic value is determined through a present value process. The future expected cash flows on an asset are discounted at a required rate of return. 10-2. The required rate of return for a stock is the minimum expected rate of return necessary to induce an investor to purchase a stock. It accounts for opportunity cost and the risk involved for a particular stock. If an investor can expect to earn the same return elsewhere at a lesser risk, why buy the stock under consideration? Or, put another way, if your opportunity cost for a given risk level is 15%, you should not purchase a stock with that risk level unless you can expect to earn 15% or more from that stock. 10-3. Earnings cannot be used directly in the present value approach because reinvested earnings would be double counted, first as earnings reinvested currently and later as dividends paid. If properly defined and separated, these two variables will produce the same results. Dividends, however, can be used directly. 10-4. The Dividend Discount Model is a widely used method to value common stocks. A present value process is used to discount expected future dividends at an appropriate required rate of return. The equation is: D1 D2 D3 D∞ PVcs = ───── + ────── + ────── + ... + ────── (1+k) (1+k)2 (1+k)3 (1+k) ∞ 10-5. The problems encountered in the dividend discount model stated as Equation 10-2 in the text, and shown above in answer number 10-4, include: (a) The last term indicates we are dealing with infinity. (b) The dividend stream is uncertain. (c) The required rate of return has to be determined. 10-14. The valuation of common stocks is always an art and not a science. 10-1. Using the formula for the constant growth model to solve for price, and recognizing that we must compound the stated dividend, D0, up one period to obtain D1, P0 = D1 / (k-g) = D0(1+g) / (k-g) = $2.25(1+.08) / (.13-.08) = $2.43/.05 = $48.60 10-2. Using the constant growth version of the Dividend Discount Model: k = D1/P0 + g = $2.00/$45 + .09 = .1344 or 13.44% 10-3. Again using the constant growth version of the Dividend Discount Model, solve for g k = D1/P0 + g k-g = D1/P0 -g = D1/P0 - k g = k - D1/P0 g = k - [(D0(1+g))/P0] Or: Therefore: g = .15 - [($3.00(1+g))/50] 50g = 7.50 - 3 - 3g 53g = 7.50 - 3 53g = 4.50 g = 08.49 or 8.49% 10-4. P = D0/k = 1.50/.15 = $10.00 10-5. (a) k = D0/P0 = $3.00/$40 = 7.5% (b) The price will decline because required rates of return rise while dividends remain fixed. Specifically, P = $3.00/.09 = $33.33 10-6. Given a one year horizon, this problem can be formulated as P1 D1 P0 = ─────── + ─────── (1+k) (1+k) $25 = $3.00/(1+k) + $30/(1+k) (1+k)25 = 3 + 30 1+k = 33/25 =1.32 k = 32% 11-1. The market has a major impact on the average stock. For a well-diversified portfolio, which has little or no nonsystematic risk (attributable to individual company factors), the market is the dominant influence on the portfolio, explaining most of the variation in its returns. Since most mutual funds are very diversified, they will tend to move very much like the market. 11-2. Common stock investors recognize that returns will be quite variable on a year-to-year basis. One has only to examine the S&P data given in the text to verify this. Nevertheless, owning common stocks is a prudent thing to do because of their larger returns. Diversification is an absolute essential, which helps to reduce the risk. Also, owning stocks over a long period helps to reduce the risk in the sense that a portfolio does not have to be liquidated during bear market periods. Based on the historical evidence, it would not be prudent to own a portfolio of fixed-income securities over a long period of time because of their much lower returns (and ending wealth), particularly on an inflation-adjusted basis. 11-3. The ownership of foreign stocks is a natural, and important, part of the diversification process as well as the process of seeking the best returns possible, given the risk involved. Investors must operate in an international environment in today’s world. The fact that Japanese stock prices dropped drastically simply means that for new investors a significant opportunity exists. The question, of course, has been when to buy. All stock markets are risky, domestic and foreign. 11-4. Passive strategies are based on the proposition that an investor does not possess either the knowledge or the ability to outperform the market as a whole. These strategies simply seek to do as well as the market. Passive strategies are related to the concept of efficient markets. 11-5. The Efficient Market Hypothesis has to do with the adjustment of stock prices to new information. If the market is efficient, stock prices adjust quickly, and on balance accurately, to new information. This hypothesis has obvious implications for the use of passive strategies. 11-6. Actively managed funds are likely to be tax inefficient because of the high annual portfolio turnover rates today, often 100 percent or more (meaning on average every stock in the portfolio is sold within a year. Because mutual funds must pass on their capital gains and losses to shareholders, who have no control over the distributions other than selling their shares beforehand, these funds can be very tax inefficient. 11-7. No. An index fund can only perform as well as the underlying index on a gross basis, and on a net basis the annual expense ratio must be deducted. 11-8. Three active strategies for common stocks include: stock selection--searching for undervalued or overvalued stocks sector rotation--shifting the sector weights in a portfolio to take advantage of those sectors expected to do relatively better and avoid those expected to do relatively worse market timing--the attempt to earn excess returns by varying the percentage of portfolio assets in equity securities. 11-9. In evaluating common stocks, according to one study, security analysts rely on presentations from top management of companies, annual reports, and Form 10-K reports that the companies must file with the SEC. 11-10. The cross-sectional variation in common stocks is large. In a given year, there is a wide range in performance of stocks. Investors who can confine stock selection to the stocks in the highest quartile in a given year would largely avoid losing years. However, about 25 percent of the time even the best stocks would have lost money. Cross-sectional variation of returns has been increasing steadily over the decades. 11-11. Sector rotation is an active strategy involving shifting sector weights in the portfolio in order to take advantage of those sectors that are expected to do relatively better, and avoid or de-emphasize those sectors that are expected to do relatively worse. Investors using this strategy are betting that particular sectors will repeat their price performance relative to the current phase of the business and credit cycle. The key to effective strategies involving sector rotation is an accurate assessment of current economic conditions. 11-12. The evidence on market timing suggests that there is little evidence of many investors doing this successfully on a consistent basis. The evidence from mutual funds is particularly persuasive in this regard. 19-1. The potential advantages of puts and calls include: (a) the smaller investment required relative to transacting in the common (b) leverage--potential magnification of gains (c) maximum loss is known in advance (d) an expanded opportunity set, increasing the risk-return combinations available. (e) possible lower transactions cost for the portfolio as a whole (f) the ability to hedge or speculate on broad market movements and/or interest rates using index options 19-2. Puts and calls are short-term options, with maturities (on organized exchanges) measured in months, except for LEAPS. Warrants generally have maturities of several years, and a few are perpetual. A second distinction is that puts and calls are created by investors (individuals or institutions), while warrants are created by corporations. Finally, every warrant is unique, with the corporation (issuer) setting its parameters on a case-by-case basis. 19-3. An option buyer can choose to do nothing (or, put differently, fail to act). There is no obligation to take action. 19-4. (a) Strike or exercise price--the per-share price at which the common stock may be purchased (or sold to a writer) (b) Naked option--a call option written without the stock being owned by the writer, or a put option written by a writer who is not short the stock (c) Premium--the price paid by the option buyer to the writer or seller of the option--the market price of the option (d) Out-of-the-Money Option--a call whose exercise price exceeds the current stock price or a put whose exercise price is less than the current stock price. 19-5. Premiums and prices are the same thing. 19-6. Investors, both individuals and institutions, write puts and calls in an attempt to profit from their beliefs about the underlying stock’s likely price performance. Writers earn the premiums paid by the buyers. 19-7. The options clearing corporation (OCC) plays an important role in the options market. The OCC guarantees the performance of the contracts, preventing potential problems with writers who must honor their obligations. The OCC facilitates the taking of an opposite (closing) position at any time by buyers or sellers. 19-8. The writer can cancel by purchasing the identical option. Thus, a sale is followed by a purchase. 19-9. Option prices almost always exceed intrinsic values. This excess, sometimes called the premium over parity, exists because buyers are willing to pay some price for potential future stock price movements. 19-10. Option prices almost always exceed intrinsic values, with the difference reflecting the option’s potential appreciation typically referred to as the time value. Time obviously has a positive value for call options because the longer the time to expiration for a call option, the more chance it has to appreciate. 19-11. The Black-Scholes model uses five variables to value a call option: (a) the price of the underlying stock (b) the exercise price of the option (c) the time remaining to the expiration of the option (d) the riskless rate of return (e) the volatility of the underlying stock price. The first two variables determine whether an option is in-the-money or not. A difference between (a) and (b) that results in an in-the-money option has a direct (positive) effect on the option’s value. The last three factors, (c) through (e), have a direct (positive) effect on an option’s value. 19-12. Reasons for purchasing a call are: (a) to establish a position with minimum initial investment (b) to protect a short sale (c) to maximize leverage for speculative purposes (d) to engage in hedging strategies. 19-13. Investors writing calls often are seeking the income from the premium. Such a strategy can supplement the dividend income on stocks held. A call writer’s obligation is to deliver the stock for the strike price if called upon to do so. 19-14. The call or put writer’s position is considerably different from the buyer’s position because of the obligation involved on the part of a writer. A call writer must be prepared to deliver the stock, regardless of the level to which the stock price has risen. A put writer must be prepared to take delivery of a stock and pay a specified price for it, regardless of the level to which the stock price has declined. Buyers know their potential losses while writers do not. 19-1. (a) The Teledyne calls that are in the money, given a closing stock price of $162, are the calls with exercise prices of 140, 150, and 160. (b) The Teledyne puts in the money are the puts with exercise prices of 170 and 180. (c) Although the stock closed at $162, investors are willing to pay 1/4 for the 180 call because they feel there is some probability that the price of the stock will rise to the 180 area. They are willing to pay only 1 for the 150 put because they feel there is less chance of the stock declining to the 150 area. 19-2. (a) Using the Teledyne data, the intrinsic value of the April 140 call is 162 - 140 = 22 The intrinsic value of the October 170 call is $0 (zero) since the stock price is less than the exercise price. (b) The intrinsic value of the April 140 put is $0 (zero) since the strike price is less than the stock price. The intrinsic value of the October 170 put is 170 - 162 = 8 (c) The stock price is on the higher end of the range of exercise prices available for Teledyne options. Therefore, the intrinsic values for the calls are greater. 19-3. (a) The cost of 10 October 150 call contracts in total dollars is: a price of 25 = $2500 per contract; therefore, 10 contracts would involve a total dollar amount of $25,000. From the text, the brokerage cost for 10 option contracts is $65. Therefore, the total cost of this transaction would be $25,065. (b) The cost of 20 October 160 put contracts in total dollars is: a price of 9 = $900 per contract; therefore, 20 contracts would involve a total dollar amount of $18,000. From the text, the brokerage cost for 20 contracts is $115. Therefore, the total cost of this transaction would be $18,115. (c) If Teledyne closed at $164 the following day, the in-the-money call options would increase in value, and the out-of-the-money calls probably would also. As the stock price rises, the prices of the put contracts should decline. (d) If the price of this option rises $1, from 25 to 26, the gross profit per contract would be $100. Therefore, for 10 contracts the one-day profit would be $1000. Subtracting out two-way brokerage cost of 65 x 2 = $130, an investor would net $870. (e) If the October 160 put goes to 7 1/2, each contract would show a loss of 9 - 7 1/2, or 1 1/2 ($150). Therefore, the one-day loss on 20 contracts would be $150 x 20 = $3000. Adding in two-way brokerage costs of $115 x 2 = $230, the total loss would be $3230 if these contracts had been bought at 9 and sold one day later at 7 1/2. (f) These contracts, like any option contracts, can expire worthless, resulting in a total loss of investment plus brokerage costs. You can lose the full purchase price plus at least one-way commissions.