Equity Valuation

CHAPTER 13 13.1 VALUATION BY COMPARABLES Equity Valuation Fundamental Stock Analysis: Models of Equity Valuation Basic Types of Models – Balance Sheet Models – Dividend Discount Models – Price/Earnings Ratios Estimating Growth Rates and Opportunities Table 13.1 Microsoft Corporation Financial Highlights Models of Equity Valuation Valuation models use comparables – Look at the relationship between price and various determinants of value for similar firms The internet provides a convenient way to access firm data. Some examples are: – EDGAR – Finance.yahoo.com Valuation Methods Book value Market value Liquidation value Replacement cost Expected Holding Period Return 13.2 INTRINSIC VALUE VERSUS MARKET PRICE The return on a stock investment comprises cash dividends and capital gains or losses – Assuming a oneone-year holding period Expected HPR= E (r ) = Required Return CAPM gave us required return: k = rf + β  E (rM ) − rf  If the stock is priced correctly – Required return should equal expected return E ( D1 ) + [ E ( P1 ) − P0 P0 Intrinsic Value and Market Price Market Price – Consensus value of all potential traders – Current market price will reflect intrinsic value estimates – This consensus value of the required rate of return, k, is the market capitalization rate Trading Signal – IV > MP Buy – IV < MP Sell or Short Sell – IV = MP Hold or Fairly Priced General Model 13.3 DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODELS ] Vo = ∑ Dt t t = 1 (1 + k ) ∞ V0 = Value of Stock Dt = Dividend k = required return No Growth Model Vo = D k Stocks that have earnings and dividends that are expected to remain constant – Preferred Stock Constant Growth Model Vo = Do(1 + g) k−g g = constant perpetual growth rate Stock Prices and Investment Opportunities g = ROE × b g = growth rate in dividends ROE = Return on Equity for the firm b = plowback or retention percentage rate – (1(1- dividend payout percentage rate) No Growth Model: Example Vo = D k E1 = D1 = $5.00 k = .15 V0 = $5.00 / .15 = $33.33 Constant Growth Model: Example Vo = Do(1 + g) k−g E1 = $5.00 b = 40% k = 15% (1(1-b) = 60% D1 = $3.00 g = 8% V0 = 3.00 / (.15 - .08) = $42.86 Figure 13.1 Dividend Growth for Two Earnings Reinvestment Policies Present Value of Growth Opportunities If the stock price equals its IV, growth rate is sustained, the stock should sell at: P0 = D1 k−g If all earnings paid out as dividends, price should be lower (assuming growth opportunities exist) Partitioning Value: Example ROE = 20% d = 60% b = 40% E1 = $5.00 D1 = $3.00 k = 15% g = .20 x .40 = .08 or 8% Life Cycles and Multistage Growth Models P o = Do ∑ (1+ g )t DT (1+ g 2) + t ( k − g 2)(1+ k )T t =1 (1 + k ) T 1 g1 = first growth rate g2 = second growth rate T = number of periods of growth at g1 Present Value of Growth Opportunities (cont.) Price = NoNo-growth value per share + PVGO (present value of growth opportunities) E P0 = 1 + PVGO k Where: E1 = Earnings Per Share for period 1 and PVGO = D0 (1 + g ) E1 − (k − g ) k Partitioning Value: Example (cont.) 3 = $42.86 − (.15 .08) 5 = $33.33 NGV o = .15 PVGO = $42.86 − $33.33 = $9.52 Po = Po = price with growth NGVo = no growth component value PVGO = Present Value of Growth Opportunities Multistage Growth Rate Model: Example D0 = $2.00 g1 = 20% g2 = 5% k = 15% T = 3 D1 = 2.40 D2 = 2.88 D3 = 3.46 D4 = 3.63 V0 = D1/(1.15) + D2/(1.15)2 + D3/(1.15)3 + D4 / (.15 - .05) ( (1.15)3 V0 = 2.09 + 2.18 + 2.27 + 23.86 = $30.40 P/E Ratio and Growth Opportunities P/E Ratios are a function of two factors 13.4 PRICE-EARNINGS RATIOS – Required Rates of Return (k) – Expected growth in Dividends Uses – Relative valuation – Extensive use in industry P/E Ratio: No expected growth E1 k 1 = k P0 = P0 E1 P/E Ratio: Constant Growth D1 E 1(1 − b) = k − g k − (b × ROE ) P0 1− b = E 1 k − (b × ROE ) P0 = – E1 is equal to D1 under no growth b = retention ration ROE = Return on Equity Numerical Example: No Growth Numerical Example with Growth E1 - expected earnings for next year k - required rate of return E0 = $2.50 g=0 k = 12.5% P0 = D/k = $2.50/.125 = $20.00 P/E = 1/k = 1/.125 = 8 b = 60% ROE = 15% (1(1-b) = 40% E1 = $2.50 (1 + (.6)(.15)) = $2.73 D1 = $2.73 (1(1-.6) = $1.09 k = 12.5% g = 9% P0 = 1.09/(.1251.09/(.125-.09) = $31.14 P/E = 31.14/2.73 = 11.4 P/E = (1 - .60) / (.125 - .09) = 11.4 P/E Ratios and Stock Risk Riskier stocks will have lower P/E multiples Riskier firms will have higher required rates of return (higher values of k) P 1− b = E k−g Pitfalls in Using P/E Ratios Flexibility in reporting makes choice of earnings difficult Pro forma earnings may give a better measure of operating earnings Problem of too much flexibility Figure 13.3 P/E Ratios and Inflation Figure 13.4 Earnings Growth for Two Companies Figure 13.5 Price-Earnings Ratios Figure 13.6 P/E Ratios Other Comparative Valuation Ratios PricePrice-toto-book PricePrice-toto-cash flow PricePrice-toto-sales Be creative Figure 13.7 Valuation Ratios for the S&P 500 Free Cash Flow 13.5 FREE CASH FLOW VALUATION APPROACHES One approach is to discount the free cash flow for the firm (FCFF) at the weightedweightedaverage cost of capital – Subtract existing value of debt – FCFF = EBIT (1(1- tc) + Depreciation – Capital expenditures – Increase in NWC where: EBIT = earnings before interest and taxes tc = the corporate tax rate NWC = net working capital Free Cash Flow (cont.) Another approach focuses on the free cash flow to the equity holders (FCFE) and discounts the cash flows directly at the cost of equity FCFE = FCFF – Interest expense (1(1- tc) + Increases in net debt Comparing the Valuation Models Free cash flow approach should provide same estimate of IV as the dividend growth model In practice the two approaches may differ substantially – Simplifying assumptions are used Earnings Multiplier Approach 13.6 THE AGGREGATE STOCK MARKET Figure 13.8 Earnings Yield of the S&P 500 Versus 10-year Treasury Bond Yield Forecast corporate profits for the coming period Derive an estimate for the aggregate P/E ratio using longlong-term interest rates Product of the two forecasts is the estimate of the endend-ofof-period level of the market Table 13.4 S&P 500 Index Forecasts