University:
California State University, Northridge
Course:
MATH 140 | Introductory Statistic
Academic year:

2020
Views:

352

Pages:

2
Author:

Shyanne Johnson

Beyond the Classroom 1.1 A Very Lucky Wind tells the story of a 10 year old girl named Laura Buxton who sets off a balloon leading to a crazy list of coincidences and acts of fate. Commentators, Jad and Robert, use this scenario to discuss statistics, randomness and probability. Deborah Nolan, a statistics professor at UC Berkeley, explains to the commentators that randomness “in the wild” often seems too random to occur naturally and can be deceiving. Another interviewee, Jay Koehler, tells his interviewers that the “blade of grass” way of thinking of probability is not the best way to look at the situation. He explains that if there are millions of blades of grass looking at the probability of one blade of grass being the one that gets hit by a golf ball is narrow minded when compared to looking at the chance that any blade of grass was going to be the special one. We should not look at the probability of the one specific event happening to one subject, but rather the chance of it happening in its entire sample size- at least when we think of crazy coincidence or fate. Both experts that the interviewers speak to point to the importance of thinking beyond yourself in order to not get caught up in “magical thinking”. A strange coincidence that seems like magic or fate has occured in my life more than once. I moved from New Jersey to California when I was 13. Quickly after the move, we joined a new Presbyterian church, just like our last one. A few years down the line a member of my new church, Erik, pursued seminary school and applied to one of the best in the country, Princeton Seminary, in New Jersey. This on its own was not much of a surprise to me, however, it had enough personal connection to my past to be exciting and interesting. Months later we got word that he had to do missionary work with a local church and he chose none other than the church that I had grown up in. Princeton, New Jersey was about an hour and a half away from this church. This to me felt like fate or some act of God. But if I think about it the chances of that happening may not have been crazy. How many Presbyterian churches were there in a short radius from Princeton? Probably not many. If I put myself in the center of this situation it seems crazy, but if I look at it in only a slightly different way it suddenly is not the most crazy coincidence. So many things are constantly at play in the world that “crazy coincidences” are bound to happen. Similarly, we put so much weight on the coincidences, but there are many things that we dismiss. There are so many factors that do not connect Erik’s life to mine, however, the ones that do seem very special, especially when I am looking for similarities and picking them out.

A Very Lucky Project - Beyond the Classroom 1.1

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