Endogenous Growth I: AK, Spillovers, Human Capital

Chapter 6 Endogenous Growth I: AK, H, and G Economic Growth: Lecture Notes 6.1 The Simple AK Model 6.1.1 Pareto Allocations • Total output in the economy is given by Yt = F (Kt , Lt ) = AKt , where A > 0 is an exogenous parameter. In intensive form, yt = f (kt ) = Akt . • The social planner’s problem is the same as in the Ramsey model, except for the fact that output is linear in capital: max ∞ � u(ct ) t=0 s.t. ct + kt+1 ≤ f (kt ) + (1 − δ)kt • The Euler condition gives u� (ct ) = β (1 + A − δ) u� (ct+1 ) • Assuming CEIS, this reduces to ct+1 = [β (1 + A − δ)]θ ct or ln ct+1 − ln ct ≈ θ(A − δ − ρ) That is, consumption growth is proportional to the difference between the real return on capital and the discount rate. Note that now the real return is a constant, rather than diminishing with capital accumulation. Economic Growth: Lecture Notes • The resource constraint can be rewritten as ct + kt+1 = (1 + A − δ)kt . Since total resources (the RHS of the above) are linear in k and preferences are homothetic, an educated guess is that optimal consumption and investment are also linear in k. We thus propose ct = (1 − s)(1 + A − δ)kt kt+1 = s(1 + A − δ)kt where the coefficient s is to be determined and must satisfy s ∈ (0, 1) for the solution to exist. • It follows that ct+1 kt+1 yt+1 = = ct kt yt so that consumption, capital and income all grow at the same rate. • To ensure perpetual growth, we thus need to impose β (1 + A − δ) > 1, or equivalently A − δ > ρ. If that condition were not satisfied, and instead A − δ < ρ, then the economy would shrink at a constant rate towards zero. Economic Growth: Lecture Notes • From the resource constraint we then have ct kt+1 + = (1 + A − δ), kt kt implying that the consumption-capital ratio is given by ct = (1 + A − δ) − [β (1 + A − δ)]θ kt Using ct = (1 − s)(1 + A − δ)kt and solving for s we conclude that the optimal saving rate is s = β θ (1 + A − δ)θ−1 . Equivalently, s = β θ (1 + R)θ−1 , where R = A − δ is the net social return on capital. Note that the saving rate is increasing (decreasing) in the real return if and only if the EIS is higher (lower) than unit, and s = β for θ = 1. • Finally, to ensure s ∈ (0, 1), we impose β θ (1 + A − δ)θ−1 < 1. This is automatically ensured when θ ≤ 1 and β (1 + A − δ) > 1, as then s = β θ (1 + A − δ)θ−1 ≤ β < 1. But when θ > 1, this puts an upper bound on A. If A exceeded that upper bound, then the social planner could attain infinite utility, and the problem is not well-defined. Economic Growth: Lecture Notes 6.1.2 The Competitive Economy • There is a large number of competitive firms, each with access to the same AK technology. The equilibrium rental rate of capital and the equilibrium wage rate are then simply given by r=A and w = 0. while arbitrage between bonds and capital implies that the interest rate is R = r − δ = A − δ. • On the other hand, the Euler condition for the representative household gives ct+1 = [β (1 + R)]θ . ct • Following the same steps as in the neoclassical growth model, we conclude that the competitive market allocations coincide with the Pareto optimal ones. This is true only because the private and the social return to capital coincide. Proposition 21 Consider an AK economy with CEIS preferences and suppose that (β, θ, A, δ) satisfy β (1 + A − δ) > 1 > β θ (1 + A − δ)θ−1 . Then, the equilibrium is pareto efficient and the economy exhibits a balanced growth path. Capital, output, and consumption all grow at a constant rate, which is given by kt+1 yt+1 ct+1 = = = [β (1 + A − δ)]θ > 1. kt yt ct Consumption and investment are given by ct = (1 − s) (1 + A − δ) kt and kt+1 = s (1 + A − δ) kt . where s = β θ (1 + A − δ)θ−1 . • The growth rate is increasing in A, θ, and β. Differences in productivity or preferences may thus explain differences, not only in the level of output and the rate of investment, but also in rate of long-run growth. Economic Growth: Lecture Notes 6.1.3 What is next • The analysis here has assumed a single type of capital and a single sector of production. We next consider multiple types of capital and multiple sectors. In essence, we “endogenize” the capital K and the productivity A—for example, in terms of physical versus human capital, intentional capital accumulation versus unintentional spillovers, innovation and knowledge creation, etc. The level of productivity and the growth rate then depend on how the economy allocates resources across different types of capital and different sectors of production. What is important to keep in mind from the simple AK model is the role of linear returns for sustaining perpetual growth. • In the next section, we start with a variant of the AK model where there are two types of capital, physical (or tangible) and human (or intangible). We first assume that both types of capital are produced with the same technology, that is, they absorb resources in the same intensities. We later consider the case that the production of human capital is more intensive in time/effort/skills than in machines/factories. In both cases, Pareto and competitive allocations coincide. • In subsequent sections, we consider richer endogenous growth models that achieve two goals: – provide a deeper understanding of the process of technological growth (positive) – open up the door to inefficiency in market allocations (normative) Economic Growth: Lecture Notes 6.2 A Simple Model of Human Capital 6.2.1 Pareto Allocations • Total output in the economy is given by Yt = F (Kt , Ht ) = F (Kt , ht Lt ), where F is a CRS neoclassical production function, Kt is aggregate capital in period t, ht is human capital per worker, and Ht = ht Lt is effective labor. • In per capita terms, yt = F (kt , ht ) where yt = Yt /Lt and kt = Kt /Lt • Total output can be used for consumption or investment in either type of capital, so that the resource constraint of the economy is given by ct + ikt + iht ≤ yt . The laws of motion for two types of capital are kt+1 = (1 − δk )kt + ikt ht+1 = (1 − δh )ht + iht As long as neither ikt nor iht are constrained to be positive, the resource constraint and the two laws of motion are equivalent to a single constraint, namely ct + kt+1 + ht+1 ≤ F (kt , ht ) + (1 − δk )kt + (1 − δh )ht Economic Growth: Lecture Notes • The social planner’s problem thus becomes max ∞ � u(ct ) t=0 s.t. ct + kt+1 + ht+1 ≤ F (kt , ht ) + (1 − δk )kt + (1 − δh )ht • Since there are two types of capital, we have two Euler conditions, one for each type of capital. The one for physical capital is u� (ct ) = β [1 + Fk (kt+1 , ht+1 ) − δk ] , u� (ct+1 ) while the one for human capital is u� (ct ) = β [1 + Fh (kt+1 , ht+1 ) − δh ] . u� (ct+1 ) • Due to CRS, we can rewrite output per capita as � yt = F (kt , ht ) = F � � � kt kt ht , 1 ht = F ,1 [kt + ht ] ht ht kt + ht or equivalently yt = F (kt , ht ) = A (κt ) [kt + ht ], where κt = kt /ht = Kt /Ht is the ratio of physical to human capital, kt + ht measures total capital, and A (κ) ≡ represents the return to total capital. • Do you see where we are going? F (κ, 1) f (κ) ≡ 1+κ 1+κ Economic Growth: Lecture Notes • Multiplying the Euler condition for k with kt+1 /(kt+1 +ht+1 ) and the one for h with ht+1 /(kt+1 +ht+1 ), and summing the two together, we infer the following “weighted” Euler condition: � � u� (ct ) kt+1 [Fk (kt+1 , ht+1 ) − δk ] + ht+1 [Fh (kt+1 , ht+1 ) − δh ] =β 1+ u� (ct+1 ) kt+1 + ht+1 By CRS, we have Fk (kt+1 , ht+1 )kt+1 + Fh (kt+1 , ht+1 )ht+1 = F (kt+1 , ht+1 ) = A (κt+1 ) [kt+1 + ht+1 ] δk kt+1 + δh ht+1 = δ(κt+1 )[kt+1 + ht+1 ] kt+1 + ht+1 F (κ, 1) κ 1 A (κ) ≡ and δ (κ) ≡ δk + δh 1+κ 1+κ 1+κ It follows that u� (ct ) = β [1 + A (κt+1 ) − δ(κt+1 )] u� (ct+1 ) • Combining the two Euler conditions, we infer Fk (kt+1 , ht+1 ) − δk = Fh (kt+1 , ht+1 ) − δh . Remember that F is CRS, implying that both Fk and Fh are functions of the ratio κt+1 = kt+1 /ht+1 . In particular, Fk is decreasing in κ and Fh is increasing in κ. The above condition therefore determines a unique optimal ratio κ∗ such that kt+1 = κt+1 = κ∗ ht+1 for all t ≥ 0. • For example, if F (k, h) = k α h1−α and δk = δh , then Fk Fh = α h 1−α k and therefore κ∗ = α . 1−α More generally, the optimal physical-to-human capital ratio is increasing in the relative productivity of physical capital and decreasing in the relative depreciation rate of physical capital. Economic Growth: Lecture Notes • Note that kt+1 /ht+1 = κ∗ indeed solves the following problem max F (kt+1 , ht+1 ) − δk kt+1 − δh ht+1 s.t. kt+1 + ht+1 = constant That is, κ∗ maximizes the return to savings: κ∗ = arg max [1 + A(κ) − δ(κ)] κ Proposition 22 Consider the economy with physical and human capital described above, let κ∗ = arg max [1 + A(κ) − δ(κ)] , κ and suppose (β, θ, F, δk , δh ) satisfy β [1 + A(κ∗ ) − δ(κ∗ )] > 1 > β θ [1 + A(κ∗ ) − δ(κ∗ )]θ−1 . Then, the econ­ omy exhibits a balanced growth path. Physical capital, human capital, output, and consumption all grow at a constant rate given by kt+1 ht+1 yt+1 ct+1 = = = = {β [1 + A(κ∗ ) − δ(κ∗ )]}θ > 1. ht ht yt ct while the investment rate out of total resources is given by s = β θ [1 + A(κ∗ ) − δ(κ∗ )]θ−1 and the optimal ratio of physical to human capital is kt+1 /ht+1 = κ∗ . The growth rate is increasing in the productivity of either type of capital, increasing in the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, and decreasing in the discount rate. Economic Growth: Lecture Notes 6.2.2 Market Allocations • The household budget is given by ct + ikt + ith + (bt+1 − bt ) ≤ rt kt + Rt bt + wt ht . and the laws of motion for the two types of capital are kt+1 = (1−δk )kt +ikt and ht+1 = (1−δh )ht +ith . We can thus write the household budget as ct + kt+1 + ht+1 + bt+1 ≤ (1 + rt − δk )kt + (1 + wt − δh )ht + (1 + Rt )bt . Note that rt −δk and wt −δh represent the market returns to physical and human capital, respectively. • For an interior solution to the household’s problem, the Euler conditions give u� (ct ) = 1 + Rt = 1 + rt − δk = 1 + wt − δh . βu� (ct+1 ) • Firms are competitive and have access to the same technology F . The equilibrium rental rate of capital and the equilibrium wage rate are thus given by rt = Fk (κt , 1) and wt = Fh (κt , 1), where κt = kt /ht . • Combining the above with rt − δk = wt − δh from the household’s problem, we infer Fk (κt , 1) rt δh = = Fh (κt , 1) wt δk and therefore κt = κ∗ , as in the Pareto optimum. • It follows then that Rt = A(κ∗ ) − δ(κ∗ ) and that the the competitive market allocations coincide with the Pareto optimal plan. Once again, note that this is true only because the private and the social return to each type of capital coincide. Economic Growth: Lecture Notes 6.3 Learning by Education (Ozawa & Lucas) • The benefit of accumulating human capital is that it increases labor productivity. The cost of accumulating human capital is that it absorbs resources that could be used in the production of consumption goods or physical capital. • The previous analysis assumed that human capital is produced with the same technology as con­ sumption goods and physical capital. Perhaps a more realistic assumption is that the production of human capital is relative intensive in time and effort. Indeed, we can think of formal education as a choice between how much time to allocate to work (production) and how much to learning (education). notes to be completed 6.4 Learning by Doing and Spillovers (Arrow & Romer) 6.4.1 Market Allocations • Output for firm m is given by Ytm = F (Ktm , ht Ltm ) where ht represents the aggregate level of human capital or knowledge. • ht is endogenously determined in the economy (as we will specify in a moment how) but it is exogenous from the perspective of either firms or households. Economic Growth: Lecture Notes • Firm profits are given by m m m m Πm t = F (Kt , ht Lt ) − rt Kt − wt Lt The FOCs give rt = FK (Ktm , ht Lm t ) wt = FL (Ktm , ht Lm t ) ht Using the market clearing conditions for physical capital and labor, we infer Ktm /Lm t = kt , where kt is the aggregate capital labor ratio in the economy. We conclude that, given kt and ht , market prices are given by rt = FK (kt , ht ) = f � (κt ) wt = FL (kt , ht )ht = [f (κt ) − f � (κt )κt ]ht where f (κ) ≡ F (κ, 1) is the production function in intensive form and κt = kt /ht . • Households, like firms, take wt , rt and ht as exogenous to their decisions. The representative household maximizes utility subject to the budget constraint ct + kt+1 + bt+1 ≤ wt + (1 + rt − δ)kt + (1 + Rt )bt . Arbitrage between bonds and capital imply Rt = rt − δ, while the Euler condition gives u� (ct ) = β (1 + Rt ) = β(1 + rt − δ). u� (ct+1 ) • To close the model, we need to specify how ht is determined. Following Arrow and Romer, we assume that knowledge accumulation is the unintentional by-product of learning-by-doing in production. We thus let the level of knowledge to be proportional to either the level of output, or the level of capital: ht = ηkt , for some constant η > 0. Economic Growth: Lecture Notes • It follows that the ratio kt /ht = κt is pinned down by κt = 1/η. Letting the constants A and ω be defined A ≡ f � (1/η) and ω ≡ f (1/η)η − f � (1/η), we infer that equilibrium prices are given by rt = A and wt = ωkt . Substituting into the Euler condition gives u� (ct ) = β (1 + A − δ) . u� (ct+1 ) • Finally, it is immediate that capital and output grow at the same rate as consumption. Proposition 23 Let A ≡ f � (1/η) and ω ≡ f (1/η)η−f � (1/η), and suppose β (1 + A − δ) > 1 > β θ (1 + A − δ)θ−1 . Then, the market economy exhibits a balanced growth path. Physical capital, knowledge, output, wages, and consumption all grow at a constant rate given by yt+1 ct+1 = = [β (1 + A − δ)]θ > 1. yt ct The wage rate is given by wt = ωkt , while the investment rate out of total resources is given by s = β θ (1 + A − δ)θ−1 . Economic Growth: Lecture Notes 6.4.2 Pareto Allocations and Policy Implications • Consider now the Pareto optimal allocations. The social planner recognizes that knowledge in the economy is proportional to physical capital and internalizes the effect of learning-by-doing. He thus understands that output is given by yt = F (kt , ht ) = A∗ kt where A∗ ≡ f (1/η)η = A + ω represents the social return on capital. It is therefore as if the social planner had access to a linear technology like in the simple Ak model, and therefore the Euler condition for the social planner is given by u� (ct ) = β (1 + A∗ − δ) . u� (ct+1 ) • The social return to capital is higher than the private (market) return to capital: A∗ > A = rt The difference is ω, the fraction of the social return on saving that is “wasted” as labor income. Proposition 24 Let A∗ ≡ A + ω ≡ f (1/η)η and suppose β (1 + A∗ − δ) > 1 > β θ (1 + A∗ − δ)θ−1 . Then, the Pareto optimal plan exhibits a balanced growth path. Physical capital, knowledge, output, wages, and consumption all grow at a constant rate given by yt+1 ct+1 = = [β (1 + A∗ − δ)]θ > 1. yt ct Note that A < A∗ , and therefore the market growth rate is lower than the Pareto optimal one. • Exercise: Reconsider the market allocation and suppose the government intervenes by subsidizing either private savings or firm investment. Find, in each case, what is the subsidy that implements the optimal growth rate. Is this subsidy the optimal one, in the sense that it maximizes social welfare?