University:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Course:
22.38 | Probability and Its Applications to Reliability, Quality Control, and Risk Assessment
Academic year:

2024
Views:

382

Pages:

2
Author:

redonetas7o1

THE PROBLEM OF IMPROVING OPERATIONAL AVAILABILITY, A • A Rationale for Resource Allocation in Managing Availability: Seek a Rank List of the Causes of Lost Availability, A, in the Order of Marginal Cost of Availability Improvement (the availability improved due to a unit expenditure): ΔA  ΔA   Δri  Marginal Cost = =  ⋅  , where Δ$  Δri   Δ$i  ↑ ith component reliability Availability sensitivity to ith component ↑ reliability improvement, sometimes known improvement due to a unit expenditure, usually unknown ri = expected reliability of ith source of lost availability, and $i = money spent to improve expected reliability of ith source of lost availability ∂A • Spend Resources in Descending Order of (note, often needed data ∂$i are not available, and surrogates are supplied via staff meetings and other subjective processes) 6-1 PLANT INVESTMENT DECISIONS Decision Bases - Failures Plant specific data Can be combined via Bayesian methods Generic data Feared consequences Decision Bases - Benefits Avoiding costly failures Improved electrical output Reduced human errors and mechanical failures Increased worker comfort, morale Decision Process — can be restructured probabilistically, and can reflect decision-maker beliefs. Group discussion Factors: costs, benefits, data, uncertainties PDF, f(B) Net Benefits (B) 6-2