A Note on the Cyclical Behavior of Sectoral (Tables)

Table 1. Sectoral share (%) in total nonfarm employment: 1958:Q1 – 2014:Q2 Min Beginning of the sample period: (1958:Q1) End of the sample period: (2014:Q2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0.04 0.18 0.04 0.17 0.04 0.76 0.28 1.44 0.38 1.44 0.61 Construction 4.96 0.41 5.78 4.18 5.53 4.34 Durable goods 11.23 3.81 17.12 5.41 16.82 5.52 Nondurable goods 7.24 2.72 12.05 3.23 12.03 3.23 Wholesale trade 4.71 0.27 5.11 4.19 4.94 4.23 Retail trade 11.21 0.62 12.19 10.15 10.22 11.07 Transportation and utility 4.11 0.50 5.61 3.63 5.61 3.72 Information 2.60 0.32 3.30 1.92 3.30 1.92 Financial activities 5.57 0.55 6.27 4.57 4.61 5.73 Professional and business services 9.69 2.31 13.83 6.68 6.68 13.83 Education and health services 9.48 3.11 15.48 5.18 5.18 15.46 Leisure and hospitality 8.09 1.28 10.54 6.27 6.27 10.54 Other services 3.30 0.72 4.16 2.03 2.03 3.98 Total private 83.05 0.90 84.83 80.66 84.83 84.20 Government 16.95 0.90 19.34 15.17 15.17 15.80 Goods-producing 24.29 6.99 36.19 13.65 35.99 13.73 Private service-providing 58.77 7.26 70.47 48.58 48.84 70.47 Mean Standard deviation Max (1) (2) Logging 0.09 Mining Sector Table 2. Relative volatility and comovements of the cyclical components of sectoral employment with real GDP: 1958:Q1 – 2014:Q2 Sector Relative volatility Correlation of the cyclical component of real GDP (yt) with that of employment (et+k) at various lags and leads (-6) (-5) (-4) (-3) (-2) (-1) (0) (+1) (+2) (+3) (+4) (+5) (+6) Logging 2.44 -0.04 0.02 0.11 0.24 0.41 0.55 0.63 0.62 0.52 0.38 0.21 0.06 -0.09 Mining 2.75 -0.31 -0.36 -0.39 -0.36 -0.27 -0.13 0.07 0.18 0.27 0.33 0.34 0.29 0.23 Construction 2.70 -0.17 -0.05 0.09 0.26 0.45 0.63 0.77 0.81 0.78 0.68 0.54 0.38 0.20 Durable goods 2.22 -0.30 -0.19 -0.05 0.13 0.36 0.60 0.81 0.89 0.86 0.75 0.57 0.37 0.17 Nondurable goods 0.94 -0.24 -0.14 -0.01 0.18 0.40 0.63 0.80 0.84 0.77 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.02 Wholesale trade 1.04 -0.31 -0.22 -0.09 0.08 0.26 0.46 0.64 0.75 0.78 0.74 0.63 0.50 0.34 Retail trade 0.87 -0.17 -0.04 0.11 0.27 0.46 0.64 0.79 0.83 0.79 0.68 0.52 0.35 0.18 Transportation and utility 1.07 -0.31 -0.22 -0.12 0.02 0.21 0.43 0.65 0.78 0.82 0.78 0.68 0.54 0.37 Information 1.36 -0.41 -0.33 -0.23 -0.07 0.13 0.36 0.58 0.71 0.76 0.73 0.64 0.51 0.37 Financial activities 0.76 -0.17 -0.08 0.02 0.13 0.26 0.38 0.49 0.56 0.58 0.56 0.52 0.45 0.36 Professional and business services 1.13 -0.24 -0.14 -0.01 0.15 0.33 0.51 0.66 0.73 0.72 0.65 0.53 0.40 0.25 Education and healthcare services 0.43 -0.43 -0.37 -0.29 -0.16 -0.01 0.16 0.33 0.44 0.50 0.51 0.49 0.45 0.38 Leisure and hospitality 0.77 -0.19 -0.06 0.07 0.24 0.42 0.61 0.76 0.81 0.78 0.68 0.54 0.37 0.21 Other services 0.59 -0.37 -0.31 -0.22 -0.09 0.07 0.26 0.44 0.55 0.60 0.60 0.55 0.47 0.38 Total private 1.03 -0.31 -0.19 -0.04 0.15 0.37 0.61 0.81 0.89 0.87 0.77 0.61 0.43 0.24 Government 0.49 -0.36 -0.29 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.09 0.17 0.25 0.33 0.42 0.48 0.53 0.55 Total nonfarm 0.88 -0.33 -0.21 -0.06 0.13 0.36 0.60 0.80 0.89 0.88 0.79 0.64 0.47 0.29 Goods producing 1.86 -0.27 -0.16 -0.02 0.16 0.38 0.62 0.82 0.89 0.86 0.74 0.57 0.38 0.18 Private service providing 0.74 -0.30 -0.18 -0.04 0.13 0.34 0.55 0.74 0.83 0.84 0.77 0.64 0.49 0.33 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 90 95 00 05 10 90 95 00 Logging 16 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 -20 -24 60 65 70 75 80 85 Mining 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 60 65 70 75 80 85 05 10 Cons truc tion 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 Durable Goods Figure 1. H-P filtered cyclical components of real GDP and employment: 1958 - 2014 Real GDP ____________________ Employment _________________________ 10 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 95 00 05 10 95 00 05 10 95 00 05 Nondurable goods 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 W holes ale trade 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Retial trade 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 10 Trans portation and utility Figure 1.(contd.) H-P filtered cyclical components of real GDP and employment:1958-2014 Real GDP ____________________ Employment _________________________ 8 4 0 -4 -8 -12 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Information 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 95 00 05 10 00 05 10 Financ ial A c tivities 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Profes s ional and bus ines s s ervic es 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Educ ation and health Figure 1.(contd.) H-P filtered cyclical components of real GDP and employment:1958-2014 Real GDP ____________________ Employment _________________________ 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 95 00 05 10 95 00 05 10 95 00 05 10 Leisure and hospitality 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Other s ervic es 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Total private nonfarm 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Government Figure 1. (contd.) H-P filtered cyclical components of real GDP and employment: 1958 - 2014 Real GDP ____________________ Employment _________________________ Logging Mining 2.8 2.4 Cons truc tion 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 Durable goods 3.0 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 0.8 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 65 70 Nondurable goods 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 1.0 0.5 60 65 70 75 W holes ale trade 1.2 1.8 1.1 1.6 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.7 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 65 Retail trade 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 05 10 T ransportation and utility 1.4 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.6 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0.6 60 65 70 Information 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0.8 60 Financ ial activities 2.4 1.2 2.0 1.0 1.6 0.8 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 Professional and business services 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Education and healthcare services 2.4 1.0 2.0 0.8 1.6 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.4 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0.4 0.8 0.4 60 65 70 75 Leis ure and hos pitality 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0.2 60 65 70 Other s ervic es 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 65 70 75 T otal private nonfarm 85 90 95 00 05 10 95 00 05 10 Government 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.9 80 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.2 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0.5 0.8 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 0.4 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Figure 2. Rolling standard deviation of the cyclical components of sectoral employment relative to that of real GDP (20-year rolling window) Logging Mining Cons truc tion Durable goods .6 .8 .4 .2 .6 .8 .8 .6 .6 .4 .4 .0 .4 -.2 .2 -.4 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 .2 60 65 70 Nondurable goods 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 .2 60 65 70 75 Wholes ale trade 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 Retail trade .8 .8 .8 .6 .6 .6 .6 .4 .4 .4 .4 .2 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 .2 60 65 70 Information 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 05 10 T rans portation and utility .8 .2 65 .2 60 Financial ac tivities 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 Professional and business services 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Education and healthcare services .8 .8 .8 .8 .6 .6 .6 .4 .4 .4 .2 .2 .2 .4 .0 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 65 70 75 Leisure and hos pitality 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 -.4 -.8 60 65 70 Other s ervic es 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 65 70 75 T otal private nonfarm 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 95 00 05 10 Government .6 .8 .8 .8 .6 .6 .6 .4 .4 .4 .4 .2 .0 -.2 .2 .2 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 .2 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 -.4 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Figure 3. Rolling correlations between the cyclical components of sectoral employment and that of real GDP (20-year rolling window)