Economical forecast ● Studies were often found incorrect ○ 60s-70s study about economy ● When gathering data long term, economic forecast is no use ○ Over relying on mathematical models ○ May mislead the whole study ■ ex) ● Fall of USSR ● Oil Crisis ● Chinese increase in power ■ Missed ● Technology shift ● Economic reformation ■ Is focused in trend ■ Formulas and study weak/biased ● Oil shock and USSR ● Did not account for sudden change ○ Wars, Politics ● Focused mainly on big powers ○ unable to forecast future bumps ○ Ignoring emerging nations ○ Status overturned ○ Narrow logic ● Global trades ● Info flows ● Migration ○ New shift can interfere course continuously ● US dominates ○ top 30% but dropping to 26% in 2024 ● Chinese market around 10% in 2000s ○ Increase to 17% ○ Steady decrease in economy in EU and Japan ■ environmental restriciton? ■ japanese had real estate shock ● bubble economy ● Banking crisis ● South Korea, Chinese gain in manufacturing infrastructure ● Loosing early advantage in technology