The Effects of Climate Change in the Fourteenth Century

CLIMATE CHANGE and PLAGUE in the FOURTEENTH CENTURY HIST 1301 | History The Effects of Climate Change in the Fourteenth Century One of the biggest obstacles to understanding how climate change has affected historical events is the scarcity of conventional historical materials. There is frequently little information on the changes in the environment in previous centuries found in texts and other recorded source sources. In order to get beyond these obstacles, historical climatology focuses on reassembling, evaluating, and contrasting previous climates with current circumstances. This approach enables researchers to broaden the conventional source base of historical study. In addition to scientific data derived from tree rings and organic material trapped beneath ice sheets in various parts of the world, which provide information about past temperature fluctuations and rainfall patterns, historians examine references to crop yields and weather fluctuations in weather journals and tax records. Scholars have been able to determine the ways that environmental factors and patterns of human migration and settlement have combined to form human history via the study of such historical hints concealed in the natural world. A sequence of peculiar climate shifts during the disastrous fourteenth century set off a series of events that resulted in resource rivalry and frantic attempts to lessen the devastation and hopelessness that characterised the opening decades of the century. Subtle variations in the average worldwide temperature and precipitation around the start of the fourteenth century significantly affected the climate of the Northern Hemisphere, causing catastrophic plagues and famines throughout Afro-Eurasia. Significant human suffering, interrupted trade, and the fall of once-powerful empires—including the supposedly unbreakable Mongol dynasty—were all consequences of these events. Even though premodern humans were not aware of these remarkable changes in the environment, they had an impact on their existence nonetheless. In a time when a large number of people relied on subsistence farming, even a little alteration in the seasonal weather patterns may destroy crops and cause widespread famine and malnourishment. Due to weakened immune systems brought on by inadequate nutrition, squalid living conditions in mediaeval towns, and other factors, a great number of people were presumably more susceptible to the devastating effects of epidemic illnesses. This was particularly true by the middle of the century when the bubonic plague swept over most of Afro-Eurasia. We need to comprehend how the significant climatic shifts of the fourteenth century link to broader climate patterns in order to contextualise them. Long-term weather variations, characterised by alternating periods of relative warmth and cold spanning hundreds of years, have long been woven into the tale of Earth's natural history and biological landscape. Rapid shifts in wind patterns, ocean currents, and seismic activity have also led to less predictable short-term swings within these longer periods of slow climatological change. Occasionally, these unpredictable changes in the climate led to catastrophic reversals of normal weather patterns. The Little Ice Age, which impacted most of the Northern Hemisphere during an exceptionally cold time in the fourteenth century, caused notable changes in average yearly temperature as well as regular rainfall. The low temperatures and, in some places, droughts, which were caused by the Mediaeval Warm Period—a period of more temperate climate that spanned the world from the tenth to the thirteenth century—dramatically decreased the amount of resources and food supplies that were accessible. A major source of suffering and financial anguish, food shortages were made worse by growing population numbers and decreased agricultural output. Famine grew more frequent and resource rivalry increased. The causes of the Little Ice Age are still up for debate, but some theories include modifications to ocean circulation patterns, adjustments to the earth's orbit, and multiple large-scale volcanic eruptions in the tropics at the end of the thirteenth century that released clouds of sulphate particles into the atmosphere and reflected solar radiation back into space. In the end, these changes in the environment led to the advance of mountain glaciers and a 0.6°C decline in the mean world temperature (that dropped by up to two degrees in some places). Although this decline might not seem like much, during the first few decades of the fourteenth century, it resulted in catastrophic crop failures and severe hunger in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere due to the lack of modern agricultural and irrigation systems. Furthermore, the world's glaciers were growing faster than ever before, which had an impact on many areas as less water could evaporate and become rain when more water converted to ice. Even regions far from glacier ranges had protracted droughts as a result. The Little Ice Age's impacts were not felt everywhere, despite their widespread influence. While cold weather and the freezing of lakes and rivers were particularly noticeable in China and northern Europe, agricultural yields were drastically impacted in the Mediterranean and West Africa by periods of drought and erratic rainfall. In 1314, unusual rains started to fall in other parts of Europe and Asia, bringing with them a spell of unusually cold and wet winters. Due to the extreme amount of precipitation, individuals found it difficult to cultivate already overworked land, which led to low yields. Evidence points to the North American interior suffering from the collapse of existing agricultural systems brought on by hotter summers with less precipitation and colder winters, which resulted in a significant loss of people in the southwest area, outside of AfroEurasia. The Little Ice Age left terrible impacts in the 1300s, but its ramifications lasted for many centuries. Climate change in the late mediaeval period not only affected agriculture directly but also resulted in longer-term deforestation since more wood was utilised for warmth, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. The change in climate not only resulted in modifications to building plans and clothing styles to accommodate lower temperatures, but in certain regions it also marked the beginning of human dependence on fossil fuels and the eventual use of coal for heating. Much of Europe north of the Alps, an area of around 400,000 square miles, experienced the Great Famine of 1315–1317 as a direct effect of the Little Ice Age. One of the greatest population falls in recorded European history was brought on by this extensive and protracted food scarcity. Although the precise death toll is very hard to determine, it is most probable that up to 10% of the over thirty million people living in northern Europe perished. Crop yields did not recover to prefamine levels for several years, even though they started to rise again in 1317. Prolonged food shortages not only caused terrible human misery and fatalities, but they also contributed to widespread political and economic instability. Grain and other essential food staples were extremely expensive, and competition for few resources led to social unrest, violence, and a rise in crime. In the end, the Great Famine made many doubt the capacity of kings and church authorities to handle emergencies and tragedies, which negatively impacted the public's long-term faith in these institutions. The majority of people had no choice but to migrate in quest of better conditions because there were few practical ways to undo the destruction caused by years of bad weather and starvation. Scapegoating occasionally resulted from the era's general worry and social unrest, including the prosecution of alleged witches on the grounds that they were capable of manipulating the weather to hurt other people. Historians have linked rises in witch-hunting activity to the peaks of the Little Ice Age. This kind of persecution shows the desperation many must have felt in the midst of constant conflict, even if it was by no means widespread.