Lecture 3: Intelligence Planning

INMS 600 Lecture 3: Intelligence Planning This week we review the fundamentals of the Intelligence Community to include its organization, planning, vision, missions, resources, funding, and human capital processes. “You cannot escape the responsibility of tomorrow by evading it today.” - Abraham Lincoln Organizational Planning Planning is an initial managerial function. A manager has the responsibility of steering the ship, setting the course, and providing the vector to effectively plan. The planning process is translating strategic goals via vision and mission statements enabling a more systemic management of resources and human capital. The planning documents that collectively convey an organization’s approach to meeting its mission responsibilities is generally known as the organization’s strategy. Planning Process • The manager provides the vision in order to accomplish the organization’s mission and goals. • The Strategy operationalizes the plan and reflects the vision of the organization’s leadership. • The mission describes the organization’s functional responsibilities and jurisdiction. Strategy generally consists of the organization’s strategic plan and all derived planning documents – program plans, resource plans, workforce plans and technical plans. The strategy tells how the current leadership intends to accomplish the mission. For example, the National Intelligence Strategy (NIS) provides the intelligence community (IC) with the direction of the Director of National Intelligence. The NIS supports the National Security Strategy priorities; all IC activities support these priorities and comply with the Constitution. The NIS is updated every four years. The mission describes what the organization is responsible for in executing its activities. Goal accomplishment and achievement drive the mission. Goals are usually set in advance and describe where the organization is going and will be doing in 1 the future. In the IC, goals guide the planning, programming, and budgeting process which has a two-to-five-year lead-time. The NIS contains the IC Vision, IC Mission, and outlines the IC’s operational priorities. An organization’s mission statement should clearly communicate what it does. Vision and Mission Statements The critical first step in planning is the determination and articulation of a vision. The mission is the cause and the vision are the effect. This is a challenge at all organizational levels. In his book, Obama’s Wars, Bob Woodward (2010) reported how the president in 2009 sought from his soonto-be national security advisor, General James Jones, a vision for the National Security Council (NSC). General Jones observed the Bush NSC up close and assessed it was understaffed, under-resourced and deeply dysfunctional. The national security advisor had little clout and failed to think strategically by plotting out the detailed steps and plans of national security policy. This was the biggest missing piece in the Bush administration. The national security advisor had to develop metrics to ensure reasonable progress was being made toward accomplishing these goals. Too much policy had been on automatic pilot. The 1General James Jones national security advisor had to find a way to get results without micromanaging the departments and agencies. General Jones advised President Obama to have a clear vision and demonstrate to his staff that they had a stake in national security policy. They had to feel that their contributions mattered and had value. For example, President Bush conducted secure video conferences every two weeks with the leaders of Afghanistan and Iraq. That meant no one else in the U.S. government had any real leverage or could speak with authority. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki always insisted on taking any dispute directly to President Bush, who effectively had national security responsibility for the Afghanistan and Iraq accounts, and operated deeply in the weeds below his pay grade. The critical components of mission success are organizational, resource and human capital planning. An organization’s core purpose and focus are the foundation on which it is built. This is crafted in the mission statement. In reviewing the mission statements of a diverse group of IC members, it is apparent that each has their unique specialty: • Intelligence Community Mission: Provide timely, insightful, objective, and relevant intelligence and support to inform the national security decision to protect our nation and 2 its interests. • ODNI Mission: Lead and support Intelligence Community integration; delivering insights, driving capabilities, and investing in the future. • CIA Mission: Preempt threats and further US national security objectives by collecting intelligence that matters, producing objective all-source analysis, conducting effective covert action as directed by the President, and safeguarding the secrets that help keep our Nation safe. • NSA Mission: The National Security Agency/Central Security Service (NSA/CSS) leads the U.S. Government in cryptology that encompasses both signals intelligence (SIGINT) and information assurance (now referred to as cybersecurity) products and services, and enables computer network operations (CNO) in order to gain a decision advantage for the Nation and our allies under all circumstances. • NGA Mission: NGA's mission is to provide timely, relevant, and accurate geospatial intelligence in support of national security. • DIA Mission: Provide intelligence on foreign militaries to prevent and decisively win wars. • FBI Mission: To protect the American people and uphold the Constitution of the United States. • DHS Mission: With honor and integrity, we will safeguard the American people, our homeland, and our values. The mission is to be accomplished and the vision is to be pursued for the accomplishment. For example, NSA’s mission is cryptology and it supports the vision of gaining a decision advantage for the nation. Planning Organizational Missions and Functions One important aspect of planning an organization’s mission and functions is to insure its uniqueness. If an organization is perceived to be similar to another, it may be viewed as duplicative and wasteful of taxpayers’ dollars. This is true at the federal and local levels of government. In times of constrained government budgets, financial managers may act without full understanding of the circumstances or rationale underlying an organization’s existence. Leaders must recognize the need for change and lead people through these changes. The leader ensures that their organization’s mission is well justified, transparent, well publicized, and distinctive from other organizations. While private sector organizations are not dependent upon taxpayer dollars, the same principle holds true in resource management. A dollar of cost is not a dollar of profit. 3 The overlap, redundancy and conflict between organizations and agencies within the IC are legendary. Perhaps the most significant in terms of resources is the overlap between the DNI and the Secretary of Defense. The DNI is the president’s intelligence advisor and the leader of the Intelligence Community. However, the Secretary of Defense is the government’s executive agent for the Combat Support Agencies (CSA) that includes the National Security Agency (NSA), Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA). The National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) originally a covert joint CIA-Defense organization, has been re-defined as a defense department agency and obliged to follow DoD Directives. The NGA was formed out of elements of CIA’s National Photographic Interpretation Center (NPIC) originally established to exploit satellite imagery, and the imagery elements of the DIA which handled U-2 and other airborne reconnaissance imagery, and the Defense Mapping Agency. This reorganization was influenced by new technologies when satellites migrated from hardcopy film to downlinked digital imagery which streamlined and expedited the tasking-collection-exploitationdissemination process and required less manpower. Under the ODNI, the development of national intelligence centers combined and coordinated efforts of a wide variety of organizations working on specific target sets. In some instances, these centers were new, such as the National Counterterrorism Center and the National Counterproliferation Center. In other cases, existing intelligence organizations were redesignated as national centers, such as the National Maritime Intelligence Center at Suitland, Maryland, and the National Center for Medical Intelligence at Fort Detrick, Maryland. For example, considerable overlap exists with the counterterrorism mission. While the DNI’s National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) is designated the focal point for all terrorism reporting and analysis, other critical functions are delegated to other IC agencies. For example, the NCTC maintains the basic database on suspected worldwide terrorists (Terrorist Identities Datamart Environment – TIDE), the FBI operates the Terrorist Screening Center (TSC), which is a multiagency center administered by the FBI. The TSC is a vital part of the U.S. Government’s counterterrorism early warning and interdiction network, and responsible for the management and operation of the Terrorist Screening Database, which maintains the No-Fly List of people prohibited from boarding U.S. 4 airliners. The TSC is physically located at the NCTC, but collocated entities are not integrated entities, and differences exist in authorities, personnel, policies, and operating procedures. Dissemination of terror related intelligence to the states and local authorities is shared between the Department of Homeland Security and the FBI. The reporting of domestic intelligence from federal or state or local authorities follows many paths, depending upon which agency collected the information. Sharing among agencies remains problematic. For example, there are several other federal intelligence agencies and organizations, including the El Paso Intelligence Center (EPIC), a multiagency counter drug center run jointly by the Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) and DHS, and the interagency National Gang Intelligence Center; organizations that are significant users of intelligence. These local fusion centers may have intelligence not available at the federal level, and vice versa. Overlap in mission also occurs in the field of counterintelligence. While the DNI’s National counterintelligence Executive (NCIX) is the designated principal for counterintelligence, many capabilities also reside within the various federal departments and agencies. CIA is principal agency for counterintelligence overseas, and the FBI domestically. In the past, this has led to problems with counterespionage investigations when a suspect relocated either from or to the United States. For example, in the case of CIA traitor Aldridge Ames who was a 31-year veteran of the CIA and Russian spy. Each major DoD entity also maintains counterintelligence capabilities that are focused on their own organizations. Overlap in missions and functions can lead to managerial challenges related to collaboration, sharing, de-confliction of operations, and other activities. Increasingly, corporations are developing counterintelligence capabilities to protect their infrastructure, intellectual property, and products from state or corporate adversaries. Resource Planning One of the principal responsibilities of a manager is to obtain the necessary resources and, in all venues, this requires careful planning. Resources involve physical assets, money, and personnel. Physical assets and infrastructure already exist. Money purchases future assets or capabilities. People perform future tasks. 5 The vast majority of intelligence personnel and budget are managed by the DoD under the daily management control of the Secretary of Defense and not the Director of National Intelligence. For example, the Defense Civilian Intelligence Personnel System (DCIPS) is the human resources management system for the DoD intelligence components and other intelligence positions as designated by the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence (USD(I)). The Department of Defense Intelligence Components are organizations that perform national intelligence, defense intelligence, and intelligence-related functions such as NSA, NGA, NRO, DIA and the military services intelligence organizations. DCIPS is part of the initiative to establish common standards for the IC’s personnel as described in the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act (IRTPA) of 2004. It is a single human resources system for Defense intelligence that appropriately recognizes and rewards employee’s performance and contributions. It is intended to better manage the intelligence work force to attract and retain high-quality employees. Intelligence Funding In review, US intelligence activities are funded in several ways and can be a very complicated topic due to the security classification of programs. There are two principal intelligence budget programs, the National Intelligence Program (NIP) and the Military Intelligence Program (MIP), and additional funding comes from parent departments for some activities. The major program for funding national intelligence activities is the NIP. It funds the intelligence activities in six Federal Departments, the CIA and ODNI. Managed by the DNI, it funds activities that support multiple customers for intelligence across the government. The goals, objectives and strategy for the NIP are developed each year by the Intelligence Resources Board, a collaborative body of senior ODNI officials. The Associate DNI and Chief Financial Officer administer the budget and its execution with Congressional oversight and approval. The MIP program and budget is developed by the Under Secretary of Defense (Intelligence). The Pentagon requested $22.95 billion for the Military Intelligence Program (MIP) to fund military 6 intelligence activities in fiscal year 2020, an increase of $2.25 billion over the previous year. For fiscal year 2019, the request was for $21.2 billion; $20.7 billion in fiscal 2018; and $16.8 billion in fiscal 2017. The MIP includes funding divided between the Pentagon's base budget and the separate account for Overseas Contingency Operations, which is not subject to spending caps under the Budget Control Act. In other departments, budgets are developed in accordance with each department’s policies and The Military Intelligence Program (MIP) includes the following programs: Army MIP: This program funds tactical intelligence activities. It includes collection of HUMINT, SIGINT, GEOINT and MASINT by tactical units and the deployable infrastructure necessary to support ground forces in the field with intelligence collected by national systems, such as satellites. Navy MIP: This program funds the collection of intelligence from naval aircraft, ships and submarines, as well as the infrastructure needed to disseminate intelligence among ships in the fleet. Air Force MIP: This program funds tactical Air Force intelligence activities, including SIGINT, imagery, and MASINT collection from aircraft (e.g., U-2, RC-135 Rivet Joint) and unmanned aerial vehicles (e.g., Global Hawk and Predator). This funding is committed to supporting Air Force military intelligence activities such as intelligence, surveillance and USAF Global Hawk reconnaissance. Marine Corps MIP: Like the other Service programs, this program funds Marine Corps tactical intelligence collection and deployable field processing elements for SIGINT, GEOINT and MASINT. Defense-Wide MIP: This program funds a multiplicity of activities in the Defense Systems Information Agency (DISA), DIA, NGA, NSA, NRO, the Defense Security Service (DSS), the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), and the US Special Operations Command (USSOCOM). All intelligence budgets are included in the annual budget proposed by the President. The President’s budget is compiled by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in the Executive Office of the President. There is a small staff within OMB that deals with all aspects of intelligence funding. Most of the NIP budget has been hidden within the larger DoD budget This was done to prevent disclosure of the details of intelligence spending. 7 The Department of Defense’s Planning , Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) system is complex. Combined with the government’s use of appropriating funds by fiscal year, this presents a challenge to managers in planning for future resources. Funding appropriated for one fiscal year cannot be transferred automatically to another fiscal year. A manager is responsible for spending funds for the current fiscal year, awaiting Congressional approval of funds for the upcoming fiscal year, and planning for needed resources in future fiscal out years. In the private sector, a manager must make a fundamental build or buy decision – that is whether to create a capability or buy the capability or service from a contractor. As there are companies that conduct market research and business intelligence, with specialized expertise and analytic capabilities, purchasing their services may be more cost-effective than establishing and maintaining an in-house business intelligence unit. The federal budget planning process is long and complex. We will re-visit this issue later in the course and in greater detail in INMS 650. Planning for Human Capital Planning for human capital is fundamental for management, especially in fields like intelligence that depend upon a skilled and trained workforce. Managers must plan for the recruitment of new talent, the retention of existing, trained personnel, and for succession of expertise in critical jobs to account for personnel loss or turnover. According to leaders in the national agencies, the process for hiring qualified people is time-consuming and difficult. For example, analytical training has always been a priority in the IC. The Kent School at CIA University provides courses on advanced analytical techniques for analysts at CIA and other IC agencies. Training for analysts in the law enforcement and homeland security fields has been problematic, especially in state and regional fusion centers. This has greatly improved with training programs such as the DHS Intelligence Training Academy which develops and delivers intelligence training programs for the Homeland Security agency. Senior IC leaders advocate that special attention should be paid to managing the analyst cadre since analysts' have a critical skill set. Leaders need to consider focusing on managing the careers of these specialists for the long term, focusing particularly on those who demonstrate special talents as they are of value to intelligence agencies. Planning for leadership is a continuing challenge. 8 Human capital is central to the DNI's National Intelligence Strategy. Finding and retaining first quality people in the community is key. As analysis is an intellectual process, imagination and innovation are important qualities for a manager to foster. Casper Weinberger, the former Secretary of Defense, was known to complain that his job did not permit him the time to think. In the current international security environment as described in both the National Intelligence Strategy and the President's current National Security Strategy, there is an ever-growing for talented, smart, and dedicated personnel to serve national security. "Achieving farsightedness/vision is very hard but important in intelligence planning. As intelligence is the first line of defense for the nation, the consequences of not doing this are significant." - Retired Admiral William O. Studeman, former Director of Naval Intelligence and Deputy Director of CIA 9