Geography, Environment, and Climate

Geography, Environment, and Climate 2022 Geography, environment, and climate • 3 tightly connected aspects (GEC): 1. (Physical) geography: structures and patterns of the natural space. 2. (Biological) environment: all living species in a region. 3. Climate: long-term patterns of weather. • Separation among these three elements is artificial. • For example, geography textbooks will include treatments of environment and climate. • And, more in general, we are affected by events in our solar system (sun flares, meteorites,..) that are hard to fit in the elements above. • But I find the breakdown useful to organize my presentation. 1 GEC and economic history I • We want to relate GEC with economic history and growth. • How do GEC affect humans? • At a very fundamental level, GEC determined our evolution as a species and, hence, all economic growth. • Three correlated factors induced a deep evolutionary change: 1. East African rift. 2. Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau. 3. Closing of the Indonesian seaway. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 GEC and economic history II • More recently, geology, terrain, temperature, rainfall, vegetation, and ecology shape how we organize our economic life: natural resources, transportation, and physical and biological hazards. • GEC even affects our bodies through the high plasticity of our bones. • And, indirectly, our brains: 1. Farmers vs. hunter-gatherers. 2. WEIRD (Western, educated, and from industrialized, rich, and democratic countries). Examples with: 2.1 Ultimatum game. 2.2 Discounting. 2.3 Kinship relations. 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 GEC and economic history III • More interestingly even, how do humans affect GEC? • Many scientists like to talk about the “anthropocene” as a new geological epoch where the presence of humans is fundamentally changing the earth. • A striking example: the scarcity of low-background steel for detecting radionuclides. 18 Three Gorges dam 19 20 21 22 Our investigation • Not your traditional geography or social studies class back in high school. • Also, we will not postulate a deterministic relation between GEC and outcomes but a distribution of probabilities. • Modern study in economics and history: 1. New growth theory. 2. Environmental history. • Let’s see some evidence. But remember: “Every map is a lie” (Attila Bátorfy). 23 A world map 24 Latitude vs. income per capita 25 Latitude vs. agricultural GDP per worker 26 Natural capital vs. income per capita 27 Access to sea vs. income per capita 28 Geography Geography • Key role of plate tectonics in human history. • Examples: 1. Europe is 1/8th of the size of Africa, but the coastline is 50 percent longer. 2. Plants of civilization: wheat, rice, and maize⇒Fernand Braudel, Les Structures du quotidien: le possible et l’impossible (1979). 3. De Gaulle’s memoirs: “Mr. Churchill and I agreed modestly in drawing from the events which had smashed the West this banal but definitive conclusion: when all is said and done, Great Britain is an island; France, the cape of a continent; the United States, another world.” • What are the consequences? 29 30 31 Le Général 32 Europe or sub-Saharan Africa. China is over 90% Han Chinese, and the same dynasties have ruled over the wheat and rice cores for most of Rice vs. wheat I Second, pathogen prevalence theory predicts a gradual rise in interdependence from north to south because pathogens rise gradually along with could find with disease rates inces, from 1976 (15). Because not cover 10 provinces, we als statistics (13). This increased t provinces. Both sources gave higher disease in the south and southwest. Samples We tested 1162 Han Chinese stu Beijing (north), Fujian (south (south), Yunnan (southwest), S tral), and Liaoning (northeas measures: a measure of cultura individualism, and loyalty/nepo low). We chose these tasks be self-report scales, avoiding the lems with use of self-report sca tural differences (16). Results from these differe rice-wheat differences held re site (14). For all tasks, we ana Han Chinese and excluded Han the provinces of Tibet, Inne Xinjiang. These areas are hi areas and have different eth languages, and religions that our comparisons of rice and w We tested the hypothese models because participants (le within provinces (level 2).33We Rice vs. wheat II Departments of Psychology and Economics, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada V6T 1N5. E-mail: henrich@psych.ubc.ca the basis of logical rules. Trends are ex to be cyclical. Measuring analytic thinking with triads Measuring individualism Relationship between self and frien Does the rabbit go with the dog or the carrot? B Individualistic answer Me Analytical answer A REDIT: P. HUEY/SCIENCE Holistic answer C B Collectivistic answer Me A C 34 Traditional geographical explanations • Climate. Montesquieu, The Spirit of the Laws (1748) (he was a wine grower). A cold climate is good for growth; warm climates are bad: North Europe was a backwater region until the late middle ages. Comparison with Fertile Crescent and Nile valley. • Low land river valleys in dry climates: 1. Problems with Fertile Crescent: food production appears in hills. States and bureaucracy only follow agriculture for some time. 2. Relation with “hydraulic-bureaucratic official-state,” Karl Wittfogel, Oriental Despotism: A Comparative Study of Total Power (1957). • Geographical determinism: Ellsworth Huntington (1876-1947). • Geopolitics: Mackinder, Mahan, Kjellén, Haushofer. 35 36 37 38 The Geographical Pivot of History, Halford J. Mackinder 39 The Influence of Sea Power Upon History, 1660-1783, Alfred Thayer Mahan 40 Possibility I: Political division is good Eric Jones, The European Miracle (2003)⇒ geography again, hypothesis 1. • We already argued that China versus Europe. • Why is political division good? 1. Competition. 2. Robustness. 41 Empirical evidence I: China • Emperor Qiánlóng (1736-1799) ordered the compilation of the most famous works of the Chinese past: Four Treasuries (classics, history, philosophy, literary works). • Enormous work: 36,000 manuscript volumes. • To do so, private libraries were searched. • Taking advantage of the opportunity, several types of books were destroyed: 1. Books that implied resistance against the Manchu rule of China. 2. Books on geography or travel that could give inside information on China’s defenses. 3. Books that exposed philosophical interpretations of the classics that were different from ones preferred by the scholars at the court. • We know of over 2000 titles that were destroyed and that now are likely lost forever. • This is not the only time in China’s history: First Emperor’s Burning of the Books and Burying of the Intellectuals. 42 Empirical evidence II: Florence • Arrival of Arab numbers (actually Indian numbers) to Europe in the 13th century. • Fantastic new technology. • Florence opposed it. Arte del Cambio code in 1299 explicitly prohibited Arab numbers. Why? • However, soon, Florence bankers were dominated by bankers in other cities. 43 Possibility II: China’s endowments are bad Kenneth Pomeranz,The Great Divergence: China, Europe, and the Making of the Modern World Economy⇒ geography again, hypothesis 2. • Coal: 1. Far away from production centers. 2. Steam engine versus ventilations. • Environmental limits. • Pacific is bigger than Atlantic, and tides move in the opposite direction. 44 An empirical application • How is the evolution of population growth and technological change since 1 Million BCE? • Basic lesson so far: growth depends on technological progress. • Intuition: more people probably must imply higher knowledge accumulation. • Thus, growth and population may be closely linked. • Empirical evidence. 45 A simple model I • Production function: we produce output with land, labor, and technology: Y = Ap α T 1−α • Malthusian assumption: we will reproduce (or die) until we reach income per capita y ∗ where: ∗  p = A y∗ 1  1−α T • Technology progress depends on population size: Ȧ = gpAϕ where g and ϕ are parameters. 46 A simple model II • Take time derivatives of p ∗ to get: 1 Ȧ ṗ = p 1−αA • Then: g ṗ = pAϕ−1 p 1−α 1 1 g = (y ∗ ) α−1 Aϕ−1+ 1−α T 1−α • Therefore, bigger land surfaces should sustain more people ⇒ more technology ⇒ more people. • Depending on the value of ϕ, we can have explosive growth, a balanced growth path, or a steady state. 47 Time series evidence • A first look at the data. • Regression: nt = −0.0026 + 0.524 Lt (0.0355) R 2 = (0.0258) 0.92, D.W = 1.10 • Robust to different data sets and specifications. 48 Cross-sectional evidence • World population was separated from 10,000 BCE to circa 1500. • Population and Population Density circa 1500: “Old World” Americas Australia Tasmania Flinders Islands Land Area 83.98 38.43 7.69 0.068 0.0068 Population 407 14 0.2 0.0012-0.005 0.0 Pop/km2 4.85 0.36 0.026 0.018-0.074 0.0 • England versus Europe and Japan versus Asia. 49 Population and population growth 0,025 0,02 Population Growth Rate 0,015 0,01 0,005 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 -0,005 Population 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 50 Environment Microbes, viruses, and plagues • Microbes, viruses, and plagues also play a crucial role in human history. • Different patterns of economic, social, and political life. • Co-evolution of diseases and plagues with humans. • Tropical diseases are highly damaging and challenging to fight: 1. Late Europeans colonization of Africa. 2. New England vs. Virginia in American colonial times: winter kills all germs in the north but not in the south. • Also, insects such as mosquitoes. 51 Malaria 52 Pandemics 1. The Plague of Athens (430 BCE): first document pandemic thanks to Thucydides. 2. Justinianic Plague, from 541 CE to 750 CE. Recent recovery of DNA from Yersinia pestis. Combined with the end of the Roman climatic optimum. 3. Black Death. 4. Arrivals of Europeans to the Americas. 5. Spanish Flu (1918). 6. HIV/AIDS. 7. COVID-19. 53 Justinianic Plague 54 Changing the environment: the Columbian Exchange • Environment can be modified: the Columbian Exchange. • Transfers of plants, animals, and microbes among the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. • Also, within the Americas (e.g., mate). • Some of it was voluntary, some involuntary. Alfred Crosby, The Columbian Exchange and Ecological Imperialism. • Breaks hundreds of thousands of years of separate evolutionary changes. 55 Alfred W. Crosby 56 Euroasia to America 1. Cereals: wheat, rice, barley, rye, millet, oat. 2. Fruits: banana, watermelon, coconut, mango, apple, pear, apricot, peach, plum, cherry, citrus, olive. 3. Vegetables: turnip, radish, soybean, garlic, eggplant, artichoke, asparagus, beet, cabbage, cucumber, carrot, pea. 4. Work animals: Horse, camel, water buffalo. 5. Farm animals: cow, pig, chicken, goat, sheep, goose. 6. Bee. 7. Coffee, tea, and sugar (white gold, Canada versus Guadeloupe in 1763). 8. Microbes: bubonic plague, chickenpox, cholera, influenza, leprosy, malaria, measles, scarlet fever, smallpox, typhoid, typhus, yellow fever. 57 An “American” breakfast 58 Sugar 59 America to Euroasia 1. Maize (first for livestock feeding, later human consumption). 2. Other staples: sweet potatoes, potatoes, manioc (remember Malthusian model?). 3. Vegetables: tomatoes, chili pepper, bell pepper, bean, squash. 4. Peanut, sunflower, cashew, pecan. 5. Fruits: blueberry, huckleberry, pineapple, pumpkin, avocado. 6. Vanilla. 7. Rubber. 8. Animals: turkey, llama, guinea pig. 9. Tobacco and cocoa. 10. Syphilis. 60 Byrd plantation 61 Table 1: Consumption of colonial luxuries in Europe, early modern period (lbs per head and Consumption colonial luxuries in Europe, lbs. per head/year year) 62 15 Sugar 1600 0 0 5 Consumption (lbs/capita) 10 20 30 Real Price (pence/lb) 10 15 20 25 30 Sugar, Clark Sugar, Allen 40 Sugar prices and consumption per capita in England, 1600-1850 1650 1700 1750 Year 1800 1850 1600 1650 1700 1750 Year 1800 1850 Figure 2: Real Sugar Prices and Sugar Consumption Per Capita in England, 1600-1850 63 Real Price (pence/lb) 200 400 Tea 0 0 1650 16 Consumption (lbs/capita) .5 1 1.5 2 600 Tea, Clark Tea, Allen 2.5 Tea prices and consumption per capita in England, 1600-1850 1700 1750 1800 1850 1650 1700 1750 Year Year Figure 3: Real Tea Prices and Consumption Per Capita in England, 1600-1850 1800 1850 64 17 150 Coffee prices and consumption per capita in England, 1600-1850 Real Price (pence/lb) 50 100 0 0 1650 Coffee Consumption (lbs/capita) .5 1 1.5 Coffee, Clark 1700 1750 Year 1800 1850 1650 1700 1750 Year 1800 1850 Figure 4: Real Coffee Price and Consumption Per Capita in England, 1600-1850 65 Welfare gains from sugar, tea, and coffee in England, 1600-1850 Table 3: Welfare gains from sugar, tea, and coffee, England (1600-1850) 66 34 Impact of new goods on welfare Table 9: Impact of new goods on welfare 67 Climate Climate in history • Three basic observations: 1. Climate changes across different areas. 2. Climate changes over time. 3. Widespread consensus that part of this change is due to human agency (particularly during the last century). • Enormous development in the study of climate in history since Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie’s pathbreaking work. 68 69 70 Natural archives • First reliable thermometer is invented in 1714 by Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit using mercury. • Information sources: 1. Ice cores. 2. Tree rings. 3. Cave deposits and speleothems. 4. Ocean sediments. 5. Lake varves. 6. Written accounts: ship logs, letters, diaries, manorial accounts ... 7. Art: winter landspaces. 8. Skeletal remains: femur length, infections, degenerative joint disease, dental disease, iron/vitamin deficiencies, trauma, and specific diseases such as TB, rickets, and leprosy. 71 Climate Zone Description Af Tropical Rain Forest Am Tropical Rain Forest with Seasonal Monsoon Aw Tropical Savannah Cw Subtropical: MildHumid with Dry Winter Cf Mild Humid Climate with No Dry Season Cs Df Mediterranean Climate: Mild, Humid with Dry Summer Snowy-Forest Climate with No Dry Season Representative Cities Jakarta, Indonesia Manaus, Brazil Manila, Philippines Cochin, India Belém, Brazil Dhaka, Bangladesh Kinshasa, Congo Havana, Cuba Hanoi, Vietnam Kanpur, India Lilongwe, Malawi New York, USA Paris, France Shanghai, China Sydney, Australia San Francisco, USA Rome, Italy Santiago, Chile Chicago, USA Moscow, Russia Seoul, South Korea Vladivostok, Russia San Diego, USA Odessa, Ukraine Percentage of World Landmass Percentage of World Population GDP per Capita Relative to World Average 4.0 4.4 0.64 0.8 2.4 0.41 10.8 17.5 0.38 4.3 16.0 0.44 7.7 19.5 2.24 2.2 4.3 2.10 23.0 5.8 1.90 6.2 5.3 0.64 12.3 11.8 0.55 Dw Snowy-Forest Climate with Dry Winter BS Semi-arid Steppe BW Desert: Annual Precipitation Less than 15 in. (38 cm) Cairo, Egypt Karachi, Pakistan 17.3 6.2 0.58 H Highlands Mexico City, Mexico 7.3 6.8 0.78 E Ice Climates: Average Temperature in Warmest Month Less Than 50°F (10°C) Nuuk, Greenland 4.0 <0.1 — Source: Data on landmass, population, and GDP per capita are from Mellinger, Sachs, and Gallup (1999). 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 Climate in Europe • Winters cold enough to wipe out germs, but not too cold. High humidity. Constant rain. • Dry summers. • Gulf Stream: the presence of Brazil forces the hot water up in the ocean, and Greenland’s waters stop it in the north. • However: 1. Too many forests (Grimm Brothers), difficult to cultivate until iron ax. 2. Hard soils, not enough rain in summer: fallow. 3. Need animals for plowing and manure. • Consequences: a diet rich in wheat and animal protein (meat and dairy products). • Mediterranean sea. 81 82 Mediterranean winds 83 Climate in Asia • Interior ⇒ grasslands that supported Nomads. • Exterior ⇒ monsoon: 1. Much less need to fallow. 2. Possible to cultivate rice in large parts of Asia. • Consequences: 1. Much higher density. 2. Fewer cows, more pigs and chicken. 3. Constant struggle between nomads and settled peoples. Lev Nikolaevich Gumilev, Searches for an Imaginary Kingdom: The Legend of the Kingdom of Prester John. 4. Seasonal patterns of trade. Example: Portuguese in Goa. 84 85 86 87 88 Coping with the climate • One fundamental observation: it is much easier to warm up than to cool down. • Warm up: 1. Evidence of human ancestors’ fire control between 1.8 to 1 million years ago. 2. Clothing probably existed around 250,000 years ago, when H. Neanderthalensis had to survive winters in Europe. 3. Dutch responses to the Little Ice Age. • Cool down: 1. Romans circulated aqueduct water through their walls to reduce heat. 2. Use of water imitated by other times: Persians, Arabs, etc. 3. Modern electrical air conditioning was invented in 1902 by Willis Haviland Carrier (his company, Carrier, is still a leading producer worldwide). 3.1 First industrial application: 1906, Chronicle Cotton Mills of Belmont, NC. 3.2 First house with A/C: 1914, Charles Gates’ mansion in Minneapolis ( 1 million). 89 90 Consequences • Much easier to populate and work in very cold areas than in very hot areas. • Expansion of the U.S. in the 19th century: much faster in the North than in the South. • Reversal in the second half of the 20th century: Buffalo versus Atlanta. • Glaeser and Tobiot (2008). • Political-economic consequences. 91 92 Climate determines political structure • Former European colonies have performed very differently: U.S. versus Belize. • No clear correlation with former colony. • Differences in settlers’ mortality induced different institutions. • Differences in outcomes. • Karen Kupperman: Providence Island, 1630-1641: The Other Puritan Colony, compares Providence Island and New England. • Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson: The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. 93 HKG 10 r) S CAN H ~~~~~~~~~~~~MLTBHS | GM PER DOMTW) 8 N- . SLV ~~~HTI SDN RD 7 0~~~~~~~~ A a) m~ IDN BO[GU 'MM l TGO NGA NEBRGD EhE TZA 6m 0 4' 4 FIGURE 10 8 6 Average ExpropriationRisk 1985-95 2. OLS RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPROPRIATION RISK 94 AND INCOME 10 NZL USA CAN AUS SGP ' MYS C) GMB IND co) v 8 0) ,fflLANGAB K Z i?r) JAM ^~~~~~L A T ._ -F,6 ~~~~~~~~CMR GINGH NABGA MDG 4 4 SDN ~~~~~~~~~~~HTI MLI ZAR 2 4 6 Log of Settler Mortality 8 95 TABLE4-IV REGRESSIONS OF LOG GDP PERCAPITA Base Base Base sample, Base Base sample sample dependent Base sample Base sample sample sample with with variable is Base Base without without without without continent continent log output sample sample Neo-Europes Neo-Europes Africa Africa dummies dummies per worker (1) (2) (4) (5) (7) (3) (6) (8) (9) Panel A: Two-Stage Least Squares Average protectionagainst expropriationrisk 1985-1995 Latitude 0.94 (0.16) 1.00 (0.22) -0.65 (1.34) 1.28 (0.36) 1.21 (0.35) 0.94 (1.46) 0.58 (0.10) 0.58 (0.12) 0.04 (0.84) Asia dummy 0.98 (0.30) -0.92 (0.40) -0.46 (0.36) -0.94 (0.85) Africa dummy "Other"continent dummy 1.10 (0.46) -1.20 (1.8) -1.10 (0.52) -0.44 (0.42) -0.99 (1.0) 0.98 (0.17) -0.34 (0.18) 2.00 (1.40) 0.47 (0.50) -0.26 (0.41) 1.1 (0.84) 0.33 -0.63 (0.13) Panel B: First Stage for Average ProtectionAgainst ExpropriationRisk in 1985-1995 Log Europeansettler mortality -0.61 (0.13) Latitude -0.51 (0.14) 2.00 (1.34) -0.39 (0.13) -0.39 (0.14) -0.11 (1.50) -1.20 (0.22) -1.10 (0.24) 0.99 (1.43) Asia dummy Africa dummy "Other"continent dummy R2 0.27 0.30 0.13 0.13 0.47 0.47 -0.43 (0.17) 0.33 (0.49) -0.27 (0.41) 1.24 (0.84) 0.30 0.28 96