Government and Politics of MENA | Lecture Notes #1

Government and Politics of MENA | Lecture Notes #1 Course Introduction ● New York Times on the talks in Vienna to restore the JCPOA ○ Trump left in 2018 ○ The assassination of General Soleimani, anniversary resulted in “largely symbolic” sanctions against US military and diplomatic officials for their “human rights abuses and violations” ○ Ebrham Raisi (Iran’s President) thinks Trump/Sec. Pompeo need to stand before a trial for the death of General Soleimani ○ An agreement could align with the 1979 Revolution ■ When Shah Mohammad Rzxa Pahlavi in the Pahlavi Dynasty was overthrown by Ayatollah Khomeini ○ Reinstated past Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh’s disposal for the naturalizing of Iranian oil reserves from the British and the US New Arab WarsChapter 1 ● Foreign Influence ○ State: NATO, IRAN, Egypt, Israel vs. Russia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey ○ Non-State: ISIS, Muslim Brotherhood, al-Qaeda ● Treaty of Westphalia ○ Establishes the notion of sovereign states and boundaries ● Rogue States: ○ Iran, Syria, Iraq (for a period) ● Sykes-Picot Agreement ○ British: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Gulf, Israel, Iraq, Egypt, Jordan ○ French: Lebanon, Syria ● Post-WWII: Cold War in the MENA, with Russian and US competing interests President Obama’s Foreign Policy ● We’re facing difficulties, but still in charge of the regional order at the start ● Promised to withdraw from Iraq ● Obama’s transition from idealist to pragmatists ● Doesn’t have the same “Judeo-Christian” outlook or view towards Israel ● Obama calling Egypt’s Mubarak to step down signals a pivotal changing point, this isn’t done in a vacuum in the Middle East, other nations are watching ○ Allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to take control of Egypt ● Obama’s call sends a message to our long term partners and allies to watch out ○ Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, the Moderation Bloc 1 ○ Involvement of state actors with a vacuum of influence when the US allows public influence and groups of democracy to change the regional order New Arab Wars: Chapters 1–3 ● A shift in policy for the US with the debate between values and interests ● President Obama’s red-line speech about al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons in Syria, makes a statement that if they use them, the US will retaliate ● Obama wants Putin to take responsibility and control for the situation in Syria ● Putin increases Russia’s influence in Syria, protects Syrian regime, and built further anti-US sentiments Four Key Conflicts in the Middle East 1. The Iranian-Saudi conflict, reinforced by Israel’s priorities continued to structure much of the region’s alliances and interventions 2. The battle for leadership of the Sunni Arab world between Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, and Turkey often mattered even more 3. The challenge posed by different Islamist networks, from mainstream Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi movements to the violent extremists of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, represented a third level of conflict 4. A broader struggle between autocratic regimes and mobilized societies continued to unfold within a context framed by the three regional wars “Survive and Advance” during the Arab Uprisings ● Make it through the protests, remain in power, make a few token concessions, use violence if all else fails, make it through the storm of protests, and calls for democracy ● Saudi Arabia starts to fund other states, negotiations, changing leaderships, constitutions, token shows of listening to the protestors ● Haftar (Libya) has technical US citizenship in Langley, VA ○ Trump: “Haftar is not a bad guy” totally against the UN and the standing there ○ Trump heard in Intelligence briefings that we were secretly backing Haftar and blurted it out to the press ○ Outing our secret hope he would win, and the UN and European hopes as well New Arab Wars: Chapters 4–6 ● Hafiz al-Assad: Hama Massacre in 1982, up to 40,000 dead The Situation in Libya (government) - Libya Army - Zintan Brigades - Tebu militias - Turaeg militias (non-government) - Libya dawn - Amazingh militias (non-state) - Ansar al-Sharia - Islamic State (ISIS) 2 Mu'ammar Al-Qadhdhāfī ● “rough autocratic regime” → an affair of convenience; divert the world’s attention ● Pan Am airline in 1988 ○ US response ○ Qaddafi supported the IRA ● Qaddafi is pan-Arab, pan-African support ○ Becomes President of Libya in 1977 ● NATO involvement on March 19, 2011 ○ Qaddafi had WMDs that could be used domestically on Libyans ○ NATO’s response is humanitarian in reasoning ○ They can interfere in Libya to take pressure off of the other protests in MENA countries ○ Fear of a repeat of the massacre in Srebrenica ● Obama’s hypocrisy of calling for Mubarak to step down, but not the leader of Bahrain … values vs. interests, upholding the regional order and power with Saudi Arabia and the Gulf ○ Less about humanitarian concerns and more so to uphold the world order ● NATO, UAE, US, Qatar, Turkey: ○ Airstrikes in Libya ○ Qatar raises its own flag in Libya ○ Turkey gets concessions on the coast ● Explaining the UAE and Qatar rift: ○ You can fight your brothers, but when someone outside comes in, you’ll always fight alongside your cousin The Situation in Syria ● Obama’s “red-line” speech promise to strike over the use of Sarin gas by al-Assad, he does, and al-Assad kills over 1700 of his own citizens, but we don’t do anything ○ CIA training of officers to combat in the region ● Switch in the US to fight against ISIS and extremists, Assad’s Regime is secondary now ● What do Syrians feel like they can lose with protests, remember Hama, a lot is at stake ● Bashar al-Assad and the line is Alawite: a religion distinct of Islam and Christianity, where Allah, Ali, and another are viewed as a holy trinity, Ali is the Jesus in this structure ○ Alawites are only 17% of the population, propped up to power because they allied with the French during colonialism, due to strategy, and were propped up to hold power ○ Assad props up other wealthy Alawite families to power in Syria ● Why did Islamic Extremists, including ISIS, move to Syria? ○ Capitalize on the instability for recruitment and expansion ○ Viewing the Alawites as being wrong to hold-power ○ Russian foul play, to send ISIS into the already turbulent region? ● Qatar intervenes first in Syria because of the Hama massacre against the Muslim Brotherhood 3 ○ See this, Arab uprisings, as an opportunity to organize and seek retribution ● CIA training fail because by this point, everyone is already with a group, they weren’t waiting for the US to come in, they didn’t expect it and wouldn’t wait ○ Joined the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS, PKK, the Kurds, etc. New Arab Wars:Chapter 5: Democracy’s Chance Introduction ● Tunisia’s Collective Assembly elects Ennhada ● Yemen elects President al-Hadi ● PJD - ‫ةةةةةةةة ةةةةةةة ةةة‬ ● The month after the moderate Islamist Ennahda party won elections in Tunisia with 45.4% of the electorate had turned out to vote. ● Morocco elected PJD—Justice and Development Party—with 107 out of 395 seats, letting them form the government and put forth President Abdelilah Benkirane ○ “Morocco’s King (Mohammed 6th) allowed the appointment of a government led by the modern Islamist PJD following its victory in November 2011 elections.” ○ Under a new constitution adopted in July, King Mohamed must now appoint the prime minister from the party which wins the most seats, rather than naming whomever he pleases. ○ PJD is defined as a political Islamist group and will hold power from 2011 to 2021 New Arab Wars:Chapters 6-7 Rise of ISIS ● Hezbollah, PLO, Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas ○ All predated ISIS and al-Qaeda ● ISIS grew fast in Iraq and was in part funded by Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, and Turkey ● Muslim Brotherhood -- started as an activist political organization, but they stood out against Hafiz al-Assad, marking them as different from other groups at the time ○ Seen as a moderate Islamist group because they pre-date 9/11 ● ISIS is anti-Shia, doesn’t recognize Shias, because they are funded by Saudi Arabia ○ View Shias as apostates ○ Al-Zahrawi was too extreme for al-Qaeda, Osama bin Laden’s mother was Shia Egypt’s Coup and the Removal of Morsi 4 ● Saudi Arabia and the Moderate Bloc through a military coup, put Morsi in prison, prop up General Sisi to power, slaughtered the Islamists ○ Morsi was democratically elected, but the Moderate Bloc didn’t favor this ○ The Islamists backing the Muslim Brotherhood participated democratically, but the old order which was secular and led by Saudi Arabia ● Dynamics of the Muslim Brotherhood being “good” with democracy, but ties to Saudi Arabia led the US to sit by when SA/Gulf (non-Qatar) overthrow the government ● Tunisia’s Muslim Brotherhood ties avoid a coup because they allow for their Prime Minister to be a member of the other party ● Libya - Benghazi, Christopher Stevens ● No one agrees or wants the government, so Qatar backed GNC (recognized by the EU) militia is not liked, so we and UAE, SA, Egypt all back him -- he left Libya when Qaddafi was in power ○ We can’t publicly enforce Haftar out front, covertly backing him and wanting to integrate Haftar into the GNC and Libya more broadly ○ Is Russia also backing Haftar??? ● Stability vs. Democracy -- they’re at odds in the Middle East ○ Democracy comes t the price of stability, For Monday: - Reading response on chapter 1 or 4 - For the discussion post responses, tie them back to the four-axis of conflict Arab Wars Essay on Feb. 27 - Summarize the text - Organize the essay paper around the four themes of conflict - Introduction, four themes, conclusion - 2-3 examples for each of the axis’ of conflict Conflicted podcast Accidental-guerilla syndrome (Kilcullen) David Patreus The “Surge” -- the awakening movement or Sons of Iraq Iraq body count website is evidence of this Saudi Arabia funds ISIS initially, at least the start of it in Syria The Sunni revolution was taken over by ISIS after its success 5 New Arab Wars:Chapter 9 1.) The Arab Uprising is not over ● It will continue to be a cycle where people are dissatisfied ● The more state violence and retribution, the more people are dissatisfied 2.) Arab Regimes are not the answer ● Against international intervention ● Saudi Arabia -- “but will come back to haunt Washington down the road” ● Camp David Accords → Abraham Accords ● JCPOA negotiations: Israel doesn’t back it even though it would protect them from nuclear arms, they instead would favor military/aggressive action not diplomatic ○ Andrew mentioned with the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative ● Long term interests are different from what is convenient now ● “America is back” 3.) Intervention would not have saved Syria 4.) Islamist Extremism is only going to get worse Politics and Government of MENA:Chapter 1 ● Foreign Influence ○ Borders post-WWI with Sykes/Picot ○ Colonialism ○ Arab Nationalism ● A long period of time, the conflict between the Hashemites and al Saud Family ● Oil and Renterism (pg. 31) ○ Boom and bust economics ○ Foreign intervention -- coups to economic caps ○ “Oil as a resource blessing and curse”, resource curse, low economic diversity for these economies ○ “Entitlements” -- social safety nets, subsidization of water/gas, UAE “general amnesty” to remove debts, free college and health care (similar to per caps) ● Maintenance of symbolic monarchies, the importance of religious leaders who can track their lineage to the Prophet Mohammad ● Youth Bulge -- young populations in MENA Politics and Government of MENA:Chapter 2 - Syria ● WWII - French Era 6 ○ WWI - Fall of the Ottoman Empire (1918) ■ Sykes-Picot Agreement ■ Damascus was to be the capital of the new Arab kingdom ○ Anti-French Rebellion (1925) ○ Franco-Syrian Treaty (1936) ○ A succession of Alexandretta to Turkey (1939) ○ Independence (1941-1946) ● Syria after Independence ○ Notables → Aleppo and Damascus ○ Arab Israeli War (1948) ○ Military Coup in 1949 (Husni Al-Zaim) ○ Second Military Coup in 1949 (Adib Al-Shishakli) ○ Military Coup in 1954 ○ Ba’ath Party created in 1947 → allied with Communist Party ○ United Arab Republic (UAR) (1958) ○ Military Coup in 1961 - succession from UAR ○ Military Coup in 1963 - Ba’ath party came to power ● Ba’ath Policy ○ Nationalized industry and land ownership ○ Large pubic sector employed working class ○ Alawites over-represented and more cohesive ○ Insurgency in Hama (1964) ○ Ba’ath internal coup in 1966 (radical Salah Jadid) ○ Stoked six day war with Israel 1967 → Syria lost the Golan Heights ○ Intervened in Jordan Civil War in 1970 -- defeated ○ Hafiz Al-Asad coup in 1970 ○ 1973 Yom Kippur War in Israel with marginal success ● Asad Regime (a Jumlukiyaa (meaning monarchy republic) ○ Free from Ba’ath ideology ○ Focused on repression of Islamic organized opposition ○ Foought 1979-1982 Islamic militant opposition ○ 1982 sack of Hama - 10k-25k killed ○ Attempted coup in 1984 ○ Relative stability late 1980s to 2000 ○ Death of Hafiz al-Asad in 2000 ● Syria’s Governing Transitions ○ Ascension to power supported by the elite -- thought Bashar would be weak ○ 2001 repression of power ○ Kurdish revolt and repression in 2004 ○ 2005 elimination of Islamic opposition ○ Nationalist legitimacy -- confrontation with the US and Israel ● Religious Makeup of Syria 7 ○ According to CIA World Factbook, 87% of Syrians are Muslim, the majority being Sunni Muslims (74%).1 A further 13% are Shi’a Muslims, following the Alawite (11%), Ismaili (1%) or Twelver Imami (0.5%) sects. Christians make up an additional 10% of the population with the remaining 3% being a combination of Druze, Jews and atheists. Politics and Government of MENA:Chapter 3 - Lebanon ● Lebanese Civil War: 1975-1990 ● Subra and Shatila Palestinian Refugee Camp ● Hezabollah - Hizab ● Confessionalism -- a combination of governance and religion ● President (Christian), Prime Minister (Sunni), SP (Shia) Brief History of Modern Israel/Palestine ● Materazzi Jews - Eastern ● Ashkenazi Jews - European ● Arab Community in East Jerusalem -- Sheikh Jarah Final Paper: - History of US intelligence operations in Iran - More specifically: history of US cyber intelligence in Iran - Iranian collusion with CCP? Belt and Road, economic partnerships, etc. Politics and Government of MENA:Iraq & Turkey ● Yemen Houthi -- “The slogan of the Houthi movement (officially called Ansar Allah), a political and religious movement and rebel group in Yemen, reads "Allah is Greater, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse on the Jews, Victory to Islam" in Arabic text. It is often portrayed on a white flag, with the written text in red and green.” 8 Politics and Government of MENA:Saudi Arabia ● Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) - similar to NATO in countering Iran ● Local government which in turn are ,)iq‫ة‬manā( The kingdom is divided into 13 administrative regions ○ divided into numerous districts. Regional governors are appointed, usually from the royal family, and preside over one or more municipal councils, half of whose members are appointed and half elected. With their councils, the governors are responsible for such functions as finance, health, education, agriculture, and municipalities. The consultative principle operates at all levels of government, including the government of villages and tribes. Saudi 2030 Vision What is it? ● Funded through the Public Investment Fund Program What are specific programs? ● NEOM - Announced in 2017 Future Investment Initiative Conference by MBS ○ Green city close to Egypt+Israel to promote tourism and showcase developing technologies Chinese Influence ● This is where China comes into it. Ties between Saudi Arabia and China have been deepening for several years already. In 2020, Saudi Arabia was China's largest trading partner in the region, with imports and exports worth over $67 billion (€60.6 billion). ● This includes a growing military component to the China-Saudi relationship. Between 2016 and 386% 2020, Chinese arms transfers to Saudi Arabia increased ● Mostly, these ties have been based on a mutually beneficial economic relationship, one that highlights synergies between China's trillion-dollar, trade-boosting Belt and Road Initiative and Saudi Arabia's own modernization project, Vision 2030. ● Closer ties of Saudi Arabia's state-owned Aramco and Chinese conglomerate Norinco, development of a large-scale refinery in 2024 ● They’ll work with MBS, weird Biden divide 9 Why? ● Shift the cultural and social understandings of Saudi Arabia ● Place Saudi Arabia as the “hub” of the region with Asia, Europe, Africa ● Promote outside investments in Saudi Arabia to boost the economy ● Modernization -- more viable diversified economy similar to the UAE ● Privatization -- shift the motor of growth from the state to the private sector, less expensive services with more competition which could increase the quality of life for SA ● Helping to better the lives of Saudi Arabian citizens to increase the popularity of MBS -- his project primarily ● Safa Al Hashem ● Security of the desalination plants -- critical infrastructure 10