Examining Chinese-Iranian Relations & US Threats

Examining Chinese-Iranian Economic and Military Relations & Threats for the U.S. Introduction ● Briefly examining the changes in regional order, and the broader strategic competition between China and the U.S., and how that impacts MENA and Iran specifically ● Definitions of the Belt and Road Initiative and the 25-Year Strategic Cooperation Agreement ● Thesis: PRC-Iran military and economic ties, heightened by the 25-Year Strategic Cooperation Agreement, present an imminent threat to U.S. influence in the Middle East and potential for nuclear escalation. Economic Relations ● Iran’s role as China’s top trading partner in MENA ● PRC’s demand for oil/natural resources ○ Development for crude petroleum in-country ○ Iron core - China is leading in global steel producing ● Infrastructure and Economic Development: ○ China is to invest US$400 billion into infrastructure project -- with 25-Year Agreement ○ Chinese companies invested US$3.41 billion in direct investment into the country and signed contracts worth a combined US$3.11 billion, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce ● In addition to PRC state-investment, movement of Chinese multinationals into Iran ○ Examine prominent Chinese multinationals in country and their sectors, how this counters previous influence and business from the U.S. Military Relations ● Support during the Iran-Iraq war, with arms from PRC ○ Tactical ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles ○ Use in 1987 led to indirect PRC involvement with development in Iran ● 1985-1986: PRC support in civilian nuclear development, PRC provided Iran with technology and assisted in uranium exploration/enrichment ● 2017: The U.S. DoT sanctioned Chinese state-owned company Wuhan Sanjiang Export and Import Co. Ltd. for selling technologies to an entity under Iran’s Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics. ● 2020: DOS sanctioned the company for supporting Iran’s missile program ● Ongoing joint naval exercises and port calls that appear to both build trust between militaries and signal to the United States that the two sides stand together despite U.S. pressure. ● 2021: Russia’s ambassador to Iran announced that China, Russia, and Iran would conduct trilateral naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean ● Potential Intelligence Sharing ○ U.S. loss of dozens of assets in China over the 2010– 2012 period from Iranian Assistance ○ PRC Ministry of State Security in Iran ● PRC Minister of National Defense Wei Fenghe: ○ PRC-Iran partnership as “improving the strategic defense cooperation” between Iran and China — cooperation that he said would have a “remarkable” impact in defusing unilateralism and fighting terrorism Threats of Chinese-Iranian Relations to the U.S. ● Nuclear escalation -- lack of a JCPOA, PRC trade lessens impact of sanctions ○ China’s call for the “unconditional return of the United States to the JCPOA and the lifting of all relevant sanctions” (2021) ○ Though China benefits from stability in the Middle East, a revived nuclear deal is primarily a means for China to increase its economic engagement with Iran without the threat of U.S. sanctions ● Change to the regional order, PRC influence, threats of the Belt and Road Initiative more broadly: ○ Growing surveillance technology to BRI countries ○ Debt-traps which could lead to further destabilization ○ PRC technological companies market control, technical PRC Standards ● Insufficient U.S. Response to PRC-Iranian Relations