The Geography of the Confederate Diaspora

A The Geography of the Confederate Diaspora In this Appendix, we document the economic and ideological factors underlying Southern white outmigration between 1870 and 1900, as well as the destination choices of these migrants. Together, these factors shaped the geography of the Confederate diaspora that we study in this paper. A.1 Selection into Migration: Origin County Push Factors Table A.1: Push Factors for Postbellum Southern White Migrants, 1870–1900 Southern White Migrants Outflows (2) Dependent Variable: (1) % Black population Average manufacturing wages % from slaveholding households (1860) % from Confederate Army households (1860) Any Civil War battles in county? Tobacco county Cotton county Agricultural potential % Vote share for Breckinridge (1860) Population size in sending counties ∗∗∗ -10.825 (1.073) 5.981∗∗ (2.857) -2.244∗∗ (1.129) -13.051∗∗∗ (1.101) 120.155∗∗∗ (33.764) -17.268 (22.874) 21.026 (27.951) 211.072∗ (115.285) -1.382∗∗∗ (0.457) 0.064∗∗∗ (0.005) Manufacturing output per capita Period Year FE Observations Outcome mean Adj. R2 ∗∗∗ (3) -14.521∗∗∗ (1.175) 231.493∗∗∗ (52.953) 97.080∗∗∗ (27.592) -13.875∗∗∗ (0.752) 5.263∗ (3.088) -0.681 (0.954) -14.375∗∗∗ (0.984) 174.079∗∗∗ (31.634) 35.096∗ (19.767) -2.239∗∗∗ (0.609) 0.061∗∗∗ (0.002) 1.049 (1.290) 181.099∗∗ (91.031) -1.938∗∗∗ (0.402) 0.061∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.445 (0.778) -16.256 (0.732) 2.906 (4.779) 1870–1880 1880–1900 1,078 330.5 0.794 1,136 497.2 0.749 1870–1900 Yes 2,214 416.0 0.761 Notes: Estimates of equation (1), which regresses a measure of Southern white migrant outflows from Southern counties on various observable origin county characteristics. These outflow measures from each origin county to non-Southern counties are based on linked Census records, which track (white male) migrants across Census periods for decades following the Civil War from 1870–1900. All columns use a linear LASSO specification to select optimal sets of covariates for each Census period. Column 3 pools data across years and estimates a version with year fixed effects. Sample counties include those in the twelve former Confederate states plus Oklahoma. Robust standard errors in parentheses. Significance levels are denoted by * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. A-1 Table A.2: Summary Statistics, Southern County-Level Push Factor Data Push factors % Black population Manufacturing output per capita Manufacturing wage per capita % Individuals from slaveholding households (1860) % Individuals from Confederate Army households (1860) Any Civil War battles? Tobacco county (above-median potential) Cotton county (above-median potential) Agricultural potential % Votes for Breckindidge (1860) % Slaves (1860) Obs. Mean St. dev. Min. Max. 2,795 2,795 2,795 2,688 2,688 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 2,910 24.84 16.37 2.33 28.84 58.70 0.12 0.50 0.50 0.65 35.50 26.39 20.89 28.53 4.89 13.58 28.50 0.33 0.50 0.50 0.18 27.02 22.49 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 88.03 456.74 68.96 100.00 100.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.90 100.00 92.43 Notes: Summary statistics for counties in the South in the period 1870–80 and 1880–1900 as used in the descriptive analysis of push factors and corresponding construction of the migration shifts in the SSIV. See Section 3 for data sources. The variables in the first three rows are timevarying. The others are time-invariant, but we report the overall sample size allowing for the entry of new counties (in Texas and Oklahoma) in the later period. A-2 A.2 Migrant Sorting: Destination County Pull Factors Table A.3: Pull Factors for White Migrants, 1870–1900 Dependent Variable: Log distanceo−d Origin state network in d Agricultural potential Cotton county Tobacco county Log population density Any Southern White Migrants from Counties o to d (1) (2) Any Non-Southern White Migrants from Counties o to d (3) (4) -2.909∗∗∗ (0.052) 12.089∗∗∗ (0.235) -5.555∗∗∗ (0.181) 0.690∗∗∗ (0.033) -0.210∗∗∗ (0.030) 0.634∗∗∗ (0.011) -4.246∗∗∗ (0.073) 10.656∗∗∗ (0.291) -14.756∗∗∗ (0.370) 0.714∗∗∗ (0.043) -0.187∗∗∗ (0.036) 1.749∗∗∗ (0.032) 0.007∗∗∗ (0.001) 0.005∗∗∗ (0.001) 0.008∗∗∗ (0.003) -8.577∗∗∗ (0.068) 10.107∗∗∗ (0.436) -18.704∗∗∗ (0.339) 0.539∗∗∗ (0.052) 0.127∗∗ (0.051) 3.291∗∗∗ (0.021) -10.180∗∗∗ (0.122) 11.186∗∗∗ (0.812) -51.416∗∗∗ (0.669) 0.207∗∗∗ (0.065) 0.684∗∗∗ (0.060) 7.485∗∗∗ (0.057) -0.012∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.026∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.102∗∗∗ (0.003) OLS Yes Yes 2,909,978 2.51 0.09 OLS Yes Yes 2,060,712 2.87 0.10 OLS Yes Yes 4,530,763 16.10 0.17 OLS Yes Yes 3,191,940 16.74 0.20 % Vote share for Breckinridge (1860) % Union Army enlistment % Slaves in d (1860) Estimator Origin county×year FE Destination census division×year FE Observations Outcome mean Adj. R2 Notes: Estimates of equation (2), which regresses the probability (×100) that an origin county-destination county pair saw at least one migrant in a given Census window on a set of observable destination county characteristics. The set of destination counties excludes Southern counties belonging to states of the former Confederacy or Oklahoma and is limited to the same counties across all columns to best ensure comparability of migrant groups’ chosen destination characteristics. The sample of migrants is based on linked Census records, which track (white male) migrants across Census periods for decades following the Civil War from 1870–1900. Migrants in columns 1–2 are those tracked from Southern origin counties to non-Southern destination counties. Migrants in columns 3–4 are those tracked from non-Southern origin counties to non-Southern destination counties outside of the origin state. All regressions include origin county × year fixed effects and destination census division×year fixed effects. Standard errors are two-way clustered by origin and destination county. Significance levels are denoted by * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01. A-3 Figure A.1: Mapping Southern White Migrants Outside the South in 1900 (a) Southern White Migrant Counts as of 1900 (b) Southern White Migrant Shares as of 1900 Notes: This figure maps county-level population (a) counts and (b) shares of white individuals born in the South and residing outside the South in 1900, according to the complete-count Census. A-4