Making Capital Investment Decisions

Key Concepts and Skills Chapter 9 Making Capital Investment Decisions Chapter Outline • Understand how to determine the relevant cash flows for a proposed investment • Understand how to analyze a project’s projected cash flows • Understand how to evaluate an estimated NPV Relevant Cash Flows • Project Cash Flows: A First Look • Incremental Cash Flows • Pro Forma Financial Statements and Project Cash Flows • More on Project Cash Flows • Evaluating NPV Estimates • Scenario and Other What-If Analyses • Additional Considerations in Capital Budgeting • The cash flows that should be included in a capital budgeting analysis are those that will only occur if the project is accepted • These cash flows are called incremental cash flows • The stand-alone principle allows us to analyze each project in isolation from the firm simply by focusing on incremental cash flows Asking the Right Question Common Types of Cash Flows • You should always ask yourself “Will this cash flow change ONLY if we accept the project?” – If the answer is “yes,” it should be included in the analysis because it is incremental – If the answer is “no”, it should not be included in the analysis because it is not affected by the project – If the answer is “part of it,” then we should include the part that occurs because of the project • Sunk costs – costs that have accrued in the past • Opportunity costs – costs of lost options • Side effects – Positive side effects – benefits to other projects – Negative side effects – costs to other projects • Changes in net working capital • Financing costs • Taxes 1-1 • Pro Forma Statements and Cash Flow Capital budgeting relies heavily on pro Table 9.1 Pro Forma Income Statement forma accounting statements, particularly income statements • Computing cash flows – refresher Sales (50,000 units at $4.00/unit) – Operating Cash Flow (OCF) = EBIT + depreciation – taxes – OCF = Net income + depreciation when there is no interest expense – Cash Flow From Assets (CFFA) = OCF – net capital spending (NCS) – changes in NWC 125,000 Gross profit $ 75,000 Fixed costs 12,000 Depreciation ($90,000 / 3) 30,000 EBIT $ 33,000 Taxes (34%) 11,220 Net Income Table 9.2 Projected Capital Requirements $ 21,780 Table 9.5 Projected Total Cash Flows Year Year 0 0 NWC 1 $200,000 Variable Costs ($2.50/unit) 2 3 OCF $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 $20,000 Net Fixed Assets 90,000 60,000 30,000 0 Total Investment $110,000 $80,000 $50,000 $20,000 Making The Decision • Now that we have the cash flows, we can apply the techniques that we learned in chapter 8 • Enter the cash flows into the calculator and compute NPV and IRR NPV = -$110,000 + 51,780/1.2 + 51,780/(1.2)2 + 71,780/(1.2)3 NPV = $10,648 IRR = 25.8% • Should we accept or reject the project? 1 $51,780 Change in NWC -$20,000 Capital Spending -$90,000 CFFA -$110,00 2 $51,780 3 $51,780 $20,000 $51,780 $51,780 $71,780 The Tax Shield Approach • You can also find operating cash flows, using the tax shield approach • OCF = (Sales – costs)(1 – T) + Depreciation*T • This form may be particularly useful when the major incremental cash flows are the purchase of equipment and the associated depreciation tax shield – such as when you are choosing between two different machines 1-2 More on NWC • Why do we have to consider changes in NWC separately? – GAAP requires that sales be recorded on the income statement when made, not when cash is received – GAAP also requires that we record cost of goods sold when the corresponding sales are made, regardless of when we actually pay our suppliers – So, cash flow timing differences exist between the purchase of inventory, revenue and costs from its sale on the income statement, and the actual cash collection from its sale Computing Depreciation • Straight-line depreciation – D = (Initial cost – salvage) / number of years – Very few assets are depreciated straight-line for tax purposes • MACRS – Need to know which asset class is appropriate for tax purposes – Multiply percentage given in table by the initial cost – Depreciate to zero – Mid-year convention Example: Depreciation and After-tax Salvage • You purchase equipment for $100,000 and it costs $10,000 to have it delivered and installed. Based on past information, you believe that you can sell the equipment for $17,000 when you are done with it in 6 years. The company’s marginal tax rate is 40%. What is the depreciation expense each year, and the after tax salvage in year 6, for each of the following situations? Depreciation • The depreciation expense used for capital budgeting should be the depreciation schedule required by the IRS for tax purposes • Depreciation itself is a non-cash expense; consequently, it is only relevant because it affects taxes • Depreciation tax shield = DxT – D = depreciation expense – T = marginal tax rate After tax Salvage • If the salvage value is different from the book value of the asset, then there is a tax effect • Book value = initial cost – accumulated depreciation • After tax salvage = salvage – T(salvage – book value) Example: Straight-line Depreciation • Suppose the appropriate depreciation schedule is straight-line – D = ($110,000 – 17,000) / 6 = $15,500 every year for 6 years – BV in year 6 = $110,000 – 6($15,500) = $17,000 – After tax salvage = $17,000 - .4(17,000 – 17,000) = $17,000 1-3 Example: Three-year MACRS Year MACRS percent D 1 .3333 .3333(110,000) = 36,663 2 .4444 .4444(110,000) = 48,884 3 .1482 .1482(110,000) = 16,302 4 .0741 .0741(110,000) = 8,151 Example: Seven-Year MACRS BV in year 6 = 110,000 – 36,663 – 48,884 – 16,302 – 8,151 = 0 After-tax salvage = 17,000 - .4(17,000 – 0) = $10,200 • New Machine Initial cost = 150,000 5-year life Salvage in 5 years = 0 Cost savings = 50,000 per year – 3-year MACRS depreciation • Required return = 10% • Tax rate = 40% Replacement Problem – Pro Forma Income Statements Year 1 2 3 4 5 Cost Savings 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 Depr. New Old Increm. D 1 .1429 .1429(110,000) = 15,719 2 .2449 .2449(110,000) = 26,939 3 .1749 .1749(110,000) = 19,239 4 .1249 .1249(110,000) = 13,739 5 .0893 .0893(110,000) = 9,823 6 .0893 .0893(110,000) = 9,823 BV in year 6 = 110,000 – 15,719 – 26,939 – 19,239 – 13,739 – 9,823 – 9,823 = 14,718 After-tax salvage = 17,000 - .4(17,000 – 14,718) = 16,087.20 • Remember that we are interested in incremental cash flows • If we buy the new machine, then we will sell the old machine • What are the cash flow consequences of selling the old machine today instead of in 5 years? – – – – – Initial cost = 100,000 – Annual depreciation = 9,000 – Purchased 5 years ago – Book Value = 55,000 – Salvage today = 65,000 – Salvage in 5 years = 10,000 MACRS Percent Replacement Problem – Computing Cash Flows Example: Replacement Problem • Original Machine Year 49,995 66,660 22,230 11,115 0 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 40,995 57,660 13,230 2,115 (9,000) EBIT 9,005 (7,660) 36,770 47,885 59,000 Taxes 3,602 (3,064) 14,708 19,154 23,600 NI 5,403 (4,596) 22,062 28,731 35,400 • Replacement Problem – Incremental Net Capital Spending Year 0 – Cost of new machine = $150,000 (outflow) – After-tax salvage on old machine = $65,000 .4(65,000 – 55,000) = $61,000 (inflow) – Incremental net capital spending = $150,000 – 61,000 = $89,000 (outflow) • Year 5 – After tax salvage on old machine = $10,000 .4(10,000 – 10,000) = $10,000 (outflow because we no longer receive this) 1-4 Replacement Problem – Cash Flow From Assets Year 0 OCF 1 46,398 2 53,064 3 35,292 4 30,846 5 26,400 NCS -89,000 -10,000 D In NWC 0 0 CFFA -89,000 46,398 53,064 35,292 30,846 16,400 Replacement Problem – Analyzing the Cash Flows • Now that we have the cash flows, we can compute the NPV and IRR – Discount the cash flows at 10% – NPV = 54,801.29 – IRR = 36% by trial-and-error (36.27%, more precisely, using a financial calculator or spreadsheet) – Note that the positive NPV indicates IRR > 10% • Should the company replace the equipment? Evaluating NPV Estimates • The NPV estimates are just that – estimates • A positive NPV is a good start – now we need to take a closer look – Forecasting risk – how sensitive is our NPV to changes in the cash flow estimates, the more sensitive, the greater the forecasting risk – Sources of value – why does this project create value? Scenario Analysis • What happens to the NPV under different cash flows scenarios? • At the very least look at: – Best case – revenues are high and costs are low – Worst case – revenues are low and costs are high – Measure of the range of possible outcomes • Best case and worst case are not necessarily probable; they can still be possible Sensitivity Analysis New Project Example • What happens to NPV when we vary one variable at a time • This is a subset of scenario analysis where we are looking at the effect of specific variables on NPV • The greater the volatility in NPV in relation to a specific variable, the larger the forecasting risk associated with that variable and the more attention we want to pay to its estimation • Consider the project discussed in the text • The initial cost is $200,000 and the project has a 5-year life. There is no salvage. Depreciation is straight-line, the required return is 12% and the tax rate is 34% • The base case NPV is $15,567 1-5 Summary of Scenario Analysis Scenario Base case Worst Case Best Case Net Income Cash Flow NPV IRR $19,800 $59,800 $15,567 15.1% -15,510 24,490 -111,719 -14.4% 59,730 99,730 159,504 40.9% Making A Decision • Beware “Paralysis of Analysis” • At some point, you have to make a decision • If the majority of your scenarios have positive NPVs, then you can feel reasonably comfortable about accepting the project • If you have a crucial variable that leads to a negative NPV with a small change in the estimates, then you may want to forgo the project Summary of Sensitivity Analysis Scenario Base case Worst case Best case Unit Sales Cash Flow NPV IRR 6,000 59,800 15,567 15.1% 5,500 53,200 -8,226 10.3% 6,500 66,400 39,357 19.7% Managerial Options • Capital budgeting projects often provide other options that we have not yet considered – Contingency planning – Option to expand – Option to abandon – Option to wait – Strategic options Capital Rationing • Capital rationing occurs when a firm or division has limited resources – Soft rationing – the limited resources are temporary, often self-imposed – Hard rationing – capital will never be available for this project • The profitability index is a useful tool when faced with soft rationing 1-6