University:
California State University, Northridge
Course:
POLS 155 | American Political Institutions
Academic year:

2024
Views:

90

Pages:

32
Author:

Yasmin Shaffer

Chapter 9: Public Opinion America’s Tyrannical Majority Observing America in the 1830s, Alexis de Tocqueville warned of the potential for the “tyranny of the majority.” “I know of no country in which there is so little independence of mind and real freedom of discussion as in America … In America the majority raises formidable barriers around the liberty of opinion; within these barriers an author may write what he pleases, but woe to him if he goes beyond them.” —Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy in America Characteristics of Public Opinion Definition Public opinion is the values and attitudes that people have about issues, events, and personalities. Characteristics     Direction Intensity Saliency Latency Public opinion has direction. Whatever the response to a public opinion poll (yes or no; more or less; 1 or 100) people have opinions about proper directions and preferred alternatives. Liberals are said to be on the “left,” and conservatives are said to be on the “right.” If “direction” measures what people think, intensity refers to how deeply individuals hold a given opinion and how likely they are to act on it. Not all opinions are equally felt by citizens, so not all opinions are equally consequential for politics. If direction and intensity characterize individual opinions, saliency and latency are characteristics of overall opinion. Salient opinion is that which enjoys widespread public attention and is a high priority. Latent opinion may be widespread but generally remains in the background unmolded, unmobilized, and uncrystallized. EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY LIBERTY DEMOCRACY ANALYZING THE EVIDENCE While Americans disagree about many issues, they seem to agree on funda mental values. Virtually all Americans agree that equal ity of opportunity, liberty, and democracy are ex tremely important. Is this agreement on fundamen tals important? Could America be "one nation" if Americans did not share some basic commonality of outlook? FIGURE 9.2 Americans' Support for Fundamental Values As Tocqueville might have predicted, one negative consequence of the “marketplace of ideas” is that unpopular ideas might not be given a chance to compete, regardless of their potential merit. Should they seem at first glance to be unpopular, such potentially good ideas are likely to go unexpressed. Thus, they do not receive the consideration that might make them seem more appealing. For this reason, differences in public opinion can be very valuable. Differences in Public Opinion Despite widespread agreement, fundamental disagreements continue, over not only specific issues but also how we define our core areas of consensus. Political divisions between “liberals” and conservatives” reflect relatively consistent differences among Americans. Moreover, demographic differences (between and among racial and ethnic groups and between men and women) persist and define many of the important political battles in American politics. Beyond demographics, public opinion is also affected by other agents of socialization like education levels and membership in social groups. Differences between religious groups are one example. Agents of socialization are the social institutions, including families and schools, that help shape individuals’ basic political beliefs and values. EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY LIBERTY DEMOCRACY ANALYZING THE EVIDENCE While Americans disagree about many issues, they seem to agree on funda mental values. Virtually all Americans agree that equal ity of opportunity, liberty, and democracy are ex tremely important. Is this agreement on fundamen tals important? Could America be "one nation" if Americans did not share some basic commonality of outlook? FIGURE 9.2 Americans' Support for Fundamental Values Shaping Opinion Political opinions are also shaped in the “marketplace of ideas” by: – – – political leaders private groups the media Governments and politicians seek to monitor and shape public opinion to build public support for governmental actions and policies. In recent years, politicians have increasingly used technologies such as public opinion polls and media appeals, to shape public opinion. Other political actors, such as outside interest groups and the mass media, seek to sell their ideas and influence “tastes” in the idea marketplace. Measuring Public Opinion Public opinion polls, scientific instruments for measuring public opinion, are now prevalent in American politics. Media organizations – newspapers and television – often have in-house polling operations and report public opinion data on a regular basis. Pollsters begin by choosing a small group of respondents to represent the most important characteristics of an entire population. Selecting a representative sample is key to being able to make generalizations about a poll’s results. If done correctly, public opinion polls are remarkably accurate snapshots of public sentiment at any given time and reasonably good predictors of election outcomes. Poor construction and mistaken interpretations of polls can misrepresent public opinion: – – – – poor sampling question wording and ordering illusion of saliency illusion of central tendency THE QUESTION President Clinton has proposed setting aside approximately two thirds of an expected budget su rplus to fix the Social Security system. What do yo u think the leaders in Washington should do with the remainder of the surplus? ANALYZ NG THE EVIDE CE The public's desire for tax cuts can be hard to measure. Pollsters asking what should be done with the na tion's budget surplus got different results, depending on the specifics of the question. What differences in the two versions of the question do you think account for the different answers? Variation 1: Should the mo ney be used for a tax cut, or should it be used to fund new government programs? New p rog ram s Other pu rposes Don't know Variation 2: Should the money be used for a tax cut or should it be spent on program s for education, the environm ent, health care, crim e fighting, and military defense? Tax cut ·------I 22% Pro grams Other purposes Don't know 6% I] 3% FIGURE 9.4 It Depends on How You Ask 169% The Literary Digest Fiasco 1936 The Literary Digest had predicted the winner in every presidential election since 1916, and had based its 1936 predictions on the largest response to any poll in history -- over 10 million questionnaires were mailed using lists of automobile and telephone owners -- over 2.3 million people responded. FDR was just completing his first term – and was facing a tough challenge from Republican Alf Landon. The Literary Digest predicted that Landon would beat FDR -- 57 to 43 percent. At the same time, a young George Gallup sampled only 50,000 people and predicted that Roosevelt would win. Gallup's prediction was ridiculed as naive. But Roosevelt won with 62% of the vote. The size of the Digest's error is staggering. How could they have been so far off? The Literary Digest had made two fatal mistakes: Sampling Bias -- Their list of names came from lists of cars and phone owners – an inherently affluent sample (a much smaller portion of the population in the thirties than it is today). Self-Selection Bias -- The Digest had depended on voluntary response. FDR was the incumbent, and those who were unhappy with his administration were more likely to respond to the Digest survey. Presidential Candidates Harris Gallup Bush, G. W. Kerry ad r 49 4 1 49 49 51 48 0 Bush, G. W. Gore ad r 47 47 5 48 46 4 8 9 Clinton Dole Perot 51 39 52 41 9 7 8 1992 Clinton Bush, G. H. Perot 44 38 17 44 37 14 3 38 19 1988 Bush, G. H. Dukakis 51 47 53 42 5 1984 Rea an ondale 44 56 59 41 59 1980 Reagan Carter Anderson 4 43 47 44 8 51 1976 Carter Ford 48 45 4 49 51 8 Year 2004 2000 1996 9 TABLE 9.5 Two Pollsters and Their Records (top) l Actual Outcome 3 l 6 l l Year Presidential Candidates Harris Gallup Actual Outcome 1972 ixon cGovern 59 35 62 38 61 3 1968 Nixon Humphrey 40 43 13 43 42 15 43 43 1964 Johnson Goldwater 62 64 61 1960 K nnedy ixon 49 51 49 so 1956 Eisenho e St v nson 1952 Eisenho e Stevenson 1948 li uman Dewey Wallac 33 41 A ' '( 47 42 A* 36 o a k d Sl S5 44.5 9.5 9.6 45.1 49 e for 19 8 re round d. TABLE 9.5 Two Pollsters and Their Records (bottom) 9 42 Data from he Harns survey and the Gallup potl Chicago 1 1bun r I a . 1964-2004. Cou y of Loui Har , A Sy dicat , a iou pr Gallup Organization. * 39 60 41 SOURCE: OTE: F1gur S re percentages. All xc pt tho 1 58 Polls and their results can also influence public opinion. Poll results can produce the bandwagon effect whereby there is a shift in support to a candidate or opinion because the polls portray its popularity. Push polling is a technique in which the questions asked in a poll are designed not to measure a respondent’s opinion but to change it. More than simply representing (or misrepresenting) public opinion, polling actually transforms opinion and has an effect on its importance in politics. Prior to widespread poll use, politicians used informal methods to measure public sentiment. They would    monitor press reports and editorials; tabulate letters and phone calls from constituents; consult “opinion surrogates” like barbers and cab drivers. When polling replaced these more informal methods of measuring public opinion, the new technology actually transformed the opinion that influenced politics. When polls are conducted correctly they are remarkably accurate. For this reason, politicians and political observers pay a great deal of attention to polling. Public Opinion and Democracy What is the proper use of polls in American politics? To retain its democratic characteristics, American politics must reflect public opinion in important respects. But to remain republican, American politics must avoid constant decision making by plebiscite. Although most politicians deny being “poll-driven,” most politicians at the national level (and all modern presidents) use polls to make decisions. There are several problems associated with making policy based on polls.    The American public frequently lacks adequate information on policies. Public opinion often lacks coherence and is internally contradictory. Public support is volatile and changes over time. Approve Date Disapprove 8/27/2007 6/27/2007 4/27/2007 2/27/2007 12/27/2006 10/27/2006 8/27/2006 6/27/2006 4/27/2006 2/27/2006 12/27/2005 10/27/2005 8/27/2005 6/27/2005 4/27/2005 2/27/2005 12/27/2004 10/27/2004 8/27/2004 6/27/2004 4/27/2004 2/27/2004 12/27/2003 10/27/2003 8/27/2003 6/27/2003 4/27/2003 Percent Public Approval/Disapproval of President Bush's Handling of Iraq 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 To what extent should public support for the war in Iraq influence U.S. foreign policy? What are the drawbacks of conducting a war based on polls? What are the implications for a democracy in which public opinion is not effective in determining foreign policy? How Polarized Is Public Opinion? In the past several years, Americans have heard a lot about how divided they are. The American public is portrayed as increasingly "polarized"-with two camps, red and blue, that are far apart on key political questions. In particular, some have argued that America is experiencing a "culture war" over hot-button social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage. But how accurate is this characterization? The portrayal of a "culture warn between Democrats and Republicans is also misleading. While Americans have different opinions on issues such as abortion and gay marriage, these differences have increased only a little, if at all. For example, consider abortion. For over twenty-five years, the American National Election Study has asked the following question: ► l. By law, abortion should never be permitted. 2. The law should permit abortion only in cases of rape, incest, or when the woman's life is in danger. 3. The law should permit abortion for reasons other than rape, incest, or danger to the woman's life, but only after the need for the abortion has been clearly established. ► In this map, red states are those won by President Bush in 2004, and blue states are those won by John Kerry. Here, the United States looks very polarized. The South and much of the Midwest appear Republican. The West Coast and the Northeast appear Democratic. But this map is misleading. Which one of these opinions best agrees with your view? 4. By law, a woman should always be able to obtain an abortion as a matter of personal choice. Always ◄ Democrats Clear need Republica� Rape or incest ◄ What happens if we break down the map by counties instead of states? Even within red and blue states, there are areas where the majority votes differently. There are pockets of"blue" even in the Deep South and lots of"red" on the West Coast. ► Even more importantly, every state and county includes both Democrats and Republicans, making its true partisan color a shade of purple. If we color each county not based on whether Bush or Kerry won, but based on the percent of the vote that each of them received, the country hardly looks divided. Instead, much of the country is neither red nor blue. Never 1980 1984 Americans have not become more polarized on many issues, but there are two big exceptions: attitudes about President George W. Bush and attitudes toward the Iraq War. In the immediate aftermath of the September 11 terrorist attacks, both Republicans and Democrats tended to approve of President Bush. Over time, however, the gap between Republicans and Democrats increased dramatically. The gap with regard to the Iraq War also increased. 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 The average opinions of Democrats and Republicans have diverged somewhat over time, but both groups are still quite close to the middle. Democrats do not unanimously support abortion under all circumstances, and Republicans do not unanimously oppose abortion under any circumstance. The term uculture war" seems an exaggeration.

Chapter 9 Public Opinion

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