Demand Functions: Income Effects, Substitution Effects, and Labor Supply

Lecture Note 6 – Demand Functions: Income Effects, Substitution Effects, and Labor Supply 1 1 Demand Functions Now, let’s use the Indirect Utility function and the Expenditure function to get Demand functions. Up to now, we have been solving for: • Utility as a function of prices and budget • Expenditure as a function of prices and utility Implicitly we have already found demand schedules—a demand schedule is immediately implied by an individual utility function. For any utility function, we can solve for the quantity demanded of each good as a function of its price, holding the price of all other goods constant and holding either income or utility constant. 2 Two types of demand curves: Marshallian (uncompensated) and Hicksian (compensated) Alfred Marshall was the first economist to draw supply and demand curves. The ‘Marshallian cross’ is the staple tool of blackboard economics. Marshallian demand curves correspond to conventional market-level or consumer-level demand curves. They answer the question: • Holding income and all other prices constant, how does the quantity of good X demanded change with px ? We notate this demand function as dx (px , py , I). Marshallian demand curves implicitly combine income and substitution effects. The income effect is the change in consumption that arises if the consumer’s income falls but if prices stay the same. The substitution effect is the change in consumption that arises if the prices change but the agent is given enough income to maintain the same utility they had at the initial prices. They are net demands that sum over these two conceptually distinct behavioral responses to price changes. 2 • One can also conceive of a demand curve that is composed solely of substitution effects. This is called Hicksian demand (after the economist J. R. Hicks) and it answers the question: Holding consumer utility constant, how does the quantity of good X demanded change with px . We notate this demand function as hx (px , py , U ). The presence of U as a parameter in the Hicksian demand function indicates that this function holds consumer utility constant–on the same indifference curve–as prices change. Hicksian demand is also called compensated demand. This name follows from the fact that to keep the consumer on the same indifference curve as prices vary, one would have to adjust the consumer’s income, i.e., compensate them. For the analogous reason, the Marshallian demand is called uncompensated demand. • A demand curve for x as a function of px 3 • So a demand function is a set of tangency points between indifference curves and budget set holding I and py (all other prices) constant. Mathematics of uncompensated (‘Marshallian’) demand—Holding income constant • In our previous example where: U (x, y) = x.5 y .5 we derived: I px I y(px , py , I) = 0.5 py x(px , py , I) = 0.5 4 • In general we will write these demand functions (for individuals) as: x∗1 = d1 (p1 , p2 , ..., pn , I) x∗2 = d2 (p1 , p2 , ..., pn , I) ... x∗n = dn (p1 , p2 , ..., pn , I) • We call this “Marshallian” demand after Alfred Marshall (who first drew demand curves). You are also welcome to call it uncompensated demand. 2.1 Compensated (‘Hicksian’) demand—Holding utility constant • This is called “Hicksian” or compensated demand after John Hicks. This demand function takes utility as an argument, not income. This turns out to be an important distinction. 5 Mathematics of compensated (‘Hicksian’) demand—Holding utility constant • We can write this mathematically using the dual problem to utility maximization, which is expenditure minimization. Using the utility function from earlier examples, we had previously derived that:  x(px , py , U ) =  y(px , py , U ) = py px .5 px py .5 Up Up • These are Hicksian (compensated) demand function because they take prices and utility as arguments rather than prices and income. • We will denoted the Hicksian demand functions (of an individual) as: x∗1,c = h1 (p1 , p2 , ..., pn , U ) x∗2,c = h2 (p1 , p2 , ..., pn , U ) ... x∗n,c = hn (p1 , p2 , ..., pn , U ) 3 The effect of price changes on Marshallian (uncompensated) demand • A simple change in the consumer’s budget (i.e., an increase or decrease or I) involves a parallel shift of the feasible consumption set inward or outward from the origin.  The economics of this are straightforward. Since this shift preserves the price ratio ppxy , it   typically has no effect on the consumer’s marginal rate of substitution (MRS), UUxy , unless the chosen bundle is either initially or ultimately at a corner solution. • By contrast, a rise in the price of one good holding constant both income and the prices of other goods has economically more complex effects: 1. It shifts the budget set inward toward the origin for the good whose price has risen. In other words, the consumer is now effectively poorer. This component is the ‘income effect.’ 6 2. It changes the slope of the budget set so that the consumer faces a different set of market trade-offs. This component is the ‘price effect.’ • Although both shifts occur simultaneously, they are conceptually distinct and have potentially different implications for consumer behavior. Impact of an Increase in Px on the Budget Set 3.1 Substitution effect • In a two good economy, what happens to consumption of X1 if p1 ↑ p2 while utility is held constant? Formally, we are asking for the sign of this derivative:  Sign ∂X1 |U =U0 ∂p1  . • Provided that the axiom of diminishing MRS applies, we’ll have ∂X1 | ∂p1 U =U0 < 0. • In words, holding utility constant, the substitution effect is always negative. 7 3.2 Income effect • Consider now the effect of a change in income on in consumption of good X. The income effect is defined as ∂X/∂I, the change in the consumer’s quantity demanded of X for a rise in income I. • The income effect can be either negative or positive, depending on the specific good and the consumer’s income level. • If ∂X/∂I > 0 at given prices and income, good X is said to be a “normal” good. If ∂X/∂I < 0 at given prices and income, good X is said to be an “inferior” good. Inferior goods can be further subdivided into two groups, as we’ll see below. • What is the impact of an inward shift in the budget set in a 2-good economy (X1 , X2 )? 1. Total consumption? [Falls] 2. Utility? [Falls] 3. Consumption of X1 ? [Answer depends on normal, inferior] 4. Consumption of X2 ? [Answer depends on normal, inferior] Comparison of Compensated (hx ) and Uncompensated (dx ) Demand Curves for a Normal Good 8 Comparison of Compensated (hx ) and Uncompensated (dx ) Demand Curves for an Inferior Good 4 Income, substitution, and labor supply Although we typically think of demand functions as describing goods consumption, the same reasoning applies to labor supply functions. And seeing this same logic through the labor supply lens will deepen your understanding of the material. [Don’t worry: we’ll return to demand for goods in the next lecture when we study Giffen goods.] Consider the figure below, which depicts the Production Possibility Frontier of a subsistence household—that is, a household that works only for itself. For simplicity, let’s assume there’s only one household member, Zara. She can choose any bundle on the frontier of this budget set (or in the interior—but she would not, by non-satiation). If Zara works 24 hours per day, she maximizes consumption (point CC). If she sleeps or relaxes 24/7 (chillaxes as they say in Singapore) her consumption is zero (point LL). The curvature of the PPF comes from diminishing returns to home production (technically, this is a diminishing marginal rate of technical substitution between production and leisure/sleep). Presumably the first hours of home production in the day are highly productive (cooking, using the loo). Marginal 9 productivity falls as Zara does all of the essential stuff and becomes increasingly exhausted.1 Production Possibility Frontier of a Subsistence Household Let’s say Zara chooses point A on this PPF, meaning that A corresponds to the point where the PPF is tangent to the highest attainable indifference curve. Zara devotes time LL − L0 to household production and consumes goods C0 . She spends hours L0 − 0 on leisure and sleep (the complement of the time spent on household production). 1 This graphical depiction of the household time’s allocation trade-offs among sleep/leisure, home production, market production, and consumption, was introduced in a 1977 Journal of Political Economy paper by Reuben Gronau, “Leisure, Home Production, and Work – the Theory of the Allocation of Time Revisited.” It’s a remarkably compact graphical representation of a sophisticated problem. 10 Consumption-Leisure Bundle of Subsistence Household Now let’s introduce a market wage, Wm . This will change the equilibrium in a complex and interesting way. The wage Wm enters the figure as a slope that measures the additional consumption attainable per hour of labor supply. Wm connects to the PPF at the point of tangency between the wage slope and the PPF’s frontier. It thus expands the PPF by allowing Time-Consumption bundles that were previously infeasible (beyond the frontier). How does the market wage affect home production, labor supply, and consumption? A first thing to notice is that it will never make sense for Zara to spend more than LL−H1 hours on home production. Why? Because to the left of H1 , she gets more additional consumption per hour by supplying labor to the market at wage Wm than she does through home production. This is because the new wage-augmented PPF is steeper to the left of H1 than is the subsistence PPF. How much does Zara work? Zara’s new utility maximizing bundle is at point B. Her utility has risen to U1 , her home production has fallen to LL − H1 and her market work has risen from zero to H1 − L1 . Market work has risen by more than total work because home production has fallen. Zara’s hours of sleep and leisure have declined (L1 − 0 is shorter 11 than L0 − 0). Consumption has risen to C1 , with the length 0 − Ch corresponding to homeproduced goods and the length C1 −Ch corresponding to market-produced goods. (The figure implicitly assumes that home- and market-produced goods are perfect substitutes; that is, one unit of either is exactly as good as one unit of the other. If this were not the case, the figure would need another dimension). Thus, Z is consuming more, working more, chillaxing less, and happier for it (seen in her higher indifference curve). Adding a Market Wage Let’s now consider the impact the Earned Income Tax Credit. For simplicity, assume initially that the EITC is exclusively an hourly wage subsidy that does not have the complex phase-in and phase-out properties of the actual EITC; it just raises the hourly wage from Wm to Wm + WE as depicted below. 12 Adding an EITC Subsidy to the Market Wage What effect does this have on home production, market work, consumption, and wellbeing? You can see that home production unambiguously falls (from LL − H1 to LL − H2 ). This is immediate because the point of tangency between the wage locus and the PPF has moved southeast (down and to the right). Similarly, utility must rise: as long as Zara is participating in the subsidy (that is, her chosen location on the PPF is along the length containing Wm + WE ), she must be better off; otherwise she would not participate. Graphically, utility has risen from point B on indifference curve U1 to point C on indifference curve U2 . Notice also that consumption has risen to C2 , which exceeds consumption at the previous location B. Although consumption of home produced goods fell, consumption of market produced goods rose by more, leading to a net increase in consumption. The most interesting observation here is how the wage subsidy affects labor supply. Intuitively, you might think that Zara’s labor supply would necessarily increase since her wage has risen—and in the picture, it does. But the rise is modest (from H1 − L1 to H2 − L2 ). This modest increase reflects the net impact of two countervailing effects. Holding income constant, the rise in the wage would certainly cause Zara to work more; this is a pure substi13 tution effect. You can visualize this by rotating the ray Wm through point B until it parallels the ray Wm + WE . The indifference curve tangent to that rotated ray would clearly lie northwest of U1 , meaning more hours of labor supply, more consumption, and higher utility. To reiterate, this notional change would correspond to the pure substitution effect of a higher wage rate offered at the initial income level. But that’s not precisely what’s happening here. If Zara made no adjustment in her hours at all, her income/consumption would still rise when the EITC was implemented. Prior to the EITC policy, she was working hours H1 − L1 in the figure above. When the EITC is enacted, her income rises by the amount (H1 − L1 ) × WE with no change in labor supply. Thus, the wage subsidy has two components from Zara’s perspective: (1) a transfer of income equal to (H1 − L1 ) × WE ; and (2) an increase of WE in the hourly wage for each additional hour worked. All else equal, this income transfer is likely to reduce labor supply because leisure is, for most people, a normal good—the wealthier you get, the more of it you consume (holding the wage constant). Because of these countervailing substitution and income effects, a wage subsidy may either increase or reduce labor supply among those already working. Notice, however, that for a person who is not initially working, the wage subsidy has no income effect, but it does generate a potential substitution effect. A wage subsidy will therefore normally cause some non-workers to enter the labor market. This observation is quite important for the Eissa-Liebman paper, which we’ll be discussing next. The next figure depicts a case where the wage subsidy is substantially larger, reflected in a steeper slope for Wm + WEE as compared to Wm + WE in the figure above. Relative to the case with no EITC subsidy (wage is Wm ), home production falls from the LL − H1 to LL − H3 while market labor supply shifts from H1 − L1 to H3 − L3 . As drawn, the inward shift from L1 to L3 is slightly larger than the outward shift from H1 to H3 , meaning that market labor supply has fallen. Thus, the income effect of this large wage subsidy dominates the substitution effect for Zara. The subsidy raises her welfare, increases her consumption, increases her leisure and reduces her time spent on both home production and market work. She’s definitely more chillaxed than she used to be. 14 Adding a Generous EITC Subsidy to the Market Wage The green line in the final figure depicts the complex budget set created by the EITC. The first segment of the EITC budget set, starting from the PPF, is a subsidy to the hourly wage. This is referred to as the phase-in. (Though in fact, the marginal hourly subsidy is the same at each hour of work along this segment—so there’s really no phase-in, it’s all-atonce). The second segment, which parallels the original wage Wm , is the plateau in which the EITC neither increases nor decreases the marginal wage. Although there is no marginal wage subsidy in this range, the worker receives a subsidy on hours worked during the phasein range; thus inframarginal but not marginal hours are subsidized. The final segment is the phase-out range; here the marginal wage is below WM while the average wage is above Wm . This means that each additional hour of work is taxed, but the average subsidy is still positive because of the subsidy earned on the hours in the first segment (i.e. during the phase in). At the point where the phase-out rejoins Wm , the EITC is fully phased out. An individual who works at or above this level receives no subsidy at the margin or on average. (The logic is that if a worker’s earnings are sufficiently high, he or she is not entitled to a wage subsidy.) 15 Summing up: in the phase-in range, the EITC has both income and substitution effects (except for individuals who were not initially working—for them, there is no income effect). We generally expect the EITC to increase labor supply in this region, though it’s possible for the income effect to dominate, lowering labor supply. In the plateau range, the EITC has only an income effect; it raises total earnings but does not raise earnings at the margin, so we expect it to (modestly) decrease labor supply in this range. In the phase-out range, where the EITC reduces the marginal wage below Wm , both the income and substitution effects work in the direction of lowering labor supply. We thus expect the EITC to reduce labor supply in this range. How does Zara respond to the EITC? Her hours of home production fall from LL − H1 to LL − H4 while her hours of market work rise from H1 − L1 to H4 − L4 (both shift right, but home production shifts rightward by more). The EITC permits Zara to choose modestly higher consumption, modestly higher labor market hours, modestly higher leisure, and modestly lower household production. She is, of course, better off. Adding the Full EITC Budget Set to the Market Wage As this figure underscores, the complexity of the EITC budget set implies that many 16 things can happen. Because the EITC reduces the marginal wage during the phase-out range, it provides an incentive to reduce labor supply; many people will shift labor supply until they are at the kink where the plateau meets the phase-out region. Others whose initial market labor supply was quite low or zero will face a strong substitution effect but have little or no income effect, which should increase labor supply. For a person like Zara whose hours were already in the plateau range, there is an income effect but no substitution effect. Total hours worked (home + market) are likely to decline due to the income effect. But market hours may rise (as in this figure) because home production hours fall by more than total labor supply (meaning market hours have risen). In all cases, individuals receiving the EITC are made better off: whether they increase or decrease total work hours, market hours, and/or leisure, those who receive the subsidy must necessarily obtain a bundle of consumption, work, and leisure that is preferred to the initial starting point. 5 Bringing the theory to the data: the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86) The 1996 paper by Eissa and Liebman in the Quarterly Journal of Economics provides a credible test of whether the EITC affects labor supply in practice. TRA86 yielded a substantial expansion in the generosity of the EITC. As Eissa/Liebman note, at every level of earnings, the EITC amount after the expansion was at least as large as it was before. We would therefore expect it to increase the fraction of potentially eligible workers participating in the labor force (due to the substitution effect). For eligible workers already participating in the labor force, however, we would generally expect the EITC expansion to modestly reduce hours (due to the income effect). We’ll discuss the results of the Eissa/Liebman study in class. 17