Lecture 9: Turkey and Pakistan

17.584, Civil-Military Relations, Spring 2003 Lecture 9: Turkey and Pakistan Week 9 Reading Summaries Rizvi, Hasan-Askari, "The Military and Politics in Pakistan," Journal of Asian and African Studies 26 (1991): 27-42. Transition from Zie’s regime to Benazir Bhutto. Brief history of Pakistan civil-military 1948 Jinnah dies, 1958 first coup Ayub Khan, 1969 Yahya Khan takes charge, 1971 defeat by India in East Pakistan, Yahya Khan hands over to Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, 1977 Zie removes Bhutto, 1988 Zie dies, military hands it over to civilians, B. Bhutto PPP (Pakistan People’s Party)IDA Islamic MQM of Urdu-speaking muhajir.. Provincian conflict in Sind (Sindhians, Punjabis and Pakhtuns, MQM). Less in Bolukistan (’73-’77). Bhutto careful to mend fences with military in the first years but author claimed military will return if civil parties competition disintegrates to unrest. Heper, Metin, and Aylin Guney, “The Military and Democracy in the Third Turkish Republic,” Armed Forces and Society 22 (1996): 619-642. After brief comment on 1960 colonels vs ’71 and ’80 generals coups, the article proceeds with eulogy on chiefs of staff: Evren (’78-’87), Torumtay (’87-’90), and Gures (’94) presenting them as respecting democracy, allowing it to function. “argued that they too derived their power directly from the people.” Argues that Turkey is different from Brazil because the military is committed to Westernization and democracy. Sakallioglu, Umit Cizre, “The Anatomy of the Turkish Military’s Political Autonomy,” Comparative Politics (1997):151-166. “Civilian’s tenuous hegemony.” Military’s respect for democracy and civilian rule, he indexes power of the military through presidency, organization of defense and budget control, NSC (too wide authorities), procurement, international security and intelligence, and promotions. Lecture AN OUTLINE OF LATE OTTOMAN AND REPUBLICAN TURKISH HISTORY (bold indicates key dates for civil-military relations) 1774 Treaty of Kucuk Kainarci ends Russo-Turkish war; Russia annexes Crimea 1789 French Revolution; Sultan Selim III ascends to the throne 1792 Treaty of Jassy with Russia; Selim III launches Nizami Cedid reforms 1795 Army engineering school established 1798 Napoleon invades Egypt 1804 Serbian Revolt 1807 Janissary revolt deposes Sultan Selim III 1821 Greek Revolution 1826 Beneficial Event: Sultan Mahmut II crushes and abolishes Janissary corps 1828/9 War with Russia; Ottoman Empire accedes to Greek independence 1832/33 and 1839-41 Wars between Ottomans and Egypt, ruled by Mehmet Ali 1839 Tanzimat reforms launched by sultan Abdulmecit 1845 Consciption introduced; Christians eventually excluded 1853-56 Crimean War 1860s Jeune Turcs opposition circle forms in Paris favoring a constitution 1875/6 Bosnian and Bulgarian revolts; coup in Istanbul brings Young Ottomans to office, Sultan Abdulhamid II to power, and the first constitution in force 1877/8 War with Russia, Congress of Berlin, creation of Bulgaria, recognition of Serbia’s and Rumania’s independence; Abdulhamid II suspends constitution 1895 Committee of Union and Progress (Ittifak ve Teraki Cemiyeti) forms in Paris 1908 CUP coup deposes Abdulhamid; first elections; Austria annexes Bosnia; Bulgaria declares independence 1911/2 War with Italy leads to loss of Libya and Dodecanese islands; Albanian revolt 1912/13 Balkan wars lead to loss of most of European Turkey 1913 Babi Ali coup brings Enver-Talat-Cemal triumvirate to power 1914 Ottoman Empire sides with the Central Powers in World War I 1915 Abortive Franco-British landing at Gallipoli 1918 Armistice of Moudros between Ottoman Empire and Entente 1919 Mustafa Kemal lands at Samsun; Defense of Rights movement 1920 Treaty of Sevres: partition of the Ottoman Empire among the Entente powers 1919-22 War of Independence 1923 Treaty of Lausanne; establishment of the Turkish Republic 1924 First constitution of the republic; Republican People’s Party (RPP) and opposition Progressive People’s Party (PRP) formed 1925/6 Kurdish revolt suppressed; PRP closed down 1931 One-party state officially declared 1938 Kemal Ataturk dies, succeeded by Ismet Inonu 1945 Turkey declares war on Germany 1946 Opposition Democratic Party (DP) formed; republic’s first multi-party elections 1947 Truman Doctrine for Greece and Turkey 1950 DP wins landslide election 1951-53 Korean War 1952 Turkey joins NATO 1954 DP wins even more decisive election 1959 Britain, Greece, and Turkey agree to an independent Cyprus (Zurich accords); DP launches investigation committee on relations between army and RPP 1960 May 27 military coup; National Unity Committee led by General Gursel 1961 Menderes executed; second constitution; creation of senate, freedom of press and universities; Worker’s Party (Turkiye Isci Partisi) founded 1962 Gursel purges right wing extremist Colonel Alpaslan Turkes 1963/4 Inter-communal violence in Cyprus; abortive Acheson Plan 1965 DP successor Justice Party (Adalet Partisi), led by Suleyman Demirel, wins election 1966 Bulent Ecevit succeeds Inonu as RPP chair and turns the party left 1969 Turkes founds Nationalist Action Party (Milli Hareket Partisi-MHP) 1970 Necmedin Erbakan founds National Order Party (Milli Nizam Partisi) 1968-1970 Street and campus violence between left and right wing groups 1971 March 12 military ultimatum; Nihat Erim government; Workers’ Party and National Order Party closed down 1972 Erbakan resurfaces with National Salvation Party (Milli Selamet Partisi) 1974 Ecevit briefly in power; Turkish invasion of Cyprus after Greek junta coup 1974-77 JP-NAP-NSP coaltion led by Demirel; Turkes paramilitary controls police 1978 Kurdish Worker’s Party (PKK) founded by Abdullah Ocalan 1978-80 Ecevit and Demirel alternate in power as street violence between left and right wing groups escalates and political assassinations take place 1980 September 10 coup; political parties closed down 1982 Third constitution approved by referendum; General Evren becomes president 1983 Motherland Party (Anavatan Partisi-ANAP) wins election led by Turgut Ozal 1984 PKK launches resurrection campaign in Kurdish areas in the southeast 1987 Ban on politicians lifted by referendum—a defeat for Ozal 1989 Turgut Ozal elected president by parliament 1991 Gulf War; Demirel’s Dogru Yol Partisi (DYP) wins election 1993 Death of President Ozal, succeeded by Suleyman Demirel 1995 Islamic Welfare Party (Refah), led by Necmedin Erbakan, comes first in election and eventually forms coalition government with DYP 1997 Velvet coup: Prime Minister Erbakan resigns under military pressure 1998 Turkey forces Syria to expel Ocalan; S-300 missile crisis in Cyprus 1999 Ecevit coaltion government; Ocalan arrested while fleeing Greek embassy in Kenya; major earthquake hits Anatolia; Turkey acquires candidate status to EU 2002 Constitutional reform allows use of Kurdish in media and education; Islamic AK Party wins election; Kofi Anan proposes peace plan for Cyprus 2003 Anan Plan rejected by Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktas; Iraq War PRESIDENTS OF TURKEY (bold indicates military background) Mustafa Kemal Ataturk (1923-1938) Ismet Inonu (1938-1950) Celal Bayar (1950-1960) Cemal Gursel (1961-1966) Cevdet Sunay (1966-1973) Fahri Koroturk (1973-1980) Kenan Evren (1982-1989) Turgut Ozal (1989-1993) Suleyman Demirel (1993-2000) Ahmet Necdet Sezer (2000- ) 1982 CONSTITUTION, ARTICLE 118 [with 2001 amendments] The National Security Council shall be composed of the Prime Minister, the Chief of the General Staff, [Deputy Prime Ministers, Ministers of Justice,] the Ministers of National Defence, Internal Affairs, and Foreign Affairs, the Commanders of the Army, Navy and the Air Force and the General Commander of the Gendarmerie, under the chairmanship of the President of the Republic. Depending on the particulars of the agenda, Ministers and other persons concerned may be invited to meetings of the Council and their views heard. The National Security Council shall submit to the Council of Ministers its views on taking decisions and ensuring necessary coordination with regard to the formulation, establishment, and implementation of the national security policy of the State. The Council of Ministers shall give priority consideration to the decisions [shall evaluate decisions] of the National Security Council concerning the measures that it deems necessary for the preservation of the existence and independence of the State, the integrity and indivisibility of the country and the peace and security of society. The agenda of the National Security Councils shall be drawn up by the President of the Republic taking into account the proposals of the Prime Minister and the Chief of the General Staff. In the absence of the President of the Republic, the National Security Council shall meet under the chairmanship of the Prime Minister. The organisation and duties of the General Secretariat of the National Security Council shall be regulated by law. AN OUTLINE OF MODERN GREEK HISTORY (with reference to civil-military relations) 1814 The secret Greek nationalist organization Filike Etaireia is founded in Odessa 1821 Greek Revolution against Ottoman Empire 1822 Proclamation of the first constitution 1832 Kingdom of Greece established under King Otto 1843 Army-backed revolution forces Otto to introduce a constitution 1862-3 King Otto forced to resign by popular uprising; George I becomes king 1866-9 Cretan revolt 1894 The secret nationalist organization Ethnike Etaireia is founded by army officers 1897 Cretan revolt; disastrous war against Turkey instigated by Ethnike Etaireia 1904-8 “Macedonian Struggle” between Greek and Bulgarian-backed guerrilla units in Ottoman Macedonia 1909 Goudi coup: barracks pronunciamento forces King George to reform military and appoint the Cretan politician Eleftherios Venizelos as prime minister 1912-3 Balkan Wars; first tensions between Venizelos and Prince Constantine 1915 Abortive Entente Gallipoli operation; Venizelos resigns; Anglo-French landing at Salonika. 1916 Salonika coup establishes pro-Entente government in Northern Greece under Venizelos 1917 King Constantine ousted; Greece officially joins the Entente in World War I 1920 Treaty of Sevres establishes “Greece of the Two Continents and Five Seas”; Venizelos loses election and flees to France; King Constantine returns to Greece and continues war against Turkey 1922 Coup against King Constantine by retreating Greek forces on Chios island 1923 Counter-coup suppressed; treaty of Lausanne with Turkey negotiated by Venizelos 1924 Declaration of the Republic 1926 Dictatorship by General Theodoros Pangalos; he steps down after orchestrating a border war with Bulgaria 1930 Ataturk-Venizelos friendship accord 1933 Failed coup by Plastiras tries to prevent Venizelos’ defeat in the elections 1935 Failed Venizelist coup; ro-royalist counter-coup brings back King George II from exile 1936 August 4: in reaction to labor unrest, general Ioannis Metaxas establishes fascist dictatorship approved by George II 1940 Italian attack is repelled by Greek forces led by General Papagos 1941 German forces overrun Greece; government flees to Crete, then London and Cairo 1943 Leftist mutinies among Greek military personnel in the Middle East crushed with British help 1944 Axis withdrawal from Greece; return of King George II; fighting between forces of the communist resistance (EAM-ELAS) and Greek royalists and British units in Athens 1945 Right wing officers form the secret organization IDEA 1945-6 Tenuous political situation between left and right over amnesty and voter registers 1947-49 Greek Civil War 1951 General Papagos prevents coup by his supporters among IDEA officers 1952 Greece joins NATO; Papagos is appointed prime minister by King Paul 1955 Papagos dies; Constantine Caramanlis becomes prime minister; beginning of EOKA anti-British guerrilla campaing in Cyprus 1958 National Union of Young Officers, an offshoot of IDEA, founded by George Papadopoulos 1959 London-Zurich accords establish Cyprus as independent state 1961 Caramanlis accused of rigging elections by opposition leader George Papandreou 1963 Leftist MP Lambrakis murdered by right-wing paramilitaries; Caramanlis flees to Paris after fallout with palace; George Papandreou’s centrist party wins election; intercommunal violence breaks out in Cyprus 1964 George Papandreou rejects Acheson Plan for Cyprus 1965 The ASPIDA scandal implicating Andreas Papandreou, the son of the prime minister, in plotting a leftist coup forces George Papandreou to resign 1965-7 Political instability as King Constantine II refuses to call elections 1967 April 21 Colonel coup led by George Papadopoulos forestalls elections; King Constantine launches abortive counter-coup in December and flees abroad 1973 Abortive naval mutiny; abolition of the monarchy; student uprising at Athens Polytechnic; Brigadier Dimitrios Ioannides sidesteps Papadopoulos 1974 Ioannides stages coup in Cyprus against Archbishop Makarios; Turkish invasion; junta collapses in Cyprus and Greece; Caramanlis returns; referendum for abolition of the monarchy 1981 Greece enters the EEC; Andreas Papandreou becomes the first socialist prime minister of Greece 1987 Military crisis with Turkey over the continental shelf in the Aegean Sea 1989 Papandreou-Ozal dialogue begins at Davos; Papandreou loses the election 1996 Papandreou dies and is succeded by Costas Simitis; Imia islet crisis with Turkey 1998 S-300 missile crisis in Cyprus 1999 Ocalan affair leads to resignation of Foreign Minister Theodoros Pangalos (the younger); earthquake diplomacy by foreign minister George Papandreou, son of Andreas, signals Greek-Turkish rapprochement 2003 Anan Plan rejected; Cyprus signs accession to the EU PRESIDENTS OF GREECE (bold indicates officer background, underlined for periods of military rule) Pavlos Koudouriotes (1924-1926, 1926-1929) Theodoros Pangalos (1926) Alexandros Zaimis (1929-1935) Georgios Papadopoulos (1973) Phaidon Gizikis (1973-1974) Mikhail Stasinopoulos (1974-1975) Constantinos Tsatsos (1975-1980) Constantinos Caramanlis (1980-1985, 1990-1995) Christos Sartzetakis (1985-1990) Kostis Stephanopoulos (1995- ) GENERAL HISTORICAL SCHEMA Greece: establishment of parliamentary democracy (19th century) → [beginnings of military involvement and professionalization due to international factors (1890s-1917)] → militarized struggle between left and right (1916-1974) → stable parliamentary democracy (1974- ) Turkey: beginnings of military involvement and professionalization due to international factors (19th century) → modernizing revolution and single party rule (1908-1946) → parallel development of parties and military as a political actor (1946- ) CONTROL MECHANISMS Turkey Non-intervention norm (objective): not yet in place Political indoctrination (subjective): 20s-30s, 80s; difficult in a pluralist society Legal/constitutional: article 118 Elite cooptation: declined since 1930s, ended in 1989 Divide and conquer: the army is the dominant service Bribe: reason for 1960 coup, OYAK Small Military: N/A; high threat environment and low technological sophistication Citizen Army: N/A; requires a civil society committed to democracy Greece Non-intervention norm: violated by politicians, strong since 1974 Political indoctrination/parallel hierarchy: N/A in too pluralist a political system Legal/constitutional: violated by politicians and/or military, strong after 1974 Elite cooptation: briefly practiced after major wars (Kanaris, Koundouriotes, Papagos) [not exactly; see also Metaxas, Kondylis, Plastiras] Divide and conquer: across party lines (opposite effect); navy mostly center-leftist Bribe: across party lines (opposite effect) Small Military: N/A; high threat environment and low technological sophistication Citizen Army: N/A if political/social conflict is high Note: we have not examined how the same or similar mechanisms are used by the military to control civilians OTHER THOUGHTS 1) Horizontally (Turkey) vs. vertically (Greece) politicized militaries a. Time dependence argument of norm development (→ fewer years of military rule in Greece due to parliamentary tradition) [actually it’s 17 years for both, but less mil/total years for Greece since 1843 than for Turkey since 1908—but why start Turkey in 1908?]] b. Formative period argument (Greece: 19th century; modeled on Britain— Turkey: 1920s-1930s; totalitarian influence) c. Hypothesis on relative synchronization of institutional development (parties developed before military professionalized in Greece) i. Professionalization in developing societies: initially bad? 2) Pace of military withdrawal from politics: external shock (1974 for Greece) 3) Effect on Greek-Turkish relations? Wars vs. MIDs (all modern wars started when one of the two countries was democratic and the other authoritarian, but there were many periods of tension while both were democratic, a period of friendship in the 1930s when both were authoritarian, and the 1974 Turkish invasion continued after civilians returned to power in Greece and Cyprus) a. Mansfield-Snyder argument about democratization and war [Boaz] 4) Role of international norms and US: interwar and Cold War vs. post-Cold War (Britain in the interwar period and the US in the Cold War tolerated or even applauded military rule when it suited their interests but the origins of the coups were more domestic than international; after the end of the Cold War, both countries belong or aspire to belong in international organizations that do not tolerate dictatorships; however, velvet coups in Turkey, as the 1997 one, remain a possibility)