Resistance to Autocratization: Actors, Strategies and Contexts

GROUP 7 Topic: Resistance to autocratization: actors, strategies and contexts Presented by: Team 8 Academic year: 2024-2025 1 Table of content Literature review : resistance to autocratization: actors, strategies, and contexts............ 3 I. Introduction...........................................................................................................................3 II. Definition of concepts.......................................................................................................... 3 2.1.Autocratization............................................................................................................... 3 2.2.Democratic Resilience....................................................................................................3 2.3.Opposition actors............................................................................................................4 2.4.Strategies........................................................................................................................ 4 a) Strategies of autocratization:......................................................................................4 b) Strategies of resistance to autocratization:.................................................................5 III. Theoretical Framework.....................................................................................................5 3.1.Media Freedom : a constructivist approach................................................................... 5 3.2.International Support : an institutionalist approach....................................................... 7 3.3.Economic Stability : a realist approach..........................................................................8 3.4.Explication of the chosen I.V.: “Media Freedom: a constructivist approach”............... 9 3.5.New research question and hypothesis.........................................................................10 IV. Empirical Strategy............................................................................................................11 4.1.Case selection............................................................................................................... 11 4.2.Data collection and analysis......................................................................................... 11 4.3.Operationalization........................................................................................................ 13 V. Conclusion.......................................................................................................................... 14 Bibliography........................................................................................................................... 15 Scientific articles................................................................................................................ 15 Newspaper Articles............................................................................................................ 15 Official documents............................................................................................................. 16 Books..................................................................................................................................16 Books Chapters.................................................................................................................. 16 Pledge plagiarism................................................................................................................... 17 2 Literature review : resistance to autocratization: actors, strategies, and contexts I. Introduction Autocratization became more and more frequent in the democratic world, as we see it in the European Union with Hungary under Victor Orbán, Turkey under Erdoğan or more far away like in Venezuela under Maduro. Across the whole world we observe a rise of autocratic ideas, movements, and policymakers. Frequently autocratization comes with makeable restrictions on media freedom, civil liberties and the independence of the judicial power. This helps us to understand the concept “autocratization” and to act against it, with diverse strategies and actors. As non-governmental organizations or international institutions and far more. This paper seeks to explore the key actors involved in the resistance against autocratization, the strategies, the contextual actors and to define the right way to resist against this phenomenon. This, then, is our initial research topic, which we will reformulate at the end of this introduction using our central concepts and dependent variables: Resistance to autocratization: actors, strategies and contexts. II. Definition of concepts 2.1. Autocratization Autocratization and its definition is a vast subject with a lot of interpretations. The two political scientists provide us with a definition which is based on several aspects. Autocratization is defined as any move away from full democracy, encompassing both sudden democratic breakdowns, for example a coup, and gradual processes as a democratic backslide, that occur within both democratic and autocratic regimes. Autocratization is seen as a gradual process, not just a sudden move from democracy to dictatorship. It can happen in different stages, with democracy weakening at different levels over time.1 2.2. Democratic Resilience Democratic Resilience refers to the ability of democracy to resist, adapt to, and recover from challenges or pressures that threaten its institutions, processes, and norms. This concept has 1 Cassani, A., Tomini, L. (2019). What Autocratization Is. In: Autocratization in post-Cold War Political Regimes. Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. 3 become increasingly relevant in national security, international development, and domestic governance discussions. It focuses on how well established or consolidating democracies can survive and even strengthen in response to internal crises, such as political polarization, and external pressures, such as global political or economic shifts. While the term is growing in popularity among policymakers and scholars, it still requires further conceptual clarity and operationalization to fully understand its unique contribution to the study of democracy and resistance against autocratization waves.2 2.3. Opposition actors Opposition actors are individuals, groups, or institutions that stand against a government's efforts to undermine democratic values and practices. They challenge policies, actions, or measures that threaten democracy. These actors, which can include political parties, civil society organizations, independent media, or other non-governmental groups, oppose authoritarian moves like censorship, the restriction of civil liberties, or the excessive concentration of power in the hands of leaders. In an environment where democratic norms are being eroded, opposition forces face significant challenges. The ruling authorities may employ tactics such as media harassment, restrictions on civil society, or manipulation of electoral processes, all of which hinder opposition efforts to organize effectively. Rather than overt repression, modern autocratization often involves more covert measures that slowly undermine democracy, making it harder for opposition forces to mobilize and resist. Ultimately, opposition actors are essential in defending democracy. By advocating for political freedoms, maintaining pluralism, and challenging the concentration of power, they play a critical role in safeguarding democratic institutions. Their efforts are vital to keeping democratic systems intact amidst growing authoritarian pressures.3 2.4. Strategies a) Strategies of autocratization: The strategies of autocratization consist of progressively reducing the democracy to instate an authoritarian regime. These strategies include, amongst others, limitation of political rights, limitation of civil liberties, manipulation of the electoral process, restriction of liberty of the 2 Holloway, J., & Manwaring, R. (2022). How well does ‘resilience’ apply to democracy? A systematic review. Contemporary Politics, 29(1), 68–92. 3 Cassani, A., Tomini, L. op. cit. 4 press, and consolidation of political repression. These changes are aiming at transforming the regime into an autocracy where the power is more repressive and exclusive.4 b) Strategies of resistance to autocratization: The strategies of resistance to autocratization can consist of actions of mobilization and reinforcement of democracy. The aim of those actions is to undo the actions of the autocratization. This can be achieved through the support of independent media, through coalitions between political parties to defend the democratic institutions, and organization of non-violent civil movement. The non-violent civil movements play a crucial role in the defense of democracy as they raise awareness and put pressure on the leaders to maintain the basic civic and political rights.5 III. Theoretical Framework In this assignment, we will analyse how different factors can affect and influence the resistance to autocratization. First, we’ll introduce three key factors that could influence resistance: media freedom, international support, and economic stability. Three different theoretical approaches will be used for each independent variable : constructivism for media freedom, institutionalism for international support, and rational choice for economic stability. Then, we will choose media freedom as the independent variable to formulate a hypothesis that will explain the new research question, which is « How does media freedom participate in democratic resistance to autocratization through the publishing of discourse and the shaping of collective citizen opinion and identity? ». 3.1. Media freedom: a constructivist approach In our case, media freedom is a crucial factor in the resistance against autocratization, as the freedom of the media is a fundamental right. This leads us to the question: ‘Is media freedom a fundamental right? No international human rights catalogue includes an express provision protecting the media. For example, the European Court of Human Rights mentions cinema enterprises, 4 Cassani, A., Tomini, L. (2019). What Autocratization Is. In: Autocratization in post-Cold War Political Regimes. Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. 5 Fetrati, J. (2022). Non-violent resistance movements and substantive democracy. Democratization, 30(3), 378–397. 5 broadcasting, and television, but only with a look to the authorisation of Member States to license these entities, not by a specific article that protects them. However, the fact that media freedom isn't codified is not an argument against accepting media freedom as a legal significance, as written law. Where media freedom is not codified, it often happens to be a derivative right, deduced from freedom of expression. Fundamental rights like freedom of expression are normative principles that require the law to respect, apply and protect theses freedoms so media freedom is therefore both at the same time, a principle within the framework of freedom of expression6 Media freedom is an important factor in the resistance against autocratization because it provides the liberty of expression to any group of individuals, no matter if they are in the minority or majority. Moreover, the freedom of expression supports diversity, helps to separate, abuses a concentration of power by the authorities, and further provides significant transparency, which strengthens all kinds of democratic movements. The Civic mobilization in Belarus report provides us with a good example. In Belarus, the free media played a fundamental role in the 2020 democratic movement and in the protests for fair and free elections. In 2020, the free media, mainly the internet, provided many opportunities for citizens to discuss information, express their political views, and observe the opinions of other citizens or groups. It was an opportunity to freely discuss the political situation. The spread of social media and upcoming new communication sources, especially Viber in Belarus in 2020, transformed the ways people communicated at the grassroots level. Specifically, it led to the proliferation of group chats for people who wanted to cooperate in dealing with common issues.7 Media freedom is a constructivist norm that is shaped by the citizens’ collective aspirations and resistance strategies. It is an indispensable factor to challenge authoritarian regimes and promote and protect democracy. 6 Oster, J. (2015). Media freedom as a fundamental right (Vol. 30). Part 1: The theoretical foundations of media freedom. Cambridge University Press. 7 Natalia Forrat, Alyena Batura, Natallia H, Laura Adams. Freedom House. Civic mobilization in Belarus: The case of the 2020 election. 24-29. https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/FHPrecursorsBelarus11152022.pdf 6 3.2. International Support: an institutionalist approach We are now going to explore the role of international support in resisting autocratization with an institutionalist approach. By analyzing the influence of international institutions, norm diffusion, and strategic interactions, we can better understand how external actors contribute to democratic resilience. Autocratization is an « umbrella concept » that includes authoritarian increasing, which is where authoritarian characteristics become more pronounced in already autocratic governments, it can be defined qualitatively as a shift in government toward autocracy or quantitatively as any progress away from democracy8. According to the V-Dem democracy report (2023), 72% of the world’s population, or around 5.7 billion people, will live in autocracies by 2022, and based on the V-Dem democracy report (2024), autocratization is ongoing in 42 countries, home to 35% of the world’s population. International support for resistance against autocratization has become a crucial element in maintaining democratic authority9. International organizations that support democratic endeavors include the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and nonprofit groups (NGOs). These organizations set standards and guidelines that help strengthen resistance actions. According to the book «Europe Undivided» by Milana Anna Vachudova10, the European Union became a key actor in promoting democratic principles and practices across Eastern Europe by backing changes. The EU's growth strategy has significantly sped up the democratization of Eastern Europe. The EU has encouraged countries to adopt reforms and strengthen institutions by offering membership benefits. Based on the work of L. Tomini & S. Gibril & V. Bochev11, western democracies have been instrumental in promoting democracy globally, with the United States utilising a combination of diplomatic pressure, economic incentives, and support for civil society. Additionally, the 8 Tomini, L., Gibril, S., & Bochev, V. (2023). Standing up against autocratization across political regimes: a comparative analysis of resistance actors and strategies. Democratization, 30(1), 119–133. 9 Varieties of Democracy, (2023), Defiance in the Face of Autocratization, (report),6-23. 10 Vachudova, M. A.(2005) Europe Undivided: Democracy, Leverage, and Integration after Communism. Oxford University Press. 11 Tomini, L., Gibril, S., & Bochev, V. (2023), op cit. 7 European Union uses its membership benefits to promote democratic reforms in its neighbours, especially in Eastern Europe, making the EU as well as the United States key actors in terms of democracy promotion. The United Nations, through its programs and initiatives, strengthens institutions and promotes human rights. Regional organizations like the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) monitor elections and support democratic processes. International support for resistance against autocratization is a complex and multifaceted process. By applying the lens of institutionalism, we can better understand the mechanisms through which international actors influence domestic political dynamics. Ultimately, strengthening institutions and promoting democratic norms are key points that international actors do to help resist autocratization and maintain democratic governance. 3.3. Economic stability: a realist approach Economic stability is, too, a crucial point of resistance to autocratization. In fact, the lack of economic stability and basic economic needs are often the triggers of movements and protest in fledgling democracies.12 As seen in the article “State of the world 2019: autocratization surges – resistance grows”, the lack of basic economic needs is the base of every protest. If the population in any regime does not feel as though their needs are met, it will lead to protests that aim to take the power of the nation in order to be able to meet their needs. Only peaceful and organized protests are shown to bear fruit. The example of the 2011 uprising in Tunisia was given.13 In the 2011 uprising in Tunisia, the main actors were the government, who, although it increased the GDP, maintained a high level of unemployment, and on the other side, the population who grew annoyed with the unemployment and inequality between classes.14 12 Maerz, S. F., Lührmann, A., Hellmeier, S., Grahn, S., & Lindberg, S. I. (2020). State of the world 2019: autocratization surges – resistance grows. Democratization, 27(6), 909–927. 13 Maerz, S. F., Lührmann, A., Hellmeier, S., Grahn, S., & Lindberg, S. I. (2020). State of the world 2019: autocratization surges – resistance grows. Democratization, 27(6), 909–927. 14 Tran E. (2018). “Tunisian Success: An Economic Analysis”, International review, 28 September 2018. 8 This resistance against the regime in place led to a drastic decrease in tourism and foreign investment.15 After the revolution, the new government made sure to create jobs by reviving the tourism sector of the economy and therefore lowering drastically the level of unemployment and the inequalities.16 Because the democratic regime is often seen as the solution, we can say that, in order to resist autocratization, democracies can strive to ensure the basic economic needs. Some economic needs are the purchasing power of the population, the ability to feed, clothe and house their family, and the ability to get access to cultural events. All of that can be regrouped under, and ensured by, economic stability.17 In conclusion, the economic stability of a democratic regime is a key factor in resisting the process of autocratization. 3.4. Explication of the chosen IV: “Media Freedom: a constructivist approach” The three independent variables we picked are all crucial to understanding the investigation of resistance to autocratization. The constructive, realist, and institutionalist theoretical frameworks are extremely helpful approaches, allowing one to build up a research question and a hypothesis. Yet, only one of them will be used in our further research, which will be the constructive theoretical framework. The choice of media freedom as an independent variable is guided by multiple factors. The first one is the impact of media freedom on the diversity of opinions in public. Free and independent media provide a key condition making expression of a multitude of opinions possible. This enhances the construction of a common identity and strengthens the resistance against autocratic shifts in politics and society. Moreover, in a state in which media freedom is guaranteed, abuses of power are less likely because the government’s activities are more 15 Tran E. (2018). “Tunisian Success: An Economic Analysis”, International review, 28 September 2018. Tran E. (2018). “Tunisian Success: An Economic Analysis”, International review, 28 September 2018. 17 International Foundation for Electoral Systems, (2023), Les chemins de la résilience face au recul démocratique, (report), https://www.ifes.org/publications/paths-democratic-resilience-era-backsliding, 8-21 16 9 transparent, as the state’s authorities are accountable to journalists’s questions and investigations. 18 Now, the choice to select media freedom is also guided by the theoretical framework, explaining the phenomena. The concept of constructivism, for instance, suggests that our reality is constructed around social communication and interaction. As the media shapes public opinion, the constructive framework allows us to understand how the media determines our understanding of democratic principles and opposition to autocracy. Moreover, reporters and journalists may also strengthen democratic values in society, which are key elements of the constructive theoretical framework. Promoting these cornerstones may eventually result in the formation of a truly democratic identity. 3.5. New research question and hypothesis The independent variable most relevant to the study of resistance to autocratization is media freedom, rooted in a constructivist framework. Indeed, if freedom of expression in the media is a primordial and pioneering value of democracy, it is a freedom at risk in systems undergoing autocratization, and it is for this very reason that the media can play a very important role in resistance to autocratization. This independent variable then underlines the importance of access to democratic ideas and discourses for the general public in this constructivist context of resistance to autocratization, focusing on societal behaviour. So, with media freedom and its constructivist theoretical framework as the independent variable and resistance to autocratization, including its contexts, actors, and strategies, as the dependent variable, we can imagine a targeted research question such as: “How does media freedom participate in democratic resistance to autocratization ?”. This question recognizes the involvement of media freedom in a challenge to autocratization by exposing abuses of power and reinforcing democratic values, while at the same time enabling a crucial collective democratic identity. To answer this newly constructed question, let's consider a hypothesis that takes into account the democratic importance of media freedom and, thus, its potential in resistance to autocratization: “Media freedom contributes to democratic resistance to autocratization Kumar, K. (2006). International assistance to promote independent media in transition and post-conflict societies. Democratization, 13(4), 652–667 18 10 through the diffusion of critical democratic discourses, influences the formation of an informed and mobilized citizen-critical public opinion in the face of autocratic strategies, and thus serves as a democratic counterweight”. Based on a constructivist theoretical framework that considers communication and interaction processes as the basis of social realities, this hypothesis proposes media freedom as a key democratic tool influencing collective norms and values of resistance to autocratization. IV. Empirical Strategy 4.1. Case Selection The case selection will be a typical case qualitative of a small-N case that focuses on one country, South Korea, with our time frame extending from the beginning of the candlelight protest in 2016 to the end of it in 2017. This time frame will cover the entire protest to better understand how the media helped resist and support the movement. South Korea demonstrates robust media engagement during the candlelight protests19, and this scenario occurred in a democratic state. For this case, we choose the constructivist approach; therefore, we will focus on analyzing the ideas and perceptions of media freedom in South Korea. This is why we found it interesting to choose documents, databases, and surveys as methods of collection, even though the first two first are on a macro level while surveys are on a micro level. The first can provide us with general information and data, while the latter allows us to grasp what certain individuals think on this matter. 4.2. Data Collection and Data Analysis For the approach of this study, we chose the lens of constructivism, given that our research question is “How does media freedom participate in democratic resistance to autocratization?”. Therefore, we will address the study in the form of three methods of data collection: databases and documents in order to address the macro level part of our analysis, and surveys in order to address the micro level part of our analysis. 19 Lee, J., Oh, C., & Kim, Y.-C. (Eds.). (2021). The Candlelight Movement, Democracy, and Communication in Korea (1st ed.). Routledge Advances in Korean Studies 11 The first method of data collection that we will use is databases. Multiple organizations offer huge databases such as Freedom House and UNHCR Refworld, which have produced reports on the freedom of the press in South Korea, as well as the NGO Reporters Without Borders, which provides an index on world press freedom in which we will look for the years 2016 and 2017. The second method is documents. We will examine documents related to the media freedom in South Korea and policies aimed at improving or restricting that freedom in this country. Through these documents, we can observe the evolution of media freedom. The third and last method is surveys. This method will allow us to dive into the micro aspect of our analysis. We will conduct a direct survey. The survey will involve a probability sample that will be ensured to reflect the proportions of the entire population by asking a few identifying questions at the beginning. The questions asked will mainly consist of closed questions, such as yes or no questions, multiple-choice questions, and scale questions. We will also include a few open-ended questions to obtain more in-depth answers and gather information that we might not have expected to get. The survey will be administered on paper but anonymously to ensure respondents feel safe and secure, without fearing tracking (such as via the internet) or concerns over sharing their identity. We chose surveys for their practicality in data analysis. They allow us to reach a larger audience while maintaining a representative sample by selecting and targeting individuals with specific, focused questions. We will not be present while they take the survey to further ensure they feel safe in their anonymity, thus collecting responses that more accurately reflect the reality of the situation. We could offer monetary incentives to those who complete the survey as a way to encourage participation. To analyze the data, we will identify trends in the databases and ensure they represent causative relationships rather than mere correlations. We can then link these to policy changes that have been made with the help of the documents. With the survey, we will compare the findings at the macro and micro levels to assess whether the population aligns with the policies found in the documents and the trends observed. The closed questions will allow us to analyze quantitative data, while the open-ended questions will provide us with more qualitative data. This approach will allow us to better understand both the qualitative 12 and the quantitative data and the potential trends that occurred during this specific time and place. 4.3. Operationalization To operationalize our dependent variable, which is resistance to autocratization, we will study the reasons motivating citizens to become involved in resisting autocratic shifts in society. Therefore, we will conduct an anonymous and representative survey targeting those who are engaged in fighting autocratization, such as activists, citizens, and journalists. The survey will be conducted on paper, including yes / no, multiple-choice and open-ended questions. Examples of the yes / no questions include : « Do you believe that your country is still a democracy? Yes or No? », and « Do you believe that the current autocratization will affect your daily life? Yes or No? » For multiple-questions, we could potentially ask : « What are your main concerns if your country were to turn into an autocracy? ». Respondents could then select multiple answers such as « privation of freedom of speech », « dismantling of the separation of powers », « restriction of freedom of the press », and « an extremist ideology framing the state and its citizens ». Further open-ended questions could include: « How did you connect with others in organizing your resistance? ». When it comes to operationalizing our independent variable, we will examine a variety of different media sources in our documents and databases. In other words, we will establish a corpus classified by the origins of the sources as well as of the dates. Afterwards, we will create a survey in which we could ask questions such as: « Do you consider the media in your country to be free? », « Do you believe that the media play a crucial role in shaping your political opinions? », and « Do you think that the media’s role in investigating government’s activities ensures greater state transparency? ». Once we have the responses to the survey, we will then examine whether the documents and databases are linked to the answers. 13 V. Conclusion In this paper, we explored resistance to autocratization, as well as its key actors, strategies, and contexts.After correctly defining the various concepts required for our research, we identified three independent variables —media freedom, international support, and economic stability— based on three theoretical frameworks : constructivist, institutionalist, and realist. Next, we determined the independent variable to be used (media freedom), which we used to formulate a new research question, followed by a hypothesis. Finally, we presented an empirical strategy using macro-level data to operationalize our independent variable (databases, documents) and micro-level data to operationalize our dependent variable (anonymous surveys) to investigate the role of media freedom in this process. 14 Bibliography Scientific articles Burnell, P., & Schlumberger, O. (2010). Promoting democracy - promoting autocracy? International politics and national political regimes. Contemporary Politics, 16(1), 1–15. Fetrati, J. (2022). Non-violent resistance movements and substantive democracy. Democratization, 30(3), 378–397. Hellmeier, S., Cole, R., Grahn, S., Kolvani, P., Lachapelle, J., Lührmann, A., Maerz, S. F., Pillai, S., & Lindberg, S. I. (2021). State of the world 2020: autocratization turns viral. Democratization, 28(6), 1053–1074. Holloway, J., & Manwaring, R. 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(2018). “Tunisian Success: An Economic Analysis”, International review, 28 September 2018. 15 Official Document Freedom House, (2023), Reviving News Media In An Embattled Europe, (report), https://freedomhouse.org/report/2023/reviving-news-media-embattled-europe, 12-13. International Foundation for Electoral Systems, (2023), Les chemins de la résilience face au recul démocratique, (report), https://www.ifes.org/publications/paths-democratic-resilience-era-backsliding, 8-21. Natalia Forrat, Alyena Batura, Natallia H, Laura Adams. Freedom House. Civic mobilization in Belarus: The case of the 2020 election. 24-29. https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/FHPrecursorsBelarus11152022.pdf Varieties of Democracy, (2023), Defiance in the Face of Autocratization, (report),https://www.v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf, 6-23. Varieties of Democracy, (2024), Democracy Winning and Losing at the Ballot, (report), https://www.v-dem.net/documents/44/v-dem_dr2024_highres.pdf, 6-31. Books Lee, J., Oh, C., & Kim, Y.-C. (Eds.). (2021). The Candlelight Movement, Democracy, and Communication in Korea (1st ed.). Routledge Advances in Korean Studies Riaz, A., & Rana, M. S. (2024). How autocrats rise. In Global political transitions. Tomini, L., & Cassani, A. (2019). Autocratization in Post-Cold War Political Regimes. Palgrave Macmillan, London. Vachudova, M. A.(2005) Europe Undivided: Democracy, Leverage, and Integration after Communism. Oxford University Press. Book chapters Cassani, A., Tomini, L. (2019). What Autocratization Is. In: Autocratization in post-Cold War Political Regimes. Challenges to Democracy in the 21st Century. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. 16