Evidence from Transportation - Figures and Tables

Figures and Tables 0 .05 Density .1 .15 .2 Figures 0 10 2004 40 2010 0 Density .1 .2 .3 1998 20 30 NOx (grams per gallon) 0 20 40 HC (grams per gallon) 2004 2010 0 Density .05 .1 1998 60 0 100 1998 200 300 CO (grams per gallon) 2004 400 500 2010 Figure 1: Distribution of three criteria pollutant emissions across all vehicles in 1998, 2004, and 2010 (observations above the 90th percentile are omitted) 36 2 Density 1 1.5 .5 0 1.5 2 2.5 3 NOx (grams per gallon) 3.5 4 0 .2 Density .4 .6 .8 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.0735 0 5 10 HC (grams per gallon) 15 0 .1 Density .2 .3 .4 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.1056 3 4 5 6 CO (grams per gallon) 7 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.1362 Figure 2: Distribution of three criteria pollutant emissions of a 2001 4-door, 1.8L, Toyota Corolla in 2009 (observations above the 90th percentile are omitted) 37 .3 Density .1 .2 0 5 10 15 NOx (grams per gallon) 2001 2004 2007 0 .2 Density .4 .6 .8 1999 20 2 4 2001 2004 10 2007 0 Density .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 1999 6 8 HC (grams per gallon) 5 10 1999 15 20 CO (grams per gallon) 2001 2004 25 2007 Figure 3: Distribution of three criteria pollutant emissions of a 1995 3.8L, FWD, Ford Windstar in 1999, 2001, 2005, and 2009 (observations above the 90th percentile are omitted) 38 30 Median Miles per Day by NOx Quartile 20 25 15 35 Median Miles per Day by CO Quartile 20 25 30 15 1998 1998 1st quartile 2000 1st quartile 2000 2004 Year 2004 Year 3rd quartile 2006 3rd quartile 2006 2008 2008 4th quartile 2010 4th quartile 2010 1998 1998 1st quartile 2000 1st quartile 2000 2nd quartile 2002 2nd quartile 2002 2004 Year 2004 Year Figure 4: Change in VMT over sample by pollutant quartile 2nd quartile 2002 2nd quartile 2002 30 Median Miles per Day by HCs Quartile 20 25 15 28 Median Miles per Day by MPG Quartile 20 22 24 26 18 39 3rd quartile 2006 3rd quartile 2006 2008 2008 4th quartile 2010 4th quartile 2010 1 1998 2000 2002 2004 Year 2006 2008 2010 1998 2000 1st quartile 2002 2nd quartile 2004 Year 2006 3rd quartile 2008 2010 4th quartile Change in the log VMT by NOx Quartile .85 .9 .95 1st quartile 3rd quartile 4th quartile 1998 1998 1st quartile 2000 1st quartile 2000 2nd quartile 2002 2nd quartile 2002 2004 Year 2004 Year Figure 5: Change in the log of VMT over sample by pollutant quartile 2nd quartile Change in the log VMT by CO Quartile .9 1 .8 1.1 .8 1 Change in the log VMT by HCs Quartile .85 .9 .95 .8 1 Change in the log VMT by MPG Quartile .92 .94 .96 .98 .9 40 3rd quartile 2006 3rd quartile 2006 2008 2008 4th quartile 2010 4th quartile 2010 −1 −.8 Elasticity −.6 −.4 −.2 0 .2 Elasticity of VMT With Respect to the Price of Gasoline 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentile HC CO Weight NO MPG Figure 6: Non-parametric relationships between elasticity and externality 41 Elasticity of VMT over Centiles of g/mile HC 0 Elasticity −1 −.8 −.6 −.4 −.2 Elasticity −1 −.8 −.6 −.4 −.2 0 .2 LOWESS With Subsets of N*.05 .2 Unsmoothed 0 20 40 60 Percentile 80 100 0 40 60 Percentile 80 100 0 Elasticity −1 −.8 −.6 −.4 −.2 Elasticity −1 −.8 −.6 −.4 −.2 0 .2 LOWESS With Subsets of N*.27 .2 LOWESS With Subsets of N*.16 20 0 20 40 60 Percentile 80 100 0 40 60 Percentile 80 100 0 Elasticity −1 −.8 −.6 −.4 −.2 Elasticity −1 −.8 −.6 −.4 −.2 0 .2 LOWESS With Subsets of N*.49 .2 LOWESS With Subsets of N*.38 20 0 20 40 60 Percentile 80 100 0 20 40 60 Percentile 80 100 Figure 7: The effect of bandwidth on the non-parameteric function 42 .02 Density .04 .06 2008 0 0 .01 Density .02 .03 1998 0 50 100 150 Externality (2008 Cents/Gallon) 200 250 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 4.4080 0 50 100 150 Externality (2008 Cents/Gallon) 200 kernel = epanechnikov, bandwidth = 0.3483 Figure 8: Distribution of Externality Per Gallon—Vertical Lines Indicate Naive and Marginal Uniform Tax 43 250 Figure 9: Social Damages of Pollution, VMT Elasticity and Cobenefits of a Gasoline Tax, By County 44 Co−Benefits from Gas Tax (per ton of CO2) 100 200 300 400 Los Angeles San Joaquin 0 Merced Tehama Butte Yuba Glenn Mendocino Humboldt SanContra Francisco Costa Alameda Fresno San Bernardino 10 12 14 16 Log of Population Figure 10: Estimated county-level co-benefits verse the log of county population 45 Tables Table 1: Summary Statistics Vehicle Age Year All 4-9 10-15 16-28 1998 2008 Weighted Fuel Economy 23.49 (5.300) 23.29 (5.224) 23.67 (5.319) 23.67 (5.477) 24.09 (5.402) 23.04 (5.157) Average $/mile 0.0893 (0.0394) 0.0843 (0.0369) 0.0902 (0.0400) 0.103 (0.0420) 0.0581 (0.0133) 0.128 (0.0306) Odometer (00000s) 1.188 (0.594) 0.923 (0.448) 1.362 (0.564) 1.607 (0.684) 1.022 (0.521) 1.292 (0.606) Grams/mile HC 0.749 (1.180) 0.226 (0.281) 0.762 (1.064) 2.049 (1.712) 1.412 (1.524) 0.510 (0.973) Grams/mile CO 5.269 (12.84) 0.521 (1.664) 4.915 (11.07) 18.47 (21.25) 12.27 (18.95) 3.136 (10.26) Grams/mile NOx 0.664 (0.638) 0.328 (0.309) 0.751 (0.608) 1.321 (0.740) 1.060 (0.921) 0.498 (0.537) Failed Smog Check 0.0947 (0.293) 0.0455 (0.208) 0.117 (0.321) 0.202 (0.401) 0.0557 (0.229) 0.107 (0.309) Average HH Income 48277.8 (17108.2) 49998.8 (17702.9) 47279.1 (16633.2) 45188.5 (15628.0) 50228.4 (18067.0) 48044.1 (16887.5) Truck 0.386 (0.487) 0.403 (0.491) 0.367 (0.482) 0.375 (0.484) 0.331 (0.471) 0.426 (0.494) Vehicle Age 10.39 (4.477) 6.644 (1.615) 12.08 (1.682) 18.45 (2.424) 8.975 (3.448) 11.49 (4.741) N 7015260 3333774 2699413 981234 386753 541246 Statistics are means with standard deviations presented below in parentheses. Weighted fuel economy is from EPA. Dollars per mile is the average gasoline price from EIA in between Smog Checks divided by fuel economy. Average household income is taken from the 2000 Census ZCTA where the Smog Check occurred. Dataset contains one observation per vehicle per year in which a Smog Check occurred. 46 47 1.161 1.187 1.094 0.982 0.876 0.791 0.715 0.735 0.638 0.572 0.512 0.478 0.462 10432374 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 N 1.051 0.983 0.915 0.857 0.816 0.780 0.742 0.713 0.667 0.634 0.602 0.590 0.566 SD 0.536 0.455 0.441 0.427 0.418 0.401 0.380 0.393 0.382 0.377 0.373 0.379 0.402 Mean CV 10432374 1.662 1.665 1.535 1.354 1.145 0.997 0.855 0.852 0.718 0.628 0.545 0.496 0.460 Mean 1.866 1.864 1.826 1.769 1.679 1.563 1.469 1.444 1.351 1.261 1.185 1.148 1.002 SD 0.504 0.464 0.460 0.464 0.446 0.432 0.421 0.455 0.430 0.431 0.400 0.412 0.427 Mean CV Hydrocarbons 10666348 15.400 15.227 13.539 11.689 9.694 7.940 6.561 6.375 5.157 4.308 3.556 3.120 2.741 Mean 24.739 24.952 23.849 23.123 21.381 19.503 17.581 17.519 15.887 14.509 13.064 12.147 10.901 SD 0.516 0.485 0.476 0.461 0.430 0.395 0.363 0.379 0.350 0.334 0.317 0.316 0.323 Mean CV Carbon Monoxide 13397795 0.043 0.043 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.046 0.046 0.046 Mean 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.011 0.010 SD Gasoline Note: Mean CV is the average VIN Prefix-level coefficient of variation (SD/Mean). Gasoline is measured in gallons per mile, while the remaining pollutant rates are measured in grams per mile. Mean Year Nitrogen Oxides Table 2: Average Pollutant Rates Per Mile Traveled by Year Table 3: Vehicle Miles Traveled, Dollars Per Mile, and Nitrogen Oxides (Quartiles by year) ln(DPM) (1) Model 1 (2) Model 2 -0.265** (0.045) -0.117** (0.038) ln(DPM) * NO Q1 (3) Model 3 (4) Model 4 (5) Model 5 -0.177** (0.027) -0.147** (0.025) -0.037** (0.011) -0.086** (0.011) -0.133** (0.011) -0.189** (0.012) ln(DPM) * NO Q2 ln(DPM) * NO Q3 ln(DPM) * NO Q4 (6) Model 6 -0.044 (0.032) 0.041+ (0.023) -0.062* (0.026) -0.158** (0.027) -0.288** (0.030) ln(DPM)*NO Centile -0.001** (0.000) NO Q2 -0.083** (0.012) -0.144** (0.016) -0.166** (0.020) NO Q3 NO Q4 0.378 (0.800) -1.246 (1.012) -2.297* (1.116) NO Centile Truck Time Trend Time Trend-Squared Year Fixed Effects Vintage Fixed Effects Demographics Make Fixed Effects Vin Prefix Fixed Effects Vehicle Fixed Effects Observations R-squared (7) Model 7 -0.001 (0.001) 0.058+ (0.035) -0.281** (0.040) 0.002** (0.000) 0.062 (0.046) -0.355** (0.029) 0.003** (0.000) 0.049** (0.009) -0.388** (0.026) 0.003** (0.000) 0.006 (0.057) -0.318** (0.023) 0.002** (0.000) -0.019 (0.041) 0.000 (0.000) -0.027 (0.070) -0.000 (0.001) -0.046 (0.053) 0.000 (0.001) Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes 3640433 0.216 3640433 0.224 2979289 0.234 3640433 0.149 3640433 0.120 2979289 0.116 2979289 0.117 48 Table 4: Vehicle Miles Travelled, Dollars Per Mile, and Externality Quartiles Quartile Nitrogen Oxides Hydrocarbons Carbon Monoxide Fuel Economy Vehicle Weight 1 0.0406 0.0505 0.0442 -0.183 -0.124 2 -0.0617 -0.0645 -0.0625 -0.173 -0.129 3 -0.158 -0.154 -0.156 -0.119 -0.158 4 -0.288 -0.315 -0.317 -0.108 -0.179 Table 5: Vehicle Miles Traveled, Dollars Per Mile, and Nitrogen Oxides (Quartiles by age range) ln(DPM) (1) 4-9 (2) 10-15 (3) 16-27 -0.013 (0.020) -0.126** (0.027) -0.119+ (0.064) ln(DPM) * NO Q1 0.208** (0.062) -0.002* (0.001) 0.016 (0.146) -0.001 (0.002) Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes 1548634 0.124 1535833 0.096 555966 0.091 1215676 0.121 1269332 0.097 494281 0.091 ln(DPM) * NO Q4 NO Q2 NO Q3 NO Q4 Year Fixed Effects Vintage Fixed Effects Demographics Vin Prefix Fixed Effects Vehicle Fixed Effects Observations R-squared (6) 16-27 0.362** (0.049) -0.003** (0.001) ln(DPM) * NO Q3 Time Trend-Squared (5) 10-15 0.119** (0.036) 0.026 (0.018) -0.029 (0.019) -0.099** (0.025) -0.113 (0.694) -0.516 (0.959) -3.574** (1.230) 0.463** (0.094) -0.004** (0.001) ln(DPM) * NO Q2 Time Trend (4) 4-9 49 -0.002 0.035 (0.029) (0.073) -0.076** 0.002 (0.021) (0.066) -0.153** -0.151* (0.034) (0.073) -0.249** -0.248** (0.031) (0.065) -1.351* -2.616 (0.647) (2.241) -2.797** -7.279** (0.897) (1.949) -4.890** -7.861** (0.817) (1.842) 0.108 -0.186 (0.081) (0.181) -0.001 0.001 (0.001) (0.002) Table 6: VMT Elasticity for a Sample of Households, 2000-2008 ln(DPM) * MPG Q1 ln(DPM) * MPG Q2 ln(DPM) * MPG Q3 ln(DPM) * MPG Q4 (1) (2) (3) -0.0881∗∗∗ (0.0145) -0.0882∗∗∗ (0.0145) -0.0324∗ (0.0145) -0.0263 (0.0148) -0.0902∗∗∗ (0.0145) -0.0910∗∗∗ (0.0145) -0.0385∗∗ (0.0145) -0.0339∗ (0.0148) -0.0290∗∗∗ (0.00402) 0.0628∗∗∗ (0.00418) -0.0739∗∗∗ (0.00932) 0.150∗∗∗ (0.0106) -0.0970∗∗∗ (0.0149) -0.0976∗∗∗ (0.0148) -0.0448∗∗ (0.0148) -0.0401∗∗ (0.0152) -0.0296∗∗∗ (0.00402) 0.0626∗∗∗ (0.00417) -0.0753∗∗∗ (0.00932) 0.149∗∗∗ (0.0106) -0.00514 (0.00455) 0.00763 (0.00473) 0.0224∗∗∗ (0.00520) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7549359 0.113 7549359 0.113 7549359 0.113 ln(DPM) * Higher MPG in HH ln(DPM) * Lower MPG in HH Higher MPG in HH Lower MPG in HH ln(DPM) * HH Income Q2 ln(DPM) * HH Income Q3 ln(DPM) * HH Income Q4 Year Fixed Effects Vintage Fixed Effects Demographics Vehicle Fixed Effects Observations R-squared Standard errors in parentheses ∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗∗∗ p < 0.001 50 Table 7: VMT Elasticity by Income Quartile, 2000-2008 40% Sample of HHs HHs, with HH FE 10% Sample of VINs -0.0659∗∗∗ (0.0146) -0.0706∗∗∗ (0.0145) -0.0588∗∗∗ (0.0144) -0.0461∗∗ (0.0146) -0.0560∗∗∗ (0.00560) -0.0591∗∗∗ (0.00555) -0.0451∗∗∗ (0.00552) -0.0316∗∗∗ (0.00553) -0.0524∗ (0.0242) -0.0559∗ (0.0241) -0.0679∗∗ (0.0239) -0.0527∗ (0.0242) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes 7549359 0.112 7549359 0.165 2489373 0.107 ln(DPM) * HH Income Q1 ln(DPM) * HH Income Q2 ln(DPM) * HH Income Q3 ln(DPM) * HH Income Q4 Year Fixed Effects Vintage Fixed Effects Demographics Vehicle Fixed Effects Observations R-squared Standard errors in parentheses ∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗∗∗ p < 0.001 51 Table 8: Hazard of Scrappage: Cox Proportional Hazard Model Model 1 Dollars per Mile DPM * Failed Smog Check Failed Last Smog Check 0.917* (0.040) 1.109** (0.029) 7.293** (0.234) DPM * NO Quartile 1 DPM * NO Quartile 2 DPM * NO Quartile 3 DPM * NO Quartile 4 Model 2 1.080** (0.025) 7.686** (0.241) 0.792** (0.046) 0.859** (0.039) 0.874** (0.034) 0.927* (0.032) Model 3 0.926** (0.024) 1.085** (0.021) 8.282** (0.187) Model 4 Model 5 1.068** (0.020) 8.819** (0.199) 0.867** (0.040) 0.891** (0.031) 0.916** (0.021) 0.940** (0.015) Vehicle Ages 10-15 DPM * NO Quartile 1 0.774** (0.070) 0.761** (0.067) 0.770** (0.063) 0.745** (0.058) 7.156** (0.558) 1.143** (0.050) DPM * NO Quartile 2 DPM * NO Quartile 3 DPM * NO Quartile 4 Failed Smog Check DPM * Failed Smog Check Vehicle Ages 16+ DPM * NO Quartile 1 1.037+ (0.023) 1.028 (0.025) 1.034 (0.030) 1.034 (0.035) 10.150** (0.487) 1.022 (0.019) DPM * NO Quartile 2 DPM * NO Quartile 3 DPM * NO Quartile 4 Failed Smog Check DPM * Failed Smog Check Station ZIP Code Characteristics Quadratic Time Trend in Days Vehicle Characteristics Quartiles of NO Stratified on Vin Prefix Observations Yes Yes Yes No No 3170553 Yes Yes Yes Yes No 2682641 Yes Yes Yes No Yes 3170553 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 2682641 Note: Coefficients on dollars per mile scaled for a 5-cent change 52 Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 2682641 53 0.781 0.764 0.770 0.746 1.031 1.024 1.045 1.050 0.774 0.761 0.770 0.745 1.037 1.028 1.034 1.034 Hydrocarbons 1.027 1.038 1.025 1.048 0.775 0.776 0.765 0.741 0.957 1.060 1.130 1.104 0.714 0.724 0.835 0.909 1.280 1.054 1.014 0.906 0.905 0.771 0.757 0.697 Carbon Monoxide Fuel Economy Vehicle Weight Statistics are exponentiated coeficients of a Cox proportional hazards model. Interpret as hazard ratios. Vehicle Ages 10-15 Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 Vehicle Ages 16+ Quartile 1 Quartile 2 Quartile 3 Quartile 4 Nitrogen Oxides Table 9: Effect of a 5-cent/mile Increase in Driving Cost on the Hazard of Scrappage Table 10: Average and Marginal Pollution Externality Average Externality (¢/gal) Marginal Externality (¢/gal) 61.20 54.28 48.52 41.12 33.92 28.68 24.23 21.17 18.64 16.19 14.38 86.00 76.58 70.90 61.51 51.10 43.93 36.54 31.59 27.46 23.87 21.12 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Dollar figures inflation adjusted to year 2008. Table 11: Ratios of DWL with Tax to DWL With No Tax Statewide Tax County-Level Taxes Vintage Tax County/Vintage Tax Average Marginal Average Marginal Average Marginal Average Marginal 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.616 0.631 0.638 0.698 0.700 0.719 0.763 0.769 0.819 0.814 0.837 0.564 0.568 0.582 0.633 0.671 0.698 0.752 0.762 0.811 0.810 0.831 0.570 0.587 0.590 0.657 0.652 0.665 0.719 0.726 0.782 0.776 0.801 0.516 0.519 0.530 0.587 0.621 0.643 0.707 0.717 0.774 0.772 0.794 0.351 0.329 0.328 0.365 0.349 0.321 0.359 0.329 0.397 0.313 0.320 0.346 0.324 0.326 0.362 0.346 0.319 0.358 0.328 0.397 0.312 0.320 0.299 0.266 0.261 0.297 0.284 0.251 0.293 0.260 0.335 0.243 0.249 0.293 0.262 0.258 0.295 0.282 0.250 0.292 0.259 0.334 0.243 0.247 Average 0.728 0.698 0.684 0.653 0.342 0.340 0.276 0.274 Notes: DWL with no tax calculated based on the difference in emissions from imposing a tax equal to the actual externality per gallon consumed by a particular car. Marginal tax computed as the weighted average of externality per gallon, using the negative slope of the vehicle’s demand curve as the weight. 54 Table 12: Proportion of Vehicles for which a Uniform Tax Overshoots the Optimal Tax Mean Fleet Average Fleet Marginal County Average County Marginal Vintage Average Vintage Marginal County/Vintage Average County/Vintage Marginal N 0.724 0.794 0.714 0.784 0.706 0.726 0.671 0.706 3605189 mean coefficients ∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗∗∗ p < 0.001 Table 13: Ratios of DWL with Tax to DWL With No Tax, Scrapping Most Polluting Vehicles Percentile Scrapped None 1% 2% 5% 10% 25% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.564 0.568 0.582 0.633 0.671 0.698 0.752 0.762 0.811 0.810 0.831 0.466 0.474 0.493 0.528 0.585 0.629 0.675 0.699 0.731 0.759 0.780 0.441 0.458 0.478 0.511 0.573 0.619 0.666 0.689 0.720 0.748 0.768 0.415 0.442 0.462 0.495 0.560 0.608 0.654 0.672 0.700 0.725 0.737 0.405 0.437 0.459 0.491 0.556 0.604 0.645 0.648 0.658 0.658 0.612 0.415 0.444 0.460 0.437 0.496 0.472 0.439 0.371 0.344 0.355 0.349 Average 0.698 0.620 0.606 0.588 0.561 0.417 Notes: DWL with no tax calculated based on the difference in emissions from imposing a tax equal to the actual externality per gallon consumed by a particular car. Marginal tax computed as the weighted average of externality per gallon, using the negative slope of the vehicle’s demand curve as the weight. 55 Table 14: Ratio of Remaining Deadweight Loss With Tax to Deadweight Loss with No Tax: Calibration R(τnaive ) R(τ ∗ ) σ2 σB2 ρ 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1.407 1.408 1.438 1.457 1.492 1.517 1.525 1.474 1.482 1.487 1.498 1.465 1.471 1.486 1.496 1.506 1.535 1.531 1.539 1.539 1.547 1.533 0.322 0.299 0.308 0.311 0.283 0.283 0.265 0.265 0.251 0.247 0.252 0.789 0.785 0.794 0.799 0.802 0.807 0.806 0.796 0.795 0.796 0.799 0.755 0.755 0.763 0.767 0.775 0.781 0.782 0.771 0.773 0.774 0.777 Average 1.471 1.513 0.281 0.797 0.770 Table 15: Ratios of DWL with Tax to DWL With No Tax Statewide Tax County-Level Taxes Vintage Tax County/Vintage Tax Average Marginal Average Marginal Average Marginal Average Marginal 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.571 0.590 0.591 0.648 0.619 0.625 0.647 0.644 0.692 0.674 0.701 0.434 0.426 0.433 0.472 0.490 0.503 0.544 0.548 0.595 0.585 0.605 0.536 0.558 0.556 0.619 0.586 0.589 0.619 0.617 0.669 0.653 0.682 0.397 0.390 0.397 0.440 0.459 0.469 0.516 0.522 0.573 0.564 0.586 0.318 0.301 0.299 0.329 0.324 0.314 0.351 0.347 0.397 0.368 0.388 0.295 0.279 0.281 0.312 0.310 0.303 0.341 0.336 0.390 0.362 0.383 0.280 0.256 0.250 0.280 0.281 0.268 0.309 0.306 0.360 0.329 0.349 0.254 0.235 0.235 0.266 0.268 0.259 0.301 0.296 0.353 0.325 0.345 Average 0.636 0.512 0.608 0.483 0.340 0.327 0.297 0.285 Notes: DWL with no tax calculated based on the difference in emissions from imposing a tax equal to the actual externality per gallon consumed by a particular car. Marginal tax computed as the weighted average of externality per gallon, using the negative slope of the vehicle’s demand curve as the weight. 56 Table 16: Proportion of Vehicles for which a Uniform Tax Overshoots the Optimal Tax Mean Fleet Average Fleet Marginal County Average County Marginal Vintage Average Vintage Marginal County/Vintage Average County/Vintage Marginal N 0.279 0.487 0.291 0.463 0.317 0.330 0.286 0.306 3605189 mean coefficients ∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗∗∗ p < 0.001 Table 17: Ratios of DWL with Tax to DWL With No Tax, Scrapping Most Polluting Vehicles Percentile Scrapped None 1% 2% 5% 10% 25% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 0.434 0.426 0.433 0.472 0.490 0.503 0.544 0.548 0.595 0.585 0.605 0.338 0.338 0.350 0.373 0.407 0.433 0.464 0.485 0.511 0.534 0.556 0.316 0.323 0.336 0.358 0.396 0.424 0.456 0.479 0.506 0.532 0.558 0.293 0.308 0.323 0.347 0.388 0.419 0.455 0.482 0.518 0.552 0.590 0.286 0.307 0.323 0.358 0.398 0.436 0.485 0.520 0.577 0.625 0.681 0.323 0.374 0.405 0.514 0.546 0.624 0.686 0.708 0.757 0.779 0.806 Average 0.512 0.435 0.426 0.425 0.454 0.593 Notes: DWL with no tax calculated based on the difference in emissions from imposing a tax equal to the actual externality per gallon consumed by a particular car. Marginal tax computed as the weighted average of externality per gallon, using the negative slope of the vehicle’s demand curve as the weight. 57 58 361.8 470.6 478.1 450.1 389.8 380.8 386.3 372.4 321.7 249.1 261.8 219.3 3.473 4.518 4.589 4.321 3.742 3.655 3.708 3.575 3.088 2.391 2.513 2.105 (Tons) (Gallons) 218.3 323.1 318.9 289.4 241.1 230.0 228.0 214.2 178.5 133.0 135.3 109.7 ($) 61.47 71.53 69.49 66.98 64.44 62.92 61.50 59.92 57.79 55.62 53.85 52.08 (Per CO2) DWL 0.201 -0.676 -0.138 -0.0765 0.136 0.299 0.461 0.634 0.532 0.395 0.385 0.257 (NOx $) 50.88 115.7 105.2 89.26 64.63 50.05 41.59 31.48 21.86 16.41 13.00 10.57 (HC $) 54.48 134.2 117.7 94.95 67.78 50.32 40.25 31.46 21.92 16.57 13.22 10.90 (CO $) 105.3 247.8 222.1 183.8 132.4 100.5 82.18 63.45 44.22 33.29 26.55 21.66 (Total $) Criteria Benefit 42.37 77.51 70.11 63.85 55.16 43.86 36.18 29.76 24.89 25.18 19.73 19.87 (% DWL) 27.23 55.44 48.72 42.77 35.55 27.60 22.25 17.83 14.39 14.01 10.63 10.35 (Per CO2) 34.24 16.09 20.77 24.22 28.89 35.32 39.25 42.09 43.41 41.62 43.22 41.73 (Per CO2) Net Cost Note: All units are in millions. Dollar figures are inflation adjusted to 2008 terms. NOx and HC are valued as in Muller and Mendelsohn’s (2009) Baseline scenario by the county where each vehicle received its Smog Check. The values vary substantially across counties, but a population-weighted average for the state values HC at $3638.62 per ton per year, and NOx at $125.26 per ton per year. CO is valued at $802.88, as per the median value of Matthews and Lave (2000). Average 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ∆ CO2 ∆ Consumption Table 18: Cobenefits of a Gasoline Tax, No Heterogeneity, Muller and Mendelsohn (2009) Baseline Values 59 196.7 Average 1.889 2.612 2.564 2.489 2.243 2.101 2.047 1.875 1.470 1.258 1.090 1.027 119.4 186.8 178.1 166.7 144.5 132.2 125.9 112.3 84.95 69.98 58.68 53.47 ($) 61.47 71.53 69.49 66.98 64.44 62.92 61.50 59.92 57.79 55.62 53.85 52.08 (Per CO2) DWL 0.180 -0.540 -0.129 -0.121 0.135 0.256 0.383 0.577 0.466 0.375 0.311 0.267 (NOx $) 49.15 105.6 92.91 84.70 65.65 51.74 43.79 32.79 22.32 17.02 13.23 10.88 (HC $) 58.00 130.3 112.3 99.62 78.15 60.05 49.69 38.13 25.16 18.69 14.40 11.50 (CO $) 107.0 234.0 204.5 183.8 143.7 111.8 93.69 71.36 47.83 35.98 27.86 22.58 (Total $) Criteria Benefit 79.51 126.6 115.5 110.8 99.86 84.86 74.67 63.76 56.56 51.71 47.77 42.46 (% DWL) 50.57 90.58 80.29 74.22 64.35 53.39 45.92 38.21 32.69 28.76 25.73 22.11 (Per CO2) 10.90 -19.05 -10.80 -7.237 0.0904 9.525 15.58 21.71 25.10 26.86 28.13 29.97 (Per CO2) Net Cost Note: All units are in millions. Dollar figures are inflation adjusted to 2008 terms. NOx and HC are valued as in Muller and Mendelsohn’s (2009) Baseline scenario by the county where each vehicle received its Smog Check. The values vary substantially across counties, but a population-weighted average for the state values HC at $3638.62 per ton per year, and NOx at $125.26 per ton per year. CO is valued at $802.88, as per the median value of Matthews and Lave (2000). 272.1 267.0 259.3 233.6 218.9 213.3 195.3 153.1 131.1 113.5 106.9 (Tons) (Gallons) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ∆ CO2 ∆ Consumption Table 19: Cobenefits of a Gasoline Tax, Taking Heterogeneity into Account (No Extensive Margin Effect), Muller and Mendelsohn (2009) Baseline Values 60 194.6 272.1 265.2 252.8 225.5 210.1 206.3 194.1 153.9 131.7 118.7 110.2 1.868 2.612 2.546 2.426 2.164 2.017 1.980 1.863 1.477 1.264 1.140 1.058 (Tons) (Gallons) 118.0 186.8 176.9 162.5 139.5 126.9 121.8 111.6 85.37 70.32 61.37 55.12 ($) 61.47 71.53 69.49 66.98 64.44 62.92 61.50 59.92 57.79 55.62 53.85 52.08 (Per CO2) DWL 0.166 -0.540 -0.134 -0.128 0.116 0.228 0.343 0.540 0.454 0.370 0.312 0.266 (NOx $) 50.37 105.6 92.45 83.42 65.15 51.73 44.47 34.60 24.72 20.10 16.96 14.88 (HC $) 59.91 130.3 111.7 97.79 77.23 59.82 50.23 40.49 29.08 23.89 20.46 18.05 (CO $) 110.1 234.0 203.4 180.7 142.3 111.6 94.87 75.46 54.13 44.23 37.63 33.08 (Total $) Criteria Benefit 85.44 126.6 115.8 111.8 102.5 88.18 78.18 67.85 63.69 63.27 61.70 60.35 (% DWL) 53.89 90.58 80.44 74.86 66.02 55.48 48.08 40.66 36.81 35.19 33.22 31.43 (Per CO2) 7.577 -19.05 -10.95 -7.874 -1.581 7.436 13.42 19.26 20.98 20.43 20.63 20.65 (Per CO2) Net Cost Note: All units are in millions. Dollar figures are inflation adjusted to 2008 terms. NOx and HC are valued as in Muller and Mendelsohn’s (2009) Baseline scenario by the county where each vehicle received its Smog Check. The values vary substantially across counties, but a population-weighted average for the state values HC at $3638.62 per ton per year, and NOx at $125.26 per ton per year. CO is valued at $802.88, as per the median value of Matthews and Lave (2000). Average 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ∆ CO2 ∆ Consumption Table 20: Cobenefits of a Gasoline Tax, Taking Heterogeneity into Account, Muller and Mendelsohn (2009) Baseline Values 61 361.8 470.6 478.1 450.1 389.8 380.8 386.3 372.4 321.7 249.1 261.8 219.3 3.473 4.518 4.589 4.321 3.742 3.655 3.708 3.575 3.088 2.391 2.513 2.105 (Tons) (Gallons) 218.3 323.1 318.9 289.4 241.1 230.0 228.0 214.2 178.5 133.0 135.3 109.7 ($) 61.47 71.53 69.49 66.98 64.44 62.92 61.50 59.92 57.79 55.62 53.85 52.08 (Per CO2) DWL 15.44 26.46 28.24 23.44 18.34 16.14 14.75 13.40 10.18 7.582 6.480 4.804 (NOx $) 334.3 760.5 691.1 586.4 424.6 328.7 273.1 206.8 143.6 107.8 85.41 69.41 (HC $) 54.48 134.2 117.7 94.95 67.78 50.32 40.25 31.46 21.92 16.57 13.22 10.90 (CO $) 403.9 919.7 836.4 704.5 510.5 395.0 328.0 251.5 175.6 131.8 105.1 85.05 (Total $) Criteria Benefit 163.5 287.7 264.0 244.7 212.8 172.4 144.4 118.0 98.86 99.73 78.09 78.03 (% DWL) 104.9 205.8 183.5 163.9 137.1 108.5 88.79 70.68 57.13 55.47 42.05 40.64 (Per CO2) -43.39 -134.2 -114.0 -96.93 -72.67 -45.54 -27.29 -10.76 0.663 0.152 11.80 11.44 (Per CO2) Net Cost Note: All units are in millions. Dollar figures are inflation adjusted to 2008 terms. NOx and HC are valued as in Muller and Mendelsohn’s (2009) USEPA scenario by the county where each vehicle received its Smog Check. The values vary substantially across counties, but a population-weighted average for the state values HC at $23897.10 per ton per year, and NOx at $1995.43 per ton per year. CO is valued at $802.88, as per the median value of Matthews and Lave (2000). Average 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ∆ CO2 ∆ Consumption Table 21: Cobenefits of a Gasoline Tax, No Heterogeneity, Muller and Mendelsohn (2009) USEPA Values 62 194.6 272.1 265.2 252.8 225.5 210.1 206.3 194.1 153.9 131.7 118.7 110.2 1.868 2.612 2.546 2.426 2.164 2.017 1.980 1.863 1.477 1.264 1.140 1.058 (Tons) (Gallons) 118.0 186.8 176.9 162.5 139.5 126.9 121.8 111.6 85.37 70.32 61.37 55.12 ($) 61.47 71.53 69.49 66.98 64.44 62.92 61.50 59.92 57.79 55.62 53.85 52.08 (Per CO2) DWL 12.93 21.49 21.66 18.30 15.41 13.49 12.38 11.72 9.037 7.306 6.126 5.320 (NOx $) 330.9 694.1 607.5 547.9 427.9 339.7 292.0 227.3 162.4 132.0 111.4 97.72 (HC $) 59.91 130.3 111.7 97.79 77.23 59.82 50.23 40.49 29.08 23.89 20.46 18.05 (CO $) 403.4 844.5 740.2 663.7 520.4 412.8 354.4 279.3 200.4 163.1 137.9 121.0 (Total $) Criteria Benefit 313.5 457.0 421.2 410.4 374.7 326.3 292.1 251.1 235.8 233.3 226.0 220.7 (% DWL) 197.6 326.9 292.7 274.9 241.4 205.3 179.6 150.5 136.3 129.8 121.7 114.9 (Per CO2) -136.2 -255.4 -223.2 -207.9 -177.0 -142.4 -118.1 -90.57 -78.48 -74.13 -67.86 -62.86 (Per CO2) Net Cost Note: All units are in millions. Dollar figures are inflation adjusted to 2008 terms. NOx and HC are valued as in Muller and Mendelsohn’s (2009) USEPA scenario by the county where each vehicle received its Smog Check. The values vary substantially across counties, but a population-weighted average for the state values HC at $23897.10 per ton per year, and NOx at $1995.43 per ton per year. CO is valued at $802.88, as per the median value of Matthews and Lave (2000). Average 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 ∆ CO2 ∆ Consumption Table 22: Cobenefits of a Gasoline Tax, Taking Heterogeneity into Account, Muller and Mendelsohn (2009) USEPA Values