U.S. Immigration Enforcement and Mexican Labor Markets (Figures)

Figures Figure (1) Variation in SC intensity across US states (a) 2009-2010 (b) 2011-2015 SC removals per 100 Matrículas SC removals per 100 Matrículas 1.48 − 8.98 0.41 − 1.48 0.03 − 0.41 0.00 − 0.03 0.00 − 0.00 23.8 − 100.0 17.0 − 23.8 10.2 − 17.0 7.6 − 10.2 5.5 − 7.6 1.7 − 5.5 Notes: These maps show the number of removals through Secure Communities (SC) per 100 matrı́cula consulares issued from 2006-2008 in each state. The map on the left shows removals from the the fiscal years 2009-2010 and the map on the right shows removals from the fiscal years 2011-2015. Figure (2) Variation in exposure to SC across Mexican municipalities (a) SC deportee share (2010) (b) SC deportee share (2015) Notes: These maps show the Secure Communities deportee share (see Section 4.1 for details on its construction) for the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities. The map on the left shows the SC deportee shares across Mexican municipalities for 2010 and the map on the left shows the SC deportee shares for 2015. 10 Tables Table (1) Return Migrant Shares, Deportee Shares, and Labor Market Outcomes Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) Employment rate-Women Employment rate-Men Log monthly income-Women Log monthly income-Men Observations (1) 1.087 (1.093) 2.365 (2.187) 0.901 (0.992) 0.172 (0.193) 0.273 (0.125) 0.772 (0.127) 3.234 (0.404) 3.479 (0.378) 2319 mean coefficients; sd in parentheses Notes: This table reports the means and standard deviations of several key variables in the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities. Table (2) Comparing Demographic Characteristics of Locals and Return Migrants 2010 2015 (1) (2) (3) (4) Locals Return migrants Locals Return migrants Age 37.769 34.860 38.492 37.183 (12.37) (10.02) (12.43) (10.53) Female 0.526 0.263 0.526 0.310 (0.499) (0.440) (0.499) (0.462) No HS 0.692 0.769 0.645 0.707 (0.462) (0.421) (0.479) (0.455) Single/never married 0.211 0.191 0.209 0.200 (0.408) (0.393) (0.407) (0.400) Observations 5874677 97977 5905067 47998 mean coefficients; sd in parentheses Notes: This table reports the means and standard deviations of several demographic characteristics by return migrant status. The samples in Columns 1 and 3 are composed of individuals that weren’t in the US five years prior between the ages of 18 and 64 that weren’t in school at the time of the survey in the 2010 Mexican Census and the 2015 Mexican Intercensal Survey respectively. The samples in Columns 2 and 4 are composed of individuals that were in the US five years prior between the ages of 18 and 64 that weren’t in school at the time of the survey in the 2010 Mexican Census and the 2015 Mexican Intercensal Survey respectively. Table (3) Occupational Choices of Locals and Return Migrants (ISCO Codes) Legislators, senior officials and managers Professionals Technicians and associate professionals Clerical support workers Service workers and shop and market sales Skilled agricultural and fishery workers Crafts and related trades workers Plant and machine operators and assemblers Elementary occupations Military Unknown occ. code Observations 2010 (1) (2) Locals Return migrants 0.039 0.021 (0.194) (0.142) 0.067 0.021 (0.249) (0.143) 0.060 0.023 (0.237) (0.150) 0.061 0.028 (0.238) (0.166) 0.223 0.203 (0.416) (0.403) 0.094 0.192 (0.292) (0.394) 0.177 0.223 (0.382) (0.416) 0.109 0.106 (0.311) (0.308) 0.159 0.174 (0.366) (0.379) 0.002 0.000 (0.0474) (0.0222) 0.009 0.008 (0.0958) (0.0887) 3372991 65277 2015 (3) Locals 0.028 (0.166) 0.085 (0.279) 0.062 (0.241) 0.064 (0.244) 0.214 (0.410) 0.089 (0.284) 0.163 (0.370) 0.120 (0.325) 0.163 (0.369) 0.002 (0.0452) 0.009 (0.0961) 3273616 (4) Return migrants 0.019 (0.137) 0.036 (0.186) 0.030 (0.171) 0.037 (0.189) 0.217 (0.412) 0.169 (0.375) 0.217 (0.412) 0.125 (0.331) 0.144 (0.351) 0.000 (0.0218) 0.005 (0.0731) 30016 mean coefficients; sd in parentheses Notes: This table reports the means and standard deviations of occupation indicators by return migrant status. The samples in Columns 1 and 3 are composed of individuals that weren’t in the US five years prior between the ages of 18 and 64 that weren’t in school at the time of the survey with non-missing ISCO codes in the 2010 Mexican Census and the 2015 Mexican Intercensal Survey respectively. The samples in Columns 2 and 4 are composed of individuals that were in the US five years prior between the ages of 18 and 64 that weren’t in school at the time of the survey with non-missing ISCO codes in the 2010 Mexican Census and the 2015 Mexican Intercensal Survey respectively. Table (4) Differential Selection of Return Migrants on Basic Demographic Characteristics by SC Deportation Exposure Age (1) 2010 Return migrant -2.514∗∗∗ (0.229) Return migrant × SC deportee share (2010) -0.296∗∗ (0.121) Return migrant × SC deportee share (2015) Y-mean Observations 37.760 5893900 (2) 2015 -1.194∗∗∗ (0.205) 0.484 (0.323) -0.456 (0.330) 38.514 5880540 Female (3) 2010 -0.248∗∗∗ (0.009) -0.022∗∗∗ (0.005) 0.523 5893900 (4) 2015 -0.190∗∗∗ (0.008) 0.076∗∗∗ (0.014) -0.106∗∗∗ (0.014) 0.525 5880540 No HS (5) 2010 0.013 (0.010) 0.011∗∗ (0.005) 0.694 5893900 (6) 2015 0.008 (0.014) -0.024 (0.015) 0.040∗∗∗ (0.015) 0.646 5880540 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 2. The dependent variable in Columns 1 and 2 is the individual’s age. The dependent variable in Columns 3 and 4 is an indicator for whether the individual is a woman. The dependent variable in Columns 5 and 6 is an indicator for whether the individual does not have a high school degree. The samples in the odd numbered columns are individuals between 18 and 64 that weren’t in school at the time of the survey in the 2010 Mexican Census. The samples in the even numbered columns are individuals between 18 and 64 that weren’t in school at the time of the survey in the 2015 Mexican Intercensal survey. Observations are weighted by the person weights (perwt in IPUMS). Standard errors are clustered at the municipality level. Table (5) Differential Selection of Return Migrants on Employment and Monthly Income by SC Deportation Exposure Employed (1) (2) 2010 2015 ∗∗∗ Return migrant -0.068 -0.064∗∗∗ (0.006) (0.005) Return migrant × SC deportee share (2010) 0.005 -0.032∗∗∗ (0.003) (0.012) Return migrant × SC deportee share (2015) 0.031∗∗ (0.012) Y-mean 0.631 0.620 Observations 5893900 5880540 Ln(income) (3) (4) 2010 2015 ∗∗∗ 0.093 0.113∗∗∗ (0.021) (0.030) ∗∗∗ -0.036 0.024 (0.011) (0.027) -0.078∗∗∗ (0.028) 3.869 3.805 2601362 2728046 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 2 with a cubic polynomial in age and gender×education and gender×marital status fixed effects. The dependent variable in Columns 1 and 2 is an indicator for employment. The dependent variable in Columns 3 and 4 is the natural log of real monthly income from working. The samples in Columns 1 and 2 are individuals between the ages of 18 and 64 that weren’t in school at the time of the survey in the 2010 Mexican Census and 2015 Mexican Intercensal survey respectively . The samples in Columns 3 and 4 are individuals between the ages of 18 and 64 that weren’t in school at the time of the survey and who reported monthly income from working in the 2010 Mexican Census and 2015 Mexican Intercensal survey respectively. Observations are weighted by the person weights (perwt in IPUMS). Standard errors are clustered at the municipality level. Table (6) Most Serious Criminal Convictions of SC Deportees (1) 2009-2010 Level 1-Aggravated felonies 0.266 (2) 2011-2015 0.324 Level 2-Other felonies 0.0857 0.121 Level 3-Misdemeanors 0.401 0.424 No conviction 0.247 0.130 Total SC removals 51,480 292,713 Notes: This table reports the share of deportees through Secure Communities (SC) by the seriousness level of their most serious criminal conviction. Column 1 reports these shares for deportations in the years 2009-2010 and Column 2 reports these shares for deportation in the years 2011-2015. Table (7) First Stage Relationships Between Current and Lagged Return Migrant and Deportee Shares (1) Return migrant share (2015) SC deportee share (2015) 0.367∗∗∗ (0.123) SC deportee share (2010) -0.027 (0.135) Y-mean 1.087 Observations 2319 Sanderson-Windmeijer F-stat 11.088 Kleibergen-Paap rk LM stat 7.334 Kleibergen-Paap rk LM stat p-value 0.007 (2) Return migrant share (2010) 0.028 (0.161) 0.633∗∗∗ (0.123) 2.365 2319 5.321 7.334 0.007 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 4. The dependent variables are the return migrant share in 2015 and the return migrant share in 2010 in Columns 1 and 2 respectively. The sample in both columns is composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities. Table (8) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Shares on Employment Dependent Variable: change in employment rate SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Observations All (1) -0.010∗ (0.005) 0.009∗ (0.005) -0.038 0.548 2319 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.009 -0.010 -0.009 -0.019∗ (0.009) (0.007) (0.006) (0.009) 0.008 0.004 0.007 0.007 (0.007) (0.006) (0.005) (0.008) -0.031 -0.058 -0.059 -0.036 0.258 0.521 0.822 0.854 2319 2249 2319 2257 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 3. The dependent variable in each column is the change in the mean employment indicator for the “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age population of the gender-education group. Column 1 shows results for the entire local working age population. Columns 2, 3, 4, and 5 show results for local working age women without a high school degree, women with a high school degree or more, men without a high school degree, and men with a high school degree or more respectively. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing mean employment indicators for the corresponding gender-education group. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (9) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Shares on Log Monthly Income Dependent Variable: change in ln(income) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Observations All (1) -0.035∗∗∗ (0.007) 0.027∗∗∗ (0.005) -0.031 3.432 2317 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.023∗∗ 0.010 -0.060∗∗∗ 0.023 (0.009) (0.015) (0.019) (0.039) 0.026∗∗ 0.001 0.048∗∗∗ -0.008 (0.012) (0.018) (0.015) (0.028) 0.010 -0.096 -0.072 -0.155 2.970 3.805 3.453 3.972 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 3. The dependent variable in each column is the mean log monthly income from working for the “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age population of the gender-education group. Column 1 shows results for the entire local working age population. Columns 2, 3, 4, and 5 show results for local working age women without a high school degree, women with a high school degree or more, men without a high school degree, and men with a high school degree or more respectively. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing mean log monthly income from working for the corresponding gender-education group. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (10) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Shares on Domestic Out-Migration Dependent Variable: out-migration rate All Women Men (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) All No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus SC deportee share (2015) 0.162 0.483 -0.133 -0.015 -0.109 (0.184) (0.288) (0.688) (0.202) (0.466) SC deportee share (2010) 0.175 -0.083 0.519 0.377∗ 0.524 (0.182) (0.327) (0.692) (0.196) (0.322) Y-mean 4.438 3.852 8.006 3.390 6.939 Observations 2319 2319 2314 2319 2310 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 4. The dependent variable in each column is the out-migration rate of the “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age population of the gender-education group. Column 1 shows results for the entire local working age population. Columns 2, 3, 4, and 5 show results for local working age women without a high school degree, women with a high school degree or more, men without a high school degree, and men with a high school degree or more respectively. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing out-migration rates for the corresponding gender-education group. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (11) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Shares on Domestic In-Migration Dependent Variable: in-migration rate All Women Men (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) All No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus SC deportee share (2015) -0.620 -0.660 -2.506 -0.544 -0.791 (0.434) (0.424) (1.690) (0.416) (0.756) SC deportee share (2010) 0.382 0.451∗ 1.444 0.263 1.206 (0.341) (0.259) (1.270) (0.322) (1.163) Y-mean 4.872 4.218 9.763 3.925 8.449 Observations 2319 2319 2314 2319 2310 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 4. The dependent variable in each column is the in-migration rate of the “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age population of the gender-education group. Column 1 shows results for the entire local working age population. Columns 2, 3, 4, and 5 show results for local working age women without a high school degree, women with a high school degree or more, men without a high school degree, and men with a high school degree or more respectively. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing in-migration rates for the corresponding gender-education group. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (12) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Shares on Domestic Net Out-Migration Dependent Variable: net out-migration rate All Women (1) (2) (3) All No HS HS Plus SC deportee share (2015) 0.810∗ 1.129∗∗∗ 2.372 (0.398) (0.409) (1.429) SC deportee share (2010) -0.187 -0.475 -0.915 (0.292) (0.367) (0.993) Y-mean -0.434 -0.367 -1.757 Observations 2319 2319 2314 Men (4) (5) No HS HS Plus 0.554 0.755 (0.421) (1.194) 0.101 -0.745 (0.332) (1.357) -0.535 -1.510 2319 2310 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 4. The dependent variable in each column is the net out-migration rate of the “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age population of the gender-education group. Column 1 shows results for the entire local working age population. Columns 2, 3, 4, and 5 show results for local working age women without a high school degree, women with a high school degree or more, men without a high school degree, and men with a high school degree or more respectively. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing net out-migration rates for the corresponding gender-education group. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (13) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Shares on Emigration and Remittances (1) Emigration SC deportee share (2015) 7.980∗∗∗ (1.449) SC deportee share (2010) -0.682 (1.297) Y-mean 8.325 ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010 Observations 2319 (2) ∆ Share receive remit. 2.239∗∗∗ (0.291) -0.734∗∗ (0.352) 0.754 10.611 2319 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 4 in Column 1 and Equation 3 in Column 2. The dependent variable in Column 1 is the proxy for the emigration flow rate and in Column 2 is the change in the share of households receiving remittances. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (14) Reduced Form Effects on Municipal Homicide Rates (1) ∆Hom. rate SC deportee share (2015) -0.002 (0.024) SC deportee share (2010) -0.015 (0.023) Y-mean -0.071 Hom. rate (2010) 0.232 Observations 2319 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 3. The dependent variable is the homicide rate (number of homicides per 1,000 people). The sample is composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (15) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Employment Dependent Variable: change in employment rate Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations All (1) All 0.008∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.000 (0.001) -0.026 (0.024) 0.013 (0.012) -0.038 0.548 1.093 2.187 2319 Women (2) (3) No HS HS Plus OLS 0.010∗∗∗ 0.009∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.003) ∗∗∗ -0.004 -0.008∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.002) IV -0.025 -0.028 (0.033) (0.021) 0.012 0.002 (0.015) (0.009) -0.031 -0.058 0.258 0.521 1.093 1.049 2.187 2.183 2319 2249 Men (4) (5) No HS HS Plus 0.007∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.003∗∗ (0.001) -0.000 (0.006) 0.002 (0.003) -0.026 (0.018) 0.010 (0.009) -0.059 0.822 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.051 (0.035) 0.008 (0.015) -0.036 0.854 1.052 2.187 2257 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 3. The top panel shows results using OLS. The bottom panel shows results using IV where the return migrant shares are instrumented by the SC deportee shares. The dependent variable in each column is the change in the mean employment indicator for the “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age population of the gender-education group. Column 1 shows results for the entire local working age population. Columns 2, 3, 4, and 5 show results for local working age women without a high school degree, women with a high school degree or more, men without a high school degree, and men with a high school degree or more respectively. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing mean employment indicators for the corresponding gender-education group. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (16) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Income Dependent Variable: change in ln(income) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations All (1) All -0.017∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.004∗∗ (0.002) -0.097∗∗ (0.041) 0.039∗ (0.022) -0.031 3.432 1.093 2.187 2317 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus OLS ∗∗ -0.010 -0.013∗ -0.018∗∗∗ 0.012 (0.004) (0.007) (0.002) (0.011) 0.009∗ 0.008∗∗∗ 0.002 0.001 (0.005) (0.003) (0.002) (0.003) IV -0.065 0.033 -0.169 0.058 (0.040) (0.037) (0.111) (0.100) 0.039 0.007 0.069 -0.008 (0.030) (0.026) (0.056) (0.038) 0.010 -0.096 -0.072 -0.155 2.970 3.805 3.453 3.972 1.076 1.027 1.093 1.032 2.185 2.174 2.188 2.191 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 3. The top panel shows results using OLS. The bottom panel shows results using IV where the return migrant shares are instrumented by the SC deportee shares. The dependent variable in each column is the mean log monthly income from working for the “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age population of the gender-education group. Column 1 shows results for the entire local working age population. Columns 2, 3, 4, and 5 show results for local working age women without a high school degree, women with a high school degree or more, men without a high school degree, and men with a high school degree or more respectively. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing mean log monthly income from working for the corresponding gender-education group. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (17) Summary Statistics: Access to Capital and Banking Bank branches per 10,000-2003 Any bank branches-2003 Log value of capital stock-2003 Log value of machinery - 2003 Log value of plants-2003 Log value of capital accumulation-2003 Observations (1) 0.709 (1.743) 0.392 (0.488) 3.460 (2.437) 2.320 (2.425) 2.874 (2.171) 1.331 (1.793) 2319 mean coefficients; sd in parentheses Notes: This table reports the means and standard deviations of variables related to access to capital and banking in the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities. Table (18) Summary Statistics: Factor Mobility (1) Road density (km/km sq.) 0.216 (0.201) Fed. road density (km/km sq.) 0.065 (0.112) State road density (km/km sq.) 0.117 (0.124) Mun. road density (km/km sq.) 0.029 (0.0640) Out-mig. rate 2000 5.547 (5.170) In-mig. rate 2000 4.659 (5.400) Observations 2319 mean coefficients; sd in parentheses Notes: This table reports the means and standard deviations of variables related to factor mobility in the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities. Table (19) Banking and the Elasticity of Men’s Log Monthly Income SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) SC deportee share (2010) Banking ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Banking-mean Banking-sd Observations (1) Bank Branches per Capita -0.072∗∗∗ (0.021) × Banking 0.010∗∗∗ (0.003) 0.058∗∗∗ (0.017) × Banking -0.009∗∗∗ (0.002) -0.003 (0.002) -0.071 3.432 0.709 1.744 2317 (2) Any Bank Branches -0.080∗∗∗ (0.024) 0.051∗ (0.025) 0.065∗∗∗ (0.019) -0.049∗ (0.025) -0.007 (0.008) -0.071 3.432 0.392 0.488 2317 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 3. The dependent variable in each column is the mean log monthly income from working for “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age men. Each column includes a control for a measure of access to banking (bank branches per 10,000 people in Column 1 and an indicator for whether there were any branches in Column 2) as well as interactions between the SC deportee shares and this measure. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing mean log monthly incomes from working for men and non-missing measures of access to banking. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (20) Access to Capital and the Elasticity of Men’s Log Monthly Income SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2015) × Capital SC deportee share (2010) SC deportee share (2010) × Capital Capital ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Capital-mean Capital-sd Observations (1) Stock -0.093∗∗∗ (0.027) 0.013∗ (0.007) 0.084∗∗∗ (0.021) -0.015∗∗ (0.006) 0.003 (0.004) -0.071 3.432 3.461 2.436 2317 (2) (3) Machinery Plants -0.076∗∗∗ -0.090∗∗∗ (0.024) (0.025) 0.011 0.014∗∗ (0.007) (0.007) ∗∗∗ 0.065 0.080∗∗∗ (0.018) (0.019) ∗ -0.012 -0.015∗∗ (0.006) (0.006) 0.002 0.003 (0.003) (0.005) -0.071 -0.071 3.432 3.432 2.321 2.874 2.425 2.171 2317 2317 (4) Accum. -0.072∗∗∗ (0.021) 0.015∗ (0.007) 0.061∗∗∗ (0.016) -0.018∗∗ (0.006) 0.003 (0.004) -0.071 3.432 1.331 1.793 2317 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 3. The dependent variable in each column is the mean log monthly income from working for “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age men. Each column includes a control for a measure of the capital stock/access to capital (the natural log of the value of the capital stock in Column 1, the natural log of the value of machinery in Column 2, the natural log of the value of plants in Column 3, and the natural log of the absolute value of capital accumulation in Column 4) as well as interactions between the SC deportee shares and this measure. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing mean log monthly incomes from working for men and non-missing measures of the capital stock/access to capital. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (21) Road Density and the Elasticity of Men’s Log Monthly Income SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) SC deportee share (2010) Density ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Density-mean Density-sd Observations (1) All Roads -0.086∗∗ (0.033) × Density 0.159 (0.105) 0.074∗∗ (0.029) × Density -0.171 (0.103) -0.019 (0.033) -0.071 3.432 0.216 0.201 2317 (2) Fed. Roads -0.076∗∗∗ (0.023) 0.391∗∗∗ (0.104) 0.063∗∗∗ (0.019) -0.388∗∗∗ (0.109) 0.009 (0.019) -0.071 3.432 0.065 0.112 2317 (3) State Roads -0.082∗∗ (0.033) 0.177 (0.154) 0.072∗∗ (0.028) -0.221 (0.137) -0.051 (0.071) -0.071 3.432 0.117 0.124 2317 (4) Mun. Roads -0.067∗∗∗ (0.023) 0.047 (0.254) 0.053∗∗∗ (0.018) -0.016 (0.211) -0.008 (0.022) -0.071 3.432 0.029 0.064 2317 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation3. The dependent variable in each column is the mean log monthly income from working for “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age men. Each column includes a control for road density (km/km sq.) by road type (all roads in Column 1, roads administered by the federal government in Column 2, roads administered by the state government in Column 3, and roads administered by the municipal government in Column 4) as well as interactions between the SC deportee shares and the road density. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing mean log monthly incomes from working for men and non-missing measures of road density. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. Table (22) Labor Mobility and the Elasticity of Men’s Log Monthly Income SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) SC deportee share (2010) Mobility ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Mig.-mean Mig.-sd Observations (1) Out-mig. rate 2000 -0.101∗∗∗ (0.023) × Mobility 0.007∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.078∗∗∗ (0.019) × Mobility -0.005∗∗ (0.002) -0.002 (0.001) -0.071 3.432 5.503 4.784 2317 (2) In-mig. rate 2000 -0.084∗∗∗ (0.028) 0.005∗ (0.003) 0.070∗∗∗ (0.024) -0.005∗ (0.003) -0.001∗ (0.000) -0.071 3.432 4.658 5.401 2317 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 3. The dependent variable in each column is the mean log monthly income from working for “local” (i.e. non-return migrant) working age men. Each column includes a control for a measure of historic labor mobility (the out-migration rate in 2000 in Column 1 and the in-migration rate in 2000 in Column 2) as well as interactions between the SC deportee shares and this measure. The samples in each column are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with non-missing mean log monthly incomes from working for men and non-missing measures of historic labor mobility. Standard errors are clustered at the Mexican state level. 11 11.1 Appendix Additional tables Table (A1) Correlation Between Log Monthly Income from Working and Homicide Rates in 2000 and Eventual SC Deportation Exposure (1) ln(inc.) 2000 SC deportee share (2015) -0.000 (0.017) SC deportee share (2010) Y-mean Observations 2.960 2318 (2) ln(inc.) 0.001 (0.018) 2.960 2318 (3) (4) 2000 hom. rate 2000 0.003 (0.016) 0.001 (0.016) 0.161 0.161 2319 2319 Notes: This table shows results from regressing mean log monthly income from working in 2000 (Columns 1 and 2) and homicide rate in 2000 (Columns 3 and 4) on the SC deportee shares in 2015 and 2010. Regressions include Mexican state fixed effects. The samples are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with nonmissing values for these two outcome variables in 2000. Table (A2) First Stage Relationships Between Current and Lagged Return Migrant and Deportee Shares-Include Lagged Changes in Main Outcome Variables (1) Emp. SC deportee share (2015) 0.362∗∗∗ (0.122) SC deportee share (2010) -0.025 (0.134) 1.088 2318 180.246 (2) (3) (4) (5) Ln(Inc.) Hom. Out-Mig. In-Mig. Return Migrant Share (2015) 0.358∗∗∗ 0.371∗∗∗ 0.368∗∗∗ 0.369∗∗∗ (0.123) (0.124) (0.124) (0.123) (6) Net-Mig. (7) Remit. 0.369∗∗∗ (0.124) 0.372∗∗∗ (0.116) -0.028 (0.135) 1.087 2319 191.251 -0.038 (0.128) 1.087 2319 209.300 0.041 (0.162) 0.038 (0.171) 0.629∗∗∗ (0.121) 2.365 2319 186.965 0.611∗∗∗ (0.130) 2.365 2319 279.500 SC deportee share (2015) 0.001 (0.163) -0.022 -0.029 -0.027 -0.028 (0.134) (0.135) (0.135) (0.135) 1.088 1.087 1.087 1.087 2318 2319 2319 2319 183.879 147.816 197.817 141.874 Return Migrant Share (2010) 0.003 0.032 0.035 0.036 (0.163) (0.160) (0.160) (0.162) SC deportee share (2010) 0.642∗∗∗ (0.125) 2.366 2318 164.775 0.646∗∗∗ (0.123) 2.366 2318 275.498 Y-mean Observations F-stat Y-mean Observations F-stat 0.630∗∗∗ (0.123) 2.365 2319 198.358 0.636∗∗∗ (0.121) 2.365 2319 307.984 0.628∗∗∗ (0.123) 2.365 2319 200.681 Standard errors in parentheses ∗ p < 0.10, ∗∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗∗ p < 0.01 Notes: This table shows results from estimating Equation 4. Each column additionally includes changes in outcome variables from 2000-2010 (the change in the mean employment indicator for the entire local working age population in Column 1, the change in the mean log monthly income from working for the entire local working age population in Column 2, the change in the homicide rate in Column 3, and the change in the share of households receiving remittances in Column 7) or migration flows from 2005-2010 (domestic out-migration, in-migration, and net out-migration in Column 4,5, and 6). The dependent variable in the top panel is the return migrant share in 2015 and in the bottom panel is the return migrant share in 2010. The samples are composed of the baseline sample of Mexican municipalities with nonmissing changes in the outcome variables/migration flows. Table (A3) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Employment-Weight by Lagged Population Size All (1) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Observations -0.019∗∗∗ (0.006) 0.017∗∗ (0.006) -0.011 0.548 2319 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.010 -0.023∗ -0.029∗∗∗ -0.017∗ (0.007) (0.013) (0.009) (0.009) ∗ ∗∗∗ 0.012 0.009 0.024 0.010 (0.006) (0.010) (0.009) (0.008) -0.012 -0.023 -0.023 -0.010 0.258 0.521 0.822 0.854 2319 2249 2319 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 8 but instead shows results when observations are weighted by the 2010 population size of the gender-education group. See the notes to Table 8 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A4) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Log Monthly Income-Weight by Lagged Population Size All (1) Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus SC deportee share (2015) -0.031∗ -0.047∗∗ 0.033 -0.034∗∗ -0.029 (0.016) (0.019) (0.037) (0.017) (0.028) SC deportee share (2010) 0.025∗ 0.042∗∗ -0.020 0.031∗∗ 0.044∗∗ (0.015) (0.016) (0.024) (0.015) (0.022) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) -0.060 -0.017 -0.090 -0.081 -0.165 Y-mean (2010) 3.432 2.970 3.805 3.453 3.972 Observations 2317 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 9 but instead shows results when observations are weighted by the 2010 population size of the gender-education group. See the notes to Table 9 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A5) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Employment-Weight by Lagged Population Size Dependent Variable: change in employment rate Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations All (1) All Women (2) No HS 0.009∗∗∗ (0.003) -0.001 (0.001) 0.012∗∗ (0.005) -0.006∗∗∗ (0.002) -0.057∗∗∗ (0.021) 0.024∗∗ (0.011) -0.011 0.548 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.029 (0.020) 0.016∗∗ (0.008) -0.012 0.258 1.093 2.187 2319 (3) HS Plus OLS 0.014∗∗∗ (0.004) -0.007∗∗∗ (0.002) IV -0.100 (0.071) 0.011 (0.022) -0.023 0.521 1.049 2.183 2249 Men (4) No HS (5) HS Plus 0.004 (0.003) 0.004∗ (0.002) 0.005 (0.003) -0.002 (0.002) -0.083∗∗∗ (0.031) 0.033∗∗ (0.015) -0.023 0.822 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.072 (0.046) 0.015 (0.018) -0.010 0.854 1.052 2.187 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 15 but instead shows results when observations are weighted by the 2010 population size of the gender-education group. See the notes to Table 15 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A6) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Log Monthly Income-Weight by Lagged Population Size Dependent Variable: change in ln(income) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations All (1) All Women (2) No HS -0.034∗∗∗ (0.007) 0.014∗∗ (0.005) -0.041∗∗∗ (0.008) 0.018∗∗∗ (0.005) -0.100∗ (0.054) 0.034 (0.022) -0.060 3.432 1.093 2.187 2317 -0.151∗∗ (0.063) 0.055∗∗ (0.023) -0.017 2.970 1.076 2.185 2300 (3) HS Plus OLS -0.015 (0.010) 0.001 (0.006) IV 0.140 (0.186) -0.027 (0.040) -0.090 3.805 1.027 2.174 2167 Men (4) No HS (5) HS Plus -0.037∗∗∗ (0.009) 0.015∗∗ (0.006) -0.018 (0.011) 0.007 (0.006) -0.106∗∗ (0.051) 0.043∗ (0.022) -0.081 3.453 1.093 2.188 2316 -0.077 (0.130) 0.063∗∗ (0.032) -0.165 3.972 1.032 2.191 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 16 but instead shows results when observations are weighted by the 2010 population size of the gender-education group. See the notes to Table 16 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A7) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Employment- Lagged Dependent Variable Model All (1) -0.015∗∗ (0.007) SC deportee share (2010) 0.010∗ (0.006) Y-mean 0.509 Observations 2319 SC deportee share (2015) Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.013 -0.009 -0.016∗∗ -0.019∗∗ (0.009) (0.006) (0.006) (0.008) 0.009 0.004 0.010∗ 0.007 (0.007) (0.004) (0.005) (0.006) 0.227 0.463 0.762 0.818 2319 2249 2319 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 8 but instead shows results when the dependent variables are in levels as opposed to changes and regressions include controls for the 2010 and 2000 levels of the corresponding outcome. See the notes to Table 8 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A8) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Log Monthly Income-Lagged Dependent Variable Model All (1) -0.031∗∗∗ (0.009) SC deportee share (2010) 0.034∗∗∗ (0.011) Y-mean 3.400 Observations 2317 SC deportee share (2015) Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.029 0.013 -0.057∗∗ 0.031 (0.017) (0.014) (0.021) (0.027) 0.038 -0.003 0.052∗∗ -0.008 (0.023) (0.017) (0.020) (0.019) 2.980 3.710 3.381 3.817 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 9 but instead shows results when the dependent variables are in levels as opposed to changes and regressions include controls for the 2010 and 2000 levels of the corresponding outcome. See the notes to Table 9 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A9) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Employment-Lagged Dependent Variable Model All (1) All Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Y-mean Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations 0.007∗∗∗ (0.002) -0.001 (0.001) -0.057 (0.036) 0.016 (0.019) 0.509 1.093 2.187 2319 Women (2) (3) No HS HS Plus OLS 0.009∗∗∗ 0.008∗∗∗ (0.002) (0.002) ∗∗∗ -0.003 -0.005∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.002) IV -0.043 -0.017 (0.038) (0.019) 0.013 0.013 (0.018) (0.011) 0.227 0.463 1.093 1.049 2.187 2.183 2319 2249 Men (4) (5) No HS HS Plus 0.006∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.002 (0.001) -0.003 (0.008) 0.003 (0.003) -0.080∗∗ (0.036) 0.019 (0.021) 0.762 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.061 (0.039) 0.016 (0.022) 0.818 1.052 2.187 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 15 but instead shows results when the dependent variables are in levels as opposed to changes and regressions include controls for the 2010 and 2000 levels of the corresponding outcome. See the notes to Table 15 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A10) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Log Monthly Income-Lagged Dependent Variable Model All (1) All Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Y-mean Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations -0.002 (0.004) 0.004∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.053 (0.054) 0.043 (0.031) 3.400 1.093 2.187 2317 Women (2) (3) No HS HS Plus OLS -0.001 -0.004 (0.005) (0.008) 0.007 0.004 (0.004) (0.003) IV -0.041 0.161 (0.062) (0.105) 0.034 -0.043 (0.038) (0.067) 2.980 3.710 1.076 1.027 2.185 2.174 2300 2167 Men (4) No HS (5) HS Plus -0.006∗ (0.003) 0.004∗∗ (0.002) 0.023∗∗ (0.010) 0.002 (0.002) -0.115 (0.097) 0.064 (0.051) 3.381 1.093 2.188 2316 -0.055 (0.078) 0.060 (0.050) 3.817 1.032 2.191 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 16 but instead shows results when the dependent variables are in levels as opposed to changes and regressions include controls for the 2010 and 2000 levels of the corresponding outcome. See the notes to Table 16 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A11) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Employment-Exclude Deportations from Arizona All (1) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Observations -0.012∗∗ (0.004) 0.011∗∗∗ (0.003) -0.038 0.548 2319 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.008 -0.009 -0.014 -0.023∗∗ (0.009) (0.007) (0.009) (0.011) 0.007 0.003 0.013 0.015 (0.007) (0.006) (0.008) (0.011) -0.031 -0.058 -0.059 -0.036 0.258 0.521 0.822 0.854 2319 2249 2319 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 8 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from Arizona. See the notes to Table 8 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A12) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Log Monthly Income-Exclude Deportations from Arizona All (1) -0.030∗∗∗ (0.009) SC deportee share (2010) 0.023∗∗∗ (0.008) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) -0.031 Y-mean (2010) 3.432 Observations 2317 SC deportee share (2015) Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.027∗∗ 0.003 -0.054∗∗ 0.023 (0.013) (0.015) (0.024) (0.034) 0.029∗∗ -0.001 0.042∗ -0.013 (0.012) (0.011) (0.020) (0.027) 0.010 -0.096 -0.072 -0.155 2.970 3.805 3.453 3.972 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 9 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from Arizona. See the notes to Table 9 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A13) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Employment-Exclude Deportations from Arizona Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations All (1) All Women (2) No HS 0.008∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.000 (0.001) 0.010∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.004∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.033 (0.024) 0.018 (0.013) -0.038 0.548 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.023 (0.031) 0.011 (0.013) -0.031 0.258 1.093 2.187 2319 (3) HS Plus OLS 0.009∗∗∗ (0.003) -0.008∗∗∗ (0.002) OLS -0.014 (0.018) -0.016 (0.019) -0.058 0.521 1.049 2.183 2249 Men (4) No HS (5) HS Plus 0.007∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.003∗∗ (0.001) -0.000 (0.006) 0.002 (0.003) -0.038∗ (0.021) 0.019∗ (0.012) -0.059 0.822 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.048 (0.039) 0.008 (0.022) -0.036 0.854 1.052 2.187 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 15 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from Arizona. See the notes to Table 15 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A14) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Log Monthly Income-Exclude Deportations from Arizona All (1) All Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations -0.017∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.004∗∗ (0.002) -0.078 (0.051) 0.029 (0.029) -0.031 3.432 1.093 2.187 2317 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus OLS ∗∗ -0.010 -0.013∗ -0.018∗∗∗ 0.012 (0.004) (0.007) (0.002) (0.011) 0.009∗ 0.008∗∗∗ 0.002 0.001 (0.005) (0.003) (0.002) (0.003) IV -0.080 0.007 -0.142 0.048 (0.068) (0.031) (0.122) (0.084) 0.062 0.007 0.054 -0.004 (0.063) (0.037) (0.062) (0.033) 0.010 -0.096 -0.072 -0.155 2.970 3.805 3.453 3.972 1.076 1.027 1.093 1.032 2.185 2.174 2.188 2.191 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 16 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from Arizona. See the notes to Table 16 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A15) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Employment-Exclude Deportations from Texas All (1) -0.008∗∗∗ (0.003) SC deportee share (2010) 0.008∗∗∗ (0.003) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) -0.038 Y-mean (2010) 0.548 Observations 2319 SC deportee share (2015) Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.011∗ -0.008 -0.007 -0.020∗∗∗ (0.006) (0.007) (0.005) (0.005) 0.009∗ 0.003 0.007∗ 0.012∗∗ (0.005) (0.006) (0.004) (0.005) -0.031 -0.058 -0.059 -0.036 0.258 0.521 0.822 0.854 2319 2249 2319 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 8 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from Texas. See the notes to Table 8 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A16) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Log Monthly Income-Exclude Deportations from Texas All (1) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Observations -0.032∗∗∗ (0.007) 0.028∗∗∗ (0.005) -0.031 3.432 2317 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.012 -0.028∗∗ -0.059∗∗∗ 0.024 (0.008) (0.013) (0.012) (0.029) 0.025∗∗ 0.023∗ 0.049∗∗∗ -0.012 (0.010) (0.012) (0.011) (0.022) 0.010 -0.096 -0.072 -0.155 2.970 3.805 3.453 3.972 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 9 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from Texas. See the notes to Table 9 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A17) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Employment-Exclude Deportations from Texas Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations All (1) All Women (2) No HS 0.008∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.000 (0.001) 0.010∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.004∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.028 (0.022) 0.015 (0.012) -0.038 0.548 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.034 (0.034) 0.015 (0.017) -0.031 0.258 1.093 2.187 2319 (3) HS Plus OLS 0.009∗∗∗ (0.003) -0.008∗∗∗ (0.002) IV -0.018 (0.021) -0.007 (0.018) -0.058 0.521 1.049 2.183 2249 Men (4) No HS (5) HS Plus 0.007∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.003∗∗ (0.001) -0.000 (0.006) 0.002 (0.003) -0.023∗ (0.013) 0.012 (0.008) -0.059 0.822 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.049∗∗ (0.023) 0.008 (0.014) -0.036 0.854 1.052 2.187 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 15 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from Texas. See the notes to Table 15 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A18) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Log Monthly Income-Exclude Deportations from Texas All (1) All Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations -0.017∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.004∗∗ (0.002) -0.099∗∗ (0.049) 0.046 (0.031) -0.031 3.432 1.093 2.187 2317 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus OLS ∗∗ -0.010 -0.013∗ -0.018∗∗∗ 0.012 (0.004) (0.007) (0.002) (0.011) 0.009∗ 0.008∗∗∗ 0.002 0.001 (0.005) (0.003) (0.002) (0.003) IV -0.050 -0.072 -0.177 0.053 (0.052) (0.049) (0.118) (0.087) 0.073 0.023 0.077 -0.002 (0.065) (0.024) (0.064) (0.029) 0.010 -0.096 -0.072 -0.155 2.970 3.805 3.453 3.972 1.076 1.027 1.093 1.032 2.185 2.174 2.188 2.191 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 16 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from Texas. See the notes to Table 16 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A19) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Employment-Exclude Deportations from California All (1) -0.007∗ (0.004) SC deportee share (2010) 0.005∗∗ (0.002) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) -0.038 Y-mean (2010) 0.548 Observations 2319 SC deportee share (2015) Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.006 -0.010∗ -0.008∗∗ -0.013∗∗ (0.006) (0.005) (0.003) (0.005) 0.005 0.005 0.004∗ 0.007 (0.004) (0.006) (0.003) (0.005) -0.031 -0.058 -0.059 -0.036 0.258 0.521 0.822 0.854 2319 2249 2319 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 8 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from California. See the notes to Table 8 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A20) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Log Monthly Income-Exclude Deportations from California All (1) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Observations -0.023∗∗∗ (0.005) 0.023∗∗∗ (0.004) -0.031 3.432 2317 Women (2) (3) No HS HS Plus -0.026∗∗ -0.000 (0.011) (0.015) 0.028∗∗ 0.017 (0.013) (0.011) 0.010 -0.096 2.970 3.805 2300 2167 Men (4) No HS -0.041∗∗∗ (0.012) 0.038∗∗∗ (0.008) -0.072 3.453 2316 (5) HS Plus 0.008 (0.018) -0.001 (0.015) -0.155 3.972 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 9 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from California. See the notes to Table 9 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A21) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Employment-Exclude Deportations from California Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations All (1) All Women (2) No HS 0.008∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.000 (0.001) 0.010∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.004∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.031 (0.028) 0.007 (0.009) -0.038 0.548 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.029 (0.041) 0.009 (0.011) -0.031 0.258 1.093 2.187 2319 (3) HS Plus OLS 0.009∗∗∗ (0.003) -0.008∗∗∗ (0.002) IV -0.056∗ (0.034) 0.002 (0.016) -0.058 0.521 1.049 2.183 2249 Men (4) No HS (5) HS Plus 0.007∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.003∗∗ (0.001) -0.000 (0.006) 0.002 (0.003) -0.032∗ (0.019) 0.003 (0.008) -0.059 0.822 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.050∗ (0.030) 0.007 (0.012) -0.036 0.854 1.052 2.187 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 15 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from California. See the notes to Table 15 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A22) Estimated Effects of Return Migration on Log Monthly Income-Exclude Deportations from California All (1) All Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations -0.017∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.004∗∗ (0.002) -0.118∗ (0.062) 0.045∗ (0.024) -0.031 3.432 1.093 2.187 2317 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus OLS ∗∗ -0.010 -0.013∗ -0.018∗∗∗ 0.012 (0.004) (0.007) (0.002) (0.011) 0.009∗ 0.008∗∗∗ 0.002 0.001 (0.005) (0.003) (0.002) (0.003) IV -0.193 0.024 -0.202 0.023 (0.263) (0.089) (0.153) (0.071) 0.059 0.063∗ 0.071 0.006 (0.065) (0.035) (0.049) (0.024) 0.010 -0.096 -0.072 -0.155 2.970 3.805 3.453 3.972 1.076 1.027 1.093 1.032 2.185 2.174 2.188 2.191 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 16 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built excluding deportations from California. See the notes to Table 16 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A23) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Employment-W/O Control for Change in Outcome Variable (2000-2010) All (1) SC deportee share (2015) SC deportee share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Observations -0.015∗∗∗ (0.004) 0.010∗∗∗ (0.004) -0.038 0.548 2319 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.013 -0.005 -0.018∗∗ -0.025∗∗ (0.009) (0.006) (0.007) (0.010) 0.009 0.004 0.010∗∗ 0.015 (0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.010) -0.031 -0.060 -0.059 -0.037 0.258 0.519 0.822 0.853 2319 2311 2319 2307 Notes: This table is similar to Table 8 but instead shows results when regressions do not control for the change in the outcome variable from 2000-2010. See the notes to Table 8 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A24) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Log Monthly Income-W/O Control for Change in Outcome Variable (2000-2010) All (1) Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus SC deportee share (2015) -0.010 -0.007 0.103 -0.033∗∗∗ -0.013 (0.007) (0.011) (0.064) (0.012) (0.012) SC deportee share (2010) 0.014∗∗ 0.008 -0.070 0.031∗∗∗ 0.026∗ (0.006) (0.012) (0.058) (0.009) (0.014) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) -0.031 0.010 -0.097 -0.072 -0.155 Y-mean (2010) 3.431 2.969 3.795 3.452 3.960 Observations 2318 2307 2275 2317 2284 Notes: This table is similar to Table 9 but instead shows results when regressions do not control for the change in the outcome variable from 2000-2010. See the notes to Table 9 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A25) Estimated Effect of Return Migration on Employment-Does not control for change in outcome variable (2000-2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations All (1) All Women (2) No HS 0.008∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.003∗∗∗ (0.001) 0.011∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.007∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.041∗ (0.024) 0.015 (0.012) -0.038 0.548 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.036 (0.035) 0.013 (0.015) -0.031 0.258 1.093 2.187 2319 (3) HS Plus OLS 0.006∗ (0.003) -0.009∗∗∗ (0.001) IV -0.013 (0.015) 0.005 (0.008) -0.060 0.519 1.077 2.189 2311 Men (4) No HS (5) HS Plus 0.008∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.001 (0.001) 0.001 (0.005) -0.000 (0.003) -0.050∗∗∗ (0.019) 0.014 (0.011) -0.059 0.822 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.071 (0.051) 0.021 (0.027) -0.037 0.853 1.092 2.188 2307 Notes: This table is similar to Table 15 but instead shows results when regressions do not control for the change in the outcome variable from 2000-2010. See the notes to Table 15 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A26) Estimated Effect of Return Migration on Log Monthly Income-W/O Control for Change in Outcome Variable (2000-2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations All (1) All Women (2) No HS -0.014∗∗∗ (0.003) 0.009∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.011∗∗∗ (0.003) 0.016∗∗ (0.006) -0.029 (0.020) 0.021∗ (0.011) -0.031 3.431 1.093 2.187 2318 -0.019 (0.035) 0.013 (0.021) 0.010 2.969 1.091 2.187 2307 (3) HS Plus OLS -0.003 (0.005) 0.009∗∗∗ (0.003) IV 0.302 (0.256) -0.083 (0.128) -0.097 3.795 1.081 2.193 2275 Men (4) No HS (5) HS Plus -0.013∗∗∗ (0.003) 0.005∗ (0.003) 0.008 (0.008) 0.000 (0.003) -0.094 (0.064) 0.045 (0.031) -0.072 3.452 1.093 2.188 2317 -0.036 (0.031) 0.039 (0.028) -0.155 3.960 1.079 2.184 2284 Notes: This table is similar to Table 16 but instead shows results when regressions do not control for the change in the outcome variable from 2000-2010. See the notes to Table 16 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A27) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Employment-Deportees with Lower Level Crimes or No Convictions All (1) -0.012∗ (0.007) SC dep. share cat. 3 or no conv. (2010) 0.011∗ (0.006) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) -0.038 Y-mean (2010) 0.548 Observations 2319 SC dep. share cat. 3 or no conv. (2015) Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus -0.010 -0.013∗ -0.013∗∗ -0.018∗∗ (0.010) (0.007) (0.006) (0.008) 0.009 0.006 0.010∗ 0.006 (0.007) (0.006) (0.006) (0.007) -0.031 -0.058 -0.059 -0.036 0.258 0.521 0.822 0.854 2319 2249 2319 2257 Notes: This table is similar to Table 8 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built using deportations of individuals convicted of lower level crimes or who do not have any criminal convictions. See the notes to Table 8 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A28) Reduced Form Effects of Deportee Ratios on Log Monthly IncomeDeportees with Lower Level Crimes or No Convictions All (1) Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus SC deportee share (2015) -0.010 -0.007 0.103 -0.033∗∗∗ -0.013 (0.007) (0.011) (0.064) (0.012) (0.012) ∗∗ ∗∗∗ SC deportee share (2010) 0.014 0.008 -0.070 0.031 0.026∗ (0.006) (0.012) (0.058) (0.009) (0.014) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) -0.031 0.010 -0.097 -0.072 -0.155 Y-mean (2010) 3.431 2.969 3.795 3.452 3.960 Observations 2318 2307 2275 2317 2284 Notes: This table is similar to Table 9 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built using deportations of individuals convicted of lower level crimes or who do not have any criminal convictions. See the notes to Table 9 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A29) Estimated Effect of Return Migration on Employment-Deportees with Lower Level Crimes or No Convictions All (1) All Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations 0.008∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.003∗∗∗ (0.001) -0.041∗ (0.024) 0.015 (0.012) -0.038 0.548 1.093 2.187 2319 Women (2) (3) No HS HS Plus OLS ∗∗∗ 0.011 0.006∗ (0.001) (0.003) ∗∗∗ -0.007 -0.009∗∗∗ (0.001) (0.001) IV -0.036 -0.013 (0.035) (0.015) 0.013 0.005 (0.015) (0.008) -0.031 -0.060 0.258 0.519 1.093 1.077 2.187 2.189 2319 2311 Men (4) (5) No HS HS Plus 0.008∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.001 (0.001) 0.001 (0.005) -0.000 (0.003) -0.050∗∗∗ (0.019) 0.014 (0.011) -0.059 0.822 1.093 2.187 2319 -0.071 (0.051) 0.021 (0.027) -0.037 0.853 1.092 2.188 2307 Notes: This table is similar to Table 15 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built using deportations of individuals convicted of lower level crimes or who do not have any criminal convictions. See the notes to Table 15 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column. Table (A30) Estimated Effect of Return Migration on Log Monthly Income-Deportees with Lower Level Crimes or No Convictions All (1) All Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) Return migrant share (2015) Return migrant share (2010) ∆Y-mean (2010-2015) Y-mean (2010) Ret. migrant share (2015)-sd Ret. migrant share (2010)-sd Observations -0.017∗∗∗ (0.002) 0.004∗∗ (0.002) -0.065∗∗∗ (0.022) 0.025∗∗∗ (0.009) -0.031 3.432 1.093 2.187 2317 Women Men (2) (3) (4) (5) No HS HS Plus No HS HS Plus OLS ∗∗ -0.010 -0.013∗ -0.018∗∗∗ 0.012 (0.004) (0.007) (0.002) (0.011) 0.009∗ 0.008∗∗∗ 0.002 0.001 (0.005) (0.003) (0.002) (0.003) IV -0.042 0.018 -0.124∗∗ 0.052 (0.033) (0.038) (0.056) (0.093) 0.030 0.015 0.049∗ -0.006 (0.022) (0.023) (0.029) (0.035) 0.010 -0.096 -0.072 -0.155 2.970 3.805 3.453 3.972 1.076 1.027 1.093 1.032 2.185 2.174 2.188 2.191 2300 2167 2316 2207 Notes: This table is similar to Table 16 but instead shows results when the SC deportee shares are built using deportations of individuals convicted of lower level crimes or who do not have any criminal convictions. See the notes to Table 16 for further details on the dependent variables and samples used in each column.