Democracy and Human Development 2

Table 1: Human Development Indicators Compared DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS Infant mortality rate (0-1) Child mortality rate (0-5) Life expectancy Illiteracy Income poverty (% below nat’l poverty line) GDP per capita Obs 7424 6781 7319 4320 229 6400 Mean 66.6 104.0 61.0 31.0 34.4 5248.5 Std Dev 52.5 89.1 11.9 25.7 16.6 8219.7 CORRELATION MATRIX 1. Infant mortality rate (0-1) 2. Child mortality rate (0-5) 3. Life expectancy 4. Illiteracy 5. Income poverty (% below nat’l poverty line) 6. GDP per capita 1. 1.00 .991 -.946 .827 .656 -.542 2. 3. 4. 5. 1.00 -.947 .832 .655 -.506 1.00 -.804 -.641 .581 1.00 .296 -.382 1.00 -.542 Loadings: 2 3 .0085 .0643 .0703 .0246 .0837 .0514 .1693 -.0442 .2751 .0033 Unique -ness .0143 .0095 .0915 .2420 .6534 FACTOR ANALYSIS Infant mortality rate (0-1) Child mortality rate (0-5) Life expectancy Illiteracy GDP per capita 1 .9906 .9925 -.9481 .8529 -.5205 Min 2.4 3.0 31.2 .2 4.6 .0 Max 293.0 517.0 81.1 94.3 73.3 56382.0 Note: Income poverty is excluded from the factor analysis due to its smaller number of observations. All data are drawn from World Bank (2003). See text for notes on the handling of missing data. Table 2: Fixed-Effect Specification Tests Temporal correction Democracy level 1 lag(1) -0.0004 (0.001) Democracy stock 2 lag(1) 3 lag(1) -0.0026** (0.001) -0.0013*** (0.0001) 4 lag(1) 5 lag(1) -0.0001 (0.001) -0.0012*** (0.0001) 6 lag(1) 7 lag(1) 0.0002 (0.001) -0.0013*** -0.0013*** (0.0001) (0.0001) 8 lag(1) -0.0012 (0.001) 9 lag(1) 10 11 LSDV LSDV GDPpc (ln) Urbanization Female illiteracy (logit) Instability Lagged dep var Trend Year dummies Constant Observations Countries Sample Period R-square (within) Prob>F 13 lag(1) -0.0006*** (0.0002) -0.0013*** (0.0001) -0.0001* (0.00004) Democracy level (t-10) Democracy stock (t-10) 12 lag(1) -0.0085*** (0.001) -0.0010*** (0.0001) -0.3322*** -0.2591*** -0.2988*** -0.2373*** -0.2370*** -0.2800*** -0.2210*** -0.0118*** -0.0089** -0.3202*** -0.2539*** (0.020) (0.020) (0.022) (0.021) (0.021) (0.022) (0.021) (0.004) (0.004) (0.023) (0.023) -0.0031** -0.0075*** -0.0019 -0.0057*** -0.0057*** -0.0019 -0.0058*** -0.0006*** -0.0010*** -0.0020 -0.0061*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.0002) (0.0003) (0.001) (0.001) -0.0058 -0.0025 -0.0024 0.0322*** 0.0249*** -0.0051*** -0.0047*** -0.000006 0.0047 (0.006) (0.005) (0.005) (0.007) (0.007) (0.001) (0.001) (0.005) (0.005) 0.0014* 0.0008 0.0008 0.0012 0.0006 0.000002 -0.00002 0.0009 0.0011 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.001) (0.001) 0.9771*** 0.9731*** (0.006) (0.007) -0.0304*** -0.0310*** -0.0251*** -0.0238*** -0.0294*** -0.0268*** -0.0268*** -0.0293*** -0.0281*** (0.0005) (0.0004) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) YES YES 4.4689*** 4.4310*** 6.9632*** 6.5808*** 6.7488*** 6.4162*** 6.4150*** 6.6954*** 6.3436*** 0.1658*** 0.1764*** 6.9087*** 6.5917*** (0.012) (0.011) (0.152) (0.151) (0.173) (0.166) (0.167) (0.175) (0.169) (0.046) (0.052) (0.182) (0.178) 6569 192 1960-00 0.707 0.000 6562 192 1960-00 0.737 0.000 5547 178 1960-00 0.782 0.000 5545 178 1960-00 0.805 0.000 4495 158 1960-99 0.813 0.000 4492 158 1960-99 0.834 0.000 4492 158 1960-99 0.834 0.000 4495 158 1960-99 0.820 0.000 4492 158 1960-99 0.840 0.000 4492 158 1960-99 0.980 0.000 4489 158 1960-99 0.980 0.000 Dependent variable: IMR (ln) Unit of analysis: country-year. All independent variables are lagged one time-period. Newey-West standard errors in parentheses. Country fixed effects are included in each model. Models 5-7 are regarded as the benchmark model. 4296 157 1960-99 0.827 0.000 4291 157 1960-99 0.838 0.000 Table 3: Further Specification Tests 1 lag(1) Temporal correction Data interval Annual -0.0021* Democracy level (0.001) Democracy stock GDPpc (ln) Urbanization Female illiteracy (logit) Instability Population (ln, 1960) Ethnic fractionalization Latitude (ln) Muslim Africa Asia Latin America Socialism 2 lag(1) Annual 3 4 5 6 7 lag(1) lag(1) lag(1) lag(1) lag(1) Annual 3-years 3-years Annual Annual -0.0004 -0.0005 -0.0095*** (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) -0.0010*** -0.0010*** -0.0012*** -0.0006*** (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0002) (0.00004) -0.1721*** -0.1372*** -0.1376*** -0.3072*** -0.2474*** -0.3823*** -0.3496*** (0.020) (0.021) (0.021) (0.036) (0.035) (0.012) (0.012) -0.0013 -0.0035*** -0.0035*** -0.0018 -0.0055** -0.0043*** -0.0043*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) 0.0127** 0.0118** 0.0115** -0.0152 -0.0094 0.0486*** 0.0392*** (0.005) (0.005) (0.005) (0.010) (0.010) (0.006) (0.007) 0.0022** 0.0017** 0.0017** 0.0031* 0.0018 0.0087*** 0.0077*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.001) -0.0082 -0.0009 (0.005) (0.005) 0.2771*** 0.2800*** (0.034) (0.033) 0.0336*** 0.0382*** (0.012) (0.011) 0.0026*** 0.0022*** (0.0003) (0.0003) 0.2306*** 0.2866*** (0.033) (0.032) -0.1667*** -0.1609*** (0.032) (0.033) 0.3516*** 0.2890*** (0.027) (0.026) -0.1869*** -0.3632*** (0.038) (0.043) 8 lag(1) Annual -0.0098*** (0.001) -0.3611*** (0.013) -0.0044*** (0.001) 0.0826*** (0.008) 0.0087*** (0.001) -0.0091* (0.005) 0.2712*** (0.034) 0.0344*** (0.012) 0.0021*** (0.0003) 0.2044*** (0.032) -0.1829*** (0.032) 0.3416*** (0.026) -0.1412*** (0.038) Lagged dep var Trend Multiple imputation Year dummies Country fixed effects Constant Observations Countries Sample Period R-square (within) Prob>F Sargan test (prob) 9 lag(1) Annual 10 A-Bond Annual 0.0006 (0.0005) 11 A-Bond Annual -0.0006*** -0.0004*** (0.00004) (0.00005) -0.3357*** -0.0552*** -0.0451*** (0.013) (0.009) (0.009) -0.0043*** 0.0009* -0.0005 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) 0.0660*** -0.0010 -0.0025 (0.008) (0.002) (0.002) 0.0078*** 0.0003 0.0003 (0.001) (0.0003) (0.0003) -0.0021 (0.005) 0.2757*** (0.033) 0.0379*** (0.011) 0.0018*** (0.0003) 0.2653*** (0.032) -0.1737*** (0.032) 0.2850*** (0.025) -0.3146*** (0.044) 0.8644*** 0.8186*** (0.009) (0.010) -0.0278*** -0.0278*** -0.0278*** -0.0285*** -0.0259*** -0.0239*** -0.0255*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.0009) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) YES YES YES YES 5.7715*** (0.159) YES 5.5923*** (0.169) YES 5.5939*** (0.169) YES 6.7762*** (0.282) YES 6.4515*** (0.274) 7.3107*** (0.107) 6233 199 1960-99 0.732 0.000 6233 199 1960-99 0.749 0.000 6233 199 1960-99 0.749 0.000 1640 158 1960-99 0.813 0.000 1639 158 1960-99 0.833 0.000 4371 149 1960-99 0.882 0.000 YES YES 7.0463*** (0.104) 7.3441*** (0.112) 7.0117*** (0.108) 4368 149 1960-99 0.891 0.000 4371 149 1960-99 0.886 0.000 4368 149 1960-99 0.893 0.000 Dependent variable: IMR (ln) All independent variables are lagged one time-period. Newey-West standard errors in parentheses and AR1 correction for serial autocorrelation, except in the final two models, where the analysis is Arellano-Bond. YES -0.0043*** (0.0004) YES -0.0048*** (0.0004) 4328 157 1960-99 4325 157 1960-99 0.000 0.000 Table 4: Sample Restrictions Excluding Democracy level Democracy Stock GDPpc (ln) Urbanization Female Illiteracy Instability Trend Constant Observations Countries Sample Period R-square (within) Prob>F 1 2 3 4 5 6 Interpolated data Most autocratic Most democratic -0.0015 -0.0005 -0.0007 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) -0.0013*** -0.0012*** -0.0011*** (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) -0.3343*** -0.2686*** -0.3225*** -0.3393*** -0.2674*** -0.2705*** (0.027) (0.025) (0.027) (0.030) (0.028) (0.028) -0.0011 -0.0053*** 0.0024 -0.0031* -0.0015 -0.0063*** (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) -0.0098 -0.0094 -0.0124 -0.0054 -0.0095 -0.0115* (0.008) (0.007) (0.009) (0.008) (0.007) (0.007) 0.0017* 0.0009 0.0022** 0.0006 -0.0006 0.0015 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) -0.0317*** -0.0283*** -0.0335*** -0.0281*** -0.0278*** -0.0271*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) 6.8436*** 6.5566*** 6.5524*** 7.0506*** 6.5248*** 6.6090*** (0.225) (0.209) (0.235) (0.244) (0.207) (0.205) 2603 159 1960-99 0.850 0.000 2602 159 1960-99 0.866 0.000 2426 153 1960-99 0.856 0.000 2400 146 1960-99 0.873 0.000 1715 134 1960-99 0.771 0.000 1832 141 1960-99 0.801 0.000 7 8 9 10 11 12 Asia Latin America Africa -0.0028** -0.0028* -0.0010 (0.001) (0.002) (0.002) -0.0013*** -0.0013*** -0.0005*** (0.0001) (0.0001) (0.0001) -0.3335*** -0.2303*** -0.3552*** -0.2711*** -0.2105*** -0.2011*** (0.027) (0.025) (0.031) (0.030) (0.032) (0.031) 0.0009 -0.0038** -0.0006 -0.0059*** -0.0082*** -0.0095*** (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.001) (0.002) -0.0405*** -0.0307*** -0.0193* -0.0165 0.0285*** 0.0253*** (0.009) (0.009) (0.011) (0.011) (0.007) (0.007) 0.0021** 0.0014 0.0026** 0.0013 0.0013 0.0011 (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) -0.0331*** -0.0296*** -0.0311*** -0.0275*** -0.0350*** -0.0332*** (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) (0.001) 6.7179*** 6.1910*** 6.9191*** 6.5549*** 6.2356*** 6.2398*** (0.239) (0.214) (0.258) (0.237) (0.274) (0.263) 2290 139 1960-99 0.855 0.000 2289 139 1960-99 0.871 0.000 2247 138 1960-99 0.849 0.000 2246 138 1960-99 0.866 0.000 2084 113 1960-99 0.901 0.000 2084 113 1960-99 0.903 0.000 13 14 Middle East -0.0032** (0.001) -0.0016*** (0.0001) -0.3826*** -0.2994*** (0.028) (0.027) 0.0024 -0.0030* (0.002) (0.002) -0.0286*** -0.0327*** (0.008) (0.008) 0.0019* 0.0007 (0.001) (0.001) -0.0315*** -0.0270*** (0.001) (0.001) 6.9744*** 6.6223*** (0.246) (0.222) 2390 142 1960-99 0.859 0.000 Dependent variable: IMR (ln) Unit of analysis: country-year (with fixed effects). All independent variables are lagged one time-period. Newey-West standard errors in parentheses. AR1 correction for serial autocorrelation. Exclusions from the full sample are explained in the text. 2389 142 1960-99 0.881 0.000 15 16 OECD 0.0040*** (0.001) -0.0008*** (0.0001) -0.2098*** -0.1989*** (0.026) (0.026) -0.0004 -0.0016 (0.002) (0.002) -0.0104 -0.0093 (0.007) (0.007) -0.0002 -0.0003 (0.001) (0.001) -0.0295*** -0.0281*** (0.001) (0.001) 6.1426*** 6.0239*** (0.190) (0.190) 1607 128 1960-99 0.753 0.000 1606 128 1960-99 0.761 0.000 Appendix: Descriptive Statistics Variable Observations Mean IMR (interpolated, ln) 6569 IMR (ln) 3688 Democracy level 6569 Democracy stock 6561 GDPpc (ln) 5588 Urbanization 6524 Female illiteracy (logit) 5467 Instability 5703 Population (ln, 1960) 6462 Ethnic fractionalization 6308 Latitude (ln) 6436 Muslim (percent) 6522 Africa (dummy) 6523 Asia (dummy) 6523 Latin America (dummy) 6482 Socialism (dummy) 6522 3.785 3.482 -0.283 -39.603 7.428 46.341 -1.501 -0.073 8.141 0.449 -1.589 23.739 0.265 0.128 0.120 0.189 Std. Dev. Minimum Maximum 0.992 0.88 5.66 1.049 0.88 5.63 7.536 -10 11 253.635 -534.7 637.6 1.544 3.898 10.937 24.123 2.23 100 2.158 -6.213 4.385 4.308 -2.214 68.495 1.858 2.708 13.411 0.262 0.000 0.930 0.966 -4.500 -0.341 35.894 0.00 99.90 0.441 0 1 0.334 0 1 0.325 0 1 0.392 0 1