Demography (Population Studies)

DEMOGRAPHY ( POPULATION STUDIES): IS THE STUDY OF HUMAN POPULATIONS: Size THEIR Composition Distribution s From that definition: demographers seek to know : A) Trends and levels of population size . B) Composition . C) Changes (causes) + consequences . + CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGES IN THESE CHARACTERISTICS. *How they do that ? By using information from : -censuses -surveys - birth and death records - visa records - motor vehicle - school registrations . Population factors have an impact on many facets of life : (from where we live to the prices we pay for goods and services) Industrialized countries Aging Need Health care e a 1 Growing countries More youth -classrooms - employment opportunities - housing preoccupies . The Tools of Demography • COUNT absolute number of a population or any demographic event in a specified area and time . • RATE frequency (during a specified time period) Six Rate Rate 000000 Age Age Specific 000000 0000 sub group Action Population All Crude “at risk” Rates tell how common it is for a given event to occur . ex: the death rate was 16 per 1,000 population in 2008. “in Zambia” • RATIO : sub group Sub group ex : male female • PROPORTION: sub group population % ex: Syrian people makes 20 % of Jordan population ______________________________________ **Notes : 11 July world population day 10.5 Million in Jordan 7.65 Billion in the word *Top 5 countries according to the population size : China → India → USA → Indonesia → Brazil 2 Factors determining population dynamic : *Mortality *Fertility *Mortality  Total Fertility Rate (TFR): is the average number of children that would be born to a woman by the time she ends childbearing (15-49) . ** it gives the best picture of how many children women are having ** Jordan 2.7 world : 2.42 - TFR : for woman . - GFR : for 1000 woman in age (15-49 ) . - CBR : for 1000 population . (TFR) decreases in Jordan . Fecundity : The physiological ability of women to reproduce. Measured by number of gametes → 0-30 * In fecund women due to : disease or genetic dysfunction Primary reason → breastfeed 3 . **Factors affected fertility** Specific General The relative importance of these factors varies by society . • Operate indirectly - Cultural values - Social roles - Economic - Health • (proximate determinants) Have direct biological effect on fertility : - The proportion of women . - The percentage of using contraception. - The proportion of women who are not currently fecund (primarily because of breastfeeding). -The level of induced abortion. In US. and most developed countries contraceptive use and abortion are the most important proximate determinants . use rates >= 75%. ** Use rates in Jordan → 52% Spain → Lowest fertility rate (1.15) ** 72% using contraceptives ** Russia → low fertility rates due to easier access to abortion. African countries → women bring more children, but they breast feed for 2-3 years , thus prolonging the period of infecundity following 4childbirth is the major role in decreasing (FR) . k ( Postpartum infecundity + Marriage determinants ) → have larger influence on FR when contraceptive and abortion rate are low . Fertility Measurement : 1) Crude Birth Rate ( Birth Rate ) Live births . 1000 Total Mid year pop ** ex : 22 births per 1000 pop in 2009 • The easiest + most common • In Jordan = 21.6 2) General Fertility Rate ( Fertility Rate ) Number of births . 1000 Women ages 15-44 • More refined measure ( Age specific + Sex specific ) • In Jordan = 90 3) Replacement level fertility : The level of fertility at which a couple has only enough children to replace themselves, or about 2 children per couple. • If it achieved → no growth in population 5 RLF α 1 1 1 mortality • TFR must be slightly higher than 2 >>> why ? -Because of Mortality . ________________________________________ Mortality 1) Death Rate (crude death rate) : Deaths . 1000 T .Pop • Could be specific ( age , cause , sex ) 2) Infant Mortality Rate : Deaths infant under age of 1 Total live births . 1000 • a good indicator of the health status of a population. • In Jordan = 17 per 1000 birth . 3) Maternal Mortality Ratio (rate) *women who die due to : 1- Complications of pregnancy . 2- Complications of childbearing . 3- Complications of abortions . 4- Complications after giving birth ( for 42 days ) . ________________________________________ Total live births 6 . 100 k • Note : it is measured usually per 100,000 live births. • In Jordan = 19.1 • Maternal Death: Death of women for one of the previous reasons. ________________________________________ Morbidity : Disease , illness , injury and disability in a population . • Data about the (frequency + distribution) may help : 1-controlling it 2- identify causes. Prevalence Rate : Incidence Rate : Developing a disease Pop at risk Case fatality Rate : People who die from the disease Having the disease Total Pop People having the disease Life Expectancy : • An estimate of how many years a child will live . • It depends on current death rate . • It changes as a person grows older and as mortality trends change • In Jordan : 72.8 Male , 74.3 Female . Population composition : Age + Sex ➔ Number and proportion of males and females in each age group . 7 Population Young (aging) old - 40% → < 15 years - 25% → < 15 y - 4% are older group - 10% are older than 65 y - ex : Jordan, Africa (developing) - ex : developed countries *Median age : the age at which exactly (50%) the population is older and (50%) is younger. in Jordan : 1995 → 18 2012 → 20.3 2017 → 22 *sex ratio : Male female • usually expressed as the number of males for every 100 females. • in most countries is about 105 or 106 males per 100 females. *population pyramid : a graph that displays a population’s age and sex composition. * Population profiles : Populations can differ as a result of past and current ( fertility, mortality, and migration ) (1) Rapid growth (2) slow growth (3) zero growth Younger age (=) in all ages younger age 8 In Jordan population profile is changing from rapid to slow . ** Population changes: (three factors) 1- births. 2- deaths. 3- migration. *in the 20th the growth accelerated due to better life availability. * Calculating population change over time → P1+(B-D)+(I-E)= P2 Net migration B>D → Natural increase. B< D →Natural decrease • Rate of natural increase : Natural increase or decrease Total pop • Growth Rate : Natural (I/D) + Net migration Total pop Demographic Transition : High rates of births and death Change low rate of births and deaths • How ? decline in mortality followed by decline in fertility. Stage 1 → B D = Little or NO growth . Stage 2 → B D = High growth . Stage 3 → declining in B and low D = Slowed growth . Stage 4 → B D = V. low growth . 9