Introduction of Energy and Climate Change

Introduction of Energy and Climate Change Presented by: Professor James Dallas Norah Gallagher Date: 24 June 2020 Contents - Part 1 - The Science and the Problem - Part 2 - The Challenge for Public International Law (1 July) - Part 3 - The International Legal Framework (1 July) - Part 4 - Climate Change Disputes (8 July) Part 1 The Science and The Problem What Is The "Greenhouse Effect"? - Natural process that warms the earth's surface - Some of the sun's energy is trapped in the atmosphere on its way to earth - The rest warms the earth.... which radiates energy back to space - Some of that energy is again trapped in the earth's atmosphere and re-radiated to earth - the rest escapes to space - The net effect is the earth is warmer than it otherwise would be The Goldilocks Effect - The greenhouse effect is essential to life - It maintains the earth's temperature at approx. 33°C warmer than it would be (14.9°C) - The moon without a similar atmosphere • 100°C during the day • -187°C during the night • Average temperature -18°C - But it's a delicate balance and the balance is being disrupted - The gases in the atmosphere which have this absorbing effect are the greenhouse gases Principal Greenhouse Gases - Water vapor - CO 2 - Methane - Ozone - Fluorinated gases - Nitrous Oxide Carbon Dioxide - Small component of atmosphere (0.03%) - Big component of GHG emissions (excluding water vapor, CO2 76%, methane 16%, nitrous oxide 6%) - - Natural sources • Respiration by aerobic organisms including humans • Volcanic eruptions and forest fires • Transpiration from plants (at night) • Decomposition of organic material (e.g. rotting vegetation) Manmade sources • Burning of fossil fuels • Cement production • Deforestation CO 2 Sinks - CO2 balancing mechanisms - sinks remove CO 2 - Sources of sinks • Forests photosynthesis in plants - conversion of sun's energy into sugars/food • Oceans  Solubility pump - CO2 dissolves in surface seawater  Biological pump - phytoplankton - photosynthesis takes up dissolved CO 2  By far the largest carbon sink Methane - More potent that CO 2 • - - i.e. absorbs more energy - but less prevalent (ppb not ppm) - shorter shelf life Natural sources • Rotting vegetation • Wetlands-60% trees - release methane • Cows / sheep / other ruminants' digestion Manmade sources • Energy / leaks • Waste / landfill • Biomass burning • Rice production So What's The Problem? - CO 2 levels historically • Occasionally very high - Cretaceous Period 2000 ppm • For last 800,000 years more or less constant 180-300 ppm • Average pre-industrial level 180 ppm • 1000 years for 35 ppm increase • Currently 2 ppm increase annually • Global temperature tracks closely CO2 levels • 2018 440 ppm - highest for 5 million years? What Does It Mean? - At current levels of GHG emissions’ • 2050 doubling of pre-industrial levels • Increase average temperature 2° - 5 °C by end of century - • Melting glaciers/polar ice caps / more flooding/violent storms etc. • Rising sea levels - 1 meter by end of century If it goes on • Greenland/Alaska permafrost melts: Methane release Sunlight absorbed not reflected • 12m rise sea levels: major cities disappear SIDs submerge • Millions of climate refugees • Impact on food production • Increase in health risks Target of 1.5°C - Special report of the IPCC - 8th October 2018 conclusions • Already witnessing the impact of 2°C increase • Likely to reach 1.5°C 2030-2052 (high confidence) 1.5°C Sea levels 10 cm lower Arctic Ocean summers 1 in 100 free of ice Coral reef decline 70-90% • 2°C 1 in 10 100% Rate, peak and duration affect outcome Target of 1.5°C - Net human CO2 emissions would need to fall 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 - 'Net zero' by around 2050 (remaining emissions balanced by removal of CO₂ from the air) - Paris Agreement aim 'holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5% - CO2 emissions increasing when need to halve by 2030 2016 Global Emissions 52Gt CO2e 2030 Projected 52-58 Need by 2030 25-30 - Unprecedented change to travel, urban and other systems, land use, energy, industry - Investment in low-carbon energy needs to grow 5x by 2050 Energy Sector - How is the energy sector linked to climate change - Climate Crisis - Energy Transition • Move towards green sustainable generation • Move from reliance on fossil fuel to renewables • Technology development • Green - sustainable - finance