The Growing Role Of The European Commission In Defense Capability Development Presented by: Prof. Dr. Molnár Date: 12 June 2024 The Research Aims - To present and analyses the growing role of the European Commission in CSDP - Structure: • Literature review on the theoretical and conceptual background of the Commission's role in CSDP • Decision-making processes in the field of CFSP and CSDP • External factors behind these developments • The role of the EC in the past and after the Russian aggression • SWOT analysis to highlight the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats regarding the role of the Commission in European defense Theoretical And Conceptual Framework - Europeanisation • The impact of the EU membership and integration processes on different domestic policies and politics - Historical institutionalist approach • Historical events and institutional structures influences the development and the behaviors of institutions. - Spillover effect • Internal and external factors, the evolving security challenges led to the growing involvement of the Commission in defense related activities as an agendasetting and policy entrepreneur institution EU Institutions and the EEAS - European Commission - represents the EU - European Parliament - represents the citizens - European Council and the Council - represents the 27 MS - European External Action Service - represents EU's foreign, security and defense policy European Commission - Supranational institution - exclusive initiator of the legislative process - CFSP pillar - initiative shared with MSs - Principal policy-maker in the EU - Overseas the implementation of the EU law in Member States ("guardian of the Treaties") - Politically responsible to the EP - 27 members Appointment of the European Commission - 5-year mandate - corresponds to the EP elections - European Council nominates President by QM - who has to be accepted by the majority in EP - President choses other commissioners - Interviews in EP - in the end - collective approval - QM in the European Council Factors Behind The Developments - Devastating experience of the Yugoslav wars - Russian aggression in Ukraine - Changing US foreign policy - • And consequently the weakening transatlantic relationship • Mainly during the trump administration Brexit • A window for opportunity for making steps further in the defense policy - Decreasing military expenditures. • In our days it is clearly seen that defiance policy plays a decisive role among the priorities of European governments as well. • Between 2008 and 2016, defense spending of EU MSs decreased with 9% • today they are spending significantly more, and defense expenditure reached 270 billion euros in 2023. • - Only 18% of the investment was realized in a collaborative The role of the European Commission in the field of defense 1990s • Not successfully supported the modification of the Article 223 EEC (now Article 346 TFEU) on the safeguard of national security interests • Commission began its defense related activities to gradually extend the rules of the internal market to the defense market • In 1996 and 1997 the Commission recommended to use community instruments and its DGs to improve the national defense industries • It also proposed the establishment of a new agency for defense related activities. The Role Of The European Commission In The Field Of Defense – 2000s - In 2003, the European Commission proposed • the gradual creation of a “European Defense Equipment Market” (EDEM) • to strengthen the European defense technological and industrial base (EDTIB) - The European Defense Agency (EDA) was created in 2004. - In 2007, EDA issued its strategy on the European Defense Technological and Industrial Base. • The objective: the gradual integration of the national level capability development and of the defense market to improve supply security - Following the Commission's proposals, • in 2009 new directives were accepted on defense procurement (Directive 2009/81/EC) and on guidelines for transfers inside the EU (Directive 2009/43/EC) • to decrease the fragmentation of European defense market Barroso Commissions Between 2004-2014 - Some significant steps - The issue of European defense and defense market were still politically very sensitive - Further integration was not supported by the critical number of member states. - Until the 2010s, the EU member states fulfilled the EDTIB strategic objectives only to a limited extent. - 2013, José Manuel Barroso said: "We will not have the weight we need in the world without a common defense policy." Juncker Commission between 2014 and 2019 - The implementation of initiatives for capability development objectives has been resting on four • Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) • Co-ordinated Annual Review on Defense (CARD) • European Defense Fund (EDF) • New regulations on common procurement - 2014, Russian annexation of Crimea as a watershed - 2016, Brexit - 2016, Global Strategy - In 2018, the European Commission proposal: the need to introduce qualified majority voting (QMV). • Treaty amendment or the application of the "Passarella" clause • Article 31(3), the Passarella clause: except in the case of military or defense related decisions - that the Council may also act by qualified majority • The European Commission has identified three areas where qualified majority decision- making could be used: 1) the promotion of human rights, 2) EU sanctions and 3) the launch of civilian missions. • Although the EP supported the European Commission's proposal to extend the QMV, • Not all MSs are supporting the idea, and no decision has yet been made at the level of the European Council. - 2017, Reflection paper on defense The Growing Role Of The European Commission In Defense Capability Development - 2015 Juncker's announcement: EU Army - 2017. Reflection Paper on the Future of European Defense - Europea Conseil - In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen proposed to create a European Defense Union by 2025 and to lead a 'geopolitical Commission' - 2020, Josep Borrell (HR/VP) stated that the EU needs to 'learn the language of power'. - 2020, State of the Union speech by Ursula von der Leyen did not mention the establishment of an ESDU or strategic autonomy - 2020, MSs governments and institutions put together the first threat analysis - 2022, Strategic Compass (Council of the EU): strategic autonomy - 2023, European Defense Agency's annual conference, Ursula von der Leyen: „The European Union should go towards a fully-fledged 'European Defense Union'" - 2024, at the Munich Security Conference, Ursula von der Leyen: "If I would be the president of the next European Commission, I would have a commissioner for defense," Von der Leyen Commission - The Directorate-General for Defense Industry and Space (DG DEFIS) • Responsible for supporting the competitiveness and innovation of the European Defense industry by guaranteeing the development of an effective European defense technological and industrial base. • The DG DEFIS has an important role in the implementation and the oversight of the European Defense Fund • Manages the Commission's activities regarding the Action Plan on Military Mobility. - 2022, European Council in Versailles, member states of the EU • Expressed their commitment for enhancing the European defense technological and industrial basis • And asked the European Commission to continue planning in that policy area • 2024, European Defense Industrial Strategy Strengths - The creation of the EDF • For strengthened the role of the Commission • EUCom has had several decades of experience in the field of planning, implementing and controlling EU financial programs • The EDF: a "game changer for defense" • supported the introduction of partial supranational governance in the area of European defense market - Strategic thinking • As strategic documents (like the Strategic Compass (2022) or the European Defense Industrial Strategy (2024)) • - Available financial support from the EU budget • - Sets clear vision for further development Represents an important incentive and strength for further development. By the creation of the DG for Defense Industry and Space (DG DEFIS) • The Commission has empowered itself significantly in the field of defense industry and space sector. Weaknesses - The differences in the MSs' threat perceptions, strategic cultures - And their diverging relationship with the US and the NATO • Can weaken and obstacle the deepening of integration in this field and the attempt of the Commission for a growing role. - The lack of collaborative defense investment and substantial financial support from the EU budget • - Can also negatively affect the implementation of the ambitious objectives The institutional background on the EU level is still fragmented and the European Commission must compete with other actors, • Like with the EDA or the EEAS Opportunities - The Commission as policy entrepreneurs can support further integration - Inter-dependences between different policy fields • Can create tensions thus can act as a spill-over effect from the economy to defense. • The implementation of the EDF, EDIP and EDIS • Indicates a bureaucratic spillover that could accelerate the preparation of further initiatives by the Commission. - Institutional developments • Like the establishment of the Defense Industrial Readiness Board will further strengthen the Commission's role in the field of defense. - The worsening security environment in the proximity of the European Union, • Especially the war in Ukraine could act both as a threat or an opportunity for the stronger geopolitical role of the Commission. - Opinion of the citizens • According to Standard Eurobarometer (100 Autumn 2023) 77% of respondents are in favors of "a common defense and security policy among EU Member States". - Another opportunity is provided by the proposal of ECOFIN in April 2024 • To update policies and framework for lending of the European Investment Bank Group (EIB Group) to the security and defense industry. Threats - European Commission is not fully supported by the MSs during the EU budget negotiations - According to Besch • "In theory, cooperation offers economic benefits such as reduced equipment duplication, increased production, and lower costs. In practice, national interests and protectionism, coupled with operational and bureaucratic inefficiencies, have historically impeded effective collaboration." - Sabatino (2022) argues that • "Diverging strategic industrial interests of MSs and of industrial players seek to prevent a deeper integration of the European defense market." - The increasing support of Eurosceptic political parties at national and European level • Can also hinder the strengthening of the Commission's role in general and in the field of defense - Hybrid threats and external interference • Can negatively affect the deeper integration in this field Conclusions - The European Commission has gone through severe changes accelerated by external factors and internal developments - Institutional reforms (HR/VP, EEAS) and several crisis situations • - Has pushed the development of the Commission The increasing role of the Commission in defense industry policy has been interpreted as a game changer for realizing a partial shift from intergovernmental to supranational governance in the European defense market". - Originally the role of the Commission was only limited in the area of CFSP and CSDP • This institutional structure was significantly changed by the Russian aggression in Ukraine. • The EDU by 2025 and the realization of collaborative defense industrial cooperation were promoted by the Commission. • The creation of the EDF effected in blurring the traditional distinction between intergovernmental and supranational decision-making processes. • By the creation of the DG DEFIS in 2019, the role of the Commission was strengthened significantly in the field of defense industry and space sector. • After the full-scale war in Ukraine shortages and the problems deriving from the under sizing, the fragmentation and underfunding of European defense industry became crystal clear.