Future Technological Battlefield And Its Dual-Use Aspects Presented by: Dr. Mazal Date: 7 March 2024 Introduction - In the constantly changing global technology world, dual-use innovations have consistently woven a complex pattern, serving civilian and military needs. - The term "technological battlefield" refers to the arena where advanced technologies significantly shape modern warfare, security operations, and defense strategies, powered by artificial intelligence, cyber warfare tools, unmanned autonomous systems, space technologies, and advanced communication systems - Based on the current technology and military operations trends, the following areas of evolvement could be considered critical for the future technological battlefield transformation: - • Automated and Al-driven Warfare • Digital Frontlines • Electromagnetic Spectrum and Information Warfare • Dominance in Outer Space • Biotechnological Warfare • Quantum Frontiers The technological battlefield is multifaceted, dynamic, and continually evolving, while the traditional warfare objectives, like dominance, defense, and deterrence, remain unchanged, the tools and terrains have been revolutionized - Military history is, in essence, a narrative of relentless technological innovation - Essential examples where dual-use technology was helpful for both civilian and military purposes could include the following: • Satellite communications • Long-range earth surveillance • Global Positioning System (GPS), • Internet • Nuclear energy • Military medicine • Radar and sonar systems • Advanced materials • Rocket propulsion technologies Contemporary Developments In NΑΤΟ - The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has always been at the forefront of leveraging advanced technology to ensure collective defense, crisis management, and cooperative security - The reality always differs for each particular member state - Serious discussions about the roles of advanced technologies, especially Autonomous systems, started in 2012/2013, as it comes from activities like: NATO RTO - SAS 097 Robots underpinning future NATO Operations (2012-2014) or MCDC - Role of Autonomous Systems in Gaining Operational Access - The NATO Summit 2018 - NATO Science & Technology Trends 2023-2043, EDTs that are expected to impact NATO's strategic and operational capabilities: • (i) Artificial Intelligence, • (ii) Robotics and Autonomous Systems, • (iii) Biotechnology and Human Enhancement, • (iv) Big Data and Information Communication Technologies, • (v) Electronics and Electromagnetics (new supplemental EDT). • (vi) Energy and Propulsion, • (vii) Hypersonic Technologies, • (viii) Novel Materials and Advanced Manufacturing, • (ix) Quantum Technologies and • (x) Space Technologies. Key Technology Areas And Their Impact On Operational Effectiveness And Other Domains - Based on the analyses of the operational needs and recognition of the critical technologies seriously impacting a future operations environment by NATO, EDA, USA, and China • Artificial intelligence and machine learning • Biotechnology and Human Augmentation • Autonomous systems and robotics • Cybersecurity and cyber resilience • Space technology • Big data analytics • Quantum technologies • Advanced materials and manufacturing • Hypersonic weapons • Energy and propulsion • Internet of Things (IoT) • Directed energy weapons • 5/6G and communication technologies • Adaptive education and training • Cloud computing • Blockchain technology • Electronics and Electromagnetics Main Aspects Of Military Advanced Technology Within Future Warfare - Performance-oriented battlefield - the logical assumption, derived from industrial domains and trends, is that future battlefield evolvement will be driven by a highly pragmatic approach, leading to cost/benefit optimization, which will inevitably discriminate some redundant military approaches and dogmas - The role of the C2 in the military - C2 creates a fundamental framework within military operations management, and it is integral to orchestrating the use of military forces during warfare - Transition to an Al C2 in future military operations - the evolvement of modern warfare, there is a solid and logical assumption that the future battlefield will require a new concept of C2 approaches within all levels of command - C5ISTAR systems - high-level integration of systems and activities that armed forces utilize to secure and maintain information superiority in military operations - Building trust in advanced technology - is essential to the success of defense operations, and it is achieved through rigorous operational testing and validation - Improved situational awareness - is crucial for operational efficiency improvement and domination within the information domain - The role of autonomy and warfare automation in C2 - will inevitably play transformative roles in future military - operations, reshaping strategies and tactics across various domains, and must be coherently integrated within the C2 area - International cooperation and standardization - are essential for creating a cohesive and efficient framework for multinational joint operations - Swarming, Autonomy, and Real-Time issues as the fundamental future military attributes - as predicted in 80-es and proved in the latest conflicts, autonomous systems are revolutionizing warfare in the 21st century, marking a paradigm shift in military domains Military Technology Impacts Human Domains And Dual-Use Aspects - Integrating advanced technology in the military significantly affects various human domains within this unique environment, such as: • Social Impact - sophisticated communication networks and collaboration platforms have revolutionized how military personnel communicate and coordinate, exceeding geographical barriers and enabling real-time, efficient exchange of information • Psychological impact - is fundamental and complex, influencing the mental health and operational mindset of military personnel • Cognitive impact - is a critical aspect of modern warfare, significantly influencing how military personnel perceive and process information • Economic impact - is complex, influencing national budgets, the defense industry, and broader economic landscapes • Cultural impact - extends beyond defense boundaries, influencing broader societal perspectives, values, and narratives • Environmental impact - is a growing concern, embedding direct and indirect effects on the planet's ecosystems • Political impact - is essential and far-reaching, influencing international relations dynamics and domestic policy decisions Ethical Aspects And Strategic Implications - The ethical and moral implications of advanced military technologies are increasingly coming to the forefront of defense discourse, posing philosophical questions and challenges - Within the international environment, various campaigns and initiatives aim to establish ethical frameworks for employing advanced military technologies, such as the Campaign to Stop Killer Robots, the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, and the Future of Life Institute. - While ethical campaigns and discussions are essential for the common consensus on the responsible use of advanced military technologies, generally, there is a severe risk of particular aspects overestimation supported by artificial or unrealistic scenarios, while well-intentioned, could be hiddenly supported (injected) by potential opponents to achieve specific goals and they present serious risks and challenges, like: - Innovation Slowdown - strict rules for tech. bans may obstruct innovation and research, putting a nation/alliance at a strategic disadvantage - Reaching Consensus Difficulties - diverse viewpoints worldwide leads to challenges in reaching a consensus on regulations - Rapid Pace of Technological Advancement - can surpass the development of ethical frameworks and regulations, resulting in a gap where new technologies are used without comprehensive ethical guidelines. - Dual-Use Dilemmas - regulations based on ethical campaigns may unintentionally delay beneficial civilian-military tech. advancements - Enforcement Challenges - enforcing ethical guidelines globally is challenging due to different countries' varying capabilities and priorities. - Security Dilemma - where nations feel threatened and respond with their developments, escalating an arms race - Public Perception and Trust - these campaigns may cause people to fear or mistrust advanced technologies, leading to resistance against beneficial uses. Short And Mid-Term Future Uncertainty - A correct prognosis is crucial for achieving future goals and operational efficiency within the security environment. - Unfortunately, it is fundamentally impossible to predict the future of complex socioeconomic systems accurately - In any case, we could track some historically proven and correct estimations in the military - The rapid pace of technological advancement and its impact on global society make prediction even more difficult in today's operating environment - Ray Kurzweil's path to singularity - Advancement of Al is 5 to 100 times faster than Moore's Law Recommendations For Policymakers, Military Strategists, And Tech Developers - Continuous evolvement - any development area suffers from breaks and restarts, leading to a skilled personnel outflow and cohesion and experience loss. - Budget an appropriate budget is foundational to the effective development of military technologies, enabling sustained innovation, attracting and retaining talent, maintaining advanced research facilities, and responding to emerging threats - Infrastructure - includes local constructions and facilities and a broader interconnection within a scientific and industrial community to create an efficient architecture of departments and institutions, which provides and maintains excellence within particular technological areas. - Human capital - encompasses the knowledge, skills, and abilities individuals possess and is essential for every stage of the technological development cycle, from research and development to production and deployment. - International cooperation - plays a fundamental role in any advanced development, offering several key advantages like state-of-the-art awareness, resource sharing, specialization and expertise, standardization and interoperability, innovation, cross- pollination of ideas, access to markets and technologies and support enhanced cooperation in other areas. Conclusion - The experience gained from the history of warfare is that the "level" of technological progress is a crucial aspect that cannot be compensated in any other way (like numerical superiority) - Fundamental nature of warfare and operational effectiveness aspects inevitably lead to the dynamic development of autonomous machines - One of the most critical components of the effective application of autonomous systems presents - coordinated swarm behavior - Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning will play an increasingly crucial role - The ongoing need for agility and rapid counter-measure development will initiate innovative and flexible solutions (for instance to the adaptive serial production) - Quantum computing and communications have the potential to revolutionize the military and civilian sectors - Space-based capabilities are expanding rapidly and will continue to be essential for military and civilian domains - Hypersonic weapons - Advanced materials and nanotechnology - Cyber domain is being continuously heavily exploited - Functionality within the particular domain will be driven or defined by SW features - The world will likely never return back to the "Cold War era" when "Doctrine pulls technology." - Critical condition for the dynamic evolution is establishment of trust in advanced technologies - Conservatism slows down military sectors' ability to respond to rapidly changing conditions, which can have lethal repercussions.