A Technology Of Countless Possibilities And Challenges From European Perspective

A Technology Of Countless Possibilities And Challenges From European Perspective Presented by: Dr. Trzun Date: 7 March 2024 Goals Of This Presentation: - Present both opportunities and challenges, have to be resolved in the (near) future - Detect probable paths of development of unmanned vehicles for European industry (personal opinion, not mandatory) Unmanned Military Systems - Variations in complexity of moving & operating: based by their basic domain - “Simple" domain: air -> only: uncontested airspace - UAVs: most developed, widely used, accepted by armies worldwide - ← Complex domain: ground - Maneuvers between destroyed buildings, diff. obstacles, landmines - UGVs at the beginning of their development cycle - Left: Rheinmetall Mission Master XT, an Extreme Terrain Autonomous UGV - History of UAVs: • Predator as a defining milestone for the UAV technology • Produced by the General Atomics, bought in January 1994 by the US Department of Defense (DOD) • First time in the ISR (intelligence - surveillance - reconnaissance) mission in 1995 (Bosnia) • Sleek, sailplane-like shape optimized for long endurance • Wingspan 14.8 m, weight only 513 kg • Range 1250 km, endurance 24h • First designation: RQ-1 (,,reconnaissance") • After being equipped with the AGM-114 Hellfire missile in 2002, the designation changed to MQ-1 (,,multirole") • AGM: Air-to-ground missile - CHALLENGES • Predator notorious for its poor reliability → „UAV that AF used to learn how to flight the UAV” • Almost half of all Predators involved in at least one incident • Out of 268 purchased, only 100 Predators "survived" its operational life (decommissioned in 2018) • Landed on houses, farms, roads, even crowded areas • Four Predators disappeared over Afghanistan, never found • For every 100,000 hours Predators flown, 13.7 Class A accidents (more than $2 million damage) • After 2009 (major components revision) the rate dropped to 4.79 Class A accidents - • → still extremely high rate, compared to manned aircrafts • F-16: 1.96, F-15: 1.47 class A accidents per 100,000 flight hours Predator's successor (2007): MQ-9 Reaper • Follows Predator's philosophy: also sailplane-like shape, also optimized for long endurance • Stronger, bigger, superior to Predator: higher endurance 27h (>24h for Predator), range 1900 km (>1250 km), flight ceiling 50,000 ft (>25,000 ft), • Weight 2200 kg (>500 kg for Predator) → able to carry more payload (communication equipment, fuel, missiles etc.) • Armament: 8x Hellfire missiles, or 4x Hellfire + 2x 500 lbs. (230 kg) GBU-12 Paveway II laser-guided bombs (or GBU-49 laser + GPS guidance) • Improved MTS-B (Multi-Spectral Targeting) • System: visual sensors, color and monochrome daylight TV cameras, shortwave infrared camera, laser designator - CHALLENGES: • Reaper's reliability: better than Predator's -- still worse than the reliability of manned aircraft • Predator: 13.7 Class A accidents per 100K flight hours, Reaper 3.17, F-16 1.96, F-15 1.47 • One armed Reaper lost control, flew across entire Afghanistan; US AF fighters located it and shot it down as it neared Tajikistan • Some analyst (and even DoD officials!): Remotely controlled UAVs are inherently less safe than manned aircrafts → • CHALLENGE! • • Not critical if military UAV crash occur in remote location... • but a problem when unmanned aircraft being included in civil air traffic, flights over urban areas! • MQ-9B Reaper ER (Sky Guardian): first Medium-altitude Long-endurance Remotely Piloted Aircraft System (MALE RPAS) certified for operation within civilian airspace, complying with European flight regulations → No flights will be autonomous! Unmanned Surface and Underwater Vehicles - The battlefield as a large developmental laboratory → rapid development of surface unmanned vehicles in Ukraine - Most well-known example: February 1st, group of satellite- guided USVs launched an attack on the rocket corvette Ivano vets - The Russian ship sustained heavy damage, sunk afterwards - Images right: Ukrainian USV MAGURA V5 boats, and Russian guided-missile corvette Ivano vets (displacement: 500 t) - Price of USVs 100x lower than the price of corvette - USVs as a means by which the weaker side threatens the stronger one (balancing the odds) - Large joint European projects - marked by challenges, delays, and numerous compromises. - The most prominent example: Euro drone (MALE UAV) - France, Germany, Italy and Spain launched the medium-altitude long-endurance remotely piloted aircraft system (MALE 2020) program, later: Euro drone, back in August 2016 - The idea: to jointly fill the gap in ISR capabilities with ITAR-free technology - (ITAR = International Traffic in Arms Regulations, a US regulatory regime to restrict and control the export of defense and military related technologies U.S. foreign policy objectives) to safeguard U.S. national security and further - EURODRONE Idea: to gain independence from the US and the other non-EU producers European Industry - Ready for the Future? - The four countries all had some experience with MALE systems - and bad experience with the ITAR regime • Italy among the users of the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper and MQ-1 Predator, had deployed them in the Middle East and received Congress's authorization to mount AGM-114 Hellfire missiles. • France already had the General Atomics MQ-9 Reaper in its inventory for a couple of years • Spain ordered a batch of Reapers • Germany had several years of experience with the Israel Aerospace Industries Heron TP, in use in Afghanistan under a lease agreement - Able to carry out intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition and reconnaissance (ISTAR) missions - Endurance: 30 hours, service ceiling: 13.7 km, 500 km/h maximum speed - Length of 17 m, wingspan of 30 m, 50% larger than the MQ-9 Reaper - CHALLENGE: LONG DEVELOPMENT, BEHIND SCHEDULE: - According to the latest information available, the first prototype scheduled for 2024, the first flight tests in 2027, and first deliveries likely at 2029 or later - WHY BEHIND SCHEDULE? • The program behind schedule due to fundamental disagreements in core technical features (propulsion and armament and on the final costs) • Germany wants the system to be used above its national territory pushed for the twin- turboprops for safety reasons → safety indeed higher, but also the mass 11 tones! • For comparison: Reaper only 4.5 tones. • France wants it primarily deploy it in Africa, criticizing, the systems' obesity" • Armament: only after long discussions, Berlin agreed on a system with strike capabilities - Euro drone: Gigantic UAV, numerous possibilities, BUT ALSO: costly, complex, easily detectable - Many analysts: might become superfluous by the time it finally becomes ready - European industry: • 1. Has a great potential, particularly in the realm of producing tactical UAVs • 2. BUT: Delay behind the largest non-European players (US, China, Russia...) • 3. Catching the pace in recent years: increased defense expenditures, a faster pace of new equipment procurement - Currently, several pathways for the development of unmanned vehicles seem highly probable (not certain!): • 1. Large UAVs (Medium Altitude Long Endurance - MALE and HALE)  could become less appealing acquisitions in highly contested airspace • 2. Miniature, inexpensive drones offer many possibilities, at low cost  However: highly susceptible to electronic warfare measures  This issue critical as enemy enhances its EW capabilities • Small/tactical UAVs could provide the optimal solution:  not as large and easily detectable as MALE and HALE UAVs  do not justify the engagement of costly air defense systems  however: still large enough to accommodate robust communication equipment (EW resistant)  useful: ISR missions, artillery fire correction, even attack on highly valuable targets • Additional benefits: every country has the opportunity to develop its own tactical UAV, and thus:  Being independent, not relying on collaboration with other partners  Investing in its own industry  Tailoring the characteristics of one or more types of UAVs according to the national priorities - At this moment, it seems: quantity > quality - The U.S. Department of Defense announced the procurement of thousands of drones to counter adversary's superiority in the number of soldiers - "Replicator Initiative" - Expendable, easily replaceable, relatively low cost - In all domains - Preferably: autonomous systems - Driven by Artificial Intelligence (swarms?)