The EU'S Common Security And Defense Policy (CSDP) In The Light Of National Defense Policies

The EU'S Common Security And Defense Policy (CSDP) In The Light Of National Defense Policies Presented by: Prof. Dr. Molnár Date: 7 March 2024 New Model Of World Order - Power Competition - Josef Borell (2021) • “Over the last three decades, we have seen a rapid transformation in the distribution of power around the world. We went from a bipolar configuration between 1945 and 1989 to a unipolar configuration between 1989 and 2008, before entering in what we today could call 'complex multipolarity.” - - Complex Multipolar World • West (US, EU, UK + partners in the Indo-Pacific region) • China • Russia Timeline • -1945  Multipolar  WW1, WW2 • 1945-1989/1991  Bipolar  Cold War • 1989/1991-2008/2014  Unipolar  Wars in Iraq  EU  NATO • 2008/2014 Multipolar  2008 financial crisis  2014 OCCUP. of Crimea  Rise of China  War in Ukraine 2022: "Europe in danger: what next for EU security and defense?" - Speech by High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell - Europe is in danger • Gap between expectations and results: 'alphabet soup • Europeans must learn 'to speak the language of power' • An unprecedented number of conflicts at or beyond our borders • The weaponization of everything: migrants, vaccines, energy, technology standards are all tools for political competition. • 'The multilateral system' is weakened • Geographic power shift, from West to East, from the Atlantic world to the Indo Pacific.  And a functional power shift, away from governments. • - Aggressive competition among states. 77% of respondents are in favor of "a common defense and security policy among EU Member States" From EDC to CSDP - 1950s • European Defense Community  Failed to be launched - 1970s • - European Political Cooperation 1980s • Single European Act  EPC was institutionalized - 1992 • Common Foreign & Security Policy  by Maastricht Treaty - 1997 • - 2000s • - Amsterdam Treaty, Mr. CFSP From ESDP to CSDP 2007 • Lisbon Treaty The idea of EDU - 2007, 2009 • - Treaty of Lisbon 2009 • Resolution of the EP (Council of Defense Ministers and the development of Synchronized Armed Forces Europe) - 2013 • - 2015 • - EP resolution on the creation of EDU 2016 • - Juncker's announcement: EU Army 2016 • - European Council EU Global Strategy Article 42 (2), „The common security and defense policy shall include the progressive framing of a common Union defense policy. This will lead to a common defense, when the European Council, acting unanimously, so decides." 2017. Reflection Paper on the Future of European Defense - The foundations of a ESDU are gradually being built - The ESDU 'should encourage a stronger alignment of strategic cultures, as well as a common understanding of threats and appropriate responses. - It will require: • Joint decision-making and action • - Greater financial solidarity at European level' September 2017, • Jean-Claude Juncker, in his annual speech on the State of the European Union expressed that by 2025 the EU needed to become a fully-fledged European Defense Union. - In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen proposed to create a European Defense Union by 2025 and to lead a 'geopolitical Commission' - 2020, Josep Borrell (HR/VP) stated that the EU needs to 'learn the language of power'. - 2020, State of the Union speech by Ursula von der Leyen did not mention the establishment of an ESDU or strategic autonomy - The process continues: MSs governments and institutions put together the first threat analysis, in a two-year process, that led to the Strategic Compass. - May 2021, Idea of an initial entry force in FAC (Defense) - 2022, Strategic Compass (Council of the EU): strategic autonomy - 2023, European Defense Agency's annual conference, Ursula von der Leyen: „The European Union should go towards a fully-fledged 'European Defense Union" - 2024, at the Munich Security Conference, Ursula von der Leyen: "If I would be the president of the next European Commission, I would have a commissioner for defense," Conceptual Framework - EU as real security actor and provider • European sovereignty • Strategic autonomy • Resilience Turning Point – 2016 - Security threats to and within the EU • Russian aggression in Ukraine since 2014 • The migration-refugee crisis in 2015 • Have intensified and acted as an incentive to strengthen the EU's defense and increase cooperation with NATO - In 2015, report prepared by Javier Solana and Jaap de Hoop Scheffer • - A European Defense Union (EDU) as the ultimate goal of integration In 2016 referendum on the Brexit and the U.S. presidential election • Gave a new impetus  To strengthen EU defense policy  And, consequently, the EU-NATO relationship. - NATO and the EU were forced by the weakening of multilateralism and the return to great-power politics • To bolster their positions as international security actors. Mapping National Defense Policies Regarding European Strategic Autonomy - The concept of EDU has been promoted mainly by EU institutions and not mentioned by MSs' strategic documents - MSs' views on the concept of ESA • The assessment of secondary literature • The analysis of the latest national security strategic documents (NSS) - 1. The NSSs of the first group mention ESA as a priority - 2. Another group have developed the concept of OSA - 3. In the documents of the third group neither the ESA nor the OSA are mentioned • Representing a more trans Atlanticists view on security and defense. Big Four Countries - France • Emmanuel Macron has become the most important political supporter of European strategic autonomy and European sovereignty. • The promotion of European strategic autonomy is one of the ten priorities of the French National Strategic Review (2022) - Germany • First comprehensive national security strategy in 2023 (Robust. Resilient. Comprehensive. Integrated Security for Germany). • European integration is seen first of all as a peace project. • The text does not mention explicitly European strategic autonomy or European sovereignty • Strengthening the European Union's ability to act is one of the main interests of Germany. • To strengthen the European pillar of NATO and further develop the CFSP and CSDP. - Italy • Multi-Year Defense Planning Document for 2023-2025 (2023) • to strengthen the initiatives and operations of the EU CSDP, supporting its ambition of growing strategic autonomy • ESA is seen as a complementary tool for national end European security, and not as a tool for decreasing the dependence on Trans-Atlantic relations - Spain • NSS in 2021, • Spain has a more comprehensive view on ESA: • "Spain is committed to greater European strategic autonomy, combining the promotion of the CSDP and the area of freedom, security and justice with the improvement of health security, progress in energy union or the greater role of the European Union in the management of cross- border crises are also part of the broad spectrum of policies aimed at strengthening European security and the role of the Union as a global actor". Open Strategic Autonomy - Spain and Poland, but also the Netherlands, East-Central European, Baltic, Scandinavian countries and Portugal have expressed criticism regarding the concept of ESA or European Sovereignty - • For potential promotion of protectionism, • For undermining the transatlantic alliance and the NATO • For this reason, these MSs have proposed the concept of OSA. 2021, Spain with the Netherlands published a non-paper on the idea of open OSA - 2021, 12 EU Member States, led by Denmark and consisting of Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, Ireland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Malta and Spain - • Have prepared a joint non-paper on open strategic autonomy • Emphasizing the importance of the EU's openness to trade and investment. 2023, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands, Portugal and Slovakia prepared another joint non-paper about OSA • “A geopolitically fragmented world demands a strong and resilient Union that is able to safeguard and promote its core interests, strive for a rules- based, open and interconnected economy and champion multilateralism and international cooperation. The concept of OSA was introduced to achieve just that.” Conclusions - Member States have different interests and views on the concepts. - EU has launched several initiatives to strengthen European defense capabilities and autonomy (PESCO, CARD, EFD, MPCC, EPF, RDC). - However, in terms of size and ambitions, none of these developments has fully met the initial high expectations. - NATO is stronger than ever - CSDP - European pillar of NATO? - “EU can help develop full-spectrum forces that will enable European countries to contribute more to territorial defense in the context of NATO.” Tocci 2023