Climate Changes In The Penal Field Between The Global North And The Global South

Climate Changes In The Penal Field Between The Global North And The Global South Presented by: Mr. Brandariz Date: October 6, 2021 An Elysian Moment? - Prominent penal change spreading across global north regions since late 2000s • Many authors have downplayed relevance of this shift (Beckett, Reosti & Knaphus 2016; De Giorgi 2015; Gottschalk 2015; s. also Goodman, Page & Phelps 2017; Schoenfeld 2018) • Others describe it as 'Elysian moment' (Chacón 2015) → Evidence of climate change in penal field (Brown 2018; Karstedt, Bergin & Koch 2019) - Leaving aside prisoner release policies in framework of pandemic (Aebi and Tiago 2020b; Sharma et al. 2020; Widra 2021) → There are good reasons to agree with description - OECD nations → Chile (23.4%) (Wilenmann 2020), Israel (26%), Japan (33.3%), Mexico (21.2%) (2008-2018) - EU countries → Bulgaria (18.9%), Croatia (28.2%), Cyprus - (23.4%), Estonia (33.7%), Finland (25.4%), Germany (15.4%), Latvia (38.8%), Luxembourg (23.3%), the Netherlands (23.2%) (Boone, Pakes & van Wingerden 2020), Romania (↓18.9%), Spain (19.7%), (Brandariz 2017) Sweden (↓20%) (20082019) (s. Aebi & Tiago, 2018, 2020) - Prison drop particularly salient in Eastern European jurisdictions → Former Soviet bloc (Dünkel 2017; Slade 2017) • In addition to Estonia and Latvia → Belarus (25.1%), Georgia (46.9%), Kazakhstan (33.9%), Russia (37.4%), and Ukraine (59.5%) also experienced remarkable drops in incarceration rates (2008-2018) (source: UNODC data) - US prison system→ US incarceration rate 15% (2007-2018) (source: Bureau of Justice Statistics) • 'Late mass incarceration' scenario (Seeds, 2017) → Incarceration rates ↓>30% in 11 US states (2008-2019) (source: Bureau of Justice Statistics; s. also Brown 2018; Karstedt, Bergin & Koch 2019; Platt 2018) - Prison decline contrasts with previous upward trend - Wide geographical areas affected → Much more than low profile shift circumscribed to handful of exceptional national cases - No global phenomenon → Incarceration rates escalated in Australia (↑34.1%), Indonesia (↑65.5%), Portugal (↑28.4%), Turkey (↑119.0%) (2008-2018) (sources: UNODC; SPACE I. Council of Europe) Penal Climate In South America - South America → Incarceration rates soared in Argentina (↑42.6%), Brazil (↑46.4%), Colombia (↑48.7%), Peru (186.8%) → More than doubled in Bolivia (↑110.5%), Paraguay (↑118.8%), Venezuela (↑123%), and Ecuador (↑163.9%) (2008-2018) (source: UNODC; s. Iturralde 2019; Sozzo 2017, 2018). Exploring Divergences In Penal Climate: The Crime Drop - The crime drop • US literature (Austin 2016; Aviram 2015; Clear & Frost 2014; Green 2015) and European literature (Boone, Pakes & van Wingerden 2020; Dünkel 2017; van Swaaningen 2013) → Influence of long-standing reduction of crime rates on current 'decarcerating' trend • Crime drop affects many jurisdictions (Farrell, Tilley & Tseloni 2014; Van Dijk, Tseloni & Farrell 2012; Tonry 2014) albeit unevenly (Currie 2015, 2018; LaFree, Curtis & McDowall 2015) • US → (registered) Violent crime rate 51.6%; (registered) property crime rate 59.0% (1991-2019) (source: FBI. Uniform Crime Reporting) - Europe → Crime drop particularly evident in field of lethal violence (Lappi-Seppälä & Lehti 2014) • Continent-wide homicide rate peaked >8 murders per 100,000 inhabitants (1993-1995, 2001-2002) → 2.8 (2018) (source: UNODC Data)  Especially relevant in Southern Europe & Eastern Europe • Both violent crime rates and property crime rates also manifestly declined in EU (2008-2018) (source: Eurostat)  Significant exception: sex crime rates - South America → No crime drop • High subcontinental homicide rate in 2018 (21.0 homicides/100,000 inhabitants) similar to homicide rates of early 1990s (source: UNODC) • Homicide rates conspicuously rose in Brazil, Uruguay & Venezuela (but Colombia, Ecuador & Paraguay) over last 3 decades • Both violent crime rates / property crime rates either levelled off or slightly increased continent-wide in last fifteen years (source: UNODC) Exploring Divergences In Penal Climate: Public Punitiveness - Public punitiveness • Global north → Long-lasting crime drop crucial in contributing to prison downsizing • Influencing way in which state agencies, media outlets, key social actors and the public collectively construct meaning of crime conflicts / contribute to shape hegemonic models of penalty (Garland 2018) • Enduring crime drop undermined robust nexus that associates escalating crime concerns with rising punitiveness and penal populism policies • US literature → Low rates of public punitiveness / fear of crime (Ramirez 2013) helped to enable prison population decline (Clear & Frost 2014; Green 2015; Krisberg 2016; Pfaff 2017; s. though Karstedt, Bergin & Koch 2019) • US → Crime seems to have lost former currency as critical public concern → Only 2.1% of surveyed individuals singled out crime and violence as most important problem faced by the US in last half of 2019 (source: Gallup) • EU → Percentage of surveyed EU residents considering crime as 1 of 2 most important issues faced by EU countries declined from 23.1% (2005-2009) to 10.9% (2015-2019) (source: Eurobarometer) • Stark contrast: South America → Crime concerns only began to recede in last years → Superseded by more urgent concerns • Crime concerns play much more pivotal role in South America than in global north countries (source: Latinobarómetro) Exploring Divergences In Penal Climate: Additional Concerns - Additional concerns • US → Crime concerns superseded by emerging concerns, e.g. migration phenomena (Clear 2008; Schoenfeld 2016) • Migration control increasingly performs same kind of social, political roles associated with (standard) penality • US & EU → Moral orders less based on crime, punishment than on racial, xenophobic stratifications (Aliverti 2020; Green 2015; Gundhus 2020) • US → Number of US residents considering immigration as most important problem began escalating in 2015, peaked in July 2019 (source: Gallup) • EU → Concerns over immigration peaked 2nd half of 2015, dwindled ever since (source: Eurobarometer) • However, → Percentage of surveyed individuals selecting immigration as 1 of 2 most important problems → 14.7% (2005-2009) 24.4% (2015-2019, well above crime concerns) - Immigration increasingly plays proxy role of 'condensation symbol' representing other social anxieties - South American scenario markedly different • Very low percentage of noncitizen residents (3.6% 2020) → With exception of countries particularly affected by Venezuelan exodus (Ávila 2018) e.g. Chile, Colombia, Peru, it has not significantly mounted in recent past (source: IOM) • Concerns over immigration play minor role in field of public fears → Do not overshadow crimes concerns Exploring Divergences In Penal Climate: (Slow) Crisis Of The War On Drugs - The crisis of the war on drugs • Vital part played by war on drugs in fueling punitive turn in last decades of 20th century (Alexander 2010; Clear & Frost 2014; Tonry 2004) • Significance of climate change in field of drugs in enabling prison population decline (Aviram 2015; Dagan & Teles 2016; Pfaff 2017)  Several countries, e.g. Uruguay and various US states, have begun to adopt promising decriminalization, harm reduction agenda (Drucker 2018; Mosher & Akins 2019) • New drug policy landscape → Impact on penal field: criminalization of drug markets is leaving behind former role as main engine of amplification of penal power • US → Percentage of state, federal prisoners sentenced for drug crimes dwindled 24.3% (2000) to 17.9% (2018) (source: Bureau of Justice Statistics) • EU → Percentage of prisoners sentenced for drug offences manifestly diminished in 13 EU+EFTA jurisdictions from late 2000s to late 2010s → especially, Croatia, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain & Switzerland (source: SPACE I. Council of Europe) - Penal climate in relation to drugs in South American countries • Indicators on drug seizures → Seizures of cocaine and its precursors and marijuana almost constantly on the rise in all South American jurisdictions over last two decades (source: UNODC) • Drug crime concerns are not particularly prominent in South America → They are not on the decline (source: Latinobarómetro) Conclusion - Further comparative research is needed to ascertain why South American nations have not followed path of penal moderation - However → Four aspects to be taken into consideration