Evidence From Legal Jobs In Britain And The United States

Future of Professional Work: Evidence From Legal Jobs In Britain And The United States Presented by: Mrs. Sako, Mr. Qian, and Mr. Attolini Date: 29 September 2021 Agenda - How is digital technology affecting the future of professional work? theory development - Data, methods, and key findings - Conclusion and ideas for further analyses Theory - Future Of Work (Economics) + System Of Professions (Sociology) Estimates of today's jobs "at risk of automation" range from 96%. Why such wide variation? - Arntz, M., Gregory, T., and Zierahn, U. (2016) The risk of automation for jobs in OECD countries, OECD, Paris. - Dellot, B., Mason, R., and Wallace-Stephens, F. (2020) The Four Futures of Work: Coping with Uncertainty in an Age of Radical Technologies. RSA, London. - Manyika, J. et al. (2017) A Future that Works: Al, Automation, Employment, and Productivity. McKinsey Global Institute. - Muro, M., Whiton, J., and Maxim, R. (2019) What jobs are affected by Al? Brookings Metropolitan Policy Program, Washington, D.C. Theory: bringing together Economic and Sociological - Economics: Future of Work • From jobs to tasks Technology Impact on Impact on creates need tasks job adverts for Substitution Job postings without automated Explanation Examples Machines replace human lawyers in specific tasks Junior associate jobs without highvolume tasks Digital Skills Job postings with digital skills For lawyersas- producers of digital technology Job postings without digital skills For lawyersas- consumers of digital technology Job postings (some with digital skills New tasks include checking for ethical use of Al Augmentation Creation - document review as a task Legal engineer jobs with knowledge of software package or coding language Senior associate jobs with clientfacing skills in M&A Legal jobs specifying certificates in relevant areas of expertise Sociology: System of Professions • Direct link to tasks: "The central organizing reality of professional life is control of tasks. The tasks themselves are defined in the professions' cultural work. Control over them is established ... by competitive claims in public, media, in legal discourse, and in workplace negotiations." (Abbott 1988: 84) • Focus on strength of professional control  More strongly organized a profession is, the more effective its claims to jurisdiction (i.e. link between a profession and its work)  This holds at the field level, and also at the workplace (organizational level). Hypotheses - H1: A greater proportion of job postings for lawyers and other legal professionals require digital skills when lawyers' professional control is stronger. • H1a: Greater in the regulated than in the unregulated sector in the UK (NOT SUPPORTED) • H1b: Greater in the US than in the UK (SUPPORTED) • H1c: Greater in the legal sector than in non-legal sectors in both the UK and the US (NOT SUPPORTED) - H2: A greater proportion of job postings for non-legal occupations require digital skills when lawyers' professional control is weaker. • H2a: Greater in the unregulated than in the regulated sector in the UK (NOT SUPORTED) • - H2b: Greater in the UK than in the US (NOT SUPPORTED) H3: Digital skills command a lower pay premium for licensed lawyers and other legal professionals when professional control is stronger. • H3a: Lower in the US than in the UK (SUPPORTED) • H3b: Lower in the legal sector than in non-legal sectors in both the UK and the US (SUPPORTED) Distribution Of Job Postings With Sector And Occupation Breakdowns Job postings for lawyers and judges Job postings for other legal professionals United Kingdom 195,275 211,810 Legal sector Non-legal sectors Total 426,526 191,065 Legal sector Non-legal sectors Total 295,737 373,163 407,085 United States 240,926 1,044,278 668,900 1,285,202 617,591 Job postings for non-legal employees Total 270,002 891,803 252,607 789,270 1,417,441 Conclusion - Our main contributions • Theoretical contribution: Combining the future of work and system of professions literatures • Enable hypothesis development to examine the impact of the strength of professional control on task bundling in jobs • - Test hypotheses using large database of job postings in two countries Further work planned • Qualitative evidence based on interviews with lawyers in law firms and alternative service providers to be incorporated • Regression analysis with approaches to deal with endogeneity