Economic Policies vs. Identity Politics - The Rise of a Right-wing, Nationalist Party in India (Figures)

Figure A1: Survey Districts and Sample Villages Panel A: Survey Districts Panel B: Location of GPs in Sample Notes: Our sample villages are from Hugli and Pashchim Medinipur, the districts in darker shade (in Panel A). In Panel B the red dots denote the location of our sample villages. Table A1: Predicting Poverty Index Landless Household Household Head less than primary school Female headed Household Occupation of Household Head: Labour Kuchha House Constant Sample Size R-squared (1) (2) -9,977.626*** (2,101.873) -10,067.128*** (2,664.820) -3,492.958 (4,027.951) -3,898.998* (1,973.744) -10,940.973*** (2,628.487) 66,435.195*** (2,822.976) -8,940.466*** (2,692.083) -9,231.994*** (2,839.659) -5,769.348 (3,960.015) -5,972.235*** (2,041.127) -13,836.728*** (2,761.813) 68,107.339*** (2,033.919) 3,507 0.025 3,507 0.056 Notes: Dependent variable: Average total household income during the period 2010–2013. Regression in column 2 includes village fixed effects. Standard errors, clustered at the village level in parentheses. Significance: ∗∗∗ p < 0.01,∗∗ p < 0.05,∗ p < 0.1. Table A2: First Stage Regression Results. 2014–2018 Male headed household SC household ST household Non Hindu household Recent Migrant household Non Hindu × Recent Migrant Household size Head married Head more than primary schooling Head occupation: cultivation Head occupation: labour Landless Landholding 0—0.5 acres Landholding 0.5—1.0 acres Swing voter household Hugli Resident C̄−j C̄−j × Male headed household C̄−j × SC household C̄−j × ST household C̄−j × Non Hindu household C̄−j × Recent Migrant household C̄−j × Non Hindu × Recent Migrant C̄−j × Household size C̄−j × Head married C̄−j × Head more than primary schooling State and Central Benefits Received State Benefits 2014–2018 (1) Central Benefits 2014–2018 (2) -8.888 (11.157) 12.073 (7.363) -2.040 (7.517) 0.731 (9.483) -23.610 (15.053) -21.511 (22.248) 0.190 (0.601) 1.338 (10.080) 0.708 (3.702) 13.178** (5.240) 13.719** (6.843) 7.105 (6.244) 6.256 (4.637) -0.713 (4.757) -1.339 (3.520) -25.077*** (1.067) 1.402 (6.021) 7.879* (4.111) 2.134 (3.808) -0.221 (4.976) 3.005 (4.599) -11.111 (10.383) -0.223 (0.327) 1.585 (4.607) -2.013 (1.743) 3.075 (2.923) 3.863 (3.767) 11.509*** (3.239) 11.185*** (2.840) 6.001** (2.612) -0.636 (1.761) 6.304*** (0.320) 11.241 (10.091) 10.149 (12.110) -12.032 (8.181) 1.765 (8.219) -0.838 (10.768) 27.796 (16.787) 18.916 (24.928) -0.212 (0.669) -1.835 (11.048) -1.037 (4.012) -22.465*** (4.939) -1.232 (6.585) -7.655* (4.581) -2.750 (4.155) 0.149 (5.610) -3.291 (5.068) 11.431 (11.527) 0.261 (0.362) -1.920 (5.009) 2.145 (1.911) Continued . . . First Stage Regression Results State and Central Benefits Received 2014–2018 (Continued) C̄−j × Head occupation: cultivation C̄−j × Head occupation: labour C̄−j × Landless C̄−j × Landholding 0—0.5 acres C̄−j × Landholding 0.5—1.0 acres C̄−j × Swing voter household S̄−j S̄−j × Male headed household S̄−j × SC household S̄−j × ST household S̄−j × Non Hindu household S̄−j × Recent Migrant household S̄−j × Non Hindu × Recent Migrant S̄−j × Household size S̄−j × Head married S̄−j × Head more than primary schooling S̄−j × Head occupation: cultivation S̄−j × Head occupation: labour S̄−j × S̄−j × Landholding 0—0.5 acres S̄−j × Landholding 0.5—1.0 acres S̄−j × Swing voter household Constant First Stage F State Benefits 2014–2018 (1) Central Benefits 2014–2018 (2) -14.097** (5.806) -14.835* (7.485) -6.641 (6.828) -6.946 (5.110) 0.473 (5.219) 1.341 (3.812) -3.089 (3.179) -3.901 (4.099) -12.409*** (3.516) -12.359*** (3.102) -6.515** (2.888) 0.466 (1.922) -32.519*** (2.457) 1.891 (2.782) -3.209* (1.837) 0.556 (1.851) -0.285 (2.197) 5.361 (3.623) 6.309 (5.372) -0.051 (0.144) -0.080 (2.488) -0.307 (0.928) -3.141 (1.269) -3.101* (1.690) -1.664 (1.541) -1.158 (1.138) 0.414 (1.174) 0.392 (0.876) 63.870*** (9.184) 3.874*** (1.102) -0.415 (1.478) -2.200** (1.002) -0.419 (0.934) 0.042 (1.161) -0.709 (1.127) 2.917 (2.605) 0.050 (0.079) -0.320 (1.146) 0.464 (0.429) -0.812 (0.722) -0.984 (0.929) -2.774*** (0.799) -2.603*** (0.696) -1.437** (0.632) 0.222 (0.435) 2.241 (4.420) 165.50 [0.000] 146.32 [0.000] Continued . . . First Stage Regression Results State and Central Benefits Received 2014–2018 (Continued) State Benefits 2014–2018 (1) Central Benefits 2014–2018 (2) Notes: First stage regression results for central and state benefits received by households during the period 2014–2018 presented. C̄−j and S̄−j denote the average number of central and state benefits received by households (during the period 2014–2018), excluding households in the same village. p-values associated with the F-statistics presented in square brackets. Standard errors, clustered at the village level in parentheses. Significance: ∗∗∗ p < 0.01,∗∗ p < 0.05,∗ p < 0.1. Table A3: First Stage Regression Results. State Benefits Received 2010–2013 State Benefits 2010–2013 (1) Male headed Household SC Household ST Household Non Hindu Household Recent Migrant Household Non Hindu × Recent Migrant Household Size Head married Head more than primary schooling Head occupation: cultivation Head occupation: labour Landless Landholding 0 –0.5 acres Landholding 0.5 – 1 acres Swing voter household Hugli resident S̄−j S̄−j × Male headed Household S̄−j × SC Household S̄−j × ST Household S̄−j × Non Hindu Household S̄−j × Recent Migrant Household S̄−j × Non Hindu × Recent Migrant S̄−j × Household Size S̄−j × Head married S̄−j × Head more than primary schooling S̄−j × Head occupation: cultivation 0.749 (0.625) 1.548* (0.806) -0.498 (0.309) -0.064 (0.364) -0.359 (1.178) 2.127 (1.944) 0.006 (0.038) -0.284 (0.504) 0.117 (0.244) 0.078 (0.254) -0.196 (0.409) 1.075*** (0.343) 0.841*** (0.251) 0.602** (0.280) -0.112 (0.292) -11.522*** (0.200) -0.670*** (0.016) -0.017 (0.011) -0.024* (0.013) 0.009 (0.005) 0.001 (0.006) 0.003 (0.019) -0.037 (0.031) 0.000 (0.001) 0.006 (0.009) -0.004 (0.004) 0.001 Continued . . . First Stage Regression Results State Benefits Received 2010–2013 (Continued) State Benefits 2010–2013 (1) S̄−j × Head occupation: labour S̄−j × Landless S̄−j × Landholding 0 – 0.5 acres S̄−j × Landholding 0.5 – 1 acres S̄−j × Swing voter household Constant First Stage F (0.005) 0.008 (0.007) -0.013** (0.006) -0.010** (0.004) -0.009* (0.005) 0.004 (0.006) 44.558** (0.964) 257.648 [0.00] Notes: First stage regression results for State Benefits Received 2010–2013 presented. S̄−j denote the average number of central and state benefits received by households (during the period 2010–2013), excluding households in the same village. p-values associated with the F-statistics presented in square brackets. Standard errors, clustered at the village level in parentheses. Significance: ∗∗∗ p < 0.01,∗∗ p < 0.05,∗ p < 0.1. Table A4: First Stage Regression Results. Change in State and Central Benefits Received 2014–2018 — 2010–2013 Male headed household SC household ST household Non Hindu household Recent Migrant household Non Hindu × Recent Migrant Household size Head married Head more than primary schooling Head occupation: cultivation Head occupation: labour Landless Landholding 0—0.5 acres Landholding 0.5—1.0 acres Swing voter household Hugli Resident ∆C̄−j ∆C̄−j × Male headed household ∆C̄−j × SC household ∆C̄−j × ST household ∆C̄−j × Non Hindu household ∆C̄−j × Recent Migrant ∆C̄−j × Non Hindu × Recent Migrant ∆C̄−j × Household size ∆C̄−j × Head married ∆C̄−j × Head more than primary schooling Change in State Benefits 2014–2018 — 2010–2013 (1) Change in Central Benefits 2014–2018 — 2010–2013 (2) -7.826 (5.939) 6.571* (3.339) -7.279 (4.745) -4.350 (5.637) -18.694** (8.970) -5.217 (12.612) 0.228 (0.374) 3.403 (6.241) 0.854 (2.469) 6.630** (2.933) 8.812** (3.839) 2.052 (4.896) 4.593 (3.010) -1.454 (3.764) -6.045* (3.559) -14.360*** (0.556) 0.391 (3.561) 2.056 (2.123) 1.019 (2.249) -0.614 (2.810) 1.194 (3.543) -4.916 (5.566) -0.220 (0.202) -0.158 (2.973) -0.956 (0.864) 2.392 (1.641) 1.541 (2.066) 5.655*** (1.766) 6.358*** (1.736) 2.694 (1.660) -0.475 (1.074) 5.804*** (0.230) 3.079 (7.493) 10.108 (7.894) -8.582** (4.274) 9.381 (6.180) 5.566 (7.649) 26.157** (11.809) 2.514 (16.934) -0.325 (0.497) -4.562 (8.271) -1.537 (3.237) -30.019*** (3.510) -0.277 (4.641) -1.936 (2.808) -1.649 (2.918) 0.644 (3.754) -1.527 (4.635) 6.056 (7.458) 0.296 (0.266) 0.074 (3.824) 1.130 (1.153) Continued . . . First Stage Regression Results. Change in State and Central Benefits Received 2014–2018 — 2010–2013 (Continued) ∆C̄−j × Head occupation: cultivation ∆C̄−j × Head occupation: labour ∆C̄−j × Landless ∆C̄−j × Landholding 0—0.5 acres ∆C̄−j × Landholding 0.5—1.0 acres ∆C̄−j × Swing voter household ∆S̄−j ∆S̄−j × Male headed household ∆S̄−j × SC household ∆S̄−j × ST household ∆S̄−j × Non Hindu household ∆S̄−j × Recent Migrant household ∆S̄−j × Non Hindu × Recent Migrant ∆S̄−j × Household size ∆S̄−j × Head married ∆S̄−j × Head more than primary schooling ∆S̄−j × Head occupation: cultivation ∆S̄−j × Head occupation: labour ∆S̄−j × Landless ∆S̄−j × Landholding 0—0.5 acres ∆S̄−j × Landholding 0.5—1.0 acres ∆S̄−j × Swing voter household Constant First Stage F Change in State Benefits 2014–2018 — 2010–2013 (1) Change in Central Benefits 2014–2018 — 2010–2013 (2) -8.317** (3.825) -11.051** (5.000) -2.222 (6.369) -6.363 (3.943) 1.391 (4.906) 7.766* (4.644) -2.877 (2.124) -1.700 (2.669) -7.034*** (2.274) -8.188*** (2.244) -3.362 (2.168) 0.412 (1.388) -35.862*** (3.001) 4.049 (3.071) -3.380* (1.926) 3.687 (2.507) 2.114 (2.686) 8.973* (4.661) 5.403 (6.560) -0.121 (0.191) -1.429 (3.190) -0.515 (1.307) -3.441** (1.557) -4.480** (2.078) -0.696 (2.593) -1.483 (1.596) 1.475 (1.991) 3.197* (1.840) 27.312*** (5.619) 2.720** (1.362) -0.355 (1.875) -1.600 (1.130) -0.302 (1.183) 0.354 (1.370) -0.594 (1.878) 2.768 (3.053) 0.109 (0.104) 0.231 (1.618) 0.444 (0.442) -1.369 (0.871) -0.867 (1.099) -2.901*** (0.946) -3.071*** (0.916) -1.364 (0.865) 0.416 (0.577) 11.590*** (2.612) 278.90 [0.000] 114.69 [0.000] Continued . . . First Stage Regression Results. Change in State and Central Benefits Received 2014–2018 — 2010–2013 (Continued) Change in State Benefits 2014–2018 — 2010–2013 (1) Change in Central Benefits 2014–2018 — 2010–2013 (2) Notes: First stage regression results for change in central and state benefits received by households between period 2014–2018 and 2010–2013 presented. ∆C̄−j and ∆S̄−j denote the change in the average number of central and state benefits received by households (during the period 2014–2018), excluding households in the same village. p-values associated with the F-statistics presented in square brackets. Standard errors, clustered at the village level in parentheses. Significance: ∗∗∗ p < 0.01,∗∗ p < 0.05,∗ p < 0.1.