Inverse Methods - Examples 2

Optimal estimation of regional N2O emissions using a three-dimensional global model Data: AGAGE : (MHD) = Mace Head, Ireland; (THD) = Trinidad Head, California, USA; (SMO) = American Samoa; (CGO) = Cape Grim, Tasmania, Australia; real time measurements CMDL (HATS): (ALT) = Alert, Northwest Territories, Canada; (BRW) = Point Barrow, Alaska, USA; (CGO) = Cape Grim, Tasmania, Australia; (KUM) = Kumukahi, Hawaii, USA; (MLO) = Mauna Loa, Hawaii, USA; (NWR) = Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA; (SPO) = South Pole, Antarctica; (SMO) = American Samoa; flask measurements CMDL (CCGG): 35 sites over the globe, flask measurements NIES: Hateruma, Japan., flask measurements CSIRO: India (CRI), Australia (CFA), flasks CSIR: South Africa (CPT), flasks Data comparison Data comparison, contd. Kalman Filter MATCH: 1.8º x 1.8º (T62) 28 Vertical (sigma) levels: 1000 to 2.9mb 30 minute time-step (SemiLagrangian or mass conserving SPITFIRE) NCEP Reanalysis Meteorology Chemical Studies Include: Rn, CCl3F, SF6,Ozone, Sulfur Chemistry, Aerosols, Dust Conclusions • • • • Global oceanic sources decrease slightly from 26% (GEIA, 1995) to 22%; Southern oceanic sources decease substantially from 12% to 0.6% while the tropical oceans increases from 10% to 19% South Asia sources are almost doubled compared to the bottom up method (GEIA, 1995), could be due to the increased soil fertilization in this area and still ongoing deforestation. By semi-hemisphere, southern extra-tropical sources decrease from 14% to 3% largely due to the big oceanic source reduction in this area; while the northern tropical N2O sources increase from 34 to 58% USING A LAGRANGIAN 3D MODEL TO CHECK INDUSTRY REPORTS OF EMISSIONS OF CFC REPLACEMENT GASES (1) AGAGE high frequency GC-MS measurements in MaceHead, Ireland (2) 3D U.K. Met. Office NAME Lagrangian Model (3) Estimate European country and regional emissions Estimated Concentrations of HFC-134a and HCFC-141b Compared to observations (Ireland) using inverse (top down) emissions Image removed due to copyright considerations. See Figure 8. Simmonds, P. G., S. O’Doherty, J. Huang, R. Prinn, R. G. Derwent, D. Ryall, G. Nickless, and D. Cunnold (1998), Calculated trends and the atmospheric abundance of 1,1,1,2tetrafluoroethane, 1,1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane, and 1-chloro-1,1difluoroethane using automated in-situ gas chromatography-mass spectrometry measurements recorded at Mace Head, Ireland, from October 1994 to March 1997, J. Geophys. Res., 103 (D13), 16,029–16,038. NAME MODEL: EUROPEAN HCFC & HFC EMISSIONS Three year rolling average NAME-derived and industry estimates of European HCFC & HFC emissions in kilo-ton per year. Gas HCFC22 HCFC141b HCFC142b HFC134a Data Source 19951997 1996-1998 NAME - - Industry 38 NAME 1997-1999 19982000 1999-2001 1999-2001 (method 1) (method 2) - - 27 28 40 41 41 41 - 8 9 12 13 8 7 Industry 10 11 12 13 13 - NAME 8 8 12 6 6 4 Industry 10 11 11 11 11 - NAME 7 8 12 13 11 11 Industry 7 11 15 19 23 -