Global Climate Change - Economics, Science and Politics Introduction and Overview

Global Climate Change: Economics, Science and Policy • Introductions – Faculty, teaching assistants, administration – The class (SSM, ESD, EAPS, other?) • Why climate . . . & the challenge • Content & materials • Course details • How to think about the problem Why Climate? • The scale of potential change • The vulnerability of particular societies, sectors, and ecosystems • The momentum of the economic system producing greenhouse gases – Importance policy for many industries • The intellectual and political challenge THE CONFLICT BETWEEN ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT Energy Food Transportation Manufacturing Urban Development Population Growth Potable Water Human Health Climate Change Urban Air Pollution Water Quality Land Degradation Ecosystem Disruption Waste Disposal THE CLIMATE ISSUE EXEMPLIFIES THE CHALLEGE FOR SUSTAINING A HABITABLE EARTH 1998 & 2005 are the WARMEST YEARS TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN THE INDUSTRIAL AGE NASA GISS, 2006 ARCTIC is WARMING MUCH FASTER than the GLOBAL AVERAGE VULNERABLE SYSTEMS AT HIGH LATITUDES September 1979 DEPLETION OF ARCTIC SUMMER SEA ICE STABILITY OF WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET September 2003 STABILITY OF ARCTIC TUNDRA & PERMAFROST Why Climate? • The scale of potential change • The vulnerability of particular societies, sectors, and ecosystems • The momentum of the economic system producing greenhouse gases – Importance of policy for many industries • The intellectual and political challenge The Intellectual and Political Challenge • • • • • • Many natural/social/behavioral sciences Complexity of the human-climate system A many-nation “commons” problem Long time horizons & irreversible effects Uncertainty (but possible learning) Intersection with other issues – North-South equity concerns – Energy, transport, land use, taxes, trade Course Content • Origin and history of the course – MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change – Materials – “Toy” integrated system model • Homework sets & team project • Classroom style, and preparation • Structure of the class sessions – Mondays vs. Wednesdays – Science . . . economics . . . politics Course Organization 2/12 Institutions 2/19 Natural Science Background/economics 2/26 3/5 Background/science Social Science/policy 3/12 Integration 3/19 3/26 Holiday 4/2 4/9 4/16 4/23 4/30 5/7 5/14 Background/uncertainty Materials • Readings – Packet to purchase, ($30) • Today . . . and Monday – Hand-outs (Joint Program reports & other) – Material on the web (mit.edu/globalchange) – Keep an eye on the news! • Computer needs – “Toy” IGSM in the Sloan Computer Lab – Excel or other worksheet program Other Details • Credits: 3-0-6 • Prerequisites . . . & auditors • Class schedule – Mon.: 3:00 to 5:00 – Wed.: 3:00 to 4:00 (3:00 to 5:00 on May 12) – WILL meet on Wed., March 21 (Sloan trips) • Grading • Questions? HOW HAVE GLOBAL TEMPERATURES CHANGED OVER THE PAST CENTURY (1906-2005), AND WHY? o 0.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 1940 1980 Year 2020 -0.5 1.0 South America 0.5 0.0 0.5 -0.5 -1.0 1900 1940 1980 Year -0.5 -1.5 1900 1940 1980 Year 2020 1940 1980 Year 2020 Global Land 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1940 Year 1980 2020 2020 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1900 1940 Year 1980 Australia 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1900 1940 Year 1980 2020 Global Ocean 1.0 2020 Temperature Anomaly (oC) -1.0 1900 o Temperature Anomaly ( C) o Temperature Anomaly ( C) 0.0 0.0 Global 1900 0.5 -0.5 1.0 -1.0 Africa 1.0 1.0 o 2020 1940 1980 Year Temperature Anomaly (oC) -1.0 1900 Asia -0.5 -1.0 1900 Temperature Anomaly ( C) 1.0 Temperature Anomaly (oC) o Temperature Anomaly ( C) North America Temperature Anomaly (oC) Temperature Anomaly ( C) Europe 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1900 1940 1980 Year 2020 Figure by MIT OCW, based on REF: Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change. Black lines:observed changes. Blue bands: range for 19 model simulations using natural forcings. Red bands: range for 51 model simulations using natural and human forcings. HOW CAN WE EXPRESS THE VALUE OF A CLIMATE POLICY UNDER UNCERTAINTY? What would we Compared with buy with STABILIZATION NO POLICY of CO2 at 550 ppm? NEW WHEEL lower odds of EXTREMES