Global Climate Change - Economics, Science, and Pol Policy Exercise

ANALYSIS TO INFORM INTERNATIONAL DISCUSSIONS UNDER THE FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE A. THE CONTEXT The nations that are members of the MOP are engaged in putting the Kyoto agreement into force for the first commitment period, which begins 1 January 2008.. It is generally agreed, however, that the fragmentation of the international regime—with the US, Australia and Non-Annex B parties remaining outside—must be overcome. Under pressure from Congress and the public the US Administration has declared its willingness to participate in the search for a way forward toward a renewed or revised international climate agreement. A key unresolved issue underlying any future negotiations is the definition of the stabilization target under FCCC Article 2, and possible ways of achieving it. All the nations agree that stabilization cannot be achieved without accession by key developing countries, as well as participation by all of the larger developed ones. Indeed, the lack of provision developing was one justification for US rejection of the Kyoto targets. The FCCC parties including the US have agreed to participate in an extension of the seminars initiated in COP-12 to be focused on exploration of possible paths to atmospheric stabilization. The target to be used as the basis for this discussion is 550 ppmv CO2, and the parties have further agreed to propose a set of plans for the relative mitigation effort to be expected of different countries or regions, and the timing. These plans are to be presented as a starting point for the discussions—the only requirement being that each proposal meet the agreed stabilization objective AND that there be a clear description of its characteristics and the logic/arguments behind it. The international discussion will start with a presentation by individual nations/groups of their proposal for emissions targets, and perhaps the role of permit trading and other transactions among parties. You are divided into five teams with the task of preparing your country, group or organization for these discussions. The task comes in two parts. B1. COUNTRY TEAMS You are citizens of one of the following nations or regional groups participating in this international discussion: the US, the EU and China. Your team constitutes an InterAgency (or Inter-Ministry) Task-Force which has been assigned the task of developing a proposal to be carried to the seminar. The proposal will be presented to the official(s) identified below, and used in internal government deliberation in deciding an approach and, as appropriate, for public information. Part 1. Prepare a brief note (2 to 3 pages) summarizing the following aspects of your country or multi-national group, as they relate to climate negotiations. A. Identify the key government officials (their titles, not their individual names), who likely will be involved in the international seminar, and for whom a proposal and Climate Change Policy Exercise p. 2 supporting analysis will be useful? (This is the client for whom you are preparing in Part 2). B. Summarize the key internal interests that have to be considered in the formulation of a national (or EU-wide) position in these discussions, and the main tensions that likely will arise. C. Identify the main areas of policy formulation, other than climate change, that are likely to be relevant to the internal decisions, and the external negotiating position of your country or group. Note: You are expected to base your answer to Part 1 mainly on the knowledge that already exists within your team about your country or multi-national group. This note is due in class on Wednesday, April 25. Part 2. Prepare a century-scale proposal, with supporting analysis, for your country/group to carry to the international seminar. Issues of particular importance include the following: • Ways that overall national/regional commitments might be defined over time. • The implications of any plan for your nation/region in the near term (say 10-20 years) and in the long term. Factors that may figure in your analysis and recommendations include the following: • Domestic interests and political pressures within your own nation or region, and • Pressures for equitable sharing of burdens among nations. • Uncertainties in the economics and science, and in the valuation of climate change impacts. B2. FCCC SECRETARIAT TEAM You are staff members of the FCCC Secretariat. You have been assigned the task of preparing a Chairman’s Draft of a possible long-term plan to meet 550 ppmv, as a “neutral” input to the seminar. Part 1. Prepare a brief note (2 to 3 pages) summarizing the following aspects of the coming negotiations, as preliminary step to preparing the Chairman’s draft. A. Identify the half-dozen or so key nations, regional groups, or coherent interest groups whose agreement will be essential to success in discussing such a plan for long-term stabilization. B. Summarize those aspects of the seminar discussions that are likely to prove the most troublesome barriers to agreement. C. List the main overlapping issues that are likely to be relevant to national positions in these negotiations. Climate Change Policy Exercise p. 3 Part 2. The task of the Chairman’s Draft is to facilitate the seminar discussion by starting the negotiations at a point as close as possible to a possible to a plan that might be widely acceptable. The proposal should recommend ways that national/regional commitments might be defined. Factors that may figure in your analysis include the following: • Tradeoffs between the costs of emissions reduction and the potential impacts of climate change, • Uncertainties in the economics and science, and in the valuation of climate change impacts, • Domestic interests and political pressures within the various nations or regions, • The need for equitable sharing of burdens among nations, • Non-climate interests and political pressures that will be brought to bear in the negotiations.