University:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Course:
15.501/516 | Accounting
Academic year:

2023
Views:

66

Pages:

8
Author:

Haven Mcclure

Integrated Assessment III: Adaptation and Geoengineering • What level of control is likely? • Anticipatory adaptation – What opportunities? • Geoengineering – Methods and costs – International institutions What Level of Control Is Likely? 25 IGSM_Level1 IGSM_Level2 IGSM_Level3 IGSM_Level4 IGSM_REF 20 5% 400ppm CO2e 95% 450ppm CO2e 550ppm CO2e 650ppm CO2e 750ppm CO2e 10 o o o o 0C o o 3C 2C 1C 5C 4C 5 Eventual Temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 1,600 Energy Reduction Non-Biomass Renewables Nuclear Commercial Biomass Coal: w/ CCS Coal: w/o CCS Natural Gas: w/ CCS Natural Gas: w/o CCS Oil: w/ CCS Oil: w/o CCS 1,400 2000 IGSM_Level1 1600 IGSM_Level2 1,200 IGSM_Level3 1,000 IGSM_Level4 1200 EJ/yr $/tonne (2000$) GtC/yr 15 IGSM 800 800 Biomass 600 400 400 0 200 2020 2040 2060 Year 2080 CCS 2100 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Anticipatory Adaptation (vs. natural economic adjustment) Climate Damage Property Primary Sectors Other Sectors Protecton Agriculture Energy Mortality/morbidity Wetlands Ocean circulations Dryland loss Forestry Water Amenity Species loss Antarctic Ice Sheet Fisheries Transport Migration Tourism Human Well Being Ecosystem Loss Disaster Risk Severe storms Anthropogenic Climate Modification Energy balance Inadvertent Climate Modification Geoengineering Short-wave (albedo) Energy transport Long-wave (emissivity) Ocean Atmosphere & Land Surface Space-based scatterers Atmospheric scatterers Land surface albedo modification Ocean fertilization Terrestrial ecosystem carbon capture Geochemical sequestration Ecosystem productivity enhancement by genetic modification Large dams: Gibralter or Bering straits Iceberg transport Chemical or physical control of evaporation Hydrological engineering Weather control Modification of surface roughness Sulphuric and carbonaceous aerosols: Direct and indirect effects Surface albedo change: Clearing forests Built structures: Cities & roads ... Radiatively active gases: CO2 CH4 N2O2 etc Secondary effects of land use change: e.g., salinity changes in Atlantic due to increased evaporation in Mediterranean Hydrological modification Modification of surface roughness Ocean thermal energy conversion Surface Nitrate (uM) (world ocean atlas) Surface Chlorophyll (mg/m3) (SeaWiFS) HIGH NITRATE – LOW CHLORPHYLL REGIONS Biogeochemical Cycles in the Ocean (e.g. P, N, C) air-sea exchange detritus remineralize recycling sink dissolved inorganic (nutrient) export remineralize POM deep ocean dissolved inorganic (nutrient) euphotic zone biological uptake Cost & Risks • Costs per ton of carbon removed (Keith) – Iron fertilization – Scattering aerosols – Solar shield • Risks & other effects – Ocean CO2 – Weather – Other $1-10/tC ≅ $1/tC ≅ $1/tC Politics & Institutions • International architecture for implementation – Existing treaties – Simpler than mitigation? – Moral hazard? • International control/management of R&D – – –