Introduction to the Toy IGSM (MS and JC)

MUMAH ACSIY~S Y wmj ,-,,nd af&r ~ h esum,,,. d agrku~hrse &Xtqmtm: wt carbon exchange, net ruz,rln4,ru,n20,~rr, su, nn3, mm EARTH SY5TEM & Dynrmlcal Processes 3 - O h t ~ l m aDynarnks, l B l d o g k a l C Iwmlmldk IFI hX@SMS Countries, Regions, Sectors and Substances in the EPPA Model Sectors Country or Region Factors Developed Non-Energy Capital United States (USA) Services (SERV) Labor Canada (CAN) Energy-Intensive Products (EINT) Land Japan (JPN) Other Industries Products (OTHR) Crude Oil Resources European Union+ [a] (EUR) Transportation (TRAN) Shale Oil Resources Australia & New Zealand (ANZ) Agriculture (AGRI) Natural Gas Resources Former Soviet Union [b] (FSU) Energy Coal Resources Eastern Europe [c] (EET) Coal (COAL) Hydro Resources Developing Conventional Crude Oil (OIL) Nuclear Resources Wind & Solar Resources India (IND) Oil from Shale (SOIL) China (CHN) Liquid Fuel from Biomass (BOIL) Indonesia (IDZ) Refined Oil (ROIL) Higher Income East Asia [d] (ASI) Natural Gas (GAS) Mexico (MEX) Gas from Coal (SGAS) Central & South America (LAM) Electric: Fossil (ELEC) Middle East (MES) Electric: Hydro (HYDR) Africa (AFR) Electric: Nuclear (NUCL) Rest of World [e] (ROW) Electric: Solar and Wind (SOLW) Electric: Biomass (BIOM) Electric: Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) Electric: NGCC with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (GGCAP) Electric: Integrated Gas Combined Cycle with Sequestration (IGCAP) Emissions of Climate Relevant Substances Substances Sources CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, SF6, PFCs, CFCs, CO, NOx, SOx, VOCs, black carbon, organic carbon, NH3 Combustion of refined oil, coal, gas, biofuels and biomass burning, manure, soils, paddy rice, cement, land fills, and industrial production. [a] The European Union (EU-15) plus countries of the European Free Trade Area (Norway, Switzerland, Iceland). [b] Russia and Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. [c] Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia. [d] South Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand. [e] All countries not included elsewhere: Turkey, and mostly Asian countries. Non-CO2 Gas Sources & EPPA Activities GAS AND SOURCE CH4 Coal seams Petroleum production Transmissions and distribution losses Landfill, wastewater gas Industrial sewage, paper and chemicals Industrial sewage, food processing Rice, enteric fermentation, manure management, agr. waste, savannah, and deforestation burning N2O Adipic and nitric acid production Refined oil products combustion Coal combustion Agr. soils, manure management, agr. waste, savannah, and deforestation burning HFCs Air conditioning, foam blowing, other PFCs Semi-conductor production, solvent use, other Aluminum smelting SF6 Electrical switchgear Magnesium production EPPA REPRESENTATION Activity Coal production Oil production Gas consumption Household consumption Energy intensive production Other industry production Agriculture production Sector COAL OIL GAS CONS ENINT OTHINT AGRIC Energy intensive industry Refined oil consumption in all sectors Coal consumption in all sectors Agriculture production ENINT REFOIL COAL AGRIC Other industry production OTHIND Other industry production Energy intensive industry production OTHIND ENINT Electricity production Energy intensive industry production ELEC ENINT Toy Model • Excel Front End • Full Version of EPPA4 (2005 edition) • Reduced form of Earth Systems model – Regression on 1000 Runs of IGSM1 – Includes uncertainty in key climate variables • CS – Climate sensitivity, Kv – Ocean uptake, Faer – aerosol forcing parameter – Does not work well outside the central range of runs using for regression fitting…