Architectures & Roadmaps for Communications & Media

Architectures and Roadmaps for Communications and Media 1 One View (the consumer’s) of the Communications Value Chain 2 Form (Size, Weight, Ergonomics) O/S (Windows, Linux, Palm) HW system (OEM, ODM, CEM) Bundled Apps (phone, MP3, IM, etc.) Network (CDMA, WiFi, Sonet, IP, Cable) Equipment (Lucent, Ericcson, Cisco) Appliance (Phone, Camera, Laptop, PDA, TV, Missile, MP3 Player) Access (Wireless, POTS, ISP, Satellite, Cable, HotSpot) Channel (KaZaA, AOL/TW, MTV) Artist (Madonna, NBA, Spielberg, SAP, Self) Openness (EFF, RIAA/DMCA, TCPA) C O N S U M E R Content & Applications (Music, Movies, Email, VoIP, Shopping, ERP, SCM, CRM, Banking, IM, Surveillance, Photos, Games) Another View of the Communications Value Chain MATERIALS & PROCESS EQUIP •Silicon •Gaas •InP •Polymers •Steppers •Etchers •MEMS •Insertion •Etc.. COMPONENTS •Lasers •Amplifiers •Transceiver •Filters •Processors •Memories •Fiber •ASICS •MEMS •DSP’s •Etc.. EQUIPMENT MAKERS •Routers •Switches •Hubs •Base Stations •Satellites •Servers •Software •O/S •Etc.. NETWORK OWNERS •Wireless •Backbone •Metro •Access •Substations •Satellites •Broadcast Spectrum •Communic Spectrum •Etc.. SERVICE PROVIDERS •Long dist. •Local •Cellular •ISP •Broadcast •Hot Spots •Cable TV •Satellite TV •VPN’s •MVNO’s •Etc.. CONTENT & APPLICS •Music •Movies •Email •VoIP •POTS •Shopping •ERP •SCM, CRM •Surveillance •eBusiness •Etc.. APPLIANCES •Computers •Phones •Media Players • Cameras •PDA’s •Weapons •Etc.. 3 END USERS •Business •Consumer •Gov’t •Military •Education •Medical •Etc.. Roadmapping Communications: What are the Premises? Communications Value Chain is in ill health (ROADKILL MAPPING?) Silos in the value chain are interdependent (integrality). Vertical Absence of disintegration is leadership and the dominant coordination across structure. Silo an interdependent execs tend to focus value chain creates on their own uncertainty, risk, narrow slices. SOME VALUE CHAIN and reluctance to Most industry COORDINATION COULD invest. consortia are SPEED GROWTH. within-silo. HOW TO ACHIEVE COORDINATION IN THE ABSENCE OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION? 4 Roadmapping Communications: What are the Premises? Technology dynamics, Industry dynamics, and Regulatory dynamics are interdependent. Technology and industry roadmapping are typically done by different people 5 SIA roadmaps provided productive coordination in semiconductors, but focused only on technology & a narrow slice of the value chain. Industry growth was assumed. --> Not a good model for Communications. Productive roadmapping must encompass multiple links of the value chain, a multidisciplinary team, and the coevolution of technology, industry, and regulatory policy. 6 “If you come to a fork in the Road[map], Take it.” --Yogi Berra INFORMATION WANTS TO BE SHARED ==> Difficult content business models Internet explosion Wireless Explosion Connectivity Explosion File Sharing Explosion INFORMATION SHARERS GO TO JAIL ==> Poverty of The Commons 7 “If you come to a fork in the Road[map], Take it.” --Yogi Berra INFORMATION WANTS TO BE SHARED ==> Difficult content business models Internet explosion Wireless Explosion Connectivity Explosion File Sharing Explosion Is there a third way? (Quantum Roadmap) INFORMATION SHARERS GO TO JAIL ==> Poverty of The Commons Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium RLE MPC, MTL MATERIALS & PROCESS EQUIP •Silicon •Gaas •InP •Polymers •Steppers •Etchers •MEMS •Insertion •Etc.. COMPONENTS •Lasers •Amplifiers •Transceiver •Filters •Processors •Memories •Fiber •ASICS •MEMS •DSP’s •Etc.. eBusiness, Oxygen, Media Lab LCS ITC EQUIPMENT MAKERS •Routers •Switches •Hubs •Base Stations •Satellites •Servers •Software •O/S •Etc.. NETWORK OWNERS •Wireless •Backbone •Metro •Access •Substations •Satellites •Broadcast Spectrum •Communic Spectrum •Etc.. SERVICE PROVIDERS •Long distance •Local Phone •Cellular •ISP •Broadcast •Hot Spots •Cable TV •Satellite TV •VPN’s •MVNO’s •Etc.. CONTENT & APPLICS •Music •Movies •Email •VoIP •POTS •Shopping •ERP •SCM, CRM •Surveillance •eBusiness •Etc.. APPLIANCES •Computers •Phones •Media Players • Cameras •PDA’s •Weapons •Etc.. END USERS •Business •Consumer •Gov’t •Military •Education •Medical •Etc.. CROSS-INDUSTRY CHALLENGES Digital Rights ( “To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries;” U.S. Constitution, Article 1, Section 8, Clause 8 ) Access Architecture 8 Dynamic Analysis to Support Industry & Technology Roadmapping Corporate Strategy Dynamics Customer Preference Dynamics Technology Dynamics Regulatory Policy Dynamics Capital Market Dynamics Industry Structure Dynamics Business Cycle Dynamics 9 Roadmap Components: Dynamic Analyses 1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., the bullwhip effect) 2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., double helix in Clockspeed) 3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching of customer needs with corporate opportunities) 4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law) 6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (Cross-National, Cross Sector) 7. Capital Markets Dynamics 10 11 Cisco’s End-to-End Integration for its Fulfillment Supply Chain • New product development on-line with supply base • Technology Supply Chain Design: Innovation through Acquisition Customers Order info flows direct to Cisco and suppliers Cisco Finished Product flows direct to customer via logistics supplier Contract Manufacturers • Single enterprise information system • Dynamic replenishment, direct fulfillment, merge in transit • Customer orders through Cisco Connection online Component Suppliers & Distributors Basic Design Principle: Arm’s length Relationship with Fulfillment Chain Partners Cisco’s Strategy for Technology Supply Chain Design 12 1.Integrate technology around the router to be a communications network provider. 2. Leverage acquired technology with - sales muscle and reach - end-to-end IT - outsourced manufacturing - market growth 3. Leverage venture capital to supply R&D Basic Design Principle: Acquisition Relationship with Technology Chain Partners Volatility Amplification in the Supply Chain: 13 “The Bullwhip Effect” Customer Retailer Distributor Information lags Delivery lags Over- and underordering Misperceptions of feedback Lumpiness in ordering Chain accumulations Factory Tier 1 Supplier Equipment SOLUTIONS: Countercyclical Markets Countercyclical Technologies Collaborative channel mgmt. (Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing) Supply Chain Volatility Amplification: Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip 14 “We are experiencing a 100-year flood.” J. Chambers, 4/16/01 See "Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261. LESSONS FROM A FRUIT FLY: CISCO SYSTEMS 1. KNOW YOUR LOCATION IN THE VALUE CHAIN 2. UNDERSTAND THE DYNAMICS OF VALUE CHAIN FLUCTUATIONS 3. THINK CAREFULLY ABOUT THE ROLE OF VERTICAL COLLABORATIVE RELATIONSHIPS 4. INFORMATION AND LOGISTICS SPEED DO NOT REPEAL BUSINESS CYCLES OR THE BULLWHIP. Bonus Question: How does clockspeed impact volatility? 15 Roadmap Components: Dynamic Analyses 1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect) 2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., double helix in Clockspeed) 3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching of customer needs with corporate opportunities) 4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law) 6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (Cross-National, Cross Sector) 16 17 The Strategic Leverage of Value Chain Design: Who let Intel Inside? 1980: IBM designs a product, a process, & a value chain Customers Intel IBM Intel Inside Microsoft The Outcome: A phenomenonally successful product design A disastrous value chain design (for IBM) LESSONS FROM A FRUIT FLY: 18 THE PERSONAL COMPUTER 1. BEWARE OF INTEL INSIDE (Regardless of your industry) 2. MAKE/BUY IS NOT ABOUT WHETHER IT IS TWO CENTS CHEAPER OR TWO DAYS FASTER TO OUTSOURCE VERSUS INSOURCE. 3. DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP DESIGN CAN DETERMINE THE FATE OF COMPANIES AND INDUSTRIES, AND OF PROFIT AND POWER 4. THE LOCUS OF VALUE CHAIN CONTROL CAN SHIFT IN UNPREDICTABLE WAYS Vertical Industry Structure with Integral Product Architecture Computer Industry Structure, 1975-85 IBM DEC BUNCH All Products All Products All Products Microprocessors Operating Systems Peripherals Applications Software Network Services Assembled Hardware 19 20 Horizontal Industry Structure with Modular Product Architecture Computer Industry Structure, 1985-95 Microprocessors Intel Operating Systems Microsoft Peripherals Applications Software Network Services Assembled Hardware HP Moto Epson Microsoft Mac Seagate Lotus Novell AOL/Netscape Microsoft HP Compaq IBM Dell AMD etc Unix etc etc etc EDS etc etc THE DYNAMICS OF PRODUCT ARCHITECTURE STANDARDS,AND VALUE CHAIN STRUCTURE: THE DOUBLE HELIX 21 Roadmap Components: Dynamic Analyses 1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect) 2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., double helix in Clockspeed) 3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching of customer needs w/corp. opport) 4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law) 6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (Cross-National, Cross Sector) 22 ALL COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IS TEMPORARY Autos: Ford in 1920, GM in 1955, Toyota in 1990 Computing: IBM in 1970, DEC in 1980, Wintel in 1990 World Dominion: Greece in 500 BC, Rome in 100AD, G.B. in 1800 Sports: Bruins in 1971, Celtics in 1986, Yankees no end The faster the clockspeed, the shorter the reign 23 VALUE CHAIN DESIGN: Three Components 1. Insourcing/OutSourcing (The Make/Buy or Vertical Integration Decision) 2. Partner Selection (Choice of suppliers and partners for the chain) 3. The Contractual Relationship (Arm’s length, joint venture, long-term contract, strategic alliance, equity participation, etc.) 24 Clockspeed drives Business Strategy Cadence Dynamics between New Projects and Core Capability Development: PROJECTS MUST MAKE MONEY AND BUILD CAPABILITIES CORE CAPABILITIES NEW PROJECTS (New products, new processes, new suppliers) 25 Projects Serve Three Masters: Capabilities, Customers, & Corporate Profit CORE CAPABILITIES PROJECT DESIGN R E OM T S E CU ALU TION V SI O OP R P (New products, new processes, new suppliers) COR POR VALU ATE E PRO POS ITION 26 27 IMPLEMENTATION OF PROJECT DESIGN: FRAME IT AS 3-D CONCURRENT ENGINEERING PRODUCT Performance Specifications Recipe, Unit Process PROCESS Technology, & Process Planning Details, Strategy Product Architecture, Make/Buy components Time, Space, Availability Manufacturing System, Make/Buy processes VALUE CHAIN ARCHITECTURES IN 3-D INTEGRALITY VS. MODULARITY Integral product architectures feature close coupling among the elements - Elements perform many functions - Elements are in close spacial proximity - Elements are tightly synchronized - Ex: jet engine, airplane wing, microprocessor Modular product architectures feature separation among the elements - Elements are interchangeable - Elements are individually upgradeable - Element interfaces are standardized - System failures can be localized Ex: stereo system, desktop PC, bicycle - 28 VALUE CHAIN ARCHITECTURE Integral value-chain architecture features close proximity among its elements - Proximity metrics: Geographic, Organizational Cultural, Electronic - Example: Toyota city - Example: Ma Bell (AT&T in New Jersey) - Example: IBM mainframes & Hudson River Valley Modular value-chain architecture features multiple, interchangeable supplier and standard interfaces - Example: Garment industry - Example: PC industry - Example: General Motors’ global sourcing - Example: Telephones and telephone service 29 30 ALIGNING ARCHITECTURES: BUSINESS SYSTEMS & TECHNOLOGICAL SYSTEMS TECHNOLOGY/PRODUCT ARCHITECTURE BUSINESS SYSTEM/SUPPLY CHAIN ARCHITECTURE (Geog., Organ., Cultural, Elec.) INTEGRAL IN TE GR MO D UL AL AR MODULAR Microprocessors Mercedes & BMW vehicles Lucent Nortel Polaroid MSFT Windows Chrysler vehicles Cisco Digital Rights/ Music Distribution Dell PC’S Bicycles In/Outsourcing: Sowing the Seeds of Competence Development to develop 31 dependence for knowledge or dependence for capacity Independence Dependence + Amount of Work Outsourced knowledge +/or supply Supplier Capability + Amount of Supplier Learning + Amount of Work Done In-house + knowledge +/or supply Internal Capability + + Amount of Internal Learning Technology Dynamics in the Aircraft Industry: LEARNING FROM THE DINOSAURS + Japanese appeal as subcontractors U.S. firms’ appeal as subcontractors + + Boeing outsources Japanese Industry Autonomy to Japan (Mitsubishi Inside?) + Japanese industry size & capability + - U.S. industry size & capability 32 SOURCEABLE ELEMENTS PROCESS ELEMENTS ENGINEERING CONTROLLER ASSY VALVETRAIN TEST BLOCK SUBSYSTEMS I4 V6 V8 PRODUCTS 33 34 ITEM IS INTEGRAL ITEM IS MODULAR Strategic Make/Buy Decisions: Assess Critical Knowledge & Product Architecture DEPENDENT FOR KNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY A POTENTIAL OUTSOURCING TRAP WORST OUTSOURCING SITUATION INDEPENDENT FOR KNOWLEDGE & DEPENDENT FOR CAPACITY BEST OUTSOURCING OPPORTUNITY CAN LIVE WITH OUTSOURCING INDEPENDENT FOR KNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY OVERKILL IN VERTICAL INTEGRATION BEST INSOURCING SITUATION Strategic Make/Buy Decisions: Also consider Clockspeed & Supply Base Capability Fast Slow Clockspeed Clockspeed Fast Slow Clockspeed Fast Slow Few Many Clockspeed Suppliers or Few Many W Suppliers INTEGRAL st Watch it! Be st O O Few Many ut Few Many K OK Fast Slow Suppliers Fast Slow Clockspeed Suppliers Tr ap Few Many Suppliers DECOMPOSABLE (Modular) Clockspeed INDEPENDENT FOR KNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY Be Suppliers Ove st Few Many k rIn ill DEPENDENT FOR CAPACITY ONLY DEPENDENT FOR KNOWLEDGE & CAPACITY Fast Slow 35 Qualitative analysis of strategic importance uses five key criteria Value chain elements with high customer importance and fast clockspeed are generally strategic (unless there are many capable suppliers) ‹ Competitive position is seldom the primary consideration for strategic importance, rather it serves as a “tie-breaker” when other criteria are in conflict Competitive ‹ Customer Importance: • High • Medium • Low Technology Clockspeed: • Fast • Medium • Slow ‹ ‹ When many capable suppliers exist, knowledge may be considered commodity and development should be outsourced Position: • Advantage • Parity • Disadvantage Architecture is considered a constraint for the sourcing decision model, controls the level of engineering that must be kept in house for integration purposes Capable Suppliers: • None • Few • Many Architecture: • Integral • Modular Possible Decisions (Knowledge & Supply): • Insource • Outsource • Partner/Acquire • Partial Insource • Partial Outsource • Invest • Spin Off • Develop Suppliers 36 Every decision requires qualitative and quantitative analysis to reach a conclusion High Knowledge Supply Qualitative Value Strategic Importance Qualitative Model Improve Economics Divest/ Outsource Customer Importance: Hig h Med ium Low Competitive Position: • Ad vantage • Parity • Disa dva nta ge Low Quantitative Value Capable Suppliers: • No ne • Few • Many Possible Decisions: High Insource Outsource Partner/Acquire Partial Insource Partial Outsource Invest Spin Off Develop Suppliers Engine A EVA Engines EVA Revenue AS-IS Engine B EVA EVA BIC AS-IS COGS BMK Taxes AS-IS Capital Charge BIC X BMK Working Capital +. WACC BMK −. Net Assets AS-IS . . . Transmissions EVA AS-IS BIC BIC NOPAT AS-IS GMPT EVA PBIT −. AS-IS • • • • • • • • BIC • In teg ral • Modular AS-IS Architecture: BIC • Fas t • Medium • Slow Harvest Investment Low Technology Clockspeed: AS-IS • • • Invest & Build AS-IS BMK Fixed Assets Quantitative Model (Financial) 37 VALUE CHAIN DESIGN IS THE ULTIMATE CORE COMPETENCY Since all advantages are temporary, the only lasting competency is to continuously build and assemble capabilities chains. KEY SUB-COMPETENCIES: 1. Forecasting the dynamic evolution of market power and market opportunities 2. Anticipating Windows of Opportunity 3. 3-D Concurrent Engineering: Product, Process, Value Chain CAPABILITIES Fortune Favors the Prepared Firm PROJECTS 38 39 PROCESS FOR VALUE CHAIN DESIGN 1. Benchmark the Fruit Flies DOUBLE HELIX 2. Map your Supply Chain -Organizational Value Chain BOEING -Technology Value Chain -Competence Chain 3. Dynamic Chain Analysis at each node of each chain map 4. Identify Windows of Opportunity 5. Exploit Competency Development Dynamics with 3-D Concurrent Engineering CAPABILITIES PROJECTS OPTICAL TELECOM VALUE CHAIN: MINI CASE EXAMPLE NORTEL NETWORKS plays at at least three levels of the Optical Network Telecom value chain: 1. Network design & installation 2. Modules (OC-192 network elements) 3. Components (lasers, amplifiers) QUIZ: Should Nortel sell their components business? Hint: How likely are the scenarios of: - An Intel Inside effect in components? - Networks become sufficiently modular as to be assembled by the customer? 40 WIRELESS VALUE CHAIN:MINI CASE EXAMPLE Wireless Base Stations (WSB’S) comprise 4 key subsystems: Radio Part Digital Signal Processing Modem WSB architectures are -integral & proprietary Suppliers include: Nortel, Moto, Ericsson, Siemens, Nokia Disruptive Modem advances (e.g., MUD) can double Base Station Capacity Transmission Interface Fiber & WireBased Network Modular WSB’s might (1) Stimulate new WSB entrants (ala Dell) (2) Stimulate standard subsystem suppliers (3) lower prices to the network operators (4) Speed base station performance imp. (5) Increase demand for basestations due to improved price-performance ratios. 41 Roadmap Components: Dynamic Analyses 1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect) 2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., double helix in Clockspeed) 3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching of customer needs with corporate opportunities) 4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., Semiconductor Industry Assoc. roadmap & Moore's law) 6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (Cross-National, Cross Sector) 42 Customer Preference Drivers (adapted from Sadek Esener, UCSD and Tom O’Brien, Dupont “Macro-Trends” process) 1. Population - Aging, Growth 2. Awareness - of Environment/Energy costs, Personal Health - of consumption possibilities & disparities 3. Globalization - of commerce, culture, knowledge, disease, terrorism 4. Clusters - urbanization - wealth - affinity/ethnic groups 5. Technology - cheap computation, pervasive connectivity - technology at the molecular (nano) level (life sciences, electronics, polymers) 43 Roadmap Components: Dynamic Analyses 1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect) 2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., double helix in Clockspeed) 3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching of customer needs with corporate opportunities) 4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., Semiconductor Industry Assoc. roadmap & Moore's law) 6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (Cross-National, Cross Sector) 44 Roadmap for Electronic Devices Number of chip components 295oK 1018 Classical Age 1016 Quantum Age 77oK 1014 4oK 2010 SIA Roadmap 2005 Quantum State Switch 2000 1995 1012 1010 108 Historical Trend 1990 6 10 1980 104 CMOS 1970 102 101 100 10-1 Feature size (microns) 10-2 10-3 45 46 International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors ‘99 Year 2005 2008 2011 2014 Technology (nm) 100 70 50 35 DRAM chip area (mm2) 526 603 691 792 DRAM capacity (Gb) 8 64 MPU chip area (mm2) 622 713 817 937 MPU transistors (x109) 0.9 2.5 7.0 20.0 MPU Clock Rate (GHz) 3.5 6.0 10.0 13.5 Disk Drive Development 1978-1991 Disk Drive Dominant Generation Producer 14” 8” IBM 47 Dominant Usage Approx cost per Megabyte mainframe $750 Quantum Mini-computer $100 5.25” Seagate Desktop PC $30 3.5” Conner Portable PC $7 2.5” Conner Notebook PC $2 From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by 60%/year while semiconductor density grew ~50%/year. Disk Drive cost per megabyte in 1997 was ~ $ .10 Optical Networking is Keeping Up! 48 Capacity Voice growth OC192 OC768 OC48 OC12 Time TDM line rate growth Data growth Optical network capacity growth 49 ”Killer Technologies” of the Information Age: Semiconductors, Magnetic Memory, Optoelectronics “We define a ‘killer technology’ as one that delivers enhanced systems performance of a factor of at least a hundred-fold per decade.” C.H.Fine & L.K. Kimerling, "Biography of a Killer Technology: Optoelectronics Drives Industrial Growth with the Speed of Light,” published in 1997 by the Optoelectronics Industry Develoment Association, 2010 Mass Ave, NW, Suite 200, Wash. DC 20036-1023. Killer Question: Will Integrated Optics evolve linearly like Semiconductors with Moore’s Law or like Disk Drives with repeated industry disruptions? Optical Technology Evolution: Navigating the Generations with an Immature Technology 50 1 2 3 4 5 Timeline Now Starting Starting 3-5 years 5-15 years Stage Discrete Components Hybrid Integration Low-level monolithic integration Medium Monolithic integration High-level monolithic integration Examples MUX/ DEMUX TX/RX module OADM TX/RX module OADM OADM, Transponder Switch Matrix Transponder Core Technologies FBGs, Thinfilm, fused fiber, mirrors Silicon Bench, Ceramic substrates Silica Silicon InP InP, ?? InP, ?? How many Functions? 1 2-5 2-5 5-10 10-XXX Industry Structure Integrated Integrated/ Horizontal Integrated /Horizontal DOUBLE HELIX DOUBLE HELIX Roadmap Components: Dynamic Analyses 1. Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect) 2. Industry structure dynamics (e.g., double helix in Clockspeed) 3. Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamic matching of customer needs with corporate opportunities) 4. Customer Preference Dynamics 5. Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Assoc. roadmap built around Moore's law) 6. Regulatory Policy Dynamics (Cross-National, Cross Sector) 51 Regulatory Policy Dynamics: Some Components 1. Players: United States: FCC, Congress, Consumers, Corporations, Interest Groups 2. Environments: Wireless in Europe, NTT DoCoMo, Broadband in Sweden & Korea India vs. China Development US: Access, Digital Rights 3. Standards: wCDMA vs CDMA2000 52 53 Regulatory Policy Dynamics: WORK IN PROGRESS: Structural Model Economic Power of Respective Regulated Parties Political Power of Pro-statusquo business Party 1. Players: United States: FCC, Congress, Consumers, Corporations, Interest Groups 2. Environments: Wireless in Europe, NTT DoCoMo, Broadband in Sweden & Korea India vs. China Development US: Access, Digital Rights 3. Standards: wCDMA vs CDMA2000 54 All Conclusions are Temporary Clockspeeds are increasing almost everywhere Value Chains are changing rapidly Assessment of value chain dynamics Roadmap Construction