Optional Follow-up, Computerized Angry Negotiation Tournament

Angry Madness Today we are playing the Angry Negotiation Game in class. As an optional follow-up, you may enter our Computerized Angry Negotiation Tournament. To do this, respond to Professor McAdams’ email later today. Description of Computerized Angry Negotiation Tournament You will play a slight variation of the game played in class. After Rounds 1-9, people get angry with probability 25% (rather than 10% after Round 1, 20% after Round 2, etc..) After Round 10, however, we still assume that people get Angry for certain. Furthermore, half of the overall population of remaining players will survive each round. (You and your opponent might both survive or both perish.) Gold Medal: Silver Medal: Bronze Medal: bonus = 15% of total course grade bonus = 10% of total course grade bonus = 5% of total course grade How do you want your computer agent to play? There are at most ten rounds. For each possible payoff you may get from yielding (M = 100, 200, or 400)1 specify how likely you will be to Yield in each round, if that round is reached. (See Example on next pages.) When M = 100 When M = 200 When M = 400 Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 Round 10 Unlike February Madness, luck will not at all be a factor in this tournament. In each match, I will compute each player’s exact expected payoff to determine the survivor. Example: Ann vs Bart Note: If you will be yielding 100% of the time if ever round R is reached, there is no way that round R+1 will be reached. That’s why those boxes are empty. Ann’s Strategy Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 Round 10 When M = $100 When M = $200 50% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100% When M = $400 100% Bart’s Strategy Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7 Round 8 Round 9 Round 10 When U = $100 0% 0% 0% 100% When U = $200 When U = $400 50% 0% 25% 0% 75% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% What Will Happen If M = U = $200 In Round 1, Ann never yields and Bart yields 50% of the time ƒ 50% of the time, Ann gets $300 and Bart gets $200 ƒ 50%*10% = 5% of the time, Ann and Bart get angry (and $0 payoff each) ƒ So, Round 2 is reached only 45% of the time If Round 2 is reached, Ann never yields and Bart yields 25% of the time ƒ 25% of the time, Ann gets $300 and Bart gets $200 ƒ 75%*20% = 15% of the time, Ann and Bart get angry (and $0 payoff each) ƒ So, Round 3 is reached from Round 2 only 60% of the time. All together, Round 3 is reached only 45% * 60% = 27% of the time If Round 3 is reached, Ann never yields and Bart yields 75% of the time ƒ 75% of the time, Ann gets $300 and Bart gets $200 ƒ 25%*30% = 7.5% of the time, Ann and Bart get angry (and $0 payoff each) ƒ So, Round 4 is reached from Round 3 only 17.5% of the time. All together, Round 4 is reached only 27% * 17.5% = 4.7% of the time If Round 4 is reached, Ann never yields and Bart yields 100% of the time ƒ Ann gets $300 and Bart gets $200 ƒ Round 5 is never reached Given their payoff in every possible event, we can calculate each player’s expected payoff when M = U = $200 and, similarly, in all of the other cases (M = U = $100 and M = $100, U = $200, etc..) The average payoff across all nine cases is what determines who survives to the next round. For more details, feel free to examine the materials on Sloanspace: 1. Word document that breaks out in more detail the calculation for the highlighted case M = U = $200 above. 2. Excel spreadsheet that will be used to compute the payoffs. (Feel free to experiment – input various strategies and see what overall payoffs result.)