Trends and Actions in Decarbonizing Transport

Decarbonizing Transport: Trends and Actions Presented by: Wei-Shiuen Ng, PhD Date: April 1, 2021 Current Ambitions Not Enough To Achieve Climate Goals - Only 10% of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) set a target for transport CO2 reduction - Transport-related CO2 emissions to grow over 60% by 2050 - More ambitious policies could reduce emissions by 30% - Importance of innovative disruptions Transport in (I)NDCs - - Out of the 194 parties which have submitted either INDCs or NDCs • 86% provide an economy-wide, quantified CO2 reduction target • 81% mention the transport sector • 60% provide transport mitigation "measures" • 10% provide a quantified CO2 reduction target for transport Difference between NDCs and national plans CO2 Emissions From Domestic Transport Per Capita The per capita CO2 emissions gap between OECD and non-OECD economies will narrow over time. Projections in Global Freight Demand - Maritime shipping will remain the largest contributor to global tons- kilometers - Ships will carry out more than three- quarters of all goods movements by 2050 - The remaining goods will be transported by road (17%) and rail (7%) Source: ITF 2019 CO2 Projections for Freight Transport by Mode - Mitigation measures implemented in a high ambition scenario are able to cut global emissions from freight transport in 2050 by 45% relative to the current ambition scenario - Majority of emissions reductions come from road and maritime freight transport - A lot of potential to decarbonise maritime transport Freight Must Be Higher On The Agenda - Today, freight transport 36% of total transport CO2 emissions > by 2050 48% - Increase in demand > freight emissions growth double by 2050 - While current ambitions are expected to lead to important efficiency improvements, they will not be enough to compensate the growth Road Freight: In The Short Term, Need To Scale Up Tested Measures - Improve efficiency with existing solutions (aerodynamic retrofits, reduced rolling resistance of tires, vehicle weight reduction, increased engine efficiency) - Encourage development of greener fuels and lower emission vehicles - Encourage the role out of electrification and alternative fuels where already viable (pricing mechanisms, stricter emissions standards, zero- emissions zones and recharging infrastructure) - Broaden access to relevant data and improve their analytical uses for policy assessment and design - Improved logistics, asset sharing and collaboration contribute to better operations, cost decreases and has the potential to significantly reduce emissions Ultimately, Carbon-Free Fuels And Energy Transition Are Needed For Freight - No clear front-runner yet - E-highways, biofuels, hydrogen, battery - A mix of policies is required to encourage the market • Market pull policies allowing scale up of solutions closest to market deployment, and • Technology push to foster cost reductions Urban Passenger Demand To Double By 2050 - CO2 emissions will reduce on current trajectory, but more ambition could see them cut by 76% - On current trajectory, will account for 16% of transport emissions by 2050 - Shared mobility* is the fastest growing mode, car use still dominant but declining - *Free-floating shared vehicle systems (cars, bikes, scooter, motorbikes) and shared taxis and minibuses Many Of The Tools To Decarbonized Urban Passenger Transport Are Already Available However, greater political ambition and appropriate regulation are needed - Continue demand management measures, such as road pricing, and investment to encourage mode shift to public transport, walking and cycling - Set standards that encourage the transition to sustainable mobility - Encourage electrification, as fuel efficiency alone will not do enough - Adopt low/zero carbon fuel policies - Encourage and invest in the roll out of charging and alternative fuel infrastructure - Make low-carbon transport the default for public sector decision-making - Support and regulate the roll out of new forms of mobility, such as shared mobility, to ensure effectiveness and sufficiently high occupancy rates Maritime Ships Carry The Majority Of Global Freight - Ships will carry out more than three- quarters of goods movements by 2050 - The economic value of freight flows in the North Pacific and Indian Oceans is projected to increase nearly four-fold between 2015 and 2050 - Currently, in Maritime freight, there is a significant gap between greenhouse gas emissions and targets, which needs to be bridged as a matter of urgency - Maritime trade demand projections by region, Current demand pathway, billion tons kilometers. • Indian Ocean • North Pacific • North Atlantic • Mediterranean and Black Sea • South Atlantic • South Pacific Unchecked, International Aviation Emissions Will Continue To Grow - Aviation has significantly decreased its per-passenger emissions, but its rapid growth outweighs these improvements - CO2 emissions from domestic and international aviation by scenario, million tons of CO2 emitted before offsets - Biofuels can help decrease carbon intensity of aviation, but it is unlikely that the demand for biofuels from all sectors can be satisfied in the future - Effective carbon offsetting can help deliver a greener aviation sector, but it needs to be combined with other policies to constrain aviation emissions Mode Shift From Air And Greener Access To Airports Should Be Encouraged Where Feasible - Shift from air to rail travel should be encouraged. However, this is only possible for routes with sufficiently high demand levels and infrastructure either being already in place or possible to be developed in the future - Remove barriers to rail, by relevant infrastructure investments and creation of multimodal hubs at major airports, to facilitate mode shift from air to rail where that is feasible. - Incentivize airports to deliver greener surface access for travelers and workers, particularly through provision of public transport A Comprehensive Approach Including Aircraft, Airports And Airspace Management Is Needed - Invest in airport infrastructure to prevent airport and air space congestion - Incentivize airports to promote efficient use of the existing infrastructure - Encourage efficiency improvements to air space through promoting use of new technologies and international cooperation - Incentivize carbon neutrality of airports - Encourage use of greener aircraft by differentiating airport charges - Policies that encourage the supply and demand of low-emission drop-in fuels that are alternative to oil-based jet kerosene, such as low carbon fuel standards - Incentivize the private sector to deliver and deploy electric aircraft and use of more sustainable aviation fuels Multiple Objectives Must Be Achieved, Across Different Sectors, To Decarbonise Transport - Mode shift - Improved design, operations and efficiency - Low / Zero emission vehicles and fuels - Integration - Up-scaling and innovation Top 5 Transport Actions To Take Now - Make low-carbon transport the default for public sector decision- making - Scale-up research, production and use of zero-emission fuels - Create conditions that encourage the maximum use of transport capacity - Set prices to encourage sustainable passenger mobility and freight transport - Share knowledge about tested measures that reduce transport emissions Policy Insights - Transport policy must anticipate disruptions that originate outside the sector - Better planning tools needed to improve adaptability to uncertainties - Transport systems will benefit from policy frameworks that foster innovation • From static regulation to frequent regulatory reviews On-going: Regional/national pathways - Decarbonizing Transport in Europe - Decarbonizing Transport in Latin American cities: Bogota, Buenos Aires, Mexico City - Decarbonizing Transport in Emerging Economies: Argentina, Azerbaijan, India, Morocco UNFCCC Climate Action Pathway 2020: Transport Structure - Impact 1 • - Impact 2 • - Resilient Transport Systems, Infrastructure and Modes Impact 4 • - Shift to Low Carbon Passenger and Freight Transport Impact 3 • - Reduce Transport Distance Travelled and Vehicle Use Improve Vehicle, Fuel and Operational Efficiency of Land Transport Impact 5 • - Improve Shipping Technology, Operation and Fuel Efficiency Impact 6 • Improve Aviation Efficiency and Reduce the Carbon Intensity of Aviation Fuels