The state of the world

Laboratory for Sustainable Business Ecological and Economic Sustainability What is sustainability? What is sustainable development? Brundtland Commission (1987): “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” A Finite Planet Insolation (Solar energy) High-Grade Natural (Low Entropy) Capital Stocks Resources Natural Capital Formation Infrared Energy Radiated to Space Capital, Labor, Technology Human Economy, Society High-Entropy Resources Pollutant Stocks (Wastes) Necessary Conditions for a Sustainable World 1. Renewable resources can be used no faster than the rate at which they regenerate. 2. Pollution and wastes can be emitted no faster than natural systems can absorb them, recycle them, or render them harmless. 3. Nonrenewable resources can be used no faster than renewable substitutes for them can be introduced. 1. Renewable resources can be used no faster than the rate at which they regenerate. Regeneration Resource Available Consumption 2. Pollution and wastes can be emitted no faster than natural systems can absorb them, recycle them, or render them harmless. Waste Generation Pollution, Waste Recycling, Decay 3. Nonrenewable resources can be used no faster than renewable substitutes can be introduced. Resource Available Consumption Example: Earth’s Energy Balance and Climate Change Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv) 380 360 Atmospheric [CO2], ppmv 340 320 300 280 1850 CO2 Emissions 1900 CO2 in Atmosphere 1950 2000 CO2 Removal Average Surface Temperature + Heat Stored at Earth's Surface Energy from Sun (Insolation) - Energy Radiated to Space World Population Growth . February 2008: 6.65 Billion 6 Billion People Average Growth Rate: 1900 - 1950: 0.86%/year (doubling time ! 80 years) 1950 - 1997: 1.76%/year (doubling time ! 40 years) 6 4 4 2 2 Upper Bound 0 1900 2000 Lower Bound 0 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 Net Increase today: ≈ 77 million/year Real Gross World Product, 1950-2004 Ave Growth Rate ≈ 3.5%/year Doubling Time ≈ 20 years At that rate, in 100 years GWP 32 times larger Possible Futures Fluctuation around equilibrium Human Activity Overshoot and decline S-shaped Growth: Smooth, gradual transition to equilibrium Time How will growth end? Growth in human activity cannot continue forever on a finite planet. How will we make the transition? Voluntarily or involuntarily? Smoothly & peacefully or catastrophically? With what population? What standard of living? What quality of life? What degree of equity and social justice? What role for nature, other species? IPAT Impact = Population * Affluence * Technology Example: CO2 = Population * Income * Emissions Emissions Capita Dollar Tons year = People * $/Year * Tons Person $ 2 Billion Tons CO /Year 35 Impact = World Carbon Emissions 30 From Fossil Fuel Use 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: DOE EIA 1980 1985 1990 7 1995 2000 2005 2010 2005 2010 World Population Billion 6 Population 5 4 Source: US Census Bureau 1980 1985 1990 1995 6000 1990 $/Year/Person * Affluence 5000 4000 3000 2000 2 Tons CO /Thousand Real $ 50 1985 1990 1995 2000 Impact = Carbon Intensity of the Economy 0.5 0.0 Source: DOE EIA 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 From Fossil Fuel Use 20 10 0 1980 10 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2040 2050 World Population Billion 7 6 1990 $/Year/Person 4 Source: US Census Bureau 1980 1990 2000 2010 10000 2020 2030 8000 6000 4000 World Average Income/Person 2000 2 Tons CO /Thousand Real $ 2010 Emissions required to stabilize [CO2] at ≈ 450-500 ppm 30 5 * Technology 2005 World Carbon Emissions 8 * Affluence 2010 1.0 40 9 Population 2005 1.5 2 Billion Tons CO /Year World Average Income/Person 1000 0 1980 * Technology 2000 0 1980 1.5 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Carbon Intensity of the Economy 1.0 0.5 0.0 Assumes decline at historical average (-1.1%/year) 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 How will we achieve sustainability? • Better Technology? • Lower Consumption? • Lower Population? • Huge technical, economic, political, social and ethical issues for each • All options linked by intricate feedbacks Sweden 50 40 10 Population CBR 30 20 8 6 CDR 4 10 2 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 Population (millions) Crude Birth Rate, Crude Death Rate (per thousand) Demographic Transition: Early Industrializer 0 2000 Before industrialization: High Death and Birth Rates -> Slow pop growth During transition: Death rates fall faster than birth rates -> Rapid growth After Transition: Low Death and Birth rates -> Slow, no, or even negative growth Egypt 50 60 CBR 50 40 40 30 CDR 30 20 20 10 10 Population 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 Population (Millions) 0 2000 Much faster drop in Death Rate; Same slow decline in Birth Rate. Result: Faster population growth to higher level before transition complete. Population Inertia World 80+ Male Female 70-74 60-64 50-54 Age Crude Birth Rate, Crude Death Rate (per thousand) Demographic Transition: Later Industrializer 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 Population (millions) 9.4≈B6 B World Age Structure 2050: 1998: Age World 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 -400 Male -300 Female -200 -100 0 100 Population (millions) 200 300 400 Age Brazil 80+ 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 05-09 00-04 -10 Male Female -5 0 Population (millions) 5 10 Human Ecological Footprint Ecological footprint (number of planet Earths) 1.5 1.5 Number of Earths Used by Humanity 1.0 0.5 0 0.0 61 964 967 970 973 976 979 982 985 988 991 994 997 000 003 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 19 1960 2005 Footprint and Biocapacity (Carrying Capacity) 4.0 4.0 Global hectares per person 3.5 Biocapacity 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Number of Earths Used by Humanity 0.5 0 0.0 61 964 967 970 973 976 979 982 985 988 991 994 997 000 003 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 19 1960 2005 Ecological Footprint by Region S-Lab Spring 2008 Footprints CATEGORY (Now) FOOD MOBILITY SHELTER GOODS/SERVICES TOTAL FOOTPRINT IF EVERYONE LIVED LIKE YOU, WE WOULD NEED THIS MANY PLANETS. CATEGORY (Future) FOOD MOBILITY SHELTER GOODS/SERVICES TOTAL FOOTPRINT IF EVERYONE LIVED LIKE YOU, WE WOULD NEED THIS MANY PLANETS. Low 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 9.00 Median Mean 5.00 4.87 2.00 3.35 4.00 4.60 5.00 6.29 17.00 19.22 High 7.00 9.00 13.00 17.00 42.00 2.00 4.00 4.38 9.00 1.00 1.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.00 6.00 17.00 3.77 3.92 3.48 6.27 17.52 7.00 8.00 9.00 18.00 40.00 1.00 4.50 4.54 10.00 My Footprint: No Flying, 2.4; With Flying, 4.7 How much is enough? How much would you need to spend each year to be happy? That is, how much consumption would be enough to satisfy you? Consumption spending here means expenditure to provide for the lifestyle you wish to have, including food, clothing, shelter, travel, entertainment, and all other expenditures on goods and services. Consumption does not include charitable giving, but only what you spend on yourself and your immediate family. Consumption does not include saving or investment (for example to build future income for retirement). Consumption does not include payment of income taxes, but only the cost of the goods and services you purchase. Choose one of the following options: A. $ per year is enough. B. At least $ but more is always better. per year, How much is enough? S-Lab Students Spring 2008 Class Average - 1yr MBA - 2yr MBA - 1yr LFM - 2yr LFM - Fellows - non-Sloan $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Low 5,000 20,000 30,000 5,000 40,000 50,000 50,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Median 60,000 60,000 50,000 50,000 77,500 165,000 50,000 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Mean 102,542 100,478 104,000 62,571 98,750 170,000 62,000 GDP/Capita (PPP$/capita, 2004) US High Human Development Nations World Low Human Development Nations $39,676 $26,568 $8,838 $1,113 (source:UNDP Human Development Report 2006; http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/) More is always better: 58% $ $ $ $ $ $ $ High 750,000 750,000 500,000 200,000 200,000 300,000 100,000 Class Mean/ Average 2.62 2.57 3.91 3.86 11.8 11.60 93.4 92.13 Our global civilization is not sustainable • We depend on nonrenewable resources • We consume renewable resources faster than they regenerate • We generate wastes faster than they can be absorbed and rendered harmless • We have pushed the ecosystems of the planet into new regimes in which we have no experience and do not understand Growth Is Ending • Growth is rapidly deepening our unsustainability • Population (but demographic transition) • Economic growth • Growth will stop. • Question is not if, but how, when; • Voluntarily and peacefully or involuntarily and convulsively? Innovation,Technology & Markets • Powerfully increase environmental degradation – By enabling growth – Through unanticipated side effects • Essential in creating a sustainable world – Moderating our impact on the global carrying capacity – Repairing the damage we’ve already done BUT There is no purely technological solution to the challenge of creating a sustainable society. Next Time What can we do? What are the barriers to action? • Please read: – Repenning and Sterman (2001) Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened. – Repenning et al. (2001) Past the Tipping Point: The Persistence of Firefighting in Product Development. – In Many Communities, It’s Not Easy Going Green, New York Times 7 Feb 2008 (on the MIT server) ***NEW*** • Please think about the following questions: – Have you ever worked for an “overloaded” organization that was stuck in the “firefighting trap”? Why were you stuck? Did the organization recover? If so, how? – What are the major barriers to “going green” inside a for profit corporation? How can they best be overcome?