University:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Course:
15.992 | S-Lab: Laboratory for Sustainable Business
Academic year:

2023
Views:

338

Pages:

16
Author:

kuboniswep1

S curves Do all good things come to an end? Technological exhaustion Physical limit? Performance Performance is ultimately constrained by physical limits E.g.: Sailing ships & the power of the wind Copper wire & transmission capability Semiconductors & the speed of the electron Time Evolution of Measurement-While-Drilling tools S-Curve Performance = Data Transmission Rate (bit per second) 15 Co nti nu ou sM .P. 14 13 Physical limit: signal attenuation -F SK 3G 12 11 Co nti nu ou sM .P. 10 9 -B PS K 3G 8 Co nti nu ou sM .P. 7 6 Po 5 sit ive 4 Ne ga ti ve M M ud Pu lse 3Posit ive ud 2 Pu lse M ud Co nti nu ou sM .P. 2n dG en e ra tio n -2 G Shallow wells only All well conditions -1 G Pu lse Dominant Design = Continuous Mud Pulse Telemetry 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 R&D Effort (measured in Generations = +/- 3 years ) 8 9 The Evolution of Palomar’s Products: Laser Based Skin Treatment Product EpiLaser™ E2000™ LightSheer™ SLP1000™ EsteLux™ MediLux™ NeoLux™ StarLux™ Lux Handpieces Home Devices Material Price Cost $150K $80K $130K $60K $100K $40K $65K $25K $40K $ 4K $50K $ 4K $30K $ 4K $80K $ 5K $10K $ 1K ? ? Year 1996 1997 1998 2000 2001 2003 2003 2004 2002-4 ? Year 1994 0 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20 Price, Cost $000 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Price Cost Improvements in Modem Speed 60000 Modem Speed, Bps 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 Time 1985 1990 1995 2000 Semiconductor Performance: Minimum Line Width over Time Year 1960 0 2 Minimum Feature Size 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Semiconductor Performance: Minimum Line Width over Time Year Minimum Feature Size 0.1 1960 1 10 100 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Modeling the returns to effort vs. time Performance Performance may be a non linear function of effort expended: in mature industries more and more effort may lead to less and less progress, while progress in emerging industries may be “surprisingly” fast Effort Semiconductors: Minimum feature size vs "effort" Cumulative commerical patents Minimum feature size 0.1 0 1 10 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Reflections on the S Curve z Which unit of analysis? – Industry? Firm? Technology? Product? z z z Which dimension of performance? Effort vs. time? Can performance limits be predicted? The Innovator’s Dilemma: “Disruptive” technologies may threaten established firms Established technology Performance Mainstream customer needs Invasive Technology Niche customer needs Time Clay Christensen: The Innovator’s Dilemma Step & Repeat aligners initially sold to customers with different needs: Speed Scanning Projection Aligners Step & Repeat Aligners Yield But then they improved enough to take the whole market Speed Scanning Projection Aligners Step & Repeat Aligners Yield Changing Tradeoffs in Photolithography 140 S&R 2 Speed (wafers/ming) 120 Scanning Projection Aligners 100 80 60 40 S&R 1 20 0 0 1 2 3 Yield 4 5 6 Are all “discontinuities” “disruptions”?