The Unpredictability of Precedents
• Precedents help narrow the range of legal choices
judges face when they justify a decision
Six Levels of Analysis:
1. Reasoning by Example in General:
○ Accepting one choice and rejecting another,
because the past provides an example that
the accepted choice somehow worked
○ No rules tell the decider how to choose which
examples are similar and which are different.
○ Example:
§ Robert wants to climb a tree but
wonders whether its branches will hold.
He chooses to attempt to climb the tree
because his older sister has just climbed
the tree without mishap
2. Examples in Law
○ Decisions in prior cases provide examples for
legal reasoning.
○ Judges will look at what other judges have said
about the meaning of a statute, a
constitutional provision, or a common law rule
when applying similar facts.
○ Precedents typically emerge out of appellate
law
• The Three Step Process of Reasoning by Example:
○ Powerful legal traditions impel judges to
resolve cases by using solutions drawn from
similiar problems reached by judges in the past
○ Three step process:
§ Sees a factual similarity between the
current case and one or more prior
cases
§ Announces the rule of law on which the
earlier case or cases rested
§ Applies the rule to the current case
• How reasoning by example perpetuates current case and one or more prior
cases
§ Announces the rule of law on which the
earlier case or cases rested
§ Applies the rule to the current case
• How reasoning by example perpetuates
unpredictability in law
○ The judge must determine which facts in the
current case are most important to the
outcome and link them cases with facts that
the judge thinks are similar.
§ This gives judges the power over their
own cases and interpretation of
precedents.
○ Fact Freedom: how we refer to the judicial
freedom to choose the governing precedent by
selectively sifting the facts of prior cases and
weighing their relative significance.