Red Scare - Revisiting Joe McCarthy's Influence on 1950s Elections (Table)

Table 1: McCarthy’s interventions for Republicans/against Democrats Extent of McCarthy's intervention Newspaper stories Republican Vote Democrat McCarthy Mentioning and Vote Speeches candidates McCarthy Year State Name % Name % # # # % 1950 CA Nixon 59 Douglas 41 1 250 19 8 1950 CT Talbot 47 McMahon (i) 52 3 0 0 0 1950 IL Dirksen 54 Lucas (i) 46 6 117 6 5 1950 IN Capehart (i) 53 Campbell 46 1 82 7 9 1950 MD Butler 53 Tydings (i) 46 3 57 13 23 1950 MO Donnell (i) 46 Hennings 54 1 43 4 9 1952 AZ Goldwater 51 McFarland (i) 49 1 44 14 32 1952 CT Purtell 53 Benton (i) 44 3 12 4 33 1952 IN Jenner (i) 52 Schricker 47 1 170 63 37 1952 MI Potter 51 Moody (i) 49 1 145 34 23 1952 MO Kem (i) 46 Symington 54 2 53 9 17 1952 WA Cain (i) 44 Jackson 56 1 82 24 29 1950 Avg. for non-McCarthy intervention states 3% 1952 Avg. for non-McCarthy intervention states 13% (i) indicates incumbency. As shown in the last two rows, we also conducted the newspaper coding in states where McCarthy did not intervene. As expected, we found little coverage of McCarthy in these states in 1950. We did find some coverage of McCarthy in non-intervention states in 1952, but that coverage was overwhelmingly about McCarthy’s 1952 primary race in Wisconsin, which received sustained national attention. Table 2: Did McCarthy hurt Democrats? Average McCarthy intervention effect (NonSouth only) 1938-1964 DV: County-level Democratic vote McCarthy intervention (1) -3.33** (1.25) 1950-1964 (2) (3) (4) 0.73 -0.50 -0.32 0.40 (1.68) (1.83) (1.73) (1.96) Incumbency 2.94** Appointed incumbents Prior presidential vote Prior Senate vote (avg. of previous two elections) 5.31** (0.56) (0.62) (1.06) -1.37 -1.82 -1.88 (1.17) (2.15) (2.40) 0.52** (avg. of previous two elections) 3.31** (5) 0.87** 0.85** (0.096) (0.11) (0.10) 0.11 -0.11 -0.11 (0.096) (0.10) (0.090) Challenger quality Previous US Senate -1.77 (3.29) Previous governor 4.00* (1.64) Previous US Rep. 4.41** (1.50) Previous state office 1.27 (1.72) Previous State Rep 2.02 (1.70) Previous local office 1.76 (1.64) Open seat -1.93 (1.46) Constant 49.1** (0.64) N 15,915 45.0** (4.17) 15,915 7.36# 8.37** (3.75) (3.20) 15,915 9,309 9.90** (3.39) 9,309 R2 0.428 0.552 0.660 0.780 0.794 SER 9.46 8.38 7.30 5.58 5.40 Year effects X X X X County effects X X X X OLS estimates. Robust standard errors clustered at the state-year in parentheses. Observations are county years. ** p<0.01, * p<0.05, #p<0.1 Table 3: Did McCarthy hurt the Democrats he targeted? Breaking down the McCarthy intervention effect (Non-South only) 1938-1964 DV: County-level Democratic vote (Republican/Democrat) CA 1950 (Nixon/Douglas) CT 1950 (Talbot/McMahon) (1) -4.36 -0.29 3.46 0.01 -0.52 1.84 (2.64) (2.30) (1.93) (2.27) (3.31) - (2.12) -1.43 1.34 - -1.78 1.13 4. 6.53* (2.65) - - -1.08 -2.75 2.98 3.34 (1.93) (2.65) (3.25) (4.31) -1.62 3. 72** (1.41) 3. 3.82 3. -1.31 49 8. 3. 3. 5. 32** (1.99) 45 .0** (4.18) 15,915 1.97 (2.77) 58** (3.15) 53* (1.59) 80# (2.06) 4. 66** (1.79) (2.66) 46* (1.65) 15,915 (2.09) (4.95) 68# (2.06) .1** (0.64) 3.04 7.93* (3.89) -1.90 (2.63) 5. 6.85* (3.40) 3. (1.53) 10.50** (3.48) 05* (2.06) - 86* (1.49) (2.65) - 10.20** (3.43) -1.10 (1.06) 5. 98** (2.08) 8.91** (3.31) 4. -1.97 0.49 5. - 27* (1.96) 15.7** (4.13) (2.45) 34** (1.75) 11.50** (2.90) (2.03) - 4.20** (1.60) 40** (1.66) - 5.87# (3.03) Constant 6.60** (1.81) (1.90) 8.87** (2.65) CT 1952 (Purtell/Benton) N -3.30 5.12** (1.16) 8.20** (3.11) WA 1952 (Cain/Jackson) - 0.21 AZ 1952 (Goldwater/McFarland) MO 1952 (Kern/Symington) - (5.97) (1.52) MI 1952 (Potter/Moody) -3.42 (5) (4.42) MD 1950 (Butler/Tydings) IN 1952 (Jenner/Schricker) (4) (4.48) (1.04) MO 1950 (Donnell/Hennings) (3) 13.7** (3.39) IL 1950 (Dirksen/Lucas) IN 1950 (Capehart/Campbell) (2) 1950-1964 4. 15,915 6. 01* (1.87) 78** (2.08) 4.25 2.13 (2.77) (3.22) 7. 25# (3.79) 9. 56** (3.24) 8. 22* (3.34) 9,309 10 .30** (3.56) 9,309 R2 0.430 0.555 0.667 0.795 0.811 SER 9.45 8.36 7.23 5.39 5.18 Year effects X X X X County effects X X X X Incumbency variables X X X Prior vote X X X X X Challenger quality OLS estimates. Robust standard errors clustered at the state-year in parentheses. Observations are county years. ** p<0.01, * p<0.05, # p<0.1 Table 4: Did McCarthy hurt the Democrats he targeted? Comparisons to other Democratic Candidates for Office Target Sen. Republican State Target Sen. Vote Democrat State-level Vote % Downballot Vote—Avg. Pres. House Gov. % % % % Dem. Dem. Dem. Dem. 35 Name % Name CA Nixon 59 Douglas 41 49 CT Talbot 47 McMahon (i) 52 50 IL Dirksen 54 Lucas (i) 46 IN Capehart (i) 53 Campbell 46 MD Butler 53 Tydings (i) 46 MO Donnell (i) 46 Hennings 54 AZ Goldwater 51 McFarland (i) 49 CT Purtell 53 Benton (i) IN Jenner (i) 52 MI Potter MO WA Avg. Vote % % Dem. Diff. 1950 44 46 49 46 54 50 43 56 42 -1 50 2 46 0 46 0 49 -3 56 -2 46 3 45 -1 1952 42 51 44 44 46 Schricker 47 41 43 44 43 4 51 Moody (i) 49 48 44 47 50 47 2 Kem (i) 46 Symington 54 52 49 52 53 52 2 Cain (i) 44 Jackson 56 48 45 47 47 47 9 51 49 50 44 49 45 47 1 Avg. Non-intervention States 47 54 44 57 56 51 NA Difference 2 -4 0 -8 -11 -4 NA Avg. 53 40 (i) indicates incumbency. State-level level races include lieutenant governor, attorney general, secretary of state, and state treasurer races where available. The presidential Democratic percentage in the secondlast row is the average of state averages. Election returns are from ourcampaigns.com (accessed August 6, 2012).